Infrastructural change and secular economic development

Long-term economic development is determined by changes to the infrastructure, especially material and non-material infrastructural networks that link agents in different locations. The infrastructure consists of the slowly changing, collective arena that supports production, exchange, and consumption, such as the built environment, transport networks, and institutions. In the short run the infrastructure can be regarded as fixed. Changes to the infrastructure are under normal conditions small enough to be disregarded by producers and consumers. With the creation of a critical link of a network, there will however be a revolutionary restructuring of the arena. Critical links are here defined as additions to infrastructural networks that create opportunities for new information and transport flows between previously unconnected regions. Such a revolutionary restructuring of infrastructural networks has been called a logistical revolution. Certain institutional pre-conditions are necessary for a logistical revolution, while the creation of a critical link is both a necessary and a sufficient condition. This paper discusses the three logistical revolutions that occurred in the 13th century, around 1600, and in the 19th century, which each had crucial similarities with the current “information revolution.”     

Economic and environmental performance of wastewater treatment plants: Potential reductions in greenhouse gases emissions

Sanitation and wastewater treatment are essential for protecting human health and environmental sustainability. Treatment processes are not free of environmental impacts; consequently assessment of the environmental performance of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) has gained interest in recent years. Unlike other methods, a direct approach is followed to estimate environmental performance indicators (EPIs) using data envelopment analysis (DEA), i.e. an index of overall performance is directly obtained. The present study represents pioneering work to integrate environmental impacts in the assessment of the efficiency of WWTP estimating pure (PEPI) and mixed (MEPI) environmental performance indices for a sample of 60 Spanish WWTPs. Both direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were considered as undesirable outputs. The best functioning WWTPs to be used as references were identified, and the potential for GHG reductions was quantified. A second-stage analysis was conducted to isolate factors affecting WWTP environmental performance. The results of this study are valuable for WWTP operators and policy makers, since the benchmark procedure allows support for environmental and managerial decision-making.     

Pollution and life expectancy: How environmental policy can promote growth

This article investigates the influence of environmental policy (EP) on growth in an AK-type growth model, when finite lifetime is introduced and the link between pollution and life expectancy (through the detrimental impact of pollution on health) is taken into account.Using an overlapping generations model à la Blanchard [Blanchard, O. (1985). Debt, deficits and finite horizon. Journal of Political Economy, 93:223-247], we demonstrate that finite lifetime introduces a “generational turnover effect” which modifies the influence of the EP on growth. Thus, when lifetime is finite and independent from pollution, we show that the “generational turnover effect” limits the detrimental impact of the EP on growth, if agents smooth their consumption over time. When pollution negatively influences life expectancy through health, we demonstrate that the “generational turnover effect” is magnified and that the EP and growth have an inverted U-shaped relationship in the steady-state. In this case, we show that the environmental policy is more likely to promote growth (i.e. it stimulates growth for a wider range of environmental taxes) when the impact of pollution on health is important and/or public expenditures in health are low. Finally, using numerical simulations, we find that for the value of parameters that we have chosen, the EP will be more likely to promote growth when agents smooth consumption over time.     

环境不平等降低了居民幸福感吗？——基于中国综合社会调查（CGSS）微观数据的实证研究

本文通过将省级、城市数据与中国综合社会调查（Chinese General Social Survey,CGSS）微观数据相匹配,在测度环境基尼系数基础上,采用Probit和中介效应模型研究了环境不平等对居民幸福感的影响路径。结果表明：工业废水测度下的环境不平等显著降低了居民幸福感,而工业二氧化硫和工业烟粉尘测度下的环境不平等却显著提高了居民幸福感。环境不平等对居民幸福感的影响存在区域和城乡异质性,环境不平等对东部地区居民幸福感的影响大于中西部地区;工业废水测度下的环境不平等对城镇居民的影响比农村居民大,工业废气则相反。在环境不平等影响幸福感的路径中,经济增长和健康状况是重要的作用机制,经济增长发挥了显著的正向调节作用和中介作用,健康状况只发挥中介作用。因此,加强环境治理,统筹区域和城乡协调发展,坚持经济建设与改善居民健康状况,对新时代中国政府提高居民幸福感,走出“伊斯特林悖论”有重要意义。     

The effect of infrastructure on invention : Innovative capacity and the dynamics of public construction investment

The association between public infrastructural investment and invention is explored in this study, analyzing expenditure and patenting trends and cycles over much of the 20th century. First, innovative capacity, an endogenous indicator of US innovation potential based on invention patent output, is conceptualized and discussed. A major shift in invention modes is shown to have occured over seven decades (1920–1989) as corporate, rather than individual, invention became the most important national source of innovative capacity. The support of public infrastructure for invention is then analyzed, considering its most important characteristics and supportive functions, and its expenditure patterns over seven decades. The analysis of the infrastructural investment and the innovative capacity age cycle dynamics reveals a remarkable association between educational infrastructure construction and both aggregate and corporate innovative capacity. Time-series statistical analyses provide further insights on the effects of infrastructural investment on invention, showing that corporate patenting tends to benefit more from public infrastructural construction and that educational infrastructure expenditures provide a stronger association with both aggregate and corporate inventive performance.     

The power of incrementalism: environmental regulation and technological change in pulp and paper bleaching in the US

This article explores environmental regulation as a driver of technological change through a case study ofthe US pulp and paper industry. It analyses two sets of variables that influence the pace and direction of environmentally oriented technological change: industry structure and regulatory design. As would be expecded from a mature productive unit, when confronted with environmental challenges, the US pull, and paper industry demonstrates a strong preference for incremental technological change. The case suggests that the traditional approaches to standard-setting in the US have not challenged this preference. For the pulp and paper industry, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the strategic advantages of alternative technologies, due to uncertainly in further environmental regulation and the relatively small difference in cost between incremental and radical innovations for may mills. This case suggests that an alternative approach for promoting the diffusion of environmental enhancing radical innovations in mature productive units is to long-term goals for environmental improvement.     

The power of incrementalism: environmental regulation and technological change in pulp and paper bleaching in the US

This article explores environmental regulation as a driver of technological change through a case study ofthe US pulp and paper industry. It analyses two sets of variables that influence the pace and direction of environmentally oriented technological change: industry structure and regulatory design. As would be expecded from a mature productive unit, when confronted with environmental challenges, the US pull, and paper industry demonstrates a strong preference for incremental technological change. The case suggests that the traditional approaches to standard-setting in the US have not challenged this preference. For the pulp and paper industry, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the strategic advantages of alternative technologies, due to uncertainly in further environmental regulation and the relatively small difference in cost between incremental and radical innovations for may mills. This case suggests that an alternative approach for promoting the diffusion of environmental enhancing radical innovations in mature productive units is to long-term goals for environmental improvement.     

中国电力行业环境效率及其影响因素研究 ——基于2008—2017年省级面板数据

本文采用SBM超效率模型,对2008—2017年中国30个省份电力行业环境效率进行测度,并开展空间差异和空间自相关分析.结果表明:中国电力行业环境效率还比较低;呈现出东部高于西部、西部高于中部的走势;各年度不同省份的电力行业环境效率差异显著;且存在空间依赖性.通过Tobit回归实证显示:中国电力行业环境效率的影响因素存在区域显著性差异;经济规模水平、电源结构、技术水平、燃煤效率对中国电力行业环境效率具有促进作用;人口水平对中国电力行业环境效率具有反向作用.最后提出了提升中国电力行业环境效率的政策建议.     

Knowledge dynamics in a network industry

In this paper, we model the impact of networks on knowledge growth in an innovating industry. Specifically, we compare two mediums of knowledge exchange: random interaction, and the case in which interaction occurs on a fixed architecture. In a simulation study, we investigate how the medium of knowledge exchange contributes to knowledge growth under different scenarios related to the industry's innovative potential. We measure innovative potential by considering the extent to which knowledge can be codified, and the available technological opportunities. Our results tend to support the conjecture that spatial clustering generates higher long-run knowledge growth rates in industries characterized by highly tacit knowledge, while the opposite is true when the degree of codification is important.     

环境约束下的中国服务业全要素生产率增长

已有文献在测算服务业全要素生产率时,基本都没有考虑环境因素,而这种传统的全要素生产率测算方法由于忽视了环境污染问题的存在,并不能反映服务业生产率增长的真实绩效,甚至会误导政策建议。文章将环境因素引入服务业生产率体系,运用基于DDF的M almquist-L uenberger生产率指数对中国2004－2013年服务业分行业 T FP进行再估算,并结合M almquist生产率指数和服务业环境友好指数进行对比分析。研究发现,两种情形下服务业 T FP增长的主导因素都在于技术进步,忽视环境因素不仅高估了服务业全要素生产率的增长率,而且高估了其对服务业增长的贡献,环境因素对服务业增长绩效存在影响。环境约束下服务业 T FP影响因素的实证结果显示,服务业 FDI并不支持“污染天堂假说”,适当的环境规制在改善环境质量的同时还可以促进服务业生产率的提升,服务业发展水平、研发资本、禀赋结构和公众的环保意识对服务业环境 T FP也存在不同程度的影响。     

Collective voluntary agreements to eliminate polluting products

Recently some industries have collectively agreed not to produce models of a product that do not meet an environmental standard. We present a model to examine a voluntary agreement of this type. The conditions under which an agreement is profitable include the stringency of the agreement, the relative performance of the greener product, industry size and the number of participants. While an agreement can be profitable for all firms (both participants and non-participants), i.e., all firms can be better off with the agreement than without it, nonetheless, a free-rider incentive exists. Thus, despite the potential for a profitable agreement, absent an effective enforcement mechanism, the agreement is not part of a Nash equilibrium. We suggest that this provides a possible explanation for the initial success of the European washing machines agreement, as well as a recent move by the industry to abandon the voluntary approaches and call for mandatory standards.     

Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments

When large, discrete technological improvements require the accumulation of research or infrastructural investment over time, growth paths display cyclical patterns even in the absence of any shocks. Particularly interesting equilibrium features of these cycles include declines in output and asymmetries in the cyclic patterns displayed during expansions and recessions.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: E22, E32, O41.     

Efficient decentralized fiscal and environmental policy: A dual purpose Henry George tax

One consequence of decentralized responsibility to set tax policy and environmental standards is that local governments might try to attract industry and jobs by underproviding local public goods with lower taxes or lax environmental standards or both. But if local authorities exploit fixed property site (i.e., land) taxation to fund local public goods, affect firm migration, and internalize potential local emission rents, herein we find decentralized efficiency is supported. This result reflects a dual form of the classic Henry George theorem previously overlooked.     

Environmental policy instruments and imperfectly competitive international trade

Policy makers, industrialists and environmentalists express concern that the imposition of tough environmental policies in some countries displaces production, and hence pollution, to countries which impose less tough environmental policies. Yet empirical studies of such impacts suggest they are small. However, these findings are derived from models in which international trade is modelled as being perfectly competitive. In this paper I model trade as imperfectly competitive with scope for strategic behavior by producers, in this case investment in capital. I show that the choice of environmental policy instrument can have a marked impact on the incentives for producers to act strategically, with environmental standards significantly reducing the incentives for strategic overinvestment relative to environmental taxes or no environmental policy at all. Whether welfare is higher using standards or taxes depends on whether producing countries are also significant consumers of the polluting product, and on whether all producing governments act to reduce emissions or only some subset of governments. To assess the quantitative significance of these theoretical results I conduct policy simulations on a calibrated model of the world fertilizer industry. These simulations show that the impact of environmental policy on strategic behaviour can be large.     

The need for combining IEA and IE tools: The potential effects of a global ban on PVC on climate change

Over the last decades the concepts of Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) and Industrial Ecology (IE), both claiming to provide analyses and solutions for sustainability issues, have been developed separately as they emerged in response to questions from different policy-fields. In both fields, specific tools are used to support national and international environmental policy. The focus of IEA and IE tools, however, is different. IEA tools focus on one or a limited number of specific environmental issues. They often model the chain environmental processes with high spatial (and temporal) resolution, but have a low resolution for the material structure of the economy and only partly take into account indirect effects that occur via physical and socio-economic linkages. IE tools take into account all environmental issues related to a specific substance or product. They have a high resolution for the material structure of the economy and take into account indirect effects that occur via physical linkages, however, their environmental modelling is very limited. Both IE and IEA tools have proven to be very useful and neither is superior to the other. However, a combination of both can provide additional information that can be used for more effective policy making. We use the case of a hypothetical world-wide ban on PVC to show that a measure that is not directly related to climate change could still have significant climate effects. This indirect effect is a result of the linkages of material flows in society. We show that IEA tools are not well suited to include these types of effects and that IE tools can fill this gap partially. What is really needed is a broader systems perspective that takes into account the full range of possible side-effects of environmental policy measures.     

Environmental Policy with Endogenous Technology from a Game Theoretic Perspective: The Case of the US Pulp and Paper Industry

The merits of different types of regulatory tools in eliminating pollution and at the same time inducing innovation have long been an interest of researchers in both environmental economics and industrial organization. Although there is a substantial theoretical literature investigating the potential for various environmental policies to attain these dual goals, this is a challenging empirical problem because every industry has its own inherent characteristics that play an important role in determining the performance of different regulatory tools. The majority of the work to date focuses on pollution abatement while leaving pollution prevention understudied. In most of the literature firms are also assumed to be symmetric. Asymmetries among firms add another degree and level of complexity to their strategic interactions, and affect the performance of different regulatory tools. This paper investigates the performance of two alternative regulatory tools, an emissions performance standard and an emissions tax, in reducing pollution and inducing pollution prevention and abatement R&D in the US pulp and paper industry. We construct a model representing the industry in an asymmetric Cournot duopoly framework, calibrate the model to disaggregated industry data, and run scenarios to replicate the behavior of the firms in an imperfectly competitive output market. Our results suggest that pollution prevention R&D can respond quite differently than abatement R&D to different policy instruments. The results indicate that R&D spillovers among firms play crucial role in technology development and strategies of the firms. Our results also suggest that strategic interactions between firms in an imperfectly competitive industry can have significant impacts of the levels of both types of R&D.      

Hybrid input-output analysis of wastewater treatment and environmental impacts: A case study for the Tokyo Metropolis

This paper proposes a new hybrid input-output model designed to analyze both the generation and treatment of wastewater. This model, named wastewater treatment input-output model (WWIO), can be regarded as an extension of the waste input-output model (WIO) (Nakamura, S. and Kondo, Y., 2002. Input-output analysis of waste management. Journal of Industry Ecology, 6(1): 39-63.). As an application, I compiled the Tokyo Metropolitan WWIO table for 2000, which comprises 482 economic sectors, 11 wastewater treatment sectors, 12 types of wastewater-related waste and 6 types of environmental load. The model was applied to different scenarios to compare alternative wastewater treatment systems. The results indicate that replacing the simple treatment with the high-class treatment improves the quality of treated water while increasing CO₂-equivalent emissions. Meanwhile, when the dewatered sludge is incinerated instead of landfilling, both CO₂-equivalent emissions and landfill volume decrease.     

The impact of carbon cap and trade regulation on congested electricity market equilibrium

Greenhouse gas regulation aimed at limiting the carbon emissions from the electric power industry will affect system operations and market outcomes. The impact and the efficacy of the regulatory policy depend on interactions of demand elasticity, transmission network, market structure, and strategic behavior of generators. This paper develops an equilibrium model of an oligopoly electricity market in conjunction with a cap-and-trade policy to study such interactions. We study their potential impacts on market and environmental outcomes which are demonstrated through a small network test case and a reduced WECC 225-bus model with a detailed representation of the California market. The results show that market structure and congestion can have a significant impact on the market performance and the environmental outcomes of the regulation while the interactions of such factors can lead to unintended consequences.     

Environmental efficiency and labour productivity: Trade-off or joint dynamics? A theoretical investigation and empirical evidence from Italy using NAMEA

In this paper we test an adapted EKC hypothesis to verify the relationship between ‘environmental efficiency’ (namely emissions per unit of value added) and labour productivity (value added per employee). We exploit NAMEA data on Italy for 29 sector branches and 6 categories of air emissions for the period 1991-2001. We employ data on capital stock and trade openness to test the robustness of our results.On the basis of the theoretical and empirical analyses focusing on innovation, firm performances and environmental externalities, we would expect a positive correlation between environmental efficiency and labour productivity — a negative correlation between the emissions intensity of value added and labour productivity — which departs from the conventional mainstream view. The hypothesis tested is a critical one within the longstanding debate on the potential trade-off or complementarity between environmental preservation and economic performance, which is strictly associated with the role of technological innovation. We find that for most air emission categories there is a positive relationship between labour productivity and environmental efficiency. Labour productivity dynamics, then, seem to be complementary to a decreasing emissions intensity in the production process. Taking a disaggregate sector perspective, we show that the macro-aggregate evidence is driven by sector dynamics in a non-homogenous way across pollutants. Services tend always to show a ‘complementary’ relationship, while industry seems to be associated with inverted U-shape dynamics for greenhouse gases and nitrogen oxides. This is in line with our expectations. In any case, EKC shapes appear to drive such productivity links towards complementarity. The extent to which this evidence derives from endogenous market forces, industrial and structural change, and policy effects is discussed by taking an evolutionary perspective to innovation and by referring to impure public goods arguments.     

Asian development pathways and sustainable socio-technical regimes

Rapid industrialisation in Asia is generating a significant new demand for raw materials and pressure on local, regional and global environments. In the future these demands and pressures are expected to increase markedly. These concerns are models of development that assume that economic growth follows a pattern leading to a convergence between the structure, growth and productivity of economies over the long run. In these models, the structure of industries and sectors, technological capabilities and consumer preferences are regarded as converging towards patterns established in more advanced economies. By extension, convergence is also assumed to hold for the resource intensity and environmental pressure associated with growth in industrialising countries. This paper argues for greater attention to the resource and environmental quality of development. It argues that by applying ideas from an emerging literature on ‘systems innovation’ it becomes possible to envisage the emergence of new, more resource-efficient socio-technical systems as the basis of more sustainable development pathways in developing Asia. Such sustainable socio-technical systems will emerge in the context of interaction between domestic and globalised markets, knowledge flows and governance. Key issues for a research agenda are set out.