公路工程投标与索赔的技巧

国内各个施工企业的整体内部管理水平相差不大,要保证工程项目顺利实施和工程项目多盈利、企业取得良好的经济效益,在同行业中站稳脚跟,重点就是要在投标报价时和在施工过程中的变更与经济索赔,我们根据近些年公路工程投标和变更索赔的实践,简要介绍施工企业如何在投标决策阶段和施工中的经济索赔。     

Economic uncertainty and national bitcoin trading activity

This study analyzes the dynamics between bitcoin trading, price activities, and economic surprise shocks from a broad and novel perspective on a national level. We start by estimating the response of bitcoin trading in terms of volume and volatility to economic surprises. Following this, we extend our framework by applying a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model to get an indication of the volatility reaction of national bitcoin activities to economic surprise shocks. Our results show that local and global shocks affect local bitcoin activities and trading volatilities, confirming that economic events affect bitcoin markets. We argue that increased trading activity, coupled with a price reaction, indicates that bitcoin might be considered a hedge or safe haven asset against economic uncertainty. We find evidence that bitcoin is treated as a speculative asset against negative economic policy uncertainty shocks in Canada pre-Covid-19. These results change during the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to a significant structural break. Here, we find indications that bitcoin might be treated as a safe-haven asset in New Zealand and Australia. This shows that bitcoin behaves differently depending on the studied country, underlining the importance of country-level studies. It also shows that bitcoin is a new asset that is evolving rapidly and that the period in which it is studied is important.     

Price gap anomaly in the US stock market: The whole story

This paper analyses the price gap anomaly in the US stock market (comprised of the DJI, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) covering the period 1928 to 2018. This paper aims to investigate whether or not price gaps create market inefficiencies. Price gaps occur when the current day’s opening price is different from the previous day’s closing price due orders placed before the opening of the market. Several hypotheses are tested using various statistical tests (Student’s t-test, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney test), regression analysis, and special methods, that is, the modified cumulative returns and the trading simulation approaches. We find strong evidence in favour of abnormal price movements after price gaps. We observe that during a gap day prices tend to change in the direction of the gap. A trading strategy based on this anomaly was efficient in that its results were not random, indicating that this market was not efficient. The momentum effect was found to be temporary and no evidence of seasonality in price gaps was found. Lastly, our results were also contrary to the myth that price gaps tend to get filled.     

Suppressing Insider Trading

Writing in Economic Affairs, Vol. 7, No. 5, Hugh High, Professor of Accounting and Finance at Massey University, New Zealand, argued that attempts to suppress insider trading would both impede the workings of the market and trample basic individual liberties. Edgar Palamountain, Director of the Esmee Fairbairn Charitable Trust, takes issue with Hugh High: insider trading, he claims, is not victimless and should be outlawed by statutory sanction. Hugh High defends his corner.     

Wage claims in the British private sector: 1979–2003

Wage claims have been an important feature of British industrial relations during the postwar period. They help set the boundaries within which wage negotiations take place and provide an insight into the conduct of negotiations, especially during periods of change in industrial relations. Despite this, claims remain an underinvestigated area. This article provides a unique investigation of the dimensions of wage claims over a period of free collective bargaining. The number of wage claims declined along with unionisation but, over a period of economic turbulence, the conduct of British wage setting began to change. We examine data on claims and investigate the influences on changes in those claims over time. We find that external factors (inflation, unemployment and legislative control of unions) were more prominent in shaping the development of claims than changes in the composition of groups who continued to post claims.     

长株潭地区二氧化硫排污权交易框架构建研究

排污权交易作为一种市场环境下保护自然环境的一项经济政策,越来越得到国内外的普遍重视与应用。长株潭城市群作为“两型社会”改革试验区,对推动中部崛起,协调东、中、西部平稳较快发展,具有重要意义。结合长株潭地区s2的实际排放情况,对长株潭地区实行s02排污权交易进行必要性和可行性分析。根据长株潭地区建立so2排污权交易框架的原则,建立了相应的排污权交易框架,为长株潭建立排污权交易体系建立提供参考。     

构建吉林省排污权交易制度的必要性

"十二五"期间,吉林省经济发展面临新的挑战,对环境保护提出新的要求。本文在分析国内排污权交易制度和吉林省环境经济政策的基础上,结合吉林省经济发展情况,提出吉林省实施排污权交易制度已具备成熟的条件,具有实施排污权交易制度的必要性。     

Program Trading and Stock Index Futures: Blessing or Bane?

'Program trading'and stock index futures and options are often blamed for stock market volatility, and especially so after the Crash. Professor Tyler Cowen, of the University of California at Irvine, claims that these new trading techniques have not added to volatility and that regulation could well increase it.     

低碳经济背景下中国企业碳交易博弈模型初探

能源消费所产生的碳排放是经济发展过程中不可避免的副产品,目前我国已成为世界最大的温室气体排放国。碳交易是利用市场机制引领低碳经济发展的必由之路,对我国企业在碳交易进行博弈分析,具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。本文对我国大企业和中小企业分别进行了完全信息静态博弈分析、不完全信息静态博弈分析,并求出了企业双方达到纳什均衡后的碳交易量及交易价格。     

Market undervaluation of risky convertible offerings: Evidence from the airline industry

We assess market valuation of airline convertible preferred stocks using a contingent claims valuation model that was extensively tested by Ramanlal et al. (Rev Quant Financ Account 10:303–319, 1998). Our sample consists of 4,096 daily price observations of 11 convertible preferred stocks issued by the U.S. airlines in 1980–1991. For each convertible we estimate daily model prices for 2 years after issuance and compare them with market prices by calculating pricing errors. While the entire sample’s mean pricing error is found to be negative 3.8%, the panel data analysis and the mean pricing errors of the sub-samples indicate that the undervaluation is much more severe in the first 6 months of trading. The results suggest that airlines leave about 10% on the table when they raise capital by issuing convertible securities.     

对我国区际经济与金融差距关联性的实证分析

各区域间金融发展的差异对经济发展差距有无影响以及影响机制如何成为经济学研究的一项任务。以塞尔指标衡量我国经济与金融发展差距,发现我国区域间经济发展差距与金融发展差距呈现一致的变动关系,且金融差距大于经济差距。由此引出的基本判断是我国区际经济差距的逻辑原因有金融因素,进而采用格兰杰因果关系检验判断我国省际金融发展与经济增长间的关系,从中可以明确我国东部地区金融成长偏重于内生状态,而中西部地区更倾向于外生状态。考虑到改革的总体方向,并借鉴东部地区的经验,放松金融抑制、催化内生金融成长无疑是全面促进中西部经济发展的必然选择。     

Beating the market? A mathematical puzzle for market efficiency

The efficient market hypothesis is highly discussed in economic literature. In its strongest form, it states that there are no price trends. When weakening the non-trending assumption to arbitrary short, small, and fully unknown trends, we mathematically prove for a specific class of control-based trading strategies positive expected gains. These strategies are model free, i.e., a trader neither has to think about predictable patterns nor has to estimate market parameters such as the trend’s sign like momentum traders have to do. That means, since the trader does not have to know any trend, even trends too small to find are enough to beat the market. Adjustments for risk and comparisons with buy-and-hold strategies do not satisfactorily solve the problem. In detail, we generalize results from the literature on control-based trading strategies to market settings without specific model assumptions, but with time-varying parameters in discrete and continuous time. We give closed-form formulae for the expected gain as well as the gain’s variance and generalize control-based trading rules to a setting where older information counts less. In addition, we perform an exemplary backtesting study taking transaction costs and bid-ask spreads into account and still observe—on average—positive gains.

     

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE PROFITABILITY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS?

Abstract.  The purpose of this paper is to review the evidence on the profitability of technical analysis. The empirical literature is categorized into two groups, 'early' and 'modern' studies, according to the characteristics of testing procedures. Early studies indicate that technical trading strategies are profitable in foreign exchange markets and futures markets, but not in stock markets. Modern studies indicate that technical trading strategies consistently generate economic profits in a variety of speculative markets at least until the early 1990s. Among a total of 95 modern studies, 56 studies find positive results regarding technical trading strategies, 20 studies obtain negative results, and 19 studies indicate mixed results. Despite the positive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies, most empirical studies are subject to various problems in their testing procedures, e.g. data snooping, ex post selection of trading rules or search technologies, and difficulties in estimation of risk and transaction costs. Future research must address these deficiencies in testing in order to provide conclusive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies.     

Carbon management accounting and financial performance: Evidence from the European Union emission trading system

Companies are responding to the effects of climate change by reducing CO₂ emissions as a way of managing stakeholder interests and complying with legal and regulatory requirements. In Europe, the emissions trading system is consolidated as a limiting market and control scheme to support business climate change management through a collaborative relationship between government and industry. This work focuses on the economic accounting field, analysing carbon management accounting and its impact on financial performance in scenarios attached to that trading system. The methodological approach used is quantitative, empirically testing the hypotheses through a multiple regression analysis with a sample of 350 European companies. The results attest to the importance of carbon management accounting (CMA) control and its effects on financial performance. Compared with European emission trading, the results failed to display significant differences in the relationship studied between those that make up this type of market and those that do not.     

Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets

Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices.     

国外券商自营业务风险控制及对我国券商的启示

风险控制是证券自营业务风险管理的核心环节,是证券公司自营业务风险管理的关键所在。国外券商在自营业务风险控制方面各具特色且个性鲜明。在对国外著名券商自营业务风险控制分析的基础上,比较了国内券商与国外券商自营业务风险控制的差距。国外券商已经逐步形成一整套比较成热、完善的自营业务风险控制系统,对于我国证券公司自营业务风险控制改进有借鉴意义。     

The Foreign Exchange Exposure Management Practices of Finnish Industrial Firms

This study employs questionnaire survey and financial accounting data to extend earlier empirical work on the foreign exchange (FX) exposure management practices of Finnish industrial firms. The paper concentrates on: (i) the form that FX corporate hedging policy takes; (ii) the control of FX procedures and trading; and, (iii) our respondents' perceptions about their ability to predict FX rate changes for hedging decisions. Our results indicate that the extent to which firms hedge FX exposure depends on the type of exposure and the form that FX hedging policy takes. Also, a significant number of the firms pursue FX hedging strategies on the expectation of attaining trading profits and this strategy appears to be accommodated within their FX policies. This feature is not explicitly demonstrated in previous studies. Finnish firms hedge a much higher proportion of both transaction and translation exposures compared to economic exposure. We partly attribute this emphasis to the requirements of the Finnish Accounting Act, which came into effect in 1993. The organisational, historical and financial settings of the firms also have significant impacts on exposure management practices. The overall implication of those results is that firms respond to changes in the financial, economic and regulatory environments in which they operate.     

浅析我国的对外贸易选择——从斯密的自由贸易理论与李斯特的保护贸易理论角度

在经济全球化进程加速的今天,面对错综复杂的国际环境,在贸易自由化进程中,应充分考虑国家的整体利益和根本需要并把握一个合理的度,遵从贸易自由理论的历史性,从而选择合适的对外贸易政策。     

The paradox of China's growing under-urbanization

It is commonly believed that China began the socialist era as a very under-urbanized country relative to its level of development and that it has been eliminating this urbanization gap during the post-1978 period as a result of its economic reforms. Our reexamination of the relationship between per capita income and urbanization that underpins the conventional view suggests that China was not under-urbanized before or during the early period of the reform. Actually, China's urbanization gap appeared and grew in the late period of reform despite mass migration from rural to urban areas. This growing urbanization lag is mainly due to the slow pace in eliminating restrictions on rural–urban migration during a period of rapid economic growth. We call attention to this emerging urbanization lag as it entails significant economic costs in employment and retards economic growth.     

The role of the informal sector in investment in Sub-Saharan Africa

For a long time economic researchers condemned the existence of a huge informal sector in economies, viewing it as a deterrent to investment, growth and development. This view is however being confronted with intense criticism particularly in developing countries where formal unemployment is rapidly growing and poverty widely spreading, which in turn is leading to an expanding informal sector. Thus alternative schools of thought that view the informal sector as a source of livelihood to the unemployed and poor have subsequently been developed. However, not much empirical work has been carried out to validate any of these theoretical claims, particularly in African economies. This paper attempts to fill this gap. The findings of the study indicate that there is a positive relationship between informal sector activities and investment. These results suggest a review of the standard thinking towards the role of the informal sector in development.