考虑绿证价格与发电量双重随机的风电投资策略研究

针对火力发电减排投资的碳交易市场，实物期权理论被用于研究碳价波动对投资策略的影响。而在可再生能源发电项目中，绿证价格与风力发电量具有双重不确定性，本文据此构建风电投资项目实物期权模型，研究绿证价格与发电量波动等对风电投资阈值与投资时点的影响。研究表明：(1)绿证价格与发电量波动增加了投资阈值与投资等待时间，积极推动绿证跨区域交易、禁止二次交易、配置储能装置能够抑制波动，降低风电投资阈值门槛；(2)绿证期望收益率适中更为有利；(3)运营周期延长及税收优惠力度增加均能降低投资阈值与投资等待时间，起到激励风电项目投资的效果。基于此，应限制绿证投机性交易、实施绿证价格下限政策、延长运营周期与税收优惠并举。     

碳贸易价格风险变动趋势与我国CDM发展策略

本文构建并拟合了包含分布转换的Markov-GARCH模型,计算了基于该模型的风险价值(VaR),对国际碳贸易市场价格风险变动趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明:碳贸易市场价格在均值、方差、峰度、波动聚集性以及分布形式方面都具有机制转换的特性;欧盟推出的EU ETS改革措施将促使未来碳贸易市场价格波动风险进一步降低。我国应当适时提高CDM合同最低限价;减少向CDM合同国际买方支付的风险溢价;暂停上马HFC-23和N2O分解类项目;加快国内碳贸易和碳金融市场的发展,争夺国际碳贸易市场定价权。     

基于MATLAB的欧式期权定价与隐含波动率应用

期权价格依赖于标的产品的价格、执行价格、无风险利率、从目前到期权到期的时间、基础资产的波动率等变量。欧式期权定价和银行波动率的应用是金融工程领域研究的重要内容。本文利用MATLAB工具箱实现对欧式期权定价的求解,并进一步探讨隐含波动率在投资实践中的应用。     

碳排放期权定价及实证研究——以湖北碳排放交易中心为例

碳期权作为碳金融市场上重要的交易产品,合理定价有利于投资者做出理性的碳期权套期保值决策,降低碳交易市场风险。因此,本文基于湖北碳排放交易中心碳配额数据构建定价模型,以此对我国八大碳交易市场价格提供一定的借鉴。本文将GARCH模型和期权定价模型B-S引入碳排放交易期权的定价研究中。通过碳排放交易中心配额期货收盘价的数据检验,发现价格波动情况具有非正态性和尖峰厚尾的特征,并采用GARCH模型拟合预测碳价收益率波动率,将预测的数据求取标准差后得到最终日波动率,从而带入B-S定价模型中进行价值估值。结果表明,GARCH模型具有良好的拟合性,有利于提高定价的精准度。     

完善可再生能源价格的政策研究——基于发电价格补贴政策与实践效果的评述

对可再生能源发电实行价格补贴是世界各国较为广泛运用的政策手段,其最为重要和复杂的是价格方法制定和调整。上网电价政策是目前推动可再生能源发展最为成功的机制,但这一机制发挥重要作用的关键还在于如何结合国情。基于国际经验和我国对可再生能源价格补贴机制的研究现状,笔者提出了我国需予以研究的重点方向。     

全球环境基金赠款助力中国推广分布式可再生能源 旨在促进中国分布式可再生能源的规模化发展

<正>据世界银行消息,世界银行执行董事会日前批准为中国分布式可再生能源应用推广项目提供全球环境基金赠款近730万美元,旨在促进中国分布式可再生能源的规模化发展。分布式可再生能源技术可在负荷端实现发用互联并有助于电网稳定,从而避免将可再生能源从电源到负荷之间进行远距离输送的需求。分布式可再生能源的开发潜力与电池储能的发展密切相关,两者的结合将为减排做出重要贡献,但分布式可再生能源和电池储能在技术上仍有风险,缺少完善的商     

能源项目投资决策评价的实物期权法与传统方法的综述分析与比较研究

能源项目具有高投资、周期长、风险大等特点,传统投资决策方法由于其天生的缺陷,不能科学合理的对能源项目进行决策评估。而实物期权则能较为科学合理的对能源项目进行价值评估。综述分析了以贴现现金流法为主的传统决策方法和实物期权法,指出实物期权在能源项目投资分析中的合理性,更适合能源项目的投资决策分析。     

基于BS模型的上证50ETF期权实证研究

本文基于Black-Scholes定价模型对上证50ETF期权的价格进行实证研究,用控制变量法分析影响期权价格的五个因素(标的资产现价、期权执行价格、无风险利率、波动率、期限),通过R软件实现对上海证券交易所挂牌交易的上证ETF期权的实证检验,将利用Black-Scholes模型计算出来的期权理论价格与实际收盘价进行对比,分析实际期权价格与测算价格差异产生的原因。     

基于实物期权的企业项目投资时机选择分析

文章简述了实物期权理论,并构造了利用实物期权中的延迟投资期权进行投资时机选择的步骤,以期对企业项目投资决策起一定的指导作用。     

科技部发布“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目“可再生能源与建筑集成技术研究与示范”课题申报指南的通知

《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要（2006～2020年）》（以下简称《纲要》）在“先进能源技术”领域中提出了“可再生能源低成本规模化开发利用”优先主题，重点研究“太阳能建筑一体化技术”；在“城镇化与城市发展”领域中，提出了“建筑节能与绿色建筑”优先主题，重点研究“可再生能源装置与建筑一体化应用技术”。为落实《纲要》精神，引导和规范可再生能源技术在我国建筑工程中的推广应用，满足我国实际和潜在需求，在广泛征求各有关部门（单位）、地方及企业对可再生能源在建筑应用中的需求以及项目建议的基础上，科技部在“十一五”国家科技支撑计划中设立了重点项目“可再生能源与建筑集成技术研究与示范”。重点解决可再生能源与建筑集成的接口技术、一体化技术、同寿命技术和瓶颈问题，通过系统的技术集成和工程示范，形成一批具有自主知识产权的关键单元技术和接口技术，建立我国可再生能源集成利用核心技术的研究开发基地和技术创新体系，提高我国可再生能源技术在民用建筑尤其是住宅建筑中的应用水平。     

Valuation of IT Investments Using Real Options Theory

Real Options Theory is often applied to the valuation of IT investments. The application of Real Options Theory is generally accompanied by a monetary valuation of real options through option pricing models which in turn are based on restrictive assumptions and thus subject to criticism. Therefore, this paper analyzes the application of option pricing models to the valuation of IT investments. A structured literature review reveals the types of IT investments which are valued with Real Options Theory in scientific literature. These types of IT investments are further investigated and their main characteristics are compared to the restrictive assumptions of traditional option pricing models. This analysis serves as a basis for further discussion on how the identified papers address these assumptions. The results show that a lot of papers do not account for critical assumptions, although it is known that the assumptions are not fulfilled. Moreover, the type of IT investment determines the criticality of the assumptions. Additionally, several extensions or adaptions of traditional option pricing models can be found which provide the possibility to relax critical assumptions. Researchers can profit from the results derived in this paper in two ways: First, it is demonstrated which assumptions can be critical for various types of IT investments. Second, extensions of option pricing models that relax critical assumptions are introduced.     

The Valuation of American Options on Multiple Assets

In this paper we provide valuation formulas for several types of American options on two or more assets. Our contribution is twofold. First, we characterize the optimal exercise regions and provide valuation formulas for a number of American option contracts on multiple underlying assets with convex payoff functions. Examples include options on the maximum of two assets, dual strike options, spread options, exchange options, options on the product and powers of the product, and options on the arithmetic average of two assets. Second, we derive results for American option contracts with nonconvex payoffs, such as American capped exchange options. For this option we explicitly identify the optimal exercise boundary and provide a decomposition of the price in terms of a capped exchange option with automatic exercise at the cap and an early exercise premium involving the benefits of exercising prior to reaching the cap. Besides generalizing the current literature on American option valuation our analysis has implications for the theory of investment under uncertainty. A specialization of one of our models also provides a new representation formula for an American capped option on a single underlying asset.     

Determining investment size and local embeddedness under host market uncertainty and growth rates

This study employs a growth options perspective to examine how multinational corporations (MNCs) design their investment attributes under the influence of host market uncertainty and growth rates. It specifically examines MNCs’ decisions on investment size and local embeddedness under host market conditions. Using data on Korean overseas manufacturing subsidiaries, we find that MNCs choose either more-local-embedded small investments or less-locally-embedded large investments under high demand uncertainty and GDP growth rates. We also find that this choice is moderated by host market political risk and competition. Our findings imply that MNCs consider both uncertainty-driven flexibility and growth rate-induced commitment when selecting international investment modes. This consideration allows MNCs to gain flexibility as well as an enhanced ability to expand in the future. This study contributes to the literature on real options and entry modes in the international business area by showing how host market conditions and investment decisions are related.     

实物期权评价方法及波动率全周期估算研究

在不确定性投资中,实物期权评价方法充分考虑了项目投资中的管理灵活性、不确定性和不可逆性,因而更能准确地评估项目投资的价值。项目建设期的现金流出和经营期可能出现的亏损使得现行波动率估算方法难以应用于项目评价中。在分析波动率性质的基础上,以净现值法为基础,应用蒙特卡洛原理,提出了在现金流随机变动条件下实物期权模型中基于全周期的波动率参数估算方法,该方法适用于项目投资且易于操作。     

国际直接投资的新思维——实物期权思想的融入

全球化经济时代的到来 ,为经济理论提出了新课题 ,FDI作为跨国经营的主要形式成为研究重点。实物期权理论在评估高风险、高灵活性的投资项目时有不可替代的作用 ,而FDI恰恰属于此类投资项目。将实物期权思想融入FDI理论 ,不仅解释了FDI近来快速增长的现象 ,也为FDI理论开辟了新的研究领域     

The Pricing of Catastrophe Equity Put Options with Default Risk

In this paper, we present a pricing model for catastrophe equity put options with default risk by assuming that the default of the option issuer may occur at any time prior to maturity of the option. Catastrophic events are assumed to occur according to a doubly stochastic Poisson process, and stock price is affected by the catastrophe losses, which follow the compound doubly stochastic Poisson process. As for default risk, we adopt typical structural approaches, and we also allow the correlation between the underlying stock and the assets of the option issuer. Under this framework, we derive a pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options with default risk. Finally, numerical analysis is presented to illustrate effects of default risk on catastrophe equity put option prices.     

Ecology-Driven Real Options: An Investment Framework for Incorporating Uncertainties in the Context of the Natural Environment

The role of uncertainty within an organization’s environment features prominently in the business ethics and management literature, but how corporate investment decisions should proceed in the face of uncertainties relating to the natural environment is less discussed. From the perspective of ecological economics, the salience of ecology-induced issues challenges management to address new types of uncertainties. These pertain to constraints within the natural environment as well as to institutional action aimed at conserving the natural environment. We derive six areas of ecology-induced uncertainties and propose ecology-driven real options as a conceptual approach for systematically incorporating these uncertainties into strategic management. We combine our results in an integrative investment framework and illustrate its application with the case of carbon constraints.     

Exercise Regions And Efficient Valuation Of American Lookback Options

This paper presents an efficient method to compute the values and early exercise boundaries of American fixed strike lookback options. The method reduces option valuation to a single optimal stopping problem for standard Brownian motion and an associated path-dependent functional, indexed by one parameter in the absence of dividends and by two parameters in the presence of a dividend rate. Numerical results obtained by this method show that, after a space-time transformation, the stopping boundaries are well approximated by certain piecewise linear functions with a few pieces, leading to fast and accurate approximations for American lookback option values. An explicit decomposition formula for American lookback options is derived and applied not only to the development of these approximations but also to the asymptotic analysis of the early exercise boundary near the expiration date.     

国际投资法视野下的碳排放权

根据《华盛顿公约》与具体的投资协定,碳排放权可被视为投资。因此,碳排放权在遭受征收或歧视时可受到国际投资法的保护,并可得到公平与公正待遇的保障。由于东道国在国际投资争端中的应诉成本很高,一些国家可能会减缓排放交易机制的实施。考虑到在全球范围内建立排放交易机制的重要性,不应给予碳排放权过高的投资保护。在国际投资协定中纳入环境例外条款可以在环境保护与投资保护之间实现最佳平衡。     

Managing Strategically Outside Options under Incomplete Contracts

This paper studies an incomplete contract framework in which specific investments affect parties’ outside options. We show that the ‘direction’ of standard hold-up in this new framework strictly depends on the impact generated by investments on ex-post parties’ outside options. This conclusion reverses some of the main results raised by the standard literature on incomplete contracts. Under given conditions, parties may even over-invest in assets specificity, as the changes induced in outside options improve their ex-post bargaining power. We discuss the implications for competition policy and for the management of incomplete contracts.