Savings and technology choice for risk averse farmers

Farmers in developing countries have limited opportunities for borrowing to even out variability associated with risky farm income, but they can save. A dynamic programming model of savings is presented in the current paper which examines optimal savings strategies for farmers, using a case study of integrated rice–shrimp farms in Vietnam. It is shown that when savings are accounted for, the expected utility ranking of different risky farm choices may not differ that much between farmers with different levels of risk aversion.     

Farmers’ perceptions and management of risk in rice/shrimp farming systems in South-West Coastal Bangladesh

Farmers in Bangladesh face considerable risk due to fluctuations in biophysical and economic conditions, but the response to these risks is poorly understood. In particular, there is a need to better understand the endogenous management of risk in the rice/shrimp farming systems that have emerged in the inner coastal zone of Bangladesh. This paper draws on a case study of a typical rice/shrimp farming village in Khulna District to explore: (a) farmers’ perceptions of risks and their management responses, (b) risk-return trade-offs within small-, medium-, and large-farm households, and (c) the role of other farm and non-farm activities in mitigating risks to household livelihoods. Farm-level data were collected through a reconnaissance survey, a village census, household case studies, and a sample survey of 73 households. Representative farm budgets were constructed for the three farm-size classes. The key performance indicators calculated were gross margin (GM), net income (NI), and GM per workday of family labour. The riskiness of the rice/shrimp system was assessed for each farm type using farmers’ estimates of low, normal, and high yields and prices to specify triangular distributions. Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for GM, NI, and GM per workday were generated. A whole-farm economic analysis was also conducted to assess the relative contributions of different sources of income for each farm type. With access to saline water for shrimp farming in the dry season and fresh water for rice in the wet season, farmers have developed and progressively adapted an alternating rice/shrimp farming system that has minimised the trade-offs between the two crops and provides a good return to household and village resources for all farm types. The system is subject to significant production and market risks, especially the shrimp component. However, farmers have clearly perceived these risks and ameliorated them through a range of production, marketing, and management strategies. With these risk management practices, the rice/shrimp cropping system is economically viable, given the current variation in yields and prices. The greater risk associated with the shrimp component was offset by the renewed stability of the rice component over the past decade, and the risks of the whole cropping system were offset by other farm and non-farm sources of livelihood. Development interventions need to work with farmers to provide further options (suitable rice varieties, solutions to shrimp disease, improved village and transport infrastructure) if this resilience is to be maintained.     

The effect of decoupling on marginal agricultural systems: Implications for farm incomes,land use and upland ecology

In many parts of Europe, decades of production subsidies led to the steady intensification of agriculture in marginal areas. The recent decoupling of subsidies from production decisions means that the future of farming in these areas is uncertain. For example, in the uplands of the United Kingdom, an area important both for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, hill farmers steadily increased stocking densities in response to headage payments but must now reconfigure farm businesses to account for the shift to the Single Farm Payment scheme. We examined hill farming in the Peak District National Park as a case study into the future of marginal agriculture after decoupling. We surveyed 44 farm businesses and from this identified six representative farm types based on enterprise mix and land holdings. We developed linear programming models of production decisions for each farm type to examine the impacts of policy changes, comparing the effects of decoupling with and without agri-environment and hill farm support, and evaluating the effects of removal of the Single Farm Payment. The main effects of decoupling are to reduce stocking rates, and to change the mix of livestock activities. Agri-environmental schemes mediate the income losses from decoupling, and farmers are predicted to maximise take up of new Environmental Stewardship programmes, which have both positive and negative feedback effects on livestock numbers. Finally, removal of the Single Farm Payment leads to negative net farm incomes, and some land abandonment. These changes have important implications for ongoing debates about how ecological service flows can be maintained from upland areas, and how marginal upland farming communities can be sustained.     

A study of economic efficiency of Iranian farmers in Ramjerd district: an application of stochastic programming

An extension of utility-efficient programming to the non-linear discrete stochastic programming method was developed and used in the analysis of the economic efficiency of a sample of farmers in Iran. The results indicate that it would be feasible to increase substantially farmers' total net revenue by increasing their economic efficiency in terms of technical and allocative efficiencies. The study further suggested that risk aversion plays an important role in farmers' behaviour. The sample farmers are risk averse and hence are likely to trade higher expected profits for lower risk. Understanding this characteristic is important for interventions intended to raise farm productivity and efficiency.     

Effect of yield and price risk on conversion from conventional to organic farming*

Although the benefits of organic farming are already well known, the conversion to organic farming does not proceed as the Dutch government expected. In order to investigate the conversion decisions of Dutch arable farms, a discrete stochastic dynamic utility‐efficient programming (DUEP) model is developed with special attention for yield and price risk of conventional, conversion and organic crops. The model maximizes the expected utility of the farmer depending on the farmer’s risk attitude. The DUEP model is an extension of a dynamic linear programming model that maximized the labour income of conversion from conventional to organic farming over a 10 year planning horizon. The DUEP model was used to model a typical farm for the central clay region in the Netherlands. The results show that for a risk‐neutral farmer it is optimal to convert to organic farming. However, for a more risk‐averse farmer it is only optimal to fully convert if policy incentives are applied such as taxes on pesticides or subsidies on conversion, or if the market for the organic products becomes more stable.     

INCOME TAX DATA AND FARM FINANCIAL STATISTICS

Tracing the income patterns of individual farm operators whose major source of income is generally derived from farming indicates that off-farm income is becoming an increasingly important income component. The relative importance of off-farm income has nearly quadrupled during the last 20 years, rising from about 10 percent of total income to about 37 percent of total income. Most of this off-farm income can be traced to wages and salaries. These fractions are heavily dependent upon relative income levels. In 1970, very low income farmers posted an aggregate net farm loss whereas the $15,000 - $20,000 class secured about three-quarters of their total income from farm sources. In this same year, wages and salaries were generally the prime off-farm income source for farmers with an assessed income of less than $20,000. Dividends and interest were more important to farmers with an income in excess of $20,000. These differences are faithfully reflected in the regional compilations. As a percent of total income, off-farm income ranged from 41 percent in Ontario to about 29 percent in Quebec. The composition of off-farm sources also varies considerably between regions. In 1970 the income position of taxable unincorporated farm operators (who relied on the farm for their major source of income) remained relatively unfavorable. These farmers still had one of the lowest average incomes of any major occupational class in Canada, with an income distribution which was relatively equally distributed between income classes and not unlike that of the national average. These assessed income statistics, of course, are not necessarily indicative of the welfare position of the respective occupational classes. The calculations conducted are simply illustrative of how income tax statistics can be utilized to facilitate our understanding of the income structure in primary agriculture today. The exercise simply underlines the observation that: The fact that there are conceptual differences between income tax data and other data sources should not detract from the usefulness of the income tax data …. Income tax statistics can stand as an independent data source for the analysis of a variety of issues [13]. For many purposes the tax definition of a farm operator may be more operational than the concept of a farmer as defined in the Census of Agriculture. We might profit considerably from further analyses which attempt to disaggregate Census farms into more homogeneous farm-types using the tax statistics available.     

On the Role of Risk Versus Economies of Scope in Farm Diversification With an Application to Ethiopian Farms

This article investigates the economics of farm diversification. The analysis assesses economies of diversification using a certainty equivalent measure. It identifies two components: one associated with expected income, and one associated with risk exposure. This integrates two lines of research explored in previous literature: economies of scope and risk management. We examine the roles played by complementarity, scale and concavity effects in economies of diversification. The approach is applied to diversification decisions made on Ethiopian farms, with a focus on production uncertainty. The econometric analysis finds large complementarity benefits, providing incentives to diversify. But this is tempered by (non)‐concavity effects that provide incentives to specialise. The analysis also documents how risk affects diversification, including both variance and skewness effects. It provides new insights on economic tradeoffs between farm diversification and specialisation.     

Contract farming,contract design and smallholder livelihoods*

Contract farming has gained in importance in many developing countries. Previous studies analysed effects of contracts on smallholder farmers’ welfare, yet mostly without considering that different types of contractual relationships exist. Here, we examine associations between contract farming and farm household income in the oil palm sector of Ghana, explicitly differentiating between two types of contracts, namely simple marketing contracts and more comprehensive resource-providing contracts. Moreover, we look at different income sources to better understand how both contracts are linked to farmers’ livelihood strategies. We use cross-sectional survey data and regression models. Issues of endogeneity are addressed through measuring farmers' willingness-to-participate in contracts and using this indicator as an additional covariate. Farmers with both types of contracts have significantly higher household incomes than farmers without a contract, yet with notable differences in terms of the income sources. Farmers with a marketing contract allocate more household labour to off-farm activities and thus have higher off-farm income. In contrast, farmers with a resource-providing contract have larger oil palm plantations and thus higher farm incomes. The findings suggest that the two contract types are associated with different livelihood strategies and that disaggregated analysis of different income sources is important to better understand possible underlying mechanisms.     

SENSITIVITY OF FARM PLANS UNDER RISK-AVERSE BEHAVIOUR: A NOTE ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS

This study demonstrates that the intensity of farm-level land use can be extremely sensitive to minor reductions in expected farm income when the risk-averse farmer makes utility maximising decisions. The study uses directly elicited utility functions for farmers in the North of England in conjunction with MOTAD generated E, V frontiers. The results imply that instability encourages the use of less intensive farming methods and therefore could actually assist the achievement of environmental policy goals.     

Nonpecuniary Benefits to Farming: Implications for Supply Response to Decoupled Payments

We develop a household model wherein farmers allocate labor to maximize utility from leisure, consumption, and nonpecuniary benefits from farming. The model shows that farmers with decreasing marginal utility of income respond to higher decoupled payments by decreasing off-farm labor and increasing farm labor, resulting in greater agricultural output. We then estimate the difference between farm and off-farm returns to labor using data from three nationally representative farm household surveys. The finding of a large on-farm/off-farm wage differential provides compelling evidence of substantial nonpecuniary benefits from farming.     

Farm and farmer characteristics and off‐farm work: evidence from Algeria

Off‐farm work is a widespread, two‐edged, phenomenon that can help both the survival and the demise of small‐ and medium‐sized agricultural exploitations. Given the prevalence of poverty in rural areas, nonfarm income has been credited with helping farmers to survive. But the observed shrinking of rural areas has also raised the question of whether off‐farm work is pulling farmers permanently away from farming. This paper explores the impact of farmer characteristics on the decision to work off‐farm in developing countries where this phenomenon has been largely neglected. A review of theory and prior empirical work suggests four main hypotheses which we test empirically. The results suggest that while some farmer characteristics appear to be universal, others appear to be country‐ or culture‐specific.     

To plant or not to plant—Irish farmers’ goals and values with regard to afforestation

To encourage Irish farmers to transfer land into forestry, a premium scheme supporting farmers who afforest was implemented in 1989 and afforestation targets outlined in 1996. In the period from 1996 to 2006, however, only half of the targeted area was planted in Ireland. As the income of many farmers would improve when joining the scheme, a number of studies have been conducted to find out why the response was not as expected. However, to date the phenomenon has not been explained. Amongst the studies undertaken, a lack of qualitative approaches looking at farmers’ decision-making was identified. In order to understand farmers’ decisions regarding farm afforestation, in-depth interviews with 62 farmers in the North-West and Mid-Western regions of Ireland were conducted in winter and spring 2011. The interviews were based on the theory of farmers’ goals and values developed by Ruth Gasson in 1973 and relate specifically to their instrumental, intrinsic, social and expressive values about farming. The results of this study show that farmers exhibit complex, multiple and sometimes contradictory values in relation to farming. The biggest group in the study were guided by intrinsic values when it comes to farm afforestation. Their decision not to plant is made based on their values and beliefs about farming, e.g. that it is a shame to plant land used for food production, even if this returns a greater profit. A much smaller group were directed by profit maximisation when it comes to afforesting land. These farmers would plant if the financial incentives for forestry were more attractive, e.g. if the premiums available for afforestation were higher or if the outlook for agricultural profits was not as good as anticipated.     

Risk preference and optimal enterprise combinations in Kahuro division of Murang'a district, Kenya

Financing smallholder farming has been one of the major concerns of Kenya's agricultural development efforts. Many credit programs have evolved over the years but with dismal performance. In a study that sought to find the best way to finance smallholder agriculture, it became necessary to analyze and document, in the first place, the farmers' preferred enterprise patterns. Any financial innovations would hence address the preferred patterns. Of particular interest was the effect of risk preference on such patterns, which had been ignored in many previous farm management studies. Murang'a district was chosen as a typical smallholder district. Sample farmers, obtained through cluster sampling, were visited and structured questionnaires administered to cover farm events and physical resources of short rains 1995 to long rains 1996. This formed a basis for formulating the farm patterns. A quadratic programming model was used to analyze observed farm plans. The model incorporates farmers' risk preferences, revenue fluctuations, and resource and subsistence restrictions. The results showed that: (1) changes in risk preference do affect the optimal crop combinations; (2) the typical cropping pattern is rational as the farmer meets both food and cash under modest variability of income; (3) insisting on producing most subsistence food requirements by the farmers reduces efficiency and limits the feasible plans.     

A Partial Adjustment Model of Federal Direct Payments in Canadian Agriculture

Delays in direct payments to Canadian farmers reduce the income loss protection that is provided by federal income stabilization and related programs. This issue is examined using Statistics Canada federal direct payment and net farm income data from 1981 to 2010. An estimate of the reduced protection against farm income loss that can be attributed to payment delays is obtained using a simple partial adjustment model, first with and then without the assumption of a constant rate of adjustment over time. The results point to a highly significant reduction in program effectiveness that can be attributed to delays in direct payments. There is no evidence to support the common belief that payment delays have significantly increased since the introduction of the Canadian Agricultural Income Stabilization program in 2003.     

CONCEPTS AND MEASUREMENT OF THE INCOMES,WEALTH AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING OF FARMERS

Concern over the incomes of farmers has been a fundamental but ill-defined component in the agricultural policies of the UK and many other industrialised countries. Attention is drawn to the inability of the UK's annual White Paper aggregate income figure to reveal much of the income position of farm families. Current income from farming is only a partial measure of the potential spending power of farmers: many have off-farm sources of income which must be taken into account when, for example, assessing poverty and these sources appear to be growing in relative importance. In the longer term, capital gains form part of the returns to landowning farmers but are usually ignored. The frequently-found combination of low current incomes and great wealth has prompted the use of a measure of economic status which combines the two. A prime requirement appears to be a more precise statement of the aims of income policy and the use of income measures most appropriate to the circumstances.     

A PRINCIPLE COMPONENT ANALYSIS OF INPUTS IN A PRODUCTION FUNCTION

A production function fitted on data for 232 production regions of the South African Agriculture, yielded negative signs for the land and machinery inputs. The inputs were then transformed into standardised orthogonal variates. A production function was derived from the orthogonal variates by dropping components that contributed little to the resource variation. The t-values in the latter function showed a substantial improvement on that of the first function, and the machinery input turned positive. A component analysis on all the input factors, including farm income, indicates that farmers pay a premium for extensive farming land which is not reflected in their income. This may be attributed to more leisure time enjoyed by livestock farmers, or more satisfaction derived from this type of farming.     

On Measuring Farmers' Economic Weil-Being

A measure broader than net farm income has been used to examine the economic well-being of farmers. The composite measure incorporating farm returns to labor and management, off-farm income, and net worth values, shows Canadian farmers' economic well-being has improved in real terms since 1967. However, disparity in the measure among provinces has increased. Off-farm income and annuities of net worth have increased in importance, relative to the total economic well-being measure, though at different rates in different provinces, and should not be ignored in agricultural policies and programs.
Two related issues require further attention. One is to examine the interaction of money income and asset ownership within the farm sector; the other is to provide comparison groups in the non-farm sector which take into account money income and net worth. The annuity approach to net worth may provide an appropriate instrument for comparison.     

Why Farmers Quit: A County-Level Analysis

We identify the effects of alternative explanatory variables on the propensity of U.S. farmers to cease farming, with a particular emphasis on understanding the roles of off-farm employment and federal farm program payments. Conventional ordinary least squares analysis using all counties suggests that off-farm employment has no statistical effect on the (net) number of farmers quitting between 1987 and 1997, ceteris paribus . A more refined analysis, which separates counties losing farmers from those that gained farmers, reveals subtle and less clear-cut effects of off-farm employment (and federal program payments) on farm exits.     

Risk analysis of new maize technology in Zaire: a portfolio approach

Risk associated with the adoption of new maize technology and the impact of mandatory cotton production on traditional farmers in the Kasai Oriental Region of Zaire are evaluated within a portfolio context using a quadratic programming model. Seasonal net returns for farm plans including four levels of maize technology in combination with staple food crops are evaluated, with and without mandatory cotton production. The results indicate that cropping systems that include new maize technology are risk-efficient relative to local maize varieties while mandatory cotton production is not risk-efficient at the prevalent price and yield levels in the farming system.     

Worth the Risk? The Behavioural Path to Well‐Being

There is increasing interest in the ‘economics of happiness’, reflected in the volume of articles appearing in mainstream economics journals exploring the major determinants of self‐reported well‐being. We contribute by exploring the factors influencing how satisfied farmers are with their quality of life. We find that farm income, subjective perceptions relating to the adequacy of household income, debt, health and personal characteristics such as age and relationship status are significantly associated with farmers’ self‐reported life satisfaction. While significantly associated with farm income, farm structural variables such as farm size, farm type and the presence of a farm successor were not found to be significantly related with life satisfaction. Our results also suggest that farmers who are more risk averse enjoy significantly lower levels of both life satisfaction and farm income than their more risk seeking or risk neutral counterparts. We suggest that, in the same way that risk aversion inhibits farmers from making choices that could lead to an increase in their income, it may also constrain farmers (and the wider public at large) from engaging in certain types of behaviours that could lead to an increase in their self‐reported quality of life. Finally, we find that while farm income is significantly related to self‐reported life satisfaction, the direct correlation between these variables is weak, suggesting that farmer life satisfaction can be distinct from business success.