Incomplete cost pass-through under deep habits

A number of empirical studies document that marginal cost shocks are not fully passed through to prices at the firm level and that prices are substantially less volatile than costs. We show that in the relative-deep-habits model of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohé, and Uribe [Ravn, M., Schmitt-Grohé, S., Uribe, M., 2006. Deep habits. Review of Economic Studies 73, 195–218], firm-specific marginal cost shocks are not fully passed through to product prices. That is, in response to a firm-specific increase in marginal costs, prices rise, but by less than marginal costs leading to a decline in the firm-specific markup of prices over marginal costs. Pass-through is predicted to be even lower when shocks to marginal costs are anticipated by firms. In our model unanticipated firm-specific cost shocks lead to incomplete pass-through (or a decline in markups) of about 20 percent and anticipated cost shocks are associated with incomplete pass-through of about 50 percent. The model predicts that cost pass-through is increasing in the persistence of marginal cost shocks and U-shaped in the strength of habits. The relative-deep-habits model implies that conditional on marginal cost disturbances, prices are less volatile than marginal costs.     

The day-of-the-week pattern of price clustering in Bitcoin

Following Urquhart (2017) who finds evidence of price clustering in Bitcoin, we answer the question of whether the documented price clustering in Bitcoin is driven by any given day-of-the-week. We find evidence that Bitcoin prices cluster around whole numbers more on Fridays and least on Mondays. We also show that Bitcoin price clustering around the top three most frequent two-digit decimals is primarily a Friday phenomenon.     

Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation

The drivers of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are studied within a framework based on Cagan’s model of hyperinflation. In the model, the prices of the cryptocurrencies are driven by stochastic adoption and velocity shocks as well as endogenous expectations of future prices. The model is estimated with data for prices, transaction volumes, and money supplies. A majority of price fluctuations in both currencies can be attributed to shocks in adoption, velocity shocks are much less important. The money demand sensitivity to expected price changes is estimated to be larger for Bitcoin than for Ethereum, and both have higher sensitivity than fiat currencies during episodes of hyperinflation.     

Pricing inputs to induce efficient Make-or-Buy decisions

We investigate input pricing regimes that induce efficient Make-or-Buy decisions by entrants when there is constant returns in the production of the input(s) and simultaneous noncooperative price competition in downstream retail markets. Necessary and sufficient conditions for efficient Make-or-Buy decisions are derived. The necessary condition shows that input prices are relevant for Make-or-Buy decisions except under restrictive and often unverifiable assumptions on the demand structure, and that the least informationally-demanding way to ensure efficient Make-or-Buy decisions is to price inputs at marginal cost provided changes in the entrant’s cost have a “normal” effect on the entrant’s profit. The conditions also show that pricing the incumbent’s input at the entrant’s marginal cost always ensures efficient Make- or-Buy decisions. The extent to which input prices can depart from marginal cost while still inducing efficient Make-or-Buy decisions increases with the efficiency differential between the incumbent and entrant and with the demand displacement ratio.      

AN OPEN-ECONOMY NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE: EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG

Abstract. This paper extends the new hybrid Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) to the open‐economy context. We hypothesize that pricing decisions depend on both labour costs and intermediate imported input prices. The results for Hong Kong are consistent with the theory if import prices are given substantial weight in measuring marginal cost, rejecting the labour costs model. We find that forward‐looking behaviour is dominant, and that price stickiness is smaller in Hong Kong than in the USA. The results are sensitive to the choice of instruments, and a model using the output gap instead of marginal cost as the forcing variable also performs well.     

The hump-shaped behavior of inflation and a dynamic externality

We propose a general equilibrium model that explains the empirical evidence of the hump-shaped response of inflation to a monetary policy shock. The model replaces backward-looking indexation à la Christiano et al. [2005. Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effect of a shock to monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy 113(1), 1-45] with a dynamic externality into the production function of firms. The model, armed with sticky wages and variable capital utilization, has two offsetting effects on real marginal cost over the business cycle. First, increasing factor prices raise real marginal cost in response to an expansionary monetary policy shock in the intermediate run. Second, a dynamic externality reduces real marginal cost in the short run because it raises productivity in response to an increase in output following the shock. Overall, the resulting short-run decrease and intermediate-run increase in marginal cost replicate the hump-shaped behavior of inflation under purely forward-looking price and wage Phillips curves.     

Quantile spillovers and dependence between Bitcoin,equities and strategic commodities

This paper has two aims. We first examine the dynamic spillovers between Bitcoin and 12 developed equities, gold, and crude oil for different market conditions using a Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with daily spot prices. Our econometric approach enables us to capture the left and right tails as well as the shoulders of the return distribution corresponding to volatility spillovers under the bear, normal, and bull market states among these financial assets. We quantify and trace the dependence and directional predictability from Bitcoin to other assets using the sample cross-quantilogram. Our key findings offer convincing evidence of time variation in the level of volatility. Spillovers between Bitcoin and other financial assets intensify during extreme global market conditions. Secondly, results from the cross-quantilogram indicate strong dependence and positive directional predictability between Bitcoin and most equities and crude oil when market returns are bullish. However, during the bearish market period, there is negative dependence and predictability from Bitcoin to stocks in Finland, the Netherlands, the U.S.A, and the crude oil market only. This implies that Bitcoin can act as a hedge to stocks in Finland, the Netherlands, the U.S.A, and the crude oil market. However, insignificant dependence and directional predictability from Bitcoin to the remaining assets indicate that Bitcoin may act as a safe-haven to these assets during bearish markets. Our findings hold important implications for both international investors and portfolio managers who consider Bitcoin as part of their portfolio diversification and other investment strategies.     

On the predictive power of ARJI volatility forecasts for Bitcoin

Motivated by the recent literature on cryptocurrency volatility dynamics, this paper adopts the ARJI, GARCH, EGARCH, and CGARCH models to explore their capabilities to make out-of-sample volatility forecasts for Bitcoin returns over a daily horizon from 2013 to 2018. The empirical results indicate that the ARJI jump model can cope with the extreme price movements of Bitcoin, showing comparatively superior in-sample goodness-of-fit, as well as out-of-sample predictive performance. However, due to the excessive volatility swings on the cryptocurrency market, the realized volatility of Bitcoin prices is only marginally explained by the GARCH genre of employed models.     

Climate change,fossil fuel prices and depletion: The rationale for a falling export tax

This paper examines how world prices affect depletion of exhaustible fossil fuels for export and the role of an export revenue tax in curbing depletion. Both effects are studied for a small open economy affected by climate change. We find that setting an export revenue tax rate to fall over time at the marginal social cost of depletion due to lower productivity from climate change encourages a resource exporter to leave an optimal stock in the ground – unextracted and unburnable. Growing prices during the past decade similarly curb depletion. Falling prices bring forward extraction. Because production is independent of consumption, the marginal social cost is independent of utility parameters which are difficult to estimate. Slowing fossil fuel extraction and the effective export of emissions is a contemporary challenge for climate policy. Our findings identify both why an export revenue tax should decline over time and an estimable target rate of decline to help meet this challenge amid changing world prices.     

THE EXISTENCE OF EQUILIBRIUM IN A DIFFERENTIATED DUOPOLY WITH NETWORK EXTERNALITIES*

The existence of a pure‐strategy subgame‐perfect equilibrium in qualities and prices is investigated in a duopoly model of vertical differentiation where quality improvements require a quadratic variable cost and network externalities operate. We show that there exists a parameter region where the incentive to predate at the quality stage prevents firms from reaching a pure‐strategy non‐cooperative equilibrium with prices above marginal costs. If network externalities are sufficiently large, a Bertrand equilibrium with zero profits may arise, although the amount of product differentiation is strictly positive.     

Capacity Choice Counters the Coase Conjecture

The Coase conjecture (1972) is the proposition that a durable-goods monopolist, who sells over time and can quickly reduce prices as sales are made, will price at marginal cost. We show that an arbitrarily small deviation from Coase's assumptions—a deviation that applies in almost any practical application—results in the failure of that conjecture. In particular, we examine that conjecture in a model where there is a vanishingly small cost for production (or sales) capacity, and the seller may augment capacity in every period. In the "gap case", any positive capacity cost ensures that in the limit, as the size of the gap and the time between sales periods shrink, the monopolist obtains profits identical to those that would prevail when she could commit ex ante to a fixed capacity. Those profits are at least 29·8% of the full static monopoly optimum.     

Export Subsidies and Exchange Rate Pass‐through

This paper investigates effects of exchange rate on optimal trade policies and market prices within a standard export subsidy model. Shifts in exchange rate change relative efficiencies of firms in different countries. We show that depreciation of own currency increases subsidy levels when marginal cost is constant. Import dependency weakens this relationship, decreasing sensitivity of subsidy levels to depreciation. In general, subsidies reduce exchange rate pass‐through. Additionally, perverse exchange rate pass‐through effect arises with sufficiently intensive subsidies.     

Exchange Rate Changes and Pricing Behavior of US Exporters

This paper studies export pricing behavior following exchange rate changes in US manufacturing industries. Through a monopolistic model, the paper predicts that export prices should change, but less than proportionally, in response to exchange rate changes if either or both demand elasticity and marginal cost are variable. Cross-industry variation of such price changes can be explained by the difference in demand elasticities between the domestic and the export markets, the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output. and the export share. These predictions are supported by the empirical findings of the paper.     

Do German renewable energy resources affect prices and mitigate market power in the French electricity market ?

Several empirical studies show that renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, typically supplied at low marginal cost, can cause electricity market prices to fall. Recent theoretical research and simulations also highlight the link between the integration of renewable energy and market performance in an oligopolistic energy market. This article looks at these dynamics in the context of cross-border effects between two highly interconnected electricity markets, France and Germany. Using a rich panel dataset for hourly data from November 2009 to July 2015, I estimate the impact of German wind and solar power production on both prices and market power in the French wholesale market. The findings highlight the importance of coordinating energy policies via joint renewable energy support schemes among interconnected European electricity markets.     

Mixed linear-nonlinear pricing with bundling

The practice of setting marginal prices below marginal costs is so common in telecommunications offerings that it can justifiably be labeled a stylized fact. In this paper, we present a stylized model that establishes conditions under which this practice is economically efficient and profit-maximizing. A multiproduct monopolist who sells some of his goods according to a nonlinear price schedule, while selling the remaining goods at linear prices, is said to use a mixed price structure. We develop a simple model to characterize welfare- and profit-maximizing mixed prices. It is shown that standard results obtained separately for linear and nonlinear prices do not hold when mixed prices are used. In particular, the marginal price facing the largest buyer can be above or below marginal cost. The result is shown to depend on whether the goods are substitutes or complements. Implications of these results for telecommunications prices are derived, and the intuition underlying our stylized fact is developed.     

On Price Caps Under Uncertainty

This paper shows how standard arguments supporting the imposition of price caps break down in the presence of demand uncertainty. In particular, though in the deterministic case the introduction or lowering of a price cap (above marginal cost) results in increased production, increased total welfare, decreased prices, and increased consumer welfare, we show that all of the above comparative statics predictions fail for generic uncertain demand functions. For example, for price caps sufficiently close to marginal cost, a decrease in the price cap always leads to a decrease in production and total welfare under certain mild conditions. Under stronger regularity assumptions, all of the monotone comparative statics predictions from the deterministic case also do not hold for a generic uncertain demand if we restrict attention to price caps in an arbitrary fixed interval (as long as the price caps are binding for some values in that interval).     

Competitive Neutrality in Access Pricing

This article examines the notion of competitive neutrality when setting access prices for vertically integrated bottleneck networks. In contrast to the claims of regulated firms (for example, Telstra), it is not possible to argue that access charges that involve unit prices in excess of short‐run marginal cost reflect competitive neutrality. That is, we demonstrate that in general models of downstream oligopoly, upstream prices that differ from marginal cost are not competitively neutral in the sense of placing integrated and non‐integrated firms on an equal basis.     

SECTORAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND PRICE-MARGINAL COST MARGINS IN THE INTERMEDIATE GOODS MARKET

Models of aggregate productivity growth linked to sectoral models of production typically assume that all intermediate goods markets are perfectly competitive. An econometric analysis reveals that many intermediate goods markets exhibit transactions at prices quite different than marginal cost. Measures of productivity growth that ignore these market imperfections are biased. A measure of the actual magnitude of the bias that emerges under the assumption of equating price to marginal cost is constructed.     

International Trade with Increasing Returns in the Transportation Sector

In this general equilibrium framework, the transportation sector is modeled as a distinct sector with increasing returns. A more advanced technology has a higher fixed cost but a lower marginal cost of production. Even with both manufacturing finns and transportation firms engaged in oligopolistic competition and optimally choosing their technologies, the model is tractable and results are derived analytically. Technology adoptions in the manufacturing sector and transportation sector are reinforcing, and multiple equilibria may exist. Firms choose more advanced technologies and the prices decrease when the size of the population is larger.     

Bitcoin—A hype or digital gold? Global evidence

This study explores whether Bitcoin constitutes as a hedging instrument whilst seeking portfolio diversification opportunities among sustainable, conventional and Islamic asset classes since Bitcoin emerges as a distinct alternative investment and asset class across the world. We apply multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-dynamic conditional correlation and continuous wavelet transforms based on the recent data set ranging from August 18, 2011, to September 10, 2018. First, our findings show that Bitcoin returns are mean-reverting which implies that its value tends to come down to mean value in the long run and not completely crushed to zero irrespective of price changes suggesting Bitcoin as a sustainable asset class. Second, the time-invariant model shows that Bitcoin offers portfolio diversification opportunities with almost all equity indices, in particular, Dow Jones Islamic followed by FTSE 4 Good index. Finally, the time-variant analysis reconfirms that Bitcoin offers portfolio diversification benefits both in the short and long run. These findings carry meaningful policy considerations for fund managers and cross-country investors.