中国崛起背景下的涉外金融安全问题与对策

中国崛起背景下的涉外金融安全问题,主要表现在三个方面,即资本账户开放的安全问题、外汇储备资产或外汇资产的安全问题、国际支付结算体系的安全问题。导致中国涉外金融安全问题的外部原因是本币不具备储备货币的国际地位,需要从外部获得储备货币,必然缺乏安全;人民币汇率的信用依靠美元等储备货币背书,中国经济崛起也曾经依赖美元顺差;美国可以利用美元账户对资金、资产交易、跨境支付结算等,实施行政处罚、限制、冻结等制裁,乃至剔除出账户系统。内部原因是中国经济崛起,美国要打压和制裁;金融开放如果在汇率制度选择、外汇管制和管控上处理不当,允许储备货币资金完全自由进出而无约束,则必然存在金融危机的可能;国际收支失衡导致涉外金融缺乏安全。解决涉外金融安全问题应从四个方面着手:一是通过货币互换和多元化投资等方式保障外汇(储备)资产安全;二是通过提倡主权货币计价、支付、结算、融资,以及开展相关制度设计等方式建设好交易和支付结算系统;三是把握好资本账户开放;四是做好人民币国际化的基础工作。     

The demand for safe assets in emerging economies and global imbalances: New empirical evidence

Recent economic theory has singled out mismatches between the supply and the demand of safe financial assets in emerging countries as drivers of international capital flows and, ultimately, global current account imbalances. This paper assesses empirically the contribution of such “search for safe assets” to the size and composition of emerging economies’ international asset portfolios. Excess demand for safe assets in financially less‐developed countries would imply that these countries hold disproportionately high shares of their total portfolios in foreign assets. Moreover, financially less‐developed countries would hold disproportionately high shares of their foreign portfolios in financially developed countries, which are the major producers of ostensibly safe assets. This paper finds little empirical support for these predictions. Financially less‐developed countries allocate a larger proportion of their total holdings to domestic assets. Even when focusing on their foreign portfolios, there is no evidence of a general bias towards the assets of financially developed countries. Overall, asset mismatches do not appear to explain the asset allocation of financially less‐developed countries.     

2008年美元升值原因探析

2008年,随着美国金融危机的深度蔓延,美国各经济实体均受到波及,然而美元汇率却一改过去6年持续下跌的颓势,大幅升值。美国政府积极的鼓励措施,金融危机致使美国国内投资资金和套息资金的大量回流,金融恐怖平衡等都是导致美元升值的主要原因。     

The arrival of the Euro and its implications for Asia

The third stage of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) commenced on January 1, 1999 with the launch of the European single currency, the euro. The first round of participants comprises 11 of the 15 European Union (EU) nations, dubbed “Euroland.” The potential implications of EMU for Asia are immense. The euro's emergence as an international currency and its impact on Asia can be assessed in 3 different domains: (1) as a medium of exchange for Europe's trade with Asia; (2) as a store of value in stocks and bonds in world capital markets; and (3) as part of official foreign exchange reserves of Asian central banks. Our analysis suggests that there is potential for the euro to play a bigger role in EU-Asia trade links, which will be underpinned by the collective importance of Euroland as a much-enlarged trading and investment partner for Asia. However, in the short term at least, Asian equity markets are unlikely to benefit from significant inflows of capital from the EU as the former have been decimated by the region's financial crisis. As for Asian bond markets, rapid deterioration of sovereign ratings of countries in the region over the past 12 months would make it difficult for Asian companies to raise funds through euro-denominated debt instruments. As for official foreign exchange reserves, the bulk of Asian reserves is currently held in US dollar assets. Judging from Asian trade and debt figures, it seems unlikely that the euro would challenge the US dollar as a reserve currency any time in the near future. Nevertheless, in the longer term, the euro's introduction could make it easier for Asian central banks to diversify their reserves from the greenback to the euro. The internationalization of the euro is likely to happen only gradually, whether in terms of international trade denomination and settlement, denominating international financial assets, or as a reserve currency. Since the magnitude of shock that the single European currency would bring to the international monetary system is still unknown, only very tentative conclusions for the impact on Asian countries can be drawn at this point in time.     

债务经济、美元回流与全球经济失衡——兼论后危机时代中国的应对

金融危机予美国经济以重创,美国迫切需要在全球转嫁其损失,以实现其所谓的全球经济再平衡。文章探讨了美国如何借助美元这一霸权货币,通过美元的国际循环在全球进行债务扩散,以及由此造成全球经济结构失衡的内在机理。研究发现,当前国际分工格局的错位导致了美国巨大的贸易逆差,美国的高赤字率和低储蓄率是造成经济失衡的根源;美国通过美元输出及美元回流在全球进行债务扩散及债务转嫁;经济结构的严重失衡及美联储量化宽松的货币政策导致超发货币,这必然加速美元危机的到来。后危机时代经济失衡的治理必须加强中国等新兴国家的作用。     

Impact of the Financial Crisis on Cross‐Border Mergers and Acquisitions and Concentration in the Global Banking Industry

The global banking industry has seen dramatic changes in the past 40 years. Most recently, the financial liberalization of emerging markets and the global financial crisis have significantly impacted the market share of banks worldwide. This article investigates the impact of the 2007–2008 financial crisis on cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the banking sector and emphasizes the role of emerging‐market banks in the postcrisis consolidation trend. Using M&A data and concentration data over the period 2000–2013, our analysis indicates that the financial crisis had a significant impact on worldwide M&As, especially on the direction of the transactions. Emerging‐market banks appear to be major acquirers in the postcrisis period, targeting both neighboring countries and developed economies in Europe. We also observe an increase in bank concentration in developed markets most hit by the financial crisis, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, whereas bank concentration decreased in emerging markets. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

人民币国际化的现实路径与机遇

随着中国经济的发展,国际影响力的提高,人民币的国际地位也随之提升,边境贸易助推人民币区域化,货币互换为增加境外人民币存量提供了制度安排,离岸中心为境外人民币提供了服务平台,人民币国际化在各个领域已经形成共识。受全球金融危机的影响,世界关键货币——美元持续疲软,国际能源价格持续下跌,给人民币国际化创造了难得的历史机遇,人民币加速国际化的呼声也越来越高涨。中国应利用人民币升值通道期,推动人民币国际结算功能实现;利用石油价格的下跌期,推动重要能源的人民币国际计价;利用中国全球贸易地位,树立人民币储备货币地位。     

Credit constraints, equity market liberalizations and international trade

This paper provides evidence that credit constraints are an important determinant of international trade flows. I exploit shocks to the availability of external finance and examine the impact of equity market liberalizations on the export behavior of 91 countries in the 1980-1997 period. I show that liberalizations increase exports disproportionately more in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or employ fewer collateralizable assets. This result is not driven by cross-country differences in factor endowments and is independent of simultaneous trade policy reforms. Moreover, it obtains with equal strength in the full panel of countries as well as in both panel and event-study analyses of countries which removed capital controls during the sample period. Finally, the effects of liberalizations are more pronounced in economies with initially less active stock markets, indicating that foreign equity flows may substitute for an underdeveloped domestic financial system. Similarly, opening equity markets has a greater impact in the presence of higher trade costs caused by restrictive trade policies.     

IM ＆ EX, A ROCKY ROAD

Subprime mortgage crisis, which was triggered by a dramatic rise in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in the United States,has interrupted china＇s peaceful rise and has major adverse consequences for banks and financial markets around the globe. Although the direct impact of the subprime crisis is rather small to china＇s economy since the exposure of several national banks to the U.S. subprime lending market is relatively limited, there is no denying that the U.S. subprime crisis has been dragging down world＇s major stocks for months and making it difficult for china＇s foreign trade. It is predictable that the impact of this financial tsunami will shed its shadow on china＇s economy sooner or later. Experts are of the view that China may not be directly hit by the crisis as a result of its strong economic fundamentals, limited exposure to this particular variety of assets,     

Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View1

The international current account imbalances, where the United States has a vast deficit, and several countries, notably Japan, China, Germany and the oil exporters have corresponding surpluses, are usually seen as problems. The argument here is that current account imbalances simply indicate intertemporal trade – the exchange of goods and services for claims. There are likely to be gains from trade of that kind as from ordinary trade. What, then, are the problems? This paper considers five scenarios, notably one where net savings of the surplus countries decline so that the world real interest rate rises, and another where the US fiscal deficit is reduced, so that the world real interest rate falls and there could be a worldwide aggregate demand problem, essentially caused by the high net savings of the surplus countries. The paper reviews the reasons for the large surpluses in terms of savings and investment ratios (especially China) and also discusses the long‐term problem for the United States. While four of the scenarios involve a decline in the dollar, they do not necessarily imply a sudden – and even ‘disruptive’– dollar crisis.     

关于金融战的理解

“金融战”不仅指一个经济体对另一个经济体发动的金融制裁,还包括一个强大的国际金融资本突然对一个金融体系存在严重漏洞的主权国家或关税经济体发动的货币狙击。长期的金融战会引发一个国家的金融危机,摧毁其经济体系,使其经济发展陷入长时间停滞。回顾近几十年的历史,美国非常擅长通过金融战操纵全球经济,从而达成自己的战略目的,其常用的武器是金融制裁。为了在关键时刻能够顺利发动金融制裁,美国还准备了一系列法律依据。美国发动金融战的底气在于美元霸权、支付清算垄断与无可替代的发达金融市场。以美国曾经发动的金融战为样本,对金融战进行一些前瞻性的分析与研究是十分必要的。     

Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis

We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or have few collateralizable assets. Exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries, and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis. The quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention.     

International comparison of household asset allocation: Micro-evidence from cross-country comparisons

Asset allocation, an important part of household finance, attracts constant attention across countries. Due to the differences between countries, asset allocation presents different characteristics in various countries. This paper compares and analyzes the differences in household asset allocation around the world based on the data of 23 developing and developed countries, such as China, the United States, 20 EU countries, and Australia, at the micro-level. This paper finds that in all of these countries, except for the United States, housing assets often occupy a large proportion of household total assets, which we give the name ‘Valuing Housing’, mainly attributed to the high housing value-to-income ratios (especially in developing countries). Further analysis shows that, with the increase in household income, the proportion of housing assets in most countries presents an inverted ‘U' shape, which first increases and then decreases, and where the inflection point appears in the top 20% of households. Also, with increases in income, China, the United States, and some other countries see an increasing proportion of financial assets. The top 20% of households tend to invest in financial assets. In addition, as the ages of household heads increase, the proportion of housing assets tends to first rise and then level off, and that of financial assets tends to first decrease and then level off. The conclusions of this paper help to better understand the differences in the allocation of household assets across countries and explain the underlying causes.     

美国次贷危机对新疆出口贸易的影响

美国次贷危机不仅引发了全球金融市场的剧烈动荡和流动性匮乏,更波及到众多国家的对外贸易发展。作为世界上最大的消费市场,美国次贷危机导致本国经济低迷,在很大程度上对中国出I：1产生了负面影响,对于新疆出口贸易短期内影响微弱,但从长期看将会阻碍新疆出口增长。因此应大力推进新疆地产品出口,实现多元化市场战略以降低次贷危机所带来的负面影响。     

美国“特保案”的政治经济学解析

美国于2009年9月悍然违反国际贸易公平规则对中国输美轮胎"特保";中国迅速"亮剑",对美国部分汽车和肉鸡产品采取反补贴和反倾销调查,由此可能引发一场中美之间甚至世界贸易大战,影响深远。"特保案"的本质是贸易保护主义。面临全球金融危机下新一轮的贸易摩擦,中国出口企业治标治本的对策建议是树立信心和决心,反对"双输"贸易保护行为,促成新的"双赢"贸易规则;精研世贸协定各项条款及国际贸易法,善于借助外国法律全力维护中国企业正当利益;将单纯依靠低价、数量的贸易增长方式转向以质取胜,调整经营策略和结构,扩大内需,实现出口贸易转型升级,提高产品核心竞争力,降低外贸依存度。     

The cross-section of returns in frontier equity markets: Integrated or segmented pricing?

Is asset pricing segmented or integrated in frontier equity markets? To answer this question, we examine the returns on more than 4500 stocks from 22 frontier countries for the years 1997–2018. We evaluate the performance of a few major asset pricing models. We document strong value and momentum effects but find no consistent evidence regarding size, investment, and profitability premia. The recent six-factor model of Fama and French (2018) outperforms other models and best explains the cross-sectional and time-series variation in returns. Our results point to low integration of frontier equities, even after the global financial crisis. Local risk factors explain the behavior of prices much better than their global counterparts do. The low correlation of these risk factors allows augmenting the efficient frontier of an international investor.     

International currency exposures,valuation effects and the global financial crisis

We examine the evolution of international currency exposures, with a particular focus on the 2002–12 period. During the run up to the global financial crisis, there was a widespread shift towards positive net foreign currency positions, such that relatively few countries exhibited the archetypal emerging-market “short foreign currency” position on the eve of the global financial crisis. During the crisis, the upheaval in currency markets generated substantial currency-generated valuation effects — much of which were not reversed. There is some evidence that the distribution of valuation effects was stabilizing in the sense of showing a negative covariation pattern with pre-crisis net foreign asset positions.     

Why do foreigners invest in the United States?

Why are foreigners willing to invest over $2 trillion per year in the United States? This paper tests various hypotheses and finds that standard portfolio allocation models and diversification motives are poor predictors of foreign holdings of U.S. liabilities. Instead, foreigners hold greater shares of their investment portfolios in the United States if they have less developed financial markets. The magnitude of this effect decreases with income per capita. Countries that trade more with the United States also have greater portfolio shares in U.S. equity and bond markets. These results support recent theoretical work on the role of financial development in sustaining global imbalances and have important implications for whether the United States can continue to attract sufficient financing from abroad without major changes in asset prices and returns, especially in bond markets.     

Vehicle currency use in international trade

We explore the major driving forces for currency invoicing in international trade with a simple model and a novel dataset covering 24 countries. We contrasts a “coalescing” effect, where exporters minimize the movements of their prices relative to their competitors', with incentives to hedge macroeconomic volatility and transaction costs. The key determinants of invoice currency choice are industry features and country size, with some role for foreign-exchange bid-ask spreads. The coalescing effect also goes a long way to explaining the well-known dominance of the dollar. Trade flows to the United States are predominantly invoiced in dollar, as foreign exporters face competition with U.S. firms. The use of the dollar in trade flows that do not involve the United States reflects trade in homogeneous products where firms need to keep their price in line with their competitors'.     

Cross-border banking,credit access,and the financial crisis

We study the sensitivity of credit supply to bank financial conditions in 16 emerging European countries before and during the financial crisis. We use survey data on 10,701 applicant and non-applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by positive and negative shocks to the banking system from demand shocks that may vary across lenders. We find strong evidence that firms' access to credit was affected by changes in the financial conditions of their banks. During the crisis firms were more credit constrained if they were dealing with banks that experienced a decline in equity and Tier 1 capital, as well as losses on financial assets. We also find that access to credit reflects the balance sheet conditions of foreign parent banks. The effect of positive and negative shocks to a bank is greater for riskier firms and firms with fewer tangible assets.