New borders: Evidence from the former Soviet Union

New Borders: Evidence from the Former Soviet Union. — We study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Estimating a gravity equation on 1987–1996 trade between nine Russian regions and fourteen FSU republics, we find that Russian regions traded nearly twice as much with each other as with republics in the reform period (1994–1996). In contrast, they did not trade significantly more with each other than with republics in the prereform period (1987–1990). Our results suggest that the bias towards domestic trade in the reform period is primarily a result of tariffs. We also find that past linkages, such as infrastructure, production and consumption chains, and business networks, have limited the reorientation of trade.     

Pakistan and the socialist countries: Trade and aid

The economic relations between Pakistan and the socialist countries are examined against their political background. The sharp deterioration in Pakistan's political relations with the socialist countries in the 1950s was accompanied by a contraction in trade, which had almost been a one-way flow until the early 1960s, consisting of Pakistan's exports. The political rapprochement with the socialist countries following the 1962 Sino-Indian clash coincided with a tremendous spurt in trade, largely under the aegis of barter trade agreements. Trade turnover increased fivefold in the sixties and Pakistan became a recipient of socialist aid. An examination of the structure of trade reveals that Pakistan's exports to the socialist countries diversified considerably less than total exports, but that the terms of trade were more favourable. The quantity, kinds, and sources of socialist aid are also examined.     

Soviet oil and the third world

The paper explores various aspects of the relationship between the Soviet Union and the Third World countries in the field of the oil industry. It begins with a historical account of the growth of the Soviet oil industry, and its ownership pattern. But the core of the essay is the role played by the ‘Soviet oil offensive’ in the 1960s and its success in weakening the grip of the oil trade in the disintergration of the world-parity-pricing system, and the emergence of OPEC as a powerful factor in the political economy of world oil. In the final section, the paper assesses the role of Soviet oil exports in the present world context and in the future.     

Trade creation,trade diversion,and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union

This paper presents an industry-level analysis of trade flows in order to estimate the trade effects of Turkey’s customs union with the European Community (EC). The paper is able to distinguish between trade creation and trade diversion by employing tariff data on each good to measure the impact of not only the tariff level but also the difference between tariffs applied to imports from Europe and the most-favored nation tariffs applied to imports from other non-preferential trading partners. The paper estimates the general equilibrium effects of the customs union in addition to the effects of eliminating tariffs on the EC’s exports to Turkey. It concludes that the customs union has generated more than twice as much trade creation as trade diversion but that the overall impact of the customs union has been relatively small.     

The impact of trade facilitation factors on South Africa's exports to a selection of African countries

Economic growth can be enhanced through increased trade among countries, provided the correct institutional structures are in place. A country's trade is dependent not only on its own trade facilitation reforms but also on those of the trading partners. This paper, using an augmented gravity model, examines trade facilitation factors that impact on South Africa's exports to other selected African countries. The results of the estimation reveal the following. An improvement in the customs environment within the importing country provides the largest gain in terms of increasing trade flows, followed by the regulatory environment and domestic infrastructure. Furthermore, adjacency and common language impact positively on South African exports, while distance between countries impacts negatively on it. Being part of the Southern African Development Community is also enhancing exports from South Africa, compared with being part of the East African Community.     

Dynamic effects of institutions on firm-level exports

The gap between theoretically predicted trade patterns and actual trade suggests that our understanding of what shapes trade patterns is incomplete. Institutional barriers may be one factor behind this gap, and recent research suggests that institutions are a greater obstacle to trade than tariffs. Using detailed firm-level data, we analyze how institutional quality in recipient countries affects exports by Swedish firms. Our results suggest that weak institutions in recipient countries make exports to these countries less likely and that exports to countries with weak institutions are characterized by relatively short duration and small volume. Analyzing long-term trade flows, we identified a learning process where exporters become less dependent on institutional quality in the target economy over time. More specifically, in addition to previous research that emphasize learning related to knowledge about the contracting partner and rule of law, we extend this notion and show that there is also a learning process where firms acquire knowledge about the general business climate. When learning about the contractual partner and business institutions in recipients countries takes place, exports increase relatively quickly during the first 2 years of exports and thereafter levels out. Hence, firms that are initially sensitive to weak institutions, start small, and learn how to handle foreign institutions are likely to be most successful in maintaining long-term relationships with foreign markets.     

Asymmetric Effect of Currency Union for Developing Countries

The large effect of currency union on trade volume has been well documented by Rose (2000). However, the effect of currency union on trade balance has hardly been previously reported. In this study, the effect of currency union is found to differ substantially across imports and exports when a developing country trade with developed country that anchors the currency. To ensure that the asymmetric effect does not come from the specific nature of countries that have adopted a common currency or endogeneity of currency union, we test the same hypothesis using nominal exchange rate volatility and real exchange rate level.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Foreign aid as a promotional strategy

Developed countries are motivated by several forces when allocating aid to developing countries. The forces could be humanitarian in one country, and commercial self-interests in another. The principal objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness of aid as a promotional strategy for trade, and to investigate whether major donor countries are optimally allocating their aid resources to increase their export and total trade. Models were developed to explore the effectiveness of aid as a promotional instrument for exports and total trade. Donor exports and total trade were expressed as functions of aid, per capita GNP of the recipient country, and aid from competing donors. The study showed that exports and total trade responded to total expected aid contributions and per capita GNP of the recipient countries. Also, all donors, but one, were maximizing the returns to aid, given the level of trade with recipient countries and will be reluctant to increase aid flows, given the current trade level.     

Exchange Rate Regime,Real Exchange Rate,Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Morocco

Abstract: We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000 (annual data). We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (the NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows (exports and imports). The misalignments also affect the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a reduction in Morocco exports, to an increase in Morocco imports, and globally to a deterioration of the trade balance with the European Union. On the other hand, neither the volatility nor the misalignments have an effect on foreign direct investment in favor of Morocco.     

Trade in factor income and the US-China trade balance

US multindoational enterprises sell considerable amounts of products to China's domestic consumers that are “made” in either China or other countries. However, these sales are not counted as US exports to China. To account for this, we propose a beyond-borders approach to measuring trade flows that explicitly considers firm ownership, termed “trade in factor income (TiFI),” that defines the US-owned factor income induced by China's final demand as US exports to China. Applying this approach to OECD data, we find that on average from 2005 to 2016 in TiFI terms, US exports to China were 20.34% and 8.21% greater, China's exports to the US were 1.64% and 16.04% less, and the US trade deficits with China were 17.4% and 32.0% less than the trade figures reported in value added and gross terms, respectively. The concept of TiFI transforms trade measures from a territory-based “made in” label to a factor income-based “created by” label.     

Outsourcing and skill-specific employment in a small economy: Austria after the fall of the Iron Curtain

We set up a model, in which firms in a small industrializedcountry outsource part of their production to a foreign economy,which is rich in low-skilled labour. We analyse, how a declinein trade costs affects outsourcing activities and the productionstructure in the small economy. A stimulation of cross-borderoutsourcing raises wage dispersion and, if labour markets areunionized, also the employment of high-skilled relative to low-skilledlabour. Using a panel of Austrian industries, we find, first,that decreasing trade barriers—as observed after the fallof the Iron Curtain—indeed stimulate outsourcing to Centraland Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, and, second,that outsourcing to these countries significantly shifts relativeemployment in favour of high-skilled labour.     

版权保护对美国出口影响的实证分析

本文采用引力模型,对美国与不同国家的贸易截面数据进行实证分析显示,美国核心版权产品由于版权保护水平的的提高,对强模仿威胁国家(低保护高模仿)会带来显著的市场扩张效应;增加美国核心版权产品的出口,对弱模仿威胁国家(高保护低模仿)会带来显著的市场力量效应,会使美国出口下降。     

Monetary Unions in Historical Perspective: What Future for the Euro in the International Financial System

This paper discusses the introduction of the euro in the present international monetary context. European Monetary Union is not only an economic concept but also primarily a political one. Based on past experience, two aspects of monetary union seem essential: the nature of the future European Central Bank and the necessity that monetary union is implemented with a fiscal union. The euro's success on world markets, as a dollar substitute, depends on monetary authorities' credibility in targeting low-inflation, and on fiscal authorities' reputation. A central bank that does not respond to a political authority can cause social difficulties, especially if social policies are left in the hands of single countries and fiscal transfers, to support these policies, are not allowed     

中美关系正常化过程中的苏联因素

20世纪70年代很多因素促成了中美关系的正常化。苏联作为社会主义阵营的领导者,在中美关系正常化的过程中发挥了重要的作用。本文将用史论结合的方法对中、美、苏三国关系进行分析,探索中美关系正常化过程中的苏联因素。     

Aid-for-trade facilitation

‘Aid for Trade’ is an ongoing and high-profile discussion associated with the Doha negotiations of the World Trade Organization. It also relates to questions of how best to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Questions remain, however, about whether foreign aid spent on trade facilitation increases trade flows of developing countries. Does it work differently from aid in general? Using detailed data on aid flows from the OECD, the analysis here estimates the relationship between specific types of aid and trade flows, both globally and of the aid recipients. The findings indicate that aid spent on promoting trade is positively associated with global trade. For most types of such aid-for-trade facilitation, it is relatively more strongly associated with recipient exports than their imports. In contrast ‘other’ types of aid are more strongly associated with recipient imports. Based on elasticities estimated over 16 years of trade and aid data for 40 donor countries and about 170 country trading pairs, our results suggest that a 1% increase in aid-for-trade facilitation (of about US220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 290 million of additional exports from the aid receiving countries.     

Breaking up a customs union: The case of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1919

Breaking Up a Customs Union: The Case of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1919. — This study has used new estimates of the gravity model to analyze the effects on European trade patterns in the mid-1920s of the break-up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and its customs union after World War I. The gravity equation has been found to explain 70 percent of the variance of the trade flows of the principal trading nations in 1924–26. Moreover, the ties between the former members of the Austro-Hungarian Empire remained stronger than any other commercial relationship in Europe. They were second only in intensity — given economic and demographic factors — to those of the British Empire.     

Too Far Away, Too High and Too Stable: The EEC and Trade with Australia During the 1960s

The EEC of the 1960s had little reason to prioritize trade with Australia: trade flows were too small and political ties between Australia and continental Europe too weak. That trade with Australia did become an issue of concern is thus largely due to Britain's 1961 EEC application. The shape of the deal that looked like emerging in 1961–3 was, however, highly ungenerous – a fact which reflected both the nature of Australian exports and a strong European belief that Australia was less 'deserving' than other Commonwealth countries. Australian relief at de Gaulle's veto may, however, have been premature, since early British membership of the Community might well have been in Australia's medium-term commercial interest.     

Foreign trade in the process of transformation in Poland

Poland was the first post-Communist country to introduce a marketization and stabilization program. A decline in production and the growth of unemployment followed. Now, Poland is first among those countries to experience recovery. When austere monetary, fiscal, and income policies drastically reduced domestic absorption, and the Soviet market collapsed, exports to the West expanded fast. They served as the engine of growth and resulted in a rapid redirection of trade towards the West. The present dependence of export growth on devaluations will only be eliminated when inflation is eradicated, and this depends, like the continuing limitation of domestic absorption, on political factors.     

国外对华反倾销的经济与政治动因

中国是世界上遭遇反倾销诉讼最多的国家,以反倾销为手段的贸易保护已经成为制约中国对外贸易可持续发展的巨大障碍。本文重点分析对华反倾销的成因,探究进口国宏观经济和政治因素对反倾销行为的影响。研究发现:各国对华反倾销立案的宏观经济与政治动因存在显著的差异性。本文揭示了各国对华反倾销立案的内在动因,得出了具有价值的比较研究结论。