Causality of interest rate,exchange rate and stock prices at stock market open and close in Hong Kong

By an ARIMA approach and verified by the Granger causality tests, the causality of daily interest rate, exchange rate and stock prices in Hong Kong were explored for the period 1986 to 1991. Depending on the subperiods being considered, sporadic unidirectional causality from closing stock prices to interest rate, and weak bi-directional causality between stock prices and the exchange rate were found. The overall evidence, however, appears to show that the Hong Kong market efficiently incorporated much of the interest rate and exchange rate information in its price changes both at daily market close and open.The author would like to acknowledge helpful comments from two anonymous referees, helpful suggestions by Dr Daniel Cheung and research assistance from Theresa Tam. This project is supported by a research grant from the Institute of Social Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.     

Distinguishing costs of cooperation and control in alliances

Firms simultaneously face the need to cooperate with and control an alliance partner. To complement the transaction cost perspective's emphasis on the need to control and limit opportunistic behavior, we examine the sources and impact of the cooperation costs incurred in order to work with a partner. We propose that these costs increase with greater joint task complexity and interpartner diversity, and perceptions of equitable behavior affect the perceptions of these costs. Hypotheses derived from the framework are tested in a sample of 231 contractual alliances between architects and general contractors in the Hong Kong construction industry. We find that both cooperation costs and transaction costs affect the level of time and effort a manager expends on an alliance, supporting our fundamental proposition that the costs of cooperation and control are conceptually and empirically distinct. We argue that cooperation costs should be incorporated into studies that compare the choice of alternative partners and alliance structures, as well as among the broader categories of market, hierarchy, and hybrid governance forms. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Networks, Transactions, and Resources: Hong Kong Trading Companies' Strategic Position in the China Market

The author draws on network perspective, transaction cost perspective and resource-based perspective to analyze Hong Kong trading companies' strategic position in Western manufacturers' exports into China. The study examines the strategic position at different stages of market entry and from the views of both manufacturers and trading companies. The discussion shows that under certain conditions Hong Kong trading companies will enjoy and maintain important position in the market.     

An Analysis of the Deposit-taking Market of Hong Kong

This paper analyzes the deposit-takingmarket in Hong Kong prior to the deregulation ofinterest rates in 1994. We argue that bankingregulations, in the forms of branching restrictionsand interest-rate ceilings, had created amonopsonistic market for short-term bank deposits. Asa result, banks in Hong Kong had earned asubstantially wider interest-rate margin than banks inother Asia-Pacific countries and the United States. We provide procedures to estimate the economicsignificance of the foregone interest and find themonopsonistic rent to be in the order of 1% of theGross Domestic Product of Hong Kong for the period1987 through 1994.     

Going direct to market: The influence of exchange conditions

When faced with the strategic choice of going direct to market versus the option of using intermediaries, a firm is posited to evaluate the benefits to customers from going direct to market, and the transaction costs involved in using intermediaries. In this paper, we discuss how these evaluations might differ depending upon the microcharacteristics of the exchange domain. Based on these theoretical considerations, specific propositions are offered regarding the conditions under which firms might rely more heavily on direct channels. These propositions are tested by conducting a cross'sectional empirical analysis using a large sample of manufacturing firms operating in diverse exchange domains. We also control for the impact of macrolevel environmental characteristics, as well as firm-level characteristics that may influence the direct to market decision. Our empirical results confirm that customer benefits and transaction costs are important considerations in going direct to market.     

Short Sales and Price Discovery in the Hong Kong Real Estate Market

Indirect real estate (IRE) returns are often shown to lead direct real estate (DRE) returns. Apart from differences in liquidity, transaction costs, and management skills, the DRE market is also less complete than the IRE market—when negative shocks arrive, one can only short IRE (e.g., real estate stocks or REITs), but not DRE. This study investigates if short sales in the IRE market convey any information to the DRE market. Based on high‐frequency (weekly) property price data in Hong Kong from 2000 to 2012, we find that short sales in the IRE market led DRE returns, even after controlling for the lagged IRE returns in a VAR model. This supports an information spillover mechanism in which the DRE market learns private information that is not reflected in IRE returns. The spillover effect, however, weakened after the recent global financial crisis because the increased uncertainty over the credibility of individual firms made short sales more reflective of firm‐specific information than real estate market fundamentals.     

Capital flows and stock price volatility: Evidence from Hong Kong

This paper investigates both the short-run dynamics and the long-run co-movement of stock prices, capital flows and the real interest rates in Hong Kong. By using the Johansen multivariate cointegration technique, this paper finds that there are two cointegration vectors among the variables. In other words, the results show that the three variables in Hong Kong are moving together. This long-run relationship implies that even the stock market is efficient in the short-run. Its long-run movement can, however, be predicted by the activities of the capital market.This paper benefited greatly from the comments of anonymous referees. All remaining errors are ours alone.     

Long-term covered interest parity and the international swap market

This paper examines the pricing of long-term forward exchange contracts. It is established empirically that the traditional covered interest arbitrage pricing relationship is often violated, and that the behaviour of long- and short-term forward exchange rates is substantively different. It is argued that activity in the international currency and interest rate swap markets provides a potential explanation for the observed mispricing. In particular, fixed-to-fixed currency swaps provide another form of arbitrage which can affect long-term forward exchange pricing.The author is currently a visiting Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore. The research assistance of Barry Halwas contributed to the paper.     

The governance of external research: empirical test of some transaction-cost related factors

In this article, we analyse the impact of some transaction-cost related factors on the governance of external research. We study how transaction costs vary according to specific attributes of the R&D project, such as the stage in the R&D process, the number of partners implied, the number of technological fields covered, the geographical scope and the duration of the project. According to transaction cost theory, we hypothesize that the higher the transaction costs relative to market governance, the more it is likely that the governance structure will move towards hierarchy.     

The effect of national culture on the choice between licensing and direct foreign investment

This paper argues that national differences in levels of trust impact perceptions of transactions costs and thereby influence the desirability of internalization and the choice of foreign market entry mode. The paper tests this framework on industry level data from the United States Commerce Department's Benchmark Survey of operations of U.S. -based manufacturing multinational corporations in 1977 and 1982, and shows that cultural differences in trust do influence perceptions of transaction costs and the preference for direct foreign investment across countries.     

国外建设工程质量监督管理的特征与启示

通过对美国、英国、德国、法国、日本和新加坡等发达国家建设工程质量监督管理体系的研究,分析总结了国外建设工程质量社会监督和政府监督管理经验及特征,提出了加强和完善我国建设工程质量监督管理的建议,以期有效地促进建设工程质量监督管理水平的提高。     

Motivations for selecting cross-border e-commerce as a foreign market entry mode

This article is an in-depth case study examining a foreign firm deploying Cross-border E-commerce as an entry mode to the Chinese market, integrating services provided by a major technology provider and a leading marketplace platform. Selecting which foreign market entry mode is an important internationalization strategic decision of firms and could have a considerable impact on the firm's performance. The CBEC mode emerges as a plausible choice: e-commerce has grown rapidly in many markets, particularly in China. Additionally, foreign firms face high transaction costs due to unfamiliar consumer behavior and institutional barriers. It is especially difficult for SMEs.This study deploys transaction cost theory as the underpinning framework to explain the motivations for selecting a CBEC entry mode. The findings suggest that CBEC could reduce uncertainties and opportunistic behaviors, while increasing trust. Foreign firms could lower their asset investment in physical shops, staff requirements and training, logistics and warehousing: these supports are provided by marketplace platforms. This new entry mode also takes advantage of the involvement and the dependency of intermediaries. In addition to providing market knowledge, technology providers help to build trust and reduce risks and thereby transaction costs, despite the high transaction frequency of e-commerce.     

The choice of organizational form: Vertical financial ownership versus other methods of vertical integration

Vertical integration is a fundamental corporate strategy of interest to the fields of strategic management and organizational economics. This paper synthesizes theoretical arguments and empirical findings from this literature to identify the underlying advantages and disadvantages of choosing vertical financial ownership relative to vertical contracts. It then suggests that in the absence of agency and transaction costs, vertical financial ownership and vertical contracting are equivalent governance structures for achieving corporate objectives. However, given a world of positive agency and transaction costs, the key theoretic question then becomes predicting when market mechanisms are sufficient, when intermediate forms of vertical contracting become necessary, and when vertical financial ownership becomes the preferred governance structure. The concluding section of the paper provides a framework for making this analysis based on a synthesis of agency and transaction costs perspectives.     

跨国公司在华投资市场导向与绩效关系实证研究

以往文献多是从研发投入、技术转让、知识产权保护导致交易费用不同的角度研究市场导向与外资企业绩效之间的关系,本文则从外资企业功能定位、资源要求、市场机会、风险暴露以及不同动机的成本节约差异入手研究外资的市场导向对绩效的影响。相对出口导向型外资企业而言,市场开拓型外资企业在价值创造中承担了更多的功能、投入更多的资源、面临的市场机会更多、风险更小,并且成本节约更大,这些因素使其绩效好于出口导向型外资企业的绩效。我们通过江苏省苏州地区4026家生产性外资企业2003-2007年数据进行实证研究支持了这一结论。同时,实证研究发现市场导向与绩效之间的关系受到进入方式的调节作用,在合资与独资两种不同进入方式下,市场导向与绩效之间的关系在方向上表现不一致,而且在强度上也存在很大差别,合资的市场开拓型在华子公司的绩效要好于独资的出口导向型在华子公司的绩效。基于该研究结论我们提出相应的管理启示和政策建议。     

Channel coordination and transaction cost: A game-theoretic analysis

Traditional research identified equilibrium marketing channel coordination by using a classical demand function, and classical economic theory often ignored transaction costs. This paper develops a transaction cost linear demand function to investigate channel decision marking when transaction costs exist. Game theory is used to compare a non-cooperative equilibrium of a differential game played under Stackelberg strategies. By focusing on the effect of the distributor's transaction costs with respect to the marketing decision variables, especially the transaction cost and profit distribution, a fuller understanding of the entire decision structure is obtained. Some results are surprising, which set up the benchmark comparisons for future work in this area.     

Portfolio diversification into the Asia-Pacific capital markets: A currency perspective

This paper examines the potential benefits of international investment in the Asia-Pacific capital markets. Using the viewpoints of U.S., Hong Kong and Japanese investors, the study shows that the returns from international investment within the region are more dependent upon the state of exchange rate changes. For the Hong Kong investors, despite the adopted pegged-rate between the Hong Kong dollar and U.S. dollar, the pattern of exchange returns from investing in the region resembles that of Japan rather than that of the U.S.     

香港新一轮经济转型及其对深圳经济的影响

1997年香港回归后，由于亚洲金融风暴的冲击，香港经济面临严峻挑战，开始逐渐加快了经济转型步伐和新一轮的产业结构调整，并在以下方面取得了大的突破：一是以积极发展创新科技产业为经济培育新的增长点，二是一些传统服务业逐步衰退或逐步向外转移，专业服务业，高科技服务业以及社区服务业等迅速发展，由于香港经济的发展及其不断辐射可推动深圳经济持续的发展和壮大，因此香港经济的复苏及转型将为深圳经济带来新的商机。     

Lessons from broadband development in Canada,Japan, Korea and the United States

Broadband network development does not always track closely a nations overall wealth and economic strength. The International Telecommunication Union reported that in 2005 the five top nations for broadband network market penetration were: Korea, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Denmark and Canada. The ITU ranked the United States sixteenth in broadband penetration.Aside from the obvious geographical and demographic advantages accruing to small nations with large urban populations, broadband development thrives when it becomes a national priority. Both developed and developing nations have stimulated capital expenditures for infrastructure in ways United States public and private sector stakeholders have yet to embrace. Such investments have accrued ample dividends including the lowest broadband access costs in the world. For example, the ITU reports that in 2002 Japanese consumers paid $0.09 per 100 kilobits per second of broadband access compared to $3.53 in the United States.Economic policies do not completely explain why some nations offer faster, better cheaper and more convenient broadband services while other nations do not. This paper will examine best practices in broadband network development with an eye toward determining the optimal mix of legislative, regulatory and investment initiatives. The paper will track development in Canada, Japan and Korea as these nations have achieved success despite significantly different geographical, political and marketplace conditions. The paper also notes the institutional and regulatory policies that have hampered broadband development in the United States.The paper also will examine why incumbent local exchange and cable television operators recently have begun aggressively to pursue broadband market opportunities. The paper will analyze incumbents’ rationales for limited capital investment in broadband with an eye toward determining the credibility of excuses based on regulatory risk and uncertainty. The paper concludes with suggestions how national governments might expedite broadband infrastructure development.     

The co‐evolution of capabilities and transaction costs: explaining the institutional structure of production

This paper proposes that transaction costs and capabilities are fundamentally intertwined in the determination of vertical scope, and identifies the key mechanisms of their co‐evolution. Specifically, we argue that capability differences are a necessary condition for vertical specialization; and that transaction cost reductions only lead to specialization when capabilities along the value chain are heterogeneous. Furthermore, we argue that there are four evolutionary mechanisms that shape vertical scope over time. First, the selection process, itself driven by capability differences, dynamically shapes vertical scope; second, transaction costs are endogenously changed by firms that try to reshape the transactional environment to increase their profit and market share; third, changes in vertical scope affect the nature of the capability development process, i.e., the way in which firms improve their operations over time; and finally, the changes in the capability development process reshape the capability pool in the industry, changing the roster of qualified participants. These dynamics of capability and transaction cost co‐evolution are illustrated through two contrasting examples: the mortgage banking industry in the United States, which shows the shift from integrated to disintegrated production; and the Swiss watch‐manufacturing industry, which went from disintegration to integration. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

生产组织形态演变及其对我国建筑业产业升级的启示

以具体产业为研究对象,基于已有研究梳理,建构分析框架梳理建筑业生产组织形态演变的逻辑成因。研究表明,建筑业生产组织形态演变动因包含两个层面:一是以技术进步作为根源驱动,加速建筑业分工水平深化、广化,促进劳动生产率提升;二是发轫于制度变迁,作用在市场交换规模、交易效率的变更,所引致的交易成本降低。