Scenario development for corporate planning

The term “scenario” is familiar to those involved in forecasting, but too few people are aware of what exactly a scenario is, or how it can best be developed and applied. The author describes a method developed over several years in response to a need which most forecasting efforts have left unfulfilled. The method enables quantitative and qualitative forecasts to be combined in a manner which can be directly related to an organisation's planning and decision-making processes, and which permits the evaluation of a company's objectives and performance in the light of those forecasts. The analysis of an organisation's likely performance in given scenarios can, in turn, provide a basis for contingency planning.     

Marketers expressing the future: Scenario planning for marketing action

Thomas Friedman exhorts us to imagine the future [1] - we urge marketers to invent the future, to learn the future faster, and to deliver the future earlier. Marketers are asked to develop scenarios about emerging technologies such as broadband wireless but more often than not have no education or training in scenario planning. Also marketers are often stuck in a strategic planning mindset based on successful replication of past marketing strategies. Strategic management and marketing learning has ventured into futures and foresight methodologies, but with strong focus on conventional macroscopic high-level scenario planning methods.This paper positions scenario planning as a method to express the future vision, both tacit and explicit, of business, products and services in a clear succinct story form, to underpin all elements of a marketing strategy (goals, position and execution). The scenario planning for marketing action (SPMA) model is introduced and discussed incorporating eight principles: moderation and time compression; storytelling led new product and service development; customer orientation; iterative dynamic scenarios; complexity science to foster non-linear thinking; risk weighted scenarios; participant hosted scenario workshops; springboard consolidation.The SPMA method was proven and evolved within postgraduate Executive education courses in Sydney and Bangkok from 2003 to 2007. This approach is fundamental for marketers to gain competences in “learning the future faster”, thus possessing capabilities to imagine and invent the future and deliver the future earlier.     

银行理财与资本市场

银行理财是现代银行一项十分重要的中间业务。银行理财业务的发展,不仅大大拓宽了银行的经营范围,增加了银行取得收益的途径,也为资本市场的发展增添了新的活力。该文介绍了银行理财的主要种类及其存在背景,分析了银行理财资金进入资本市场的联结渠道及其制约因素,指出更多的理财资金应进入资本市场,以更好地满足社会投资需求,有关政策应当对理财资金进入资本市场进行鼓励。     

Market competition,management accounting systems and business unit performance

Increasing competition in the market, due to the application of modern manufacturing technology, deregulation of economies, and privatization or corporatization of government owned enterprises, makes decision makers use of management accounting systems more important (Bromwich, 1990). There have been calls for research into the use of management accounting systems under the changing circumstances (Kaplan, 1983; Shank and Govindarajan, 1989; Bromwich, 1990; Bromwich and Bhimani, 1994).This paper reports the results of a study which offers an explanation for the relationship between intensity of market competition and business unit performance, by incorporating into the model managers use of the information provided by the management accounting system (MAS). To assess the relationship, data were collected from 61 business unit managers by way of personal interviews. The results indicate that the intensity of market competition is a determinant of the use of the information which, in turn, is a determinant of business unit performance. In other words, managers use of the information plays a mediating role in the relationship between the intensity of market competition and business unit (BU) performance. An interpretation of the results is that those organizations which use the information can effectively face competition in the market and thereby improve performance.     

Strategic stories: how 3M is rewriting business planning

Virtually all business plans are written as a list of bullet points. Despite the skill or knowledge of their authors, these plans usually aren't anything more than lists of "good things to do." For example: Increase sales by 10%. Reduce distribution costs by 5%. Develop a synergistic vision for traditional products. Rarely do these lists reflect deep thought or inspire commitment. Worse, they don't specify critical relationships between the points, and they can't demonstrate how the goals will be achieved. 3M executive Gordon Shaw began looking for a more coherent and compelling way to present business plans. He found it in the form of strategic stories. Telling stories was already a habit of mind at 3M. Stories about the advent of Post-it Notes and the invention of masking tape help define 3M's identity. They're part of the way people at 3M explain themselves to their customers and to one another. Shaw and his coauthors examine how business plans can be transformed into strategic narratives. By painting a picture of the market, the competition, and the strategy needed to beat the competition, these narratives can fill in the spaces around the bullet points for those who will approve and those who will implement the strategy. When people can locate themselves in the story, their sense of commitment and involvement is enhanced. By conveying a powerful impression of the process of winning, narrative plans can mobilize an entire organization.     

Linking control systems to business unit strategy: impact on performance

Rooted in continguency theory, this paper examines linkages between strategy, incentive bonus system and effectiveness at the strategic business unit (SBU) level within diversified firms. Data from 58 SBUs reveal (1) that greater reliance on long-run criteria as well as subjective (non-formula) approaches for determining the SBU general managers' bonus contributes to effectiveness in the case of “build” SBUs but hampers it in the case of “harvest” SBUs, and (2) that the relationship between extent of reliance on short-run criteria and effectiveness is virtually independent of SBU strategy.     

从供需角度看我国商业银行人民币理财业务的发展

决定人民币理财业务发展的基础力量是市场需求和供给。国内商业银行人民币理财业务从火爆热捧到理性调整再到热销回归的发展轨迹正是供需双方相互作用的反应。文章从需求和供给的角度来分析国内商业银行人民币理财业务的发展,寻找支撑人民币理财业务发展的需求动力,总结我国商业银行人民币理财业务的供给特征,并对今后我国商业银行人民币理财业务的发展提出建议。     

Scenario planning interventions in organizations: An analysis of the causes of success and failure

This paper presents a case analysis of a successful scenario intervention in an organization. This intervention is compared and contrasted with an unsuccessful one reported in Hodgkinson and Wright [Confronting strategic inertia in a top management team: learning from failure, Organization Studies 23 (2002)949-977]. We demonstrate that analysis of the answers given by workshop participants in a pre-intervention interview can be helpful in determining the receptiveness of an organization to a subsequent scenario intervention. We theorize that strategic inertia-characterized by coping patterns of bolstering failing strategy, procrastination (over a strategic dilemma) and buck-passing (the responsibility for the dilemma's resolution), can be caused by the psychological attenuation of the perceived level of environmental threat to the organization, culminating in unconflicted adherence to the currently followed strategy. We contend that the expression of such coping behaviour is antithetical to a subsequent successful scenario exercise since, if the exercise fails to identify an unconflicted strategic alternative, the sharp focus of the scenarios on futures unfavourable to business-as-usual strategy will re-activate the cognitive stress-reduction mechanisms. Strategic inertia will thus be reinforced. We conclude with a review of the implications of our diagnosis for reflective practitioners.Our paper is divided into four sections. In Section 1, we overview writings on inertia in strategic decision making. We pay especial attention to identifying potential causes of inertia. Next, we present Janis and Mann's [Decision Making, Free Press, New York, 1979] views of the psychological processes invoked by conflicted decisions and analyse the relevance of this laboratory-based theory to provide a psychological explanation of strategic inertia. Finally, we briefly describe the scenario intervention process and argue that it contains the potential to overcome strategic inertia. In Section 2, we review an already-published study of an unsuccessful scenario planning intervention, which illustrates the operation of components of Janis and Mann's model. Next, in Section 3, we focus on our own case investigation of a successful scenario planning intervention. The early part of this section documents the “success”, whilst the latter part analyses the causes of the success—again using the components of Janis and Mann's model. We conclude in Section 4, where we compare and contrast the application of Janis and Mann's model to both cases and we demonstrate that application of the model to pre-intervention interview data can aid the practitioner determine, at the outset, whether or not the organizational context will be receptive to the intervention.     

技术和业务整合的新高度

从“数据大集中”的准备阶段，到目前全新的应用系统整合阶段，银行信息化的脉络已经日渐清晰。如今建设核心业务系统成为银行信息化的新热点，在此过程中我们也看到，IT系统与业务部门的整合互动，被提升至前所未有的高度。     

Integrating business strategy,organizational configurations and management accounting systems with business unit effectiveness: a fitness landscape approach

This study adopts a fitness landscape approach to test contingency hypotheses about the relationship between business strategy, organizational configurations, management accounting systems, and business unit effectiveness. Central to this approach is the notion of contingent fit between strategic priorities and its contextual variables. Building on Kauffman’s N-locus, two-state additive fitness model, this study predicts that the degree of contingent fit, defined as the weighted sum of independent fitness contributions of each contextual variables, will have a positive association with business unit effectiveness.Based on a mail survey and personal interviews of 106 business unit managers of publicly held companies listed under consumer goods industry, this study indicates that the degree of contingent fit has a positive association with business unit effectiveness. Further analysis reveals that strategic priorities affect the types of controls and management accounting systems used by the business units.     

Discussion of earnings-based bonus plans and earnings management by business unit managers

Guidry, Leone, and Rock use business unit data from a multinational conglomerate to reexamine whether earnings-based bonus plans are associated with earnings management. By focusing on business unit compensation, the authors increase the power of the tests and control for earnings management incentives provided by stock-based compensation. Questions raised by the study include the generalizability of the findings beyond the sample firm, the economic significance of earnings management, the effect of earnings management on bonus awards, and how group-level incentives to manage earnings interact with incentives at the business unit level.     

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Scenario Planning has been around for more than 30 years and during this period a multitude of techniques and methodologies have developed, resulting in what has been described as a ‘methodological chaos’ which is unlikely to disappear in the near future (A. Martelli, Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (2001)). This is reflected in the fact that literature reveals an abundance of different and at times contradictory definitions, characteristics, principles and methodological ideas about scenarios. It has been suggested that a pressing need for the future of scenarios is amongst other things, to resolve the confusion over ‘the definitions and methods of scenarios’. This paper makes a beginning at this need by tracing the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of the various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted.     

市县级TBS应急预案应用案例

2005年，中国人民银行完成了全国国库会计核算系统（TBS）的内部往来（本辖内与支库之间）与大额支付系统（与全国省以上分库之间）的上线开通工作。该系统采取了全国联网和实时在线业务处理方式，大大提高了国库资金的入库和划拨效率。由于系统采取了实时在线处理方式，原先的TBS应急预案就必须作相应的修改和完善。     

Inflation at the household level

We use scanner data to estimate inflation rates at the household level. Households’ inflation rates have an annual interquartile range of 6.2–9.0 percentage points. Most of the heterogeneity comes not from variation in broadly defined consumption bundles but from variation in prices paid for the same types of goods. Lower-income households experience higher inflation, but most cross-sectional variation is uncorrelated with observables. Households’ deviations from aggregate inflation exhibit only slightly negative serial correlation. Almost all variability in a household’s inflation rate comes from variability in household-level prices relative to average prices, not from variability in aggregate inflation.     

Scenario analysis in interfutures

The interfutures project used a scenario approach and focused on issues of economic development over the next 20 years. The author describes the five main stages of scenario construction and gives a summary of the six scenarios which were finally chosen. The scenarios provide possible boundaries for the world economy in the year 2000. If there are no major discontinuities, most OECD countries are likely to experience structural unemployment, protectionism, and moderate rates of growth throughout the next decade—the outlook for Third-world countries is perhaps more favourable, with growth rates generally higher than in the OECD countries.     

利用现代计量方法提升银行零售业务风险管理水平

零售信贷业务相对公司业务具有笔数多、风险分散、单笔金额小、适合标准化批量作业等特征,因此,基于大数定理的计量方法在我国商业银行零售业务的发展和风险管理中将有广阔的应用空间。此次国际金融危机的爆发源于零售信贷的证券化产品市场,因而在风险管理中正确运用计量方法的重要性日益凸显,也引发了我们对如何进一步完善计量方法的思考与探索。