我国进口机械设备的技术结构及其资本体现式技术溢出效应

文章利用1985-2007年世界107个国家SITC三位码分类下60多类机械设备进口数据,以出口品生产世界份额的相对权重,测度我国进口机械设备的技术含量和技术结构,并从产品层面构建进口机械设备技术水平与全要素生产率关系模型,检验进口机械设备的资本体现式技术溢出效应。结果显示:(1)我国进口机械设备的技术结构不断升级,中高技术含量和中等技术含量的机械设备进口比重逐年提高,低技术含量机械设备进口比重持续下降。(2)发达国家源于资金和人力资本优势主要引进高技术含量的机械设备,而包括我国在内的发展中国家受资金、技术水平和人力资源的约束,则以进口中等技术含量的机械设备为主。(3)我国进口机械设备的资本体现式技术溢出效应显著,但主要作用于非中性技术进步。     

Export-led Growth and Import Compression: Further Time Series Evidence From LDCs

This paper conducts tests of the export-led growth and the import-compression hypotheses for four less developed countries (LDCs) – India, Nigeria, Fiji and Papua New Guinea (PNG). Based on Johansen's multiple cointegration test preceded by unit root tests, we test for cointegration between real output, exports and imports. Non-rejection of cointegration between the variables excludes the possibility of Granger non-causality and suggests at least one way Granger causality. Real output, exports and imports are found to be cointegrated in two of the countries and the resulting error-correction models suggest that Granger causality runs from exports and imports to real output in these cases. Exogeneity tests are conducted for exports with respect to real output. However, while the assumption of weak exogeneity is validated in two of the countries, the null hypothesis of super exogeneity is rejected. The test results therefore cast doubts on policy recommendations for the LDCs based on the export-led growth hypothesis.     

The sustainability of the current account in the Czech Republic,Hungary and Slovenia

The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically the sustainability of the current account in three Central European countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia, since their move towards market economy about 15 years ago. The analysis is based on the intertemporal approach to the current account which states that if real exports and real imports are integrated of order one then cointegration between them is a necessary and sufficient condition for the economy to satisfy its intertemporal budget constraint. On the basis of various unit-root and cointegration tests on the shares of real exports and imports in real GDP, this study concludes that the Czech Republic and Slovenia are not in violation of their intertemporal budget constraint and their trade imbalances are sustainable. However, the real exports and imports of these countries, and also the export, import measures of Hungary, do not seem to behave as random walks, excluding the possibility of cointegration between them.      

Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade*

Though China's share of world trade exceeds that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available have two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Secondly, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally‐planned economy to a more market‐oriented one. We address these limitations with an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes China's decentralization period. We find that a 10 percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by nearly one percentage point. However, the estimated response of imports is negligible and lacks precision.     

Tourism,trade and growth: the case of Cyprus

Although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years, this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism. This study employs the bounds test for cointegration and Granger causality tests to investigate a long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, trade and real income growth, and the direction of causality among themselves for Cyprus. Results reveal that tourism, trade and real income growth are cointegrated; thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship can be inferred between these three variables. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that real income growth stimulates growth in international trade (both exports and imports) and international tourist arrivals to the island. Furthermore, growth in international trade (both exports and imports) also stimulates an increase in international tourist arrivals to Cyprus. And finally, real import growth stimulate growth in real exports in the case of Cyprus.     

The economic and trade effects of the UK–Korea free trade agreement on the United Kingdom,Korea, Japan,China, and the European Union

We explored a comparative static computable general equilibrium model with six regions and 12 sectors to estimate the impacts of the recent UK–Korea free trade agreement (FTA) along with the European Union (EU)–Korea FTA. The empirical results provide quantitative evidence of the impact on national GDP, national exports and imports by sector, and the changes in exports or imports among the United Kingdom, Korea, Japan, China, and the EU. The UK–Korea FTA, along with the EU–Korea FTA, increases GDP and welfare for the United Kingdom and Korea; moreover, there is a large increase in automobiles, transport equipment, and machinery exports between Korea and the United Kingdom. The GDP and welfare level of non-member countries such as Japan and China will slightly decline. Exports from the United Kingdom and Korea to non-member countries are also expected to decrease in most manufacturing sectors. The UK–Korea FTA will lead to increases in imports between the United Kingdom and Korea due to mutual trade creation effects and trade diversion effects. However, non-member countries such as Japan's exports are expected to experience a large decline in automobiles to the United Kingdom and in most manufacturing products to Korea due to the negative impact of the UK–Korea FTA.     

Japanese and US Trade with China: A Comparative Analysis

The paper provides a simple comparative analysis of Japanese and US trade with China. In recent years, Japanese exports to China had been growing faster than US exports, but Japanese imports from China had been growing more slowly. A large amount of US and Japanese exports were first shipped to Hong Kong, and then re-exported to China. In 1994, Japan's largest export item to China was general machinery, while US largest export item to China was transportation equipment. According to the rivalry index constructed in the paper, competition in 1994 between US and Japanese firms was most intense in the chemical goods sector.     

外国直接投资对我国国际贸易贡献的实证分析

FD I与我国进出口贸易总额、出口总额、进口总额之间都存在长期均衡关系,而且我国出口贸易的FD I弹性系数要大于我国进口贸易的FD I弹性系数,即FD I对我国出口贸易的贡献要大于其对进口贸易的贡献。通过建立的误差修正模型,研究了FD I与进出口贸易总额、出口总额、进口总额之间由非均衡向长期均衡状态动态调整的过程。     

Are shocks to the terms of trade shocks to productivity?

International trade is frequently thought of as a production technology in which the inputs are exports and the outputs are imports. Exports are transformed into imports at the rate of the price of exports relative to the price of imports: the reciprocal of the terms of trade. Cast this way, a change in the terms of trade acts as a productivity shock. Or does it? In this paper, we show that this line of reasoning cannot work in standard models. Starting with a simple model and then generalizing, we show that changes in the terms of trade have no first-order effect on productivity when output is measured as chain-weighted real GDP. The terms of trade do affect real income and consumption in a country, and we show how measures of real income change with the terms of trade at business cycle frequencies and during financial crises.     

Exports,Imports and Income in Taiwan: An Examination of the Export Led Growth Hypothesis

Cointegration and vector autoregression are used to examine relationships among exports, imports, and income in Taiwan from 1971 to 1995. These three series are cointegrated. There is bidirectional Granger causality between exports and imports, and between imports and income. Impulse responses and variance decompositions uncover only weak links from exports to income. The export led growth hypothesis is not supported for Taiwan during this period of rapid growth. [F1, F4, O0]     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Trade flows,relative prices,and effective exchange rates: a VAR on Ethiopian data

The dynamic response of trade flows to price and effective exchange rate changes is examined via VAR using quarerly data from Ethiopia for the period 1973(i)–1985(iv). The results show one-way Granger-causality running from prices and exchange rates to imports and exports without significant feedback. Imports and exports exhibit similar response patterns to unexpected changes in relative prices and exchange rates. The responses of imports and exports are larger and the adjustment takes longer when relative prices rather than exchange rates caused a change in international prices. In the long-run, changes in prices account for a larger percentage of the forecast error variances in imports and exports than exchange rate changes. It is shown that devaluation may have an initial adverse effect on the trade balance.     

对中国国际贸易与FDI相互关系的重新检验

This paper studies the long-term relationship between FDI and imports and exports through evidence from China by using cointegration technology, and the Granger causality test shows that FDI had an obvious effect on imports and exports activities of foreign firms, and in the meantime, the imports and exports of foreign firms greatly promoted FDI. However, there is not a stable equilibrium between FDI and international trade in the long run for all firms in China. This paper provides some explanations for the possible reasons that cause the above difference in estimation results from the perspectives of both location and industry factors.      

EXCHANGE RATE PROBLEMS IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*

Developing countries which typically have import surpluses and inflationary pressures because of insufficient savings are prone to use indirect taxes on imports (Tm) and subsidization of exports (Sx) in order to prevent deterioration of the balance of trade. If these substitutes for devaluation are included in the net indirect tax component of product at current market prices (Ym) the import surplus is likely to be understated, and Ym upward biased. This distortion will be avoided if imports and exports are measured at effective exchange rates (ER), that is, at official rates (OR) plus Tm and Sx respectively, and if (Tm - Sx) is deducted from the net indirect tax component of Ym. Only in this manner become imports and exports consistent with the other uses and resources at market prices and can be articulated with them. At base-year prices the volume index of product at OR diverges from that of ER to the degree that the composition of imports and exports in regard to tax and subsidy rates computed ad valorem significantly changes. Such a case is similar to that of the price indexes of imports and exports moving in diverging proportions: the trade balance at base-year prices will differ from that at current prices. The resulting discrepancies in national accounts have led to proposals of deflating, for example, exports by the price index of imports. Suchlike approaches are incompatible with the principle of national accounting that prices are supposed already to measure substitution values. Deflating exports by import prices means reintroducing substitution values, as does, for example, deflation of incomes by a consumer price index. Correspondingly, since the trade balance at ER conceptually expresses the value of imports at domestic market prices as compared to the corresponding domestic market value of exports, and if at ER the trade balance diverges from that at OR, the former balance has an important meaning (as has the trade balance at base-year prices as compared to that at current prices) and the resulting discrepancy between the two measures should not be removed merely for the sake of accounting smoothness. In contrast to the market price approach, the measurement of product at base-year factor cost is indifferent to the measurement of the trade balance at ER and at OR. It is, therefore, proposed in countries in which part of import taxation and export subsidization substitutes for devaluation, to record imports and exports in the national accounts at effective exchange rates, and to correct the net indirect tax component of product correspondingly. Imports and exports at official exchange rates should be shown within the balance of payments, and the latter separately as a memorandum item.     

On the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Constraints to the Real Side of the Economy

Contrary to the predictions of the theory underlying international finance, inflows of capital triggered by financial liberalisation have neither equalised real interest rates nor increased income growth in many emerging economies. We explain this puzzle by developing a model that combines the balance‐of‐payments constraint approach to economic growth with a less stringent version of the real interest rate parity hypothesis. The model’s foundations are based on robust empirical findings or well‐established macroeconomic models. We show that a perverse combination of income elasticities of demand for imports and exports generates slow income growth and high real interest rates. As domestic income grows and imports rise faster than exports, the real exchange rate is expected to depreciate in order to clear the balance of payments (or the foreign exchange rate market). An incipient capital outflow arises and interest rates increase. Faster adjustment in capital rather than in the goods market therefore generates a higher real interest rate differential between the domestic small open‐economy and the rest of the world. The long run analysis shows that a constant degree of risk aversion implies a positive equilibrium real interest rate differential that affects economic growth. A permanent increase in default risk driven by persistent current account imbalances thus impacts on long run growth. The model’s results are illustrated with evidence from the three major Latin America economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.     

Does the role of observer countries in the regional trade agreement matter for intra-regional trade ?

This article investigates the effects of trade by observed economies on the intra-regional trade by South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) members using Poison pseudo maximum likelihood estimator (PPML) gravity models with panel data over the period 2008–2014. Eight SAARC members and eight observed countries, including the EU, are analysed in capturing the trade effect of observed economies on intra-regional trade in SAARC. This article provides an empirical measure of observers’ trade, FDI and Official development assistance (ODA) with SAARC if the exports and imports of observers to/from SAARC have positive or negative signs for intra-regional exports and imports. The results show that the exports and imports of observers to SAARC members have positive effects on bilateral exports among the members. The FDI of observers reduces the bilateral intra-imports in SAARC and ODA also has a negative effect on bilateral exports among the members. These results imply that the imports by SAARC members from observer countries increase intra-regional trade in the region. The FDI and ODA increase and decrease intra-regional trade in SAARC, respectively, implying that the policies for both FDI inflow from observers and efficient aid management are needed to increase regional welfare. The study also recommends that trade between SAARC members and its observers help to increase intra-regional trade in SAARC.     

LABORS INFLUENCE ON THE BALANCE OF THE USA'S MERCHANDISE ACCOUNTS

The results found here indicate that American labor does influence importantly the level of imports and exports of manufactures in the US. In particular, imports tend to be lower and exports tend to be higher in those industries in which higher skilled American workers are used more abundantly. Moreover, labor efficiency and productivity also influence inversely the level of imports and directly the level of exports.     

An econometric analysis of freight rate disparities in US liner trades

This paper tests an economic rationale for freight rate discrimination in US liner shipping. Rate disparities are explained in terms of differences in the price elasticities of demand for imports and exports. Higher freight rates for US exports reflect the fact that exports are less price elastic than imports.     

Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis

In contrast to cross-country studies, the paper investigates the relationships between trade and labour productivity for nine rapidly developing Asian countries in a time-series framework using a vector error-correction model. Independent tests on the long-run and short-run relationship between trade variables of exports and imports and productivity are conducted. The results suggest that trade has an important impact on productivity and output growth in the economy, however it is imports that provide the important?‘virtuous’?link between trade and output growth. The results indicate that exports and imports have qualitatively different impacts on labour productivity. The long-run result shows that there is no causal effect from exports to labour productivity growth for Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan and Thailand; thereby suggesting that there is no export-led productivity growth in these countries. However, significant causal effects were found from imports to productivity growth, suggesting import-led productivity growth in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan. In addition, the results indicate that imports tend to have greater positive impact on productivity growth in the long run.     

Causality Between Exports,Imports and Income In Trinidad and Tobago

This study examines the relationship between exports, imports and income in the economy of Trinidad and Tobago, using the methodology of Granger causality and error correction modeling. Our results show that there is unidirectional Granger causation from exports to income (GDP), and bidirectional causation between exports and imports and imports and income. The Economy of Trinidad and Tobago is a petroleum exporting economy where oil-export booms raise income levels, but this is usually followed by a slump. The bivariate models should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of omitted variable bias. [F14, C22]