产出缺口和货币缺口对中国通货膨胀的影响分析

通货膨胀形成的两个重要原因是总需求的过度膨胀和货币供应量的过快增长。利用HP滤波衡量产出缺口和货币缺口,并利用1999—2007年的季度时间数据检验两者对中国通货膨胀的影响。结果表明,产出缺12和货币缺口都是中国通货膨胀的重要原因,且货币缺口对中国通货膨胀的影响远远大于产出缺口影响。     

我国通货膨胀与产出缺口的关系研究

本文利用新凯恩斯宏观经济模型对我国产出缺口进行估计,并基于产出缺口对我国通货膨胀的动态特征进行分析。研究结果表明,产出缺口对通货膨胀具有显著影响,产出缺口变化是通货膨胀率变化的重要原因;负向产出缺口的缩小能引起通货膨胀率的上升,通货膨胀率对产出缺口的反应具有"速度限制"效应;通货膨胀率对正向产出缺口的反应大于负向产出缺口,具有非对称性。因此,应关注产出缺口在调控通货膨胀政策方面的应用价值。     

产出缺口与通胀缺口的动态关联性研究——兼评宏观经济调控执行绩效

本文基于政策损失函数设计了一个新的模型框架,建立了一个不包含预期通货膨胀的反映产出缺口和通胀缺口之间关系的模型,并使用可变参数模型分析产出缺口与通胀缺口的动态关联性,同时评价了1985—2005年问中国宏观经济调控的执行绩效。研究结果表明：（1）通胀缺口对产出缺口的反应系数除了1985、1986两年为负值外,其余年份均为正值,表明通胀缺口的降低有助于抚平产出缺口;（2）通胀缺口对产出缺口的反应系数呈现“凸型”变动模式,并且已经过了波动的顶峰,出现显著下降并逐渐稳定的趋势,这种稳定的趋势有助于同时实现经济增长目标和稳定物价目标;（3）宏观经济调控执行绩效在1996年前较差,在1996年后得到了明显的改善,并在2000年后得到了进一步优化,实际政策损失逐渐向最小政策损失靠拢。     

中国通货膨胀原因与治理措施

中国目前的通货膨胀主要由产出缺口、货币信贷量过快增长、经济结构因素变动、汇率的变化以及通胀预期造成的,而产出缺口是决定通胀的一个基本力量,在货币供应量指标M2中,短期内只有＂真实交易货币＂能直接对物价起推动作用。结合通货膨胀产生的原因对中国治理现阶段的通货膨胀提出几点建议,主要是完善CPI体系、央行实行货币从紧的政策、压低房价、加快转变经济发展方式。     

产出缺口与中国地区通货膨胀

借鉴开放经济条件下新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线,采用中国省际面板数据,构建一个包含本地区产出缺口、国内其他地区产出缺口和国外产出缺口的三缺口通货膨胀模型,实证分析产出缺口对中国地区通货膨胀的影响,同时分东部和中西部考察区域差异。实证研究结论表明,国内外产出缺口显著影响我国地区通货膨胀。较之中西部地区更多受到国内产出缺口的影响,东部地区则更多受到国外产出缺口的冲击。而且,国内地区间的通货膨胀压力传导在东部地区较中西部更明显。另外,政府的反需求管理措施存在时滞,且政策调控主要降低了本地区产出缺口形成的通货膨胀压力。     

我国货币供给与货币缺口的实证比较

本文通过比较实际货币供给与均衡货币供给关系,分析了我国前一阶段的流动性过剩现象,认为流动性过剩是实际货币总量对预期均衡水平的偏离.实证研究表明,我国实际货币供给、均衡货币供给与货币缺口存在长期稳定的关系.经济领域中的货币缺口仅在个别时期接近零,大部分时期是实际货币供给超过均衡货币供给.流动性过剩不是经济政策失误的结果,它是经济发展带来的财富效应与资本积累形成的必然现象.目前,过剩流动性正以各种方式进行释放并对宏观经济产生影响,将货币缺口作为衡量流动性过剩的度量指标.符合我国中央银行以货币数量为中介目标的货币政策.优化资源配置、增加投资渠道与发展资本市场是解决流动性过剩的最佳途径.     

基于产出缺口估计的通货膨胀压力测度研究

笔者利用HP滤波方法估计中国近年的产出缺口状况,并建立描述中国宏观经济中产出缺口与通货膨胀之间关系的菲利普斯曲线方程式,最后采用计量方法进行实证研究发现,持续偏快的经济增长率是中国近年来出现通货膨胀的主要因素.基于此,中国政策当局应当坚持货币政策稳定物价的单一调控目标,并通过控制经济增长速度,来避免宏观经济中出现严重的通货膨胀.     

关于我国货币需求与实际货币缺口的经验研究——基于二阶局部调整模型的分析

本文利用二阶局部调整模型对我国的货币需求函数进行了定量估计.估计结果表明,实际产出、名义利率、通货膨胀率、股票市价总值以及货币替代率均对我国的狭义和广义货币需求产生了显著的影响.分析表明,我国近年来的利率和汇率政策仍然是以稳定通货膨胀为主要任务的;通过利率调整或者人民币升值等货币政策改善我国货币供求状况的过程中,应进一步关注各宏观经济变量对货币需求的影响动态.     

中国核心通胀率与产出缺口经验分析

利用新菲利普斯曲线，本文设定包含通胀与产出的非观测成分模型估计中国的核心通胀率与产出缺口。通过卡尔曼滤波平滑推断程序，季度通胀和产出均被分解为互相独立的趋势成分和周期成分。估计结果表明，二十年来我国的潜在产出变化相对于传统HP滤波结果更为平滑，其近似呈线性增长。这意味着我国产出特征可通过简洁的趋势平稳过程来描述，而Nelsonand Plosser（1982）以来普遍采用的单位根过程未必是刻画我国产出的最优模型。核心通胀率推断还表明，1998--2002年间的通货紧缩并非如物价指数下降表现的一样严重。     

中国核心通胀率与产出缺口经验分析

利用新菲利普斯曲线,本文设定包含通胀与产出的非观测成分模型估计中国的核心通胀率与产出缺口。通过卡尔曼滤波平滑推断程序,季度通胀和产出均被分解为互相独立的趋势成分和周期成分。估计结果表明,二十年来我国的潜在产出变化相对于传统HP滤波结果更为平滑,其近似呈线性增长。这意味着我国产出特征可通过简洁的趋势平稳过程来描述,而Nelson and Plosser(1982)以来普遍采用的单位根过程未必是刻画我国产出的最优模型。核心通胀率推断还表明,1998-2002年间的通货紧缩并非如物价指数下降表现的一样严重。     

Is There a Gap in the Gap? Regional Differences in the Gender Pay Gap

In this paper, we investigate regional differences in the gender pay gap both theoretically and empirically. Within a spatial model of monopsonistic competition, we show that more densely populated labour markets are more competitive and constrain employers’ ability to discriminate against women. Utilizing a large administrative data set for western Germany and a flexible semi‐parametric propensity score matching approach, we find that the unexplained gender pay gap for young workers is substantially lower in large metropolitan than in rural areas. This regional gap in the gap of roughly 10 percentage points remained surprisingly constant over the entire observation period of 30 years.     

The Gender Gap

The author explains the “gender gap” as a Nash equilibrium of a game with incomplete information about women's work at home and in the marketplace. Expectations about women's lower wages leads to the overutilization of women in the household, and this, in turn, leads to lower productivity and lower wages for women in the marketplace. The situation is rational but generally Pareto inferior. With logistic learning by doing, at high levels of skill there is a Pareto‐superior equilibrium, where men and women share efforts equally at home and receive the same pay in the marketplace, firms enhance their profits, and there is more welfare at home. Inequity at home breeds inequity in the marketplace and, reciprocally, inequity in the marketplace leads to inequity at home, causing a persistent gender gap. Appropriate contracts may be needed to implement the superior solution, since generally governments do not intervene in family matters.     

Debreu's Gap Theorem

Summary Debreu's fundamental result on the existence of utility functions that are continuous with respect to the order topology requires his Gap Theorem. A new proof of this result is given.     

中国农村地区收入差距与教育差距的动态研究

按照收入来源对农村地区收入差异进行分解后发现,我国农村地区收入差距的扩大主要来自农村工资性收入的地区差距,而农村工资性收入差异又主要与农村教育差距相关。通过构造内生收入函数模型,笔者实证研究了我国农村地区教育差距对收入差距的动态影响。结果发现,农村教育差距是收入差距扩大的重要原因,农村教育差距每上升1%,农村地区收入差距将扩大4.5196%,并且农村教育差距对收入差距的影响越来越大。     

从知识获取沟到知识生产沟——美国博客空间中的知识霸权

博客作为一种新的知识生产形式在网络空间的盛行,使个体之间知识生产的差距成为知识沟研究的一个新议题。本研究通过对一组美国全国性调查数据的分析,揭示了人们在网上以不同博客类型为表现形式的知识生产差异及其社会影响力差异。与经典的知识沟假说相一致,拥有较高社会经济地位的博客在网上生产较多政治知识,也具有较大的社会影响力。个体之间在线下的权力分布直接映射于线上,进入博客空间仅仅是参与政治公共领域的第一步。进入之后做什么,有何影响,则是更加重要的议题。将经典的知识沟假设从知识获取沟延伸到知识生产沟,本研究凸显了美国网络政治空间中存在的知识霸权。     

Does the Gap in Family‐friendly Policies Drive the Family Gap?*

Segregation of the labour market into a family‐friendly and a non‐family‐friendly sector implies that women self‐select into sectors depending on institutional constraints, preferences for family‐friendly working conditions and expected wage differences. We take this sector dimension into account and find a severe penalty after birth‐related leave in the non‐family‐friendly sector, so that women who would be affected by this penalty self‐select into the family‐friendly sector. The penalty is a combination of a large human‐capital depreciation effect, a child penalty and no recovery.     

Closing the Technology Gap?

This paper focuses on the dimensions shaping the dynamics of technology. We present a model where the knowledge stock of a country grows over time as a function of three main factors: innovation intensity, technological infrastructures, and human capital. The latter two variables determine the absorptive capacity of a country as well as its innovative ability. We then carry out an empirical analysis that investigates the dynamics of technology in a large sample of economies in the last two‐decade period, and studies its relationships with income per capita growth. The results indicate that the cross‐country distributions of technological infrastructures and human capital have experienced a process of convergence, whereas the innovative intensity is characterized by increasing polarization between rich and poor economies. Thus, while the conditions for catching up have generally improved, the increasing innovation gap represents a major factor behind the observed differences in income per capita.     

Technology Gap Matters on Spillover

This paper develops an oligopoly model with endogenous technology spillovers through foreign direct investment (FDI). The foreign entrant brings a superior technology and therefore may spend resources to prevent spillovers of its technology to the home firm. The home firm has an incentive to spend resources to gain these spillovers. After firms strategically choose their expenditures to influence technology spillovers, they compete in a Cournot–Nash quantity game. This study provides theoretical insight on the positive and negative empirical spillover results of FDI on productivity of local firms. Up to a critical bound, the larger the initial technology gap between the foreign and home firms, the more the home firm spends to gain spillovers. Past that boundary, the home firm decreases spending. As a result, the home firm's profits from spillovers vary, but larger technology gaps engender greater net profit losses from FDI.     

Heterogeneity Gap in Stable Jurisdiction Structures

This paper examines a model of multijurisdiction formation where individuals' characteristics are uniformly distributed over a finite interval. Every jurisdiction locates a public facility and distributes its cost equally among the residents. We consider the notions of Nash and local Nash stability, and examine the existence and characterization of stable partitions. The main feature of this analysis is that, even under the uniform distribution, there are stable structures that exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity of jurisdictional sizes.