浅谈高校扩招对大学毕业生收入的影响--基于人力资本的角度

改革开放以来，国内外经济的迅速发展以及日益严峻的竞争形势对高素质人才的需求量前所未有。高校扩招政策的制定正是响应这一需求的应时之举，在施行之初为国家的经济发展培养了大量高素质的劳动力。但是在30年后的今天，高校扩招却引发大学毕业生诸如“就业难”、“收入低”、“收入差距大”等问题，使高校扩招政策遭到越来越多的质疑。针对这一现状，运用人力资本的相关理论对之进行分析解释，并由此得出了一些启示。     

浅谈高技能人才的现状、需求与培养对策

目前,由于我国的教育体制、技能人才的工资福利待遇以及对技能人才的评价、激励、流动机制等问题,使高技能人才严重短缺,造成劳动力市场供需矛盾十分突出。加快培训社会急需的高技能人才是一件刻不容缓的战略大事。我们可以从构筑高技能人才培养基地、创新教育、改进高技能人才培养模式以及建立健全高技能人才培养的保障政策和措施着手来加快对高技能人才的培养。造就数以亿万计的高素质的劳动者来推动国家社会经济发展速度和提高国际竞争能力。     

冲击世界未来的能源问题：油价低迷走势及其对国际关系的影响

本文介绍了非政府机构美国外交关系委员会亚洲能源和安全研究项目组关于世界未来2 0年石油供应将持续保持低价的论点 ,这对世界石油供应短缺的预测提出了挑战。该项研究认为 ,这对美国对外关系政策和国家安全政策也构成了严峻的挑战     

获得美国科学与工程博士学位的中国留学生回流状况分析

获得科学和工程(SE)博士学位的高素质人才,历来是国际人才竞争的主要对象。基于多方面统计数据,对获得美国SE博士学位的中国留学生在美国滞留及回流中国的现状及趋势进行介绍和分析,得出:2008年金融危机后,美国对全球高层次人才的吸引力在总体上得到进一步增强;我国SE博士学位获得者滞留美国的比例有所下降,呈现出不同于日本、韩国、巴西等其他国家的情形。建议我国在制定下一阶段人才吸引政策时,着重关注尚处于职业发展初期的、年轻且仍然滞留海外的博士学位获得者。     

全球量子人才政策研究

本文对美国等主要国家的量子人才政策进行了研究,发现这些国家的量子人才存在较大缺口。这些国家从增加基数和提高能力两方面入手,提出了人才可持续发展的主要措施,包括:早期教育和科普唤醒全社会的量子意识,良好量子教育生态打造人才蓄水池,研发基地或研发中心实现公私合作人才培养,人才引进与人才国际化推动思想流动。我国作为全球量子研究的重要力量,需要在早期教育、科普、教产融合等方面加强政策指导。     

对农村富余劳动力转移的探讨

农村富余劳动力转移是解决“三农”问题的一项重要任务,而当前农村富余劳动力的转移受到了许多因素的制约,国家通过政策和资金支持解决了不少问题,但文章认为这些政策支持是外生因素,提高劳动力素质是解决农村富余劳动力转移的内生因素和长久之策,而提高劳动力素质关键在农村职业教育。     

中国未来就业严峻形势会缓解吗——质疑社科院人口所研究报告

中国社科院人口与劳动经济研究所日前发布的研究报告认为,2009年将成为我国劳动力过剩向劳动力短缺转变的拐点.这一结论引起广泛讨论,正反意见都有.劳动力过剩还是短缺,是国家最基本的国情.对其正确的判断,事关重大.因为它直接关乎宏观经济政策的制定.我们认为,劳动力从过剩向短缺的拐点不会这么快到来,未来15年就业压力都很大.扩大就业依然是宏观经济政策最为核心的目标.     

对农村富余劳动力转移的探讨

农村富余劳动力转移是解决"三农"问题的一项重要任务,而当前农村富余劳动力的转移受到了许多因素的制约,国家通过政策和资金支持解决了不少问题,但文章认为这些政策支持是外生因素,提高劳动力素质是解决农村富余劳动力转移的内生因素和长久之策,而提高劳动力素质关键在农村职业教育.     

对县域劳动力市场变化情况的调查——以河南省唐河县为例

在当前和未来一个较长的时期内,就业形势依然严峻,就业和再就业任务将依然繁重。就业总量虽然实现了增长,但城镇新生劳动力和农村剩余劳动力的转移仍将是难解的课题。文章在对河南省唐河县劳动力市场价格结构与变化趋势进行调查分析的基础上,提出了相关政策建议。     

对我国人力资源管理与开发的思考

2l世纪是知识经济时代，知识经济时代的竞争将是人才的竞争。为了迎接知识经济的挑战，西方国家纷纷加强本国人力资源的开发和建设，采取各种手段掠夺国外高素质的人才。我国目前的人力资源状况不能适应经济发展的需要，为此我们要确立以人力资源优先开发的战略，加大人力资源的开发力度，逐步实现由普通劳动力大国向人才大国转变；加快建立有     

Tuition Fees and the Dual Income Tax: The Optimality of the Nordic Income Tax System Reconsidered

Abstract. We examine the optimal tax and education policy in the case of a dual income tax. Incorporating an educational sector and endogenous capital taxation, we show that the results in Nielsen and Sørensen's study are vulnerable with respect to assumptions on the elasticity of unskilled labor supply. Tax progressivity results residually, whereas educational policy guarantees an optimal tax wedge on, but not necessarily efficiency in, educational investment. The less elastic are the unobservable educational investment and skilled labor (the latter relative to unskilled labor supply), and the more educational policy cares about the skilled labor supply, the more progressive the tax system will be. Education will be subsidized on a net basis if the complementarity effect on the skilled labor supply is strong and important; however, there is also an offsetting substitutability effect of the unskilled labor supply at play.     

税收对城镇居民劳动供给影响的实证分析

针对中国现阶段就业形势,运用计量经济学的方法,建立税收对中国城镇居民劳动供给的回归模型。在中国现阶段的经济环境中,对劳动要素征税会增加城镇居民的劳动供给,可通过创造良好的经济增长环境促使经济与就业同步增长,利用税收政策促进就业增长。     

延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证，本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下，模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步，本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据，对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计，继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上，在延迟退休年龄政策下，隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时，女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响，收入增长率越低，或收入风险越高，她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈；制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响，子女收入增长率越高，劳动参与的概率越低。     

Work costs and nonconvex preferences in the estimation of labor supply models

Works costs have not been adequately handled in labor supply estimation, likely due to their complexity. We show that, if work costs are not accounted for in the budget and time constraints in a structural labor supply model, they will be subsumed into the data generating preferences. Even if underlying preferences over consumption and leisure are convex, the presence of unobservable work costs can make these preferences appear nonconvex. However, we show that, under plausible conditions, policy relevant calculations, such as estimates of the effect of tax changes on labor supply and deadweight loss measures, are not affected by the fact that estimated preferences incorporate work costs.     

The Impact of Income Taxation on the Labor Supply of Part-time and Full-time Workers

This paper estimates the effect of income taxation on the labor supply of part-time and full-time workers in the United States. Using a model that incorporates the endogeneity of the net wage rate and the virtual income, and correcting for self-selection into part-time and full-time jobs, the results indicate that part-time workers are relatively more responsive to changes in income tax than full-time workers. Estimated wage elasticities are relatively larger for part-time than for full-time workers.The simulation results indicate that income tax has a disincentive effect on both part-time and full-time workers, with part-time and full-time workers reducing their labor supply by 0.87 and 0.58 hours, respectively, if a 5% tax is imposed. However, the percentage reduction in hours of work is very small, and a tax policy may have little effect on the labor supply of workers.The results seem to suggest that female and black part-time workers are more likely to drop out of the labor force at higher levels of income tax. It also tests the hypothesis that the labor supply behavior of parttime and full-time workers differs.The test results indicate that the determinants of the labor supply of part-time workers are different from those of full-time workers. It is noted that there is a significant difference between the labor supply of male part-time and female parttime workers, as well as between the black part-time and white part-time workers. In order to reduce voluntary unemployment in market activities among married females and blacks, the government can encourage part-time work by sponsoring legislation or instituting a scheme that will allow part-time workers to pay relatively less in payroll taxes.     

Uncertainty, Commitment, and Optimal Taxation

This paper examines the optimal tax design problem in the presence of wage uncertainty. The wage has a continuous distribution, individuals are ex ante identical, preferences are separable in labor supply and goods, public policy aims at providing the population with social insurance, and the only restriction on the tax instruments is that emanating from lack of public observability of realized wages and labor supplies. We show that optimal tax structures depend crucially on whether it is labor supply or goods that consumers have to commit to before the resolution of uncertainty. Specifically, we prove that, in the absence of commitment, the social insurance problem collapses to the traditional optimal tax problem. Second, if labor supply is precommitted, it would be possible to effect a first-best outcome. Third, commitment to goods would make indirect taxation a useful instrument of tax policy even in the presence of a general income tax; it requires differential tax treatment of committed and noncommitted goods. Finally, if preferences are separable between the two types of goods, precommitted goods must be taxed at a uniform rate lower than that on the noncommitted goods.     

The New Home Economics at Colombia and Chicago

When Jacob Mincer and Gary Becker started the New Home Economics (NHE) at Columbia University in the early 1960s, they expanded on the field of family and consumption economics that Hazel Kirk and Margaret Reid began in the early 1920s. This paper studies forty years of household economics, the decisions that household members make regarding any allocation of resources. These decisions may regard consumption, labor supply, transportation, fertility, or health. A review of the history of the NHE shows that Jacob Mincer's original contribution tends to be underestimated. This paper also argues that the growth of the NHE benefited from the concentration of talent at Columbia, organizational support, the diversity of a student body that included many talented women, the ideological commitments that students, many of them married, had for the study of home production, a departmental policy de-emphasizing gender-related politics, and relatively high levels of civility.     

Sectoral labor adjustment and monetary policy in a small open economy

This paper studies the welfare implications of sectoral labor adjustment cost in a two-sector small open economy model with sticky prices. We find that, when the economy faces external shocks, if monetary policy can stabilize the real economy, then sectoral labor market adjustment cost will lead to welfare loss. However, if monetary policy such as fixed exchange rates cannot stabilize real variables, then some degree of labor market friction will improve welfare instead and the gain will be significant. As a result, the welfare gap between flexible exchange rates and fixed exchange rates decreases with sectoral labor market friction. This is because the friction can offset some of the nominal rigidity and become a substitute for monetary policy to stabilize the real economy.     

Modeling regional labor markets in Germany: insights not only for German policy makers

This paper develops an econometric model for studying the structure of regional labor markets. We estimate the model for three representative Western German federal states. The simulation results of these heterogeneous states reveal substantial structural differences in the short as well as the long-run. These differences impact on labor demand and labor supply and, hence, call for investigating demand and supply of labor instead of merely the unemployment rate. The revealed commonalities and differences may help regional as well as national policy makers to formulate policies tailored at the specific needs of regional labor markets.     

Aging, Public Budgets, and the Need for Policy Reform

Projections show that, without policy changes, population aging will lead to unsustainable developments in public budgets. Various policy options to address this challenge are reviewed. Particular emphasis is given to the incentives to retire early and the programs that generate these incentives. The requirements for labor markets to absorb an added supply of older workers are discussed.