India's Evolving Economic Model:

Abstract Over the course of the past 50 years, India has developed as a stable economy. Economic policies of the Indian government have guided and shaped India into a mixed economy. Political stability has been a significant factor in this process. The United States and European economic and political systems had a significant impact on evolution of India's economic model. Financial and economic reforms since 1991 have accelerated the pace of change toward an open market economy both in its internal operations and in its linkages with the global markets. India's economic future is now promising as it moves forward on its unique path of economic policy.     

Technology and Indian industry: what is liberalization changing?

This paper examines the process of liberalization in India, focusing on the implications for technology and industrial competitiveness. India's industrial and technology policy regime in the sixties and seventies was among the most inward-looking and protectionist anywhere outside the socialist bloc. Dilution of this restrictive policy regime began in the eighties but change has been relatively dramatic since 1991. The paper argues that firms have responded to liberalization by improving efficiency, importing technology and by increasing in-house R&D. However, viewed in comparison with other countries rather than its own past, India still has a long reform agenda pending.     

Values,gender and attitudes towards environmental policy: A study of future managers

This study explores if the value priorities and their impact on future managers' attitudes towards environmental responsibilities vary with gender. While relevant prior studies mostly focus on gender‐based variations of individuals' personal values in developed economies, we concentrate on both personal values and pro‐environmental attitudes in an emerging economy. This study is built on MBA students (a proxy for future managers) in India since India is characterized as a male‐dominated society and a producer of larger number of MBA graduates. Overall, our results show that personal values and attitude towards environmental responsibilities do not vary significantly with gender. Only two values (among the 21 values) and one value type (out of 10 values) get significantly higher ranking from females compared with males. Further, although ‘universalism’ and ‘benevolence’ are found to have a statistically significant impact on respondents' attitude towards environmental responsibility, the latter is invariant to the respondents' gender. Our findings may indicate India's transformation from a male‐dominated society towards a more gender‐balanced society. These findings can be used to operationalize a pro‐environmental recruitment policy and to formulate strategies to improve female participation in MBA cohorts of business schools.     

Culture,industrialisation and multiple domains of employees' job satisfaction: a case for HR strategy redesign in India

This paper explores the link between cultural behavioural traits, the potential effect of industrialisation and multiple domains of job satisfaction, utilising survey data collected from public and private service sector employees in Shillong, the capital city of Meghalaya in the North East Region (NER) of India. Results from ordered probit regressions demonstrate a statistically significant impact of both, extrinsic and intrinsic moderating factors on Indian employees' job satisfaction. In view of India's widely reported collectivistic cultural traits, which are assumed to emphasise primarily the importance of extrinsic job aspects, our findings are surprising. They suggest that in the wake of India's significant economic developments the impact of intrinsic job rewards has played ‘catch-up’ with that of their extrinsic counterparts. As such, the study provides evidence in support of embracing human resource management (HRM) practices that incentivise Indian employees not only through their traditional methods aimed at extrinsic job rewards but also by explicitly addressing individual ambitions, needs and aspirations.     

The economic effects of a stronger dollar

• A stronger dollar might help exports for some emerging markets, but through other channels it could have a negative impact on growth and financial stability. Our analysis suggests a re‐run of the crisis conditions of 1998-99 is unlikely, but there are areas of significant vulnerability. The dollar's strength reinforces our view that emerging growth will slow in 2015, to the slowest pace since 2009 – with risks to the downside.
• Dollar strength may be negative for emerging markets via several channels – by increasing the burden of dollar‐denominated debt, by lowering key commodity prices, by choking off capital inflows and forcing up interest rates and by triggering private sector deleveraging. These channels will operate to different degrees in different countries, though overall emerging markets look less risky than they did at the end of the 1990s.
• Highly indebted countries with inflation problems and high commodity dependence are the most at risk from dollar strength. Looking across the various indicators of vulnerability we see Malaysia, Chile, Turkey, Russia and Venezuela as most vulnerable. Among the countries better placed to weather a strong dollar are China and India.

     

UK Forecast Overview

We have nudged down our forecast for GDP growth in 2015 from 3% in January to 2.8% now, reflecting the likelihood of a soft initial reading for Q1 growth. But the outlook remains favourable, with a period of low inflation underpinning strong growth. March's Budget did little to alter the outlook, with fiscal policy in a holding pattern until after May's General Election…     

中国与印度贸易摩擦的原因及对策分析

随着中印双边贸易发展迅速,中国已成为印度的第二大贸易伙伴,印度也已成为中国在南亚地区最大的贸易伙伴。但印度对华贸易保护呈现愈演愈烈之势。在WTO成员国中,印度是金融危机以来对我国发起贸易救济案件最多的国家,两国间的贸易摩擦问题已不容忽视。本文通过对总贸易额、进出口商品构成、反倾销的比例等数据的比较,从宏观、政策和产业三个角度,分析了中印贸易摩擦存在的原因,并从政府、行业协会和进出口商会、企业的角度,制定出应对中印贸易摩擦的对策建议。     

Diasporas and Domestic Entrepreneurs: Evidence from the Indian Software Industry

This study explores the importance of cross‐border social networks for entrepreneurs in developing countries by examining ties between the Indian expatriate community and local entrepreneurs in India's software industry. We find that local entrepreneurs who have previously lived outside India rely significantly more on diaspora networks for business leads and financing. This is especially true for entrepreneurs who are based outside software hubs—where getting leads to new businesses and accessing finance is more difficult. Our results provide micro‐evidence consistent with a view that cross‐border social networks play an important role in helping entrepreneurs to circumvent the barriers arising from imperfect domestic institutions in developing countries.     

Demographic transition and economic growth in China,India and Pakistan

The authors of this paper adopt a Solow–Swan model extended to include demographic variables to analyze the overall effect of demographic transition on economic growth. The results, based on data from seventy countries over the period 1961–2003, reveal that GDP per capita growth is positively related to the growth differential between the working-age population and the total population, and negatively related to child and old-age dependency ratios. Based on these results, they find that population dynamics explain 46 percent of economic growth in per capita GDP in China over the period 1961–2003, 39 percent in India, and 25 percent in Pakistan. Furthermore, population dynamics are expected to have a positive effect on economic growth in India and Pakistan over the period 2005–2050, and a negative effect in China.     

Product innovation for the people's car in an emerging economy

As product offerings of multinational enterprises (MNEs) continue to primarily serve the relatively well-to-do consumers in emerging economies, innovations to meet the unique affordability and acceptability criteria of masses at the base of the pyramid (BoP) continues to remain a daunting challenge. The academic literature is sparse on comprehensive in-depth studies about the intricate processes involved in shaping and managing technology development for the masses. Focusing on product innovation by Tata Motors of India with the Nano—the world's cheapest car, our case study aims to understand how the innovator's choices regarding the use of technology, product design and organizational practices for new product development enabled it to meet the challenge of innovation for India's masses. Drawing on Christensen's work on disruptive innovations, our analysis shows how frugal use of resources through a new combination of existing component technologies created a new modular product to achieve the unique price–performance requirements demanded by the BoP. Our findings show that collaboration with suppliers for component design and their early integration in the design phase substantially lowered costs and helped eliminate unnecessary frills whilst incorporating features valued by mass markets. Our study has important managerial implications for MNEs and provides critical insights into the processes for a new blueprint for an untapped market segment in the automobile industry.     

Leading Indicators for Euro‐area Inflation and GDP Growth*

In this paper, we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro‐area inflation and GDP growth. Our leading indicators are taken from the variables in the European Central Bank's (ECB) Euro‐area‐wide model database, plus a set of similar variables for the US. We compare the forecasting performance of each indicator ex post with that of purely autoregressive models. We also analyse three different approaches to combining the information from several indicators. First, ex post, we discuss the use as indicators of the estimated factors from a dynamic factor model for all the indicators. Secondly, within an ex ante framework, an automated model selection procedure is applied to models with a large set of indicators. No future information is used, future values of the regressors are forecast, and the choice of the indicators is based on their past forecasting records. Finally, we consider the forecasting performance of groups of indicators and factors and methods of pooling the ex ante single‐indicator or factor‐based forecasts. Some sensitivity analyses are also undertaken for different forecasting horizons and weighting schemes of forecasts to assess the robustness of the results.     

Do environmental regulations hamper small enterprises' market entry? Evidence from China

Due to the serious increase of environmental pollution in China, environmental regulations have become significantly stringent. Such regulations are playing an increasingly important role in the development of small enterprises (SEs) in China, especially in SEs' market entry. However, existing studies pay little attention to this issue. This paper investigates for the first time the effect of environmental regulations on SEs' market entry and the mechanism of environmental regulation effects in China. We consider two sets of panel data for the periods 2003–2010 and 2012–2015 in China. We also use the fixed effect model and the instrumental variable method to explore the role of environmental regulations in SEs' market entry. The results show that, overall, environmental regulations play a significantly positive and robust role in SEs' market entry. However, the mechanisms associated with the effect of environmental regulations on different innovative types of SEs differ. Environmental regulations promote the market entry of SEs with product innovation, but this impact is not significant for SEs with research and development (R&D) activities and R&D institutions. Our findings indicate that China's SEs prefer product innovation, which is a lower level innovative type, over R&D innovation, as a means to avoid the negative impact of stringent environmental regulations.     

Japan

Monthly indicators suggest that the momentum in exports and industrial production improved in Q1. And we expect a weaker currency and a gradually improving outlook for global trade – led by Chinese demand – to continue to help exports. Business investment is also set to improve, as corporate profits recover, albeit growth is likely to be bumpy given ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Trump's policies. Fiscal and monetary policy will remain supportive. With little evidence that elusive demand‐pull pressures will boost inflation, we expect BoJ to maintain its current monetary policy stance over 2017–18, while government infrastructure spending is set to rise.     

论创办儿童心理教育机构的财务分析

有关数据表明我国4-16岁儿童的心理行为问题检出率为12.97%±2.19%。据调查,中国大多数城镇家庭中教育消费占家庭总消费的65.5%,可以看出,父母对子女的教育问题尤为重视。中国目前0-12岁幼儿约有3.2亿,每年新生儿2000多万。未来儿童心理教育市场有着庞大的发展空间。本文将针对某一儿童心理教育机构,从财务的视角对其可行性进行相应分析。     

Residential mobility and the local context: Comparing long-term and short-term spatial trends of population movements in Greece

Residential mobility is a key dimension of population dynamics shaping urban growth and rural development at different spatio-temporal scales. Assuming spatial mobility as increasingly dependent on the intrinsic characteristics of local contexts, the present study investigates long-term and short-term population movements in a European country (Greece), in light of regional urbanization processes and socioeconomic development. A multidimensional analysis of indicators of residential stability and background variables was carried out with the aim at evaluating the influence of local contexts on more general processes of population mobility. Different typologies of spatial mobility associated to factors (directly or indirectly) dependent on demographic dynamics, economic performances and urban cycles were identified. The empirical findings of this study evidence (more or less traditional) paths of internal migration and a latent process of population relocation across metropolitan regions, together with more recent international migrations at both working and retirement age. While short-range population movements were the ultimate result of late suburbanization in Greece, medium- and broad-range mobility consolidated the country's divide in urban and rural areas, evidencing the attractive role of Athens. Spatial direction and intensity of population movements reflect complex socioeconomic transformations, whose knowledge provides innovative visions for a better understanding of future demographic dynamics in Mediterranean Europe.     

The global impact of a sharper US‐China slowdown

• ? We forecast a moderate global slowdown through 2020, but risks are looming of a sharper downturn in China and the US. If these were to materialise, our simulations suggest global GDP growth would hit a post‐crisis low, with the level of GDP dropping by 0.6% and growth slowing by 0.4 ppt in 2019/20.
• ? Economies with strong trade linkages to China and the US – Korea, Taiwan and Mexico – would suffer most. Conversely, a weaker dollar, lower oil prices and relatively smaller trade flows with the US and China would offset the blow in Europe and for some EMs, including Turkey, Argentina and India.
• ? Since 2010, Chinese activity has been a powerful leading indicator of every major economy's exports, proving stronger than similar indicators for US or eurozone activity. This is even the case for non‐Asian economies such as Canada, Mexico, Italy, Germany, France and the UK. This may reflect deepening trading relationships and the relatively high volatility of Chinese cyclical indicators over the period.
• ? Over the past decade, global macro stability has been supported by the US and Chinese cycles moving counter to each other. But this could reverse if the ongoing Chinese policy stimulus fails to gain traction and the weakness gains momentum.

     

Probabilistic Population Projections for India with Explicit Consideration of the Education-Fertility Link

Among the different sources of uncertainty in population forecasting, uncertain changes in the structure of heterogeneous populations have received little attention so far, although they can have significant impacts. Here we focus on the effect of changes in the educational composition of the population on the overall fertility of the population in the presence of strong fertility differentials by education. With data from India we show that alternative paths of future female enrolment in education result in significantly different total fertility rates (TFR) for the country over the coming decades, even assuming identical fertility trends within each education group. These results from multi-state population projections by education are then translated into a fully probabilistic population projection for India in which the results of alternative education scenarios are assumed to expand the uncertainty range of the future TFR in the total population.
This first attempt to endogenize structural change with respect to education—which is the greatest measurable source of fertility heterogeneity in Asia—has resulted from a larger exercise of the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis to collect empirical information, scientific arguments as well as informed opinions about likely future population trends in Asia from a large number of population experts in the region. In this process, future changes in the educational composition of the population have been identified as a key driver of future fertility.
The actual probabilistic population projections for India show that with high certainty, the Indian population will continue to grow to about 1.3 billion over the next quarter of a century. After that the uncertainty will get much wider, ranging from a continued strong increase to the beginning of a population decline in India.     

印度与中国包容性增长比较研究

印度与中国的经济增长模式不同,印度"藏富于民"而中国"藏富于国",印度经济增长潜力远远大于中国,印度经济增长动力既源于印度的包容性增长措施,又促进了印度的包容性增长。印度包容性增长经验给我们的启示包括改善收入分配比例,调整投资结构,降低通货膨胀,改善产品出口结构等。     

Ending an Era of Population Control in China: Was the One‐Child Policy Ever Needed?

The one‐child policy of China, which was initiated in 1980 and was reversed in 2015, has been conceived of as a decision made independently and arbitrarily or a product of impulsive decision making. Therefore, it has received a great deal of criticism from Western democracies. Of course, China faced internal problems related to population, such as the Great Famine of 1958–1961. This might be deemed the direct cause of the one‐child policy. However, the more powerful factors were indirect and of foreign origin. China's one‐child policy was deeply influenced by the West, especially by Western population science. Since the May 4^th Movement in 1919, China has had a tendency to worship science because of the Chinese obsession with Western‐style modernization. In other words, China's one‐child policy is a product of blind imitation of Western population science. The action has resulted in serious negative consequences such as an imbalance of the sex ratio, elder‐care problems, human rights violations, undermining of traditional values, and even endangering the regime. Those problems caused China to reverse its one‐child policy. The authors believe that China should develop a postmodern population policy with Chinese character, based on organic thinking, which takes human feelings seriously and empowers people and allows them to act as subjects or agents in decisions about their families, including the size of their family and the selection of gender.     

A Study on the Indian Information Sector: An Experiment with Input-Output Techniques

It is widely recognized that rapid changes in information technology (IT) are bringing about major structural changes in the economies of the world. Information flexibility, product quality and fast response are the key factors for global competition and IT plays a critical role in these areas. Policy-makers in industrialized and developing countries view IT as a critical infrastructure to enhance their access to global knowledge, markets and capital. These views--of IT as infrastructure and as core capability for development--resonate with India's aspirations to modernize its infrastructure, transform its industry and join the global economy. Realizing the huge potential of the Indian IT industry, we make an attempt in this paper to study the extent of informatization in the Indian economy during the period 1983-84 to 1989-90 and try to identify the information intensive sectors. This paper also studies the sources of growth of the information sectors of India during 1983-84 to 1989-90 with the help of a structural decomposition analysis (SDA).