我国税收结构与经济增长关系的实证检验

根据我国1985～2008年样本数据,利用多元线性回归模型对我国税收结构与经济增长的关系进行实证检验,结果表明:流转税、所得税(尤其是个人所得税)份额的增加有利于人均GDP的增长,财产税的经济效应尚未体现,宏观税负和赤字融资的增加已经抑制了人均GDP的增长。目前我国需要进一步完善税制,加强征收管理,提高所得税份额,减少债务融资规模。     

Optimal International Taxation and Growth Rate Convergence: Tax Competition vs. Coordination

Optimal international taxation and its implications for convergence in long run income growth rates are analyzed in the context of an endogenously growing world economy with perfect capital mobility. Under tax competition (i) the residence principle will maximize national welfare; (ii) the optimal long run tax rate on capital incomes from various sources will be zero in all countries; and (iii) long term per capita income growth rates will be equalized across countries. Under tax coordination, (i) becomes irrelevant while (ii) and (iii) will continue to hold. In other words, optimal tax policies are growth-equalizing with and without international policy coordination. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Understanding multidimensional tax systems

Income tax systems are multidimensional, and ignoring their non-rate aspects can introduce bias into cross-country empirical estimation of the impact of taxation on economic outcomes. We analyze 10 non-rate tax system aspects, codified based on recent reports published by the Organisation for Co-operation and Development. We find that a single factor (which we call Dispersed Responsibility), related to the role of taxpayers and third parties in tax collection, can reasonably summarize the cross-country covariation, and offer it as a parsimonious measure of non-rate tax system dimensions for future empirical analysis. We also ascertain that a standard measure of trust in government is positively associated with greater administrator coverage and administrative assessment, as well as more serious sanctions for non-compliance. Ethnic heterogeneity, individualism, and a history of external conflict also can explain certain aspects of tax systems. We find that countries with greater trust in government score lower on Dispersed Responsibility. Finally, we find that adding a measure of the number of tax authority employees can eliminate the otherwise significant positive estimated coefficient of GDP per capita on the tax level, and attracts a significant positive correlation itself, suggesting that the extent of tax administration and enforcement is part of the story that explains the enduring statistical regularity between tax levels and per capita income.     

Global-scale assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity

This paper presents an approach of combining biophysical, social, and economic factors for spatially explicit assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity at a global scale over the period of 2000–2020 under a certain scenario. In doing that, two indicators, namely per capita food availability and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), were selected to cover the four dimensions of food security, with the former representing the status of food availability and stability, and the latter reflecting the situation of food accessibility and affordability. These two indicators were then linked to an integrated modeling framework. Under this framework, a GIS-based EPIC model was adopted to estimate the potential yields of different crop types under a given biophysical and agricultural management environment, a crop choice decision model was used to model the changes in crop areas through tracking the crop choice decisions, and the IFPSIM model was utilized to evaluate the crop price in the international market. Based on these two indicators, the potential risks of food insecurity were assessed with a spatial resolution of six arc-minutes. The results show that both changes in per capita food availability and changes in per capita GDP during 2000–2020 vary across regions worldwide. Some regions such as China, most eastern European countries, and most southern American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation. On the contrary, certain regions such as southern Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future. In these regions, both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Although most developed countries will also experience both a decrease in per capita food availability and a decrease in per capita GDP, these countries are likely to be food-secure due to their higher income and purchasing power.     

Personal Income Taxes in Developing Countries

Comparative work on income taxes in developing countries hascommonly looked at average tax rates. These rates are oftenconstructed by dividing revenue collections by some measureof private or personal income. Recent controversies have, however,focused on the incentive effects of marginal tax rates. Thisarticle develops and applies a simple methodology to comparemarginal official tax rates across a sample of fifty developingcountries. As would be expected given differences in fiscalcapacity, the poorest and the lower-middle-income countriesimpose relatively low marginal rates, and the rates for theupper-middle-income and developed countries are higher. Conversely,several low-and lower-middle-income countries' tax thresholdsstart at income levels which are low relative to their meanincome when compared with those of developed countries. Theresults warn against trying to derive information on the disincentiveeffect of a country's tax schedule from the highest marginalrate; our data show that this is not an accurate indicator ofoverall disincentive effects.     

Why Are Mothers Working Longer Hours in Austria than in Germany? A Comparative Microsimulation Analysis*

Labour force participation rates of mothers in Austria and Germany are similar; however, full‐time employment rates are much higher among Austrian mothers. In order to find out to what extent these differences can be attributed to differences in the tax‐transfer system, we perform a comparative microsimulation exercise. After estimating structural labour supply models for both countries, we interchange two important institutional characteristics of the two countries ‐ namely, (i) the definition of the tax unit within the personal income tax and (ii) the parental leave benefit scheme. As our analysis shows, differences in mothers’employment patterns can partly be explained by the different tax systems: while Germany has a system of joint taxation with income splitting for married couples, Austria taxes everyone individually, which leads to lower marginal tax rates for secondary earners than in the German system.     

Tax Reform and Employment in Europe

The purpose of this paper is to investigate to what extent modifications of tax systems between 1985 and 1992 within major parts of the European Union contributed to changes in the labour market. The principal countries under investigation are Germany, Italy, France and the United Kingdom, and the method of investigation is the numerical simulation of a multi-country general equilibrium model. Changes in VAT rates and in the personal income tax schedule are investigated. We conclude that a non-trivial part of the labour market changes may be due to reactions of the market to changes in these tax rates.     

The Stability of Tax Elasticities over the Business Cycle in European Countries

We estimate short‐ and long‐run tax elasticities that capture the relationship between changes in national income and tax revenue. We show that the short‐run tax elasticity changes according to the business cycle. We estimate a two‐state Markov‐switching regression on a novel data set of tax policy reforms in 15 European countries from 1980 to 2013, showing that the elasticities during booms and recessions are statistically (and often economically) different. The elasticities of personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, indirect taxes and social contributions tend to be larger during recessions. Estimates of long‐run elasticities are in line with existing literature.     

Corporate tax revenues in OECD countries

This paper studies variation among OECD countries in the size of corporate income tax revenues relative to GDP over the time period 1979–2002. A decomposition explains such variation as a function of the statutory tax rate, the breadth of the tax base, corporate profitability, and the share of the corporate sector in GDP. Empirical results indicate a parabolic relationship between tax rates and revenues, implying a revenue-maximizing corporate income tax rate of 33% for the whole sample. This revenue-maximizing rate is found to decrease as economies are smaller and more integrated with the world economy. JEL Classification H25, H87     

Does convergence matter if it takes 100 years? Different scenarios of convergence

This paper attempts to show that the income gap between rich and poor countries cannot be eliminated with the current international policies. Different scenarios are discussed. It would take 130 years for the Congo, 203 years for Eritrea and 103 years for low-income countries to reach to the current average per capita income of Norway. To equalize the overall per capita income levels of high and low-income countries from now until the year 2020, the latter group would have to grow 20 percent. These values show that current economic policies are insufficient to create economic parity among the world's nations. To do so would require radical changes in current domestic and international economic policy.     

Using Financial Accounting Data to Examine the Effect of Foreign Operations Located in Tax Havens and Other Countries on U.S. Multinational Firms' Tax Rates

This paper investigates the effect tax havens and other foreign jurisdictions have on the income tax rates of multinational firms based in the United States. We develop a new regression methodology using financial accounting data to estimate the average worldwide, federal, and foreign tax rates on worldwide, federal, and foreign pretax book income for a large sample of U.S. firms with and without tax haven operations. We find that on average U.S. firms that disclosed material operations in at least one tax haven country have a worldwide tax burden on worldwide income that is approximately 1.5 percentage points lower than firms without operations in at least one tax haven country. Our results also show that U.S. firms face a 4.4% current federal tax rate on foreign income whether or not they have tax haven operations. Finally, we find that U.S. firms with operations in some tax haven countries have higher federal tax rates on foreign income than other firms. This result suggests that in some cases, tax haven operations may increase U.S. tax collections at the expense of foreign country tax collections.     

Assessing the international spillover effects of capital income taxation

Changes in capital taxes by one economy spill onto other economies with internationally mobile capital. We evaluate these impacts using a two-region, intertemporal general equilibrium model. The foreign economy's unilateral reduction in corporate income taxation has positive but small effects on U.S. welfare. In contrast, unilateral reductions in personal income taxation impose large negative spillovers. The differences result from CIT being source-based and PIT residence-based. The CIT cut reduces tax burdens to U.S. residents who invest abroad, while the PIT cut reduces foreigners' tax burdens only. Through general equilibrium adjustments neglected in simpler models, the PIT cut lowers U.S. residents' welfare.     

Earnings management induced by tax planning: The case of Portuguese private firms

In Portugal, a concept of taxable income associated closely with reported accounting income is used to determine the tax liability of firms. Recently, the Portuguese government legislated to introduce a system of “special payment on account” (SPA). Firms were required to pay an amount of income tax in advance that varied between a promulgated minimum and maximum. Although such a tax is unique to Portugal, other countries have tax arrangements that are similar in intent. Thus, Portugal's experience with the introduction of a SPA regime is likely to be instructive in fiscal policy deliberations in other settings.We assess the extent to which the SPA tax policy measure encouraged private Portuguese companies to manipulate earnings. We find that earnings manipulation appears to have been motivated by desire to minimize SPA. Firms whose estimate of SPA liability fell within the range of minimum and maximum limits of the SPA had higher levels of discretionary accruals than firms whose estimate was (equal to or) above the ceiling imposed by the new legislation. Firms with higher rates of income tax were found to reduce earnings to near zero. Firms with higher average income tax rates were more likely to manipulate their earnings than other firms.Our results reinforce the importance for auditors, stakeholders, and tax policy advisors to be alert to the close association between tax planning considerations and reported earnings in their monitoring, analysis, and policy advising activities.     

税制结构演变的国际经验与中国展望

税制结构的演变受到经济因素、政府政策目标、国家和社会关系的影响和约束,具有普遍的规律性。考察世界各国税制结构的演变历程可以发现,发达国家税制结构和税种结构均比较稳定,直接税占比高但税种分散,货物与劳务税仍为最大的单一税种;发展中国家税制结构相对稳定但税种结构呈趋势性变化,个人所得税和企业所得税均稳中有升。个人所得税和社会保障缴款是国家间税制结构差异的主要来源,企业所得税负担的国际竞争面临深刻变化。当前我国已基本形成了双主体税制结构,直接税收入中所得类税收、企业主体税收占比较高。鉴于此,我国应在强化均贫富、促消费的目标下,提高个人所得税比重、完善财产税制度、加强自然人税源管理;在新经济增长模式下,对增值税进行适应性调整和税负优化。     

Are Multinational Corporate Tax Rules as Important as Tax Rates?

Previous research has documented the influence of statutory tax rates on international firms' effective tax rates, or ETRs. We add to this body of research by examining common factors of the income tax base, which affects ETRs. Specifically, this study examines the determinants of effective tax rates for publicly traded companies based in European Union (EU) countries. The time period examined is after 2004, when all EU firms were required to use standardized accounting principles under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). We find that, across EU countries, such factors are relatively consistent with factors found in studies of U.S. companies' effective tax rates, which include inventory, leverage, depreciation tax shield, and R&D intensity. We also find that the presence of country book-tax conformity rules increases effective rates. Importantly, our finding that such tax base (or rule) effects are at least as important as rate effects adds to the international debate about uneven tax structures around the globe.     

论个人所得税的二元课税模式

由于综合个人所得税制在理论基础和实际征管方面都存在着难以克服的困难,发端于北欧国家的对劳动所得适用累进税率而对资本所得适用比例税率的二元个人所得税制就成为一种较为现实而理想的模式,在国际上正得到日益广泛的支持。我国近年提出的综合与分类相结合的个人所得税制模式近似于二元所得税制,应当作为个人所得税改革的长远目标,但还需对具体制度安排进行恰当的设计。     

The effects of tax rate changes on tax bases and the marginal cost of public funds for Canadian provincial governments

The efficiency losses from taxation vary directly with the responsiveness of a government??s tax bases to tax-rate increases. We estimate the dynamic responses of tax bases to changes in tax rates using aggregate panel data from Canadian provinces over the period 1972 to 2006. Our preferred empirical results indicate that a one percentage point increase in corporate income, personal income, and sales tax rates is associated with a 3.67, 0.76, and 1.17 percent reduction in their respective tax bases in the short run. The corresponding long-run tax base semi-elasticity estimates are higher: ?13.60, ?3.63, and ?3.18, respectively. We use the tax base elasticity estimates to calculate the marginal cost of public funds (MCF) for the provinces?? three major taxes. Our computations indicate that the corporate income had the highest MCF and that the sales tax had the lowest MCF in all provinces in 2006. The MCF for the personal income tax ranged from 1.44 in Alberta to 3.81 in Quebec. Our results imply that there would have been significant welfare gains in 2006 from reductions in provincial corporate income tax rates. Our computations also indicate that the equalization grant formula may reduce the perceived MCF of the provinces that receive these grants, and that increases in provincial corporate and personal income taxes can cause significant reductions in federal tax revenues.     

Income Shifting in the Spanish Dual Income Tax*

Based on a model of behavioural response to taxes, and using the Taxpayers Panel from the Instituto de Estudios Fiscales for the period 1999–2009, we analyse whether the dual nature of the Spanish personal income tax (PIT), reinforced by the 2007 reform, has influenced taxpayers’ behaviour, causing them to convert part of their ‘general income’ (from labour, real estate or economic activities) into ‘savings income’ (from movable capital or capital gains). We also extend the analysis of income shifting and study whether Spanish taxpayers also responded to the different tax treatments given to the two types of savings income (from movable capital and capital gains) until 2007, transforming savings income from one type to the other. The results of our study demonstrate three facts. First, Spanish taxpayers did respond to the different tax rates, shifting income from the general base to different forms of savings, especially capital gains. The highest‐income individuals and the self‐employed and business owners are the groups where this behaviour was most marked. Second, the self‐employed and business owners also turned income from movable assets into capital gains, guided by their different tax rates. And third, we find signs of ‘anticipation’ and ‘learning’ effects caused by the 2007 tax reform. We believe that the results obtained will enrich the growing literature on income shifting.     

Corporate tax policy and incorporation in the EU

In Europe, declining corporate tax rates have come along with rising tax-to-GDP ratios. This paper explores to what extent income shifting from the personal to the corporate tax base can explain these diverging developments. We exploit a panel of European data on legal form of business to analyze income shifting via incorporation. The results suggest that the effect is significant and large. It implies that the revenue effects of lower corporate tax rates—possibly induced by tax competition—will partly show up in lower personal tax revenues rather than lower corporate tax revenues. Simulations suggest that between 12% and 21% of corporate tax revenue can be attributed to income shifting. Income shifting is found to have raised the corporate tax-to-GDP ratio by some 0.25% points since the early 1990s. This research was carried out while Ruud de Mooij was a visiting fellow at DG ECFIN in October 2006. The views expressed in this Article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the European Commission.     

与香港个人所得税的比较及启示

香港的“入息税”采用分类税制 ,与大陆的个人所得税相类似。若我们能结合国情 ,研究和借鉴发达国家或地区个人所得税制度的有益经验 ,相信对改革现行的个人所得税制、充分发挥其在收入再分配方面的作用定会有所裨益