外围经济异动对中国经济发展的影响度剖析

外围经济出现异动,必然影响到外贸依存度偏高的中国经济的发展,因此,中国必须未雨绸缪,防范于未然,积极采取相应措施,如增加居民收入、缩小收入差距、提高社会保障水平等,以保证中国经济的平稳发展。     

出口非正常低价分析

我国出口贸易中存在的非正常低价现象,不利于我国对外贸易乃至整个国民经济的持续健康发展。本文对这种非正常低价进行归纳分析,提出界定方法,并从产业结构、企业和监管三个方面分析其产生的原因,认为非正常低价的"株连效应"会使质量过得硬的"中国制造"也受到牵连、诘难。政府和企业应共同努力,促使出口产品价格的理性回归。     

股票市场的异常现象:基于行为金融理论的解释

本文首先阐释了行为金融理论的五种行为模型,然后运用这五种行为模型解释股票市场中传统金融理论难以解释的过度反应等异常现象。行为金融理论为理解我国股票市场提供了一个很好的分析视角和新的切入点。     

Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue

In this introductory paper we introduce the special issue on “Backcasting for Sustainability”. We present briefly a historical background, and position backcasting in the wider context of future studies, in which it can be related to “normative forecasting” and normative scenarios. We reflect on the diversity and variety of backcasting studies and experiments, as presented in the ten papers for this special issue. After summarizing the papers we formulate a future research agenda.     

Super-modularity: Applications to convex games and to the greedy algorithm for LP

L. S. Shapley (Internat. J. Game Theory1 (1971), 11–26) showed that if a game is convex, then all the marginal worth vectors are members of the core. J. Edmonds (in “Combinatorial Structures and Their Applications” (R. Guy et al., Eds.), pp. 69–87, Gordon & Breach, New York, 1970) considered a class of linear programming problems for which the greedy algorithm works. The present paper unifies these studies, and establishes the converse of each theorem.     

Reaching for the stars: the appointment of celebrities to corporate boards

For a sample of over 700 celebrity appointments to corporate boards of directors over the period 1985–2006, we find positive excess market returns at the time of their announcement. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year long-run performance of the appointing firms provide corroborating evidence of the value of these appointments. We conclude that the appointment of celebrities as directors increase a firm’s visibility in a fashion consistent with Merton’s (J Finance 42:483–510, 1987) investor recognition hypothesis.     

Bidding for the Surplus : A Non-cooperative Approach to the Shapley Value

We propose a simple mechanism to determine how the surplus generated by cooperation is to be shared in zero-monotonic environments with transferable utility. The mechanism consists of a bidding stage followed by a proposal stage. We show that the subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes of this mechanism coincide with the vector of the Shapley value payoffs. We extend our results to implement the weighted Shapley values. Finally, we generalize our mechanism to handle arbitrary transferable utility environments. The modified mechanism generates an efficient coalition structure, and implements the Shapley values of the super-additive cover of the environment. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C71, C72.     

Physiological constraints and the transition to growth: implications for comparative development

It is a well known fact that economic development and distance to the equator are positively correlated variables in the world today. It is perhaps less well known that as recently as 1500 C.E. it was the other way around. The present paper provides a theory of why the ‘latitude gradient’ changed sign in the course of the last half millennium. In particular, we develop a dynamic model of economic and physiological development in which households decide upon the number and nutrition of their offspring. In this setting we demonstrate that relatively high metabolic costs of fertility, which may have emerged due to positive selection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator, would work to stifle economic development during pre-industrial times, yet allow for an early onset of sustained growth. As a result, the theory suggests a reversal of fortune whereby economic activity gradually shifts away from the equator in the process of long-term economic development. Our empirical results give supporting evidence for our hypothesis.

     

Experimental approach to the determination of the demand for public goods: A comment

The paper argues that the Kurz experiments to elicit demand schedules for public goods will yield biased information if they are repeated. An alternative procedure is proposed.     

Cost-effectiveness of denosumab vs zoledronic acid for prevention of skeletal-related events in patients with solid tumors and bone metastases in the United States

Abstract

Objective:

With increasing healthcare resource constraints, it has become important to understand the incremental cost-effectiveness of new medicines. Subcutaneous denosumab is superior to intravenous zoledronic acid (ZA) for the prevention of skeletal-related events (SREs) in patients with advanced solid tumors and bone metastases. This study sought to determine the lifetime cost-effectiveness of denosumab vs ZA in this setting, from a US managed-care perspective.

Methods:

A lifetime Markov model was developed, with relative rate reductions in SREs for denosumab vs ZA derived from three pivotal Phase 3 trials involving patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), breast cancer, and non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and bone metastases. The real-world SRE rates in ZA-treated patients were derived from a large commercial database. SRE and treatment administration quality-adjusted life year (QALY) decrements were estimated with time-trade-off studies. SRE costs were estimated from a nationally representative commercial claims database. Drug, drug administration, and renal monitoring costs were included. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results:

Across tumor types, denosumab was associated with a reduced number of SREs, increased QALYs, and increased lifetime total costs vs ZA. The costs per QALY gained for denosumab vs ZA in CRPC, breast cancer, and NSCLC were $49,405, $78,915, and $67,931, respectively, commonly considered good value in the US. Costs per SRE avoided were $8567, $13,557, and $10,513, respectively. Results were sensitive to drug costs and SRE rates.

Limitations:

Differences in pain severity and analgesic use favoring denosumab over ZA were not captured. Mortality was extrapolated from fitted generalized gamma function beyond the trial duration.

Conclusion:

Denosumab is a cost-effective treatment option for the prevention of SREs in patients with advanced solid tumors and bone metastases compared to ZA. The overall value of denosumab is based on superior efficacy, favorable safety, and more efficient administration.     

市场定位:我国零售业面对入世的战略选择

加入WTO，给我国的零售业带来了巨大的挑战。至于我国零售业如何应对，应把市场定位作为我国零售业面对入世的战略选择。     

QDII——股市不能承受之重?

<正>2005年1月10日,平安保险17．5亿美元获国家外汇管理局批准投资海外市场,此举被市场视为合格境内机构投资者QDII的前奏。同时也表明平安、中国人寿、中国人保三家海外上市的保险公司首次公开发行(IPO)所获筹资将在海外市场谋求更高的投资收益。     

The propensity to return: Theory and evidence for the Italian brain drain

Return migration is the positive counterpart of the brain drain. The effects of the brain drain in Italy could be negative: this paper shows that highly skilled migrants decide not to return to their native country.