HOME COMPUTER USE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of home computers on child and adolescent outcomes by exploiting a voucher program in Romania. Our main results indicate that home computers have both positive and negative effects on the development of human capital. Children who won a voucher to purchase a computer had significantly lower school grades but show improved computer skills. There is also some evidence that winning a voucher increased cognitive skills, as measured by Raven's Progressive Matrices. We do not find much evidence for an effect on non-cognitive outcomes. Parental rules regarding homework and computer use attenuate the effects of computer ownership, suggesting that parental monitoring and supervision may be important mediating factors.     

Computer adoption and returns in transition

Across nine transition economies, it is the young, educated, English‐speaking workers with the best access to local telecommunications infrastructures who work with computers. These workers earn about 25 percent more than do workers of comparable observable skills who do not use computers. Controlling for likely simultaneity between computer use at work and labour market earnings makes the apparent returns to computer use disappear. These results are corroborated using Russian longitudinal data on earnings and computer use on the job. High costs of computer use in transition economies suppress wages that firms can pay to their workers who use computers.     

Which workers gain upon adopting a computer?

Abstract.  Using the Canadian Workplace and Employee Survey and controlling for individual and establishment fixed-effects, we find that within a year of adopting a computer, the average worker earns a 3.6% higher wage than a worker who did not use a computer. Returns are even larger for managers and professionals, highly educated workers, and those with significant prior computer experience. Employees who adopt computers for use with applications that require high cognitive skills earn the highest returns.     

Employer-provided training,innovation and skills in post-Soviet countries

This paper analyzes the extent of employer-provided training in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine and investigates its relationship with innovation, having international business contacts, use of computers at work, reported skills shortages and other firm characteristics. It contributes to the literature by examining different types of training – initial on-the-job learning, more formal in-house training and external training, which is provided by firms to two categories of workers – white- and blue-collar workers. After controlling for a range of firm characteristics, we find a positive link between technological innovation and intensity of training of all types provided to white-collar workers that points to the technology-skills complementarity. Furthermore, the level of computer use at work is a significant determinant of the incidence and intensity of external training provided to white-collar and blue-collar workers.     

Computers,skills and wages

Computer technology is most prominently used by skilled, high-wage workers. This suggests that computer use requires skills to take full advantage of the possibilities, which are particularly present among relatively skilled workers. This article develops a simple technology adoption model showing that the decision to adopt computer technology depends on (i) the tasks to be performed, (ii) the level of skill or education and (iii) the level of wages. Applying this model to British data, it is shown that the effect of wages and particular tasks on computer adoption is larger than the effect of skills on adoption. The estimates suggest that in Britain computer use is likely to be a matter of cost efficiency and not so much of workers’ skills.     

The Impact of Computer Use On Earnings in the UK

The effect of new technology on relative demands for workers has been the subject of much research in economics. Krueger (1993) and others have studied the impact of computers on earnings in the US and elsewhere. Such studies have been criticised for ignoring the possibility of bias due to unobserved heterogeneity between computer users and non‐users, resulting in computer users not being a random sub‐sample of all workers. As well as looking at the effects of computers on earnings in the UK, this paper extends previous analyses by using a sample selection framework to deal with the bias problem. Results indicate not only that returns to computer use are positive but that it is important to correct for the sample selection bias.     

Does one size fit all? The impact of cognitive skills on economic growth

This paper tests for heterogeneous effects of cognitive skills on economic growth across countries. Using a new extended dataset on cognitive skills and controlling for potential endogeneity, we find that the magnitude of the effect is about 60% higher for low-income countries compared to high-income countries, and it more than doubles when low TFP countries are compared to high TFP countries. There are also marked differences across geographic regions. Using data on the share of the population with advanced and minimum skill levels, our results also indicate that high-income countries should focus on increasing the number of high skilled human capital, while countries from Sub-Saharan Africa would benefit more by investing in the development of basic skills.     

Learning Why More Learning Takes Place in Some Classrooms Than Others

Abstract. The relatively poor average performance of German students on the recent PISA international evaluations of 15- and 16-year-olds' literary skills (2000) and mathematical skills (2003) and the wide variation in performance, with low-income students scoring particularly poorly, have led to calls for reforms of the German educational system. Understanding why students in some classrooms learn more than do those in other classrooms is an important first step in considering alternative reform strategies. Possible explanations include differences in teacher quality, class sizes and peer groups, and also differences among the types of secondary schools that parents select for their children. This paper illustrates a set of techniques that are useful in examining the roles these factors play in predicting why, net of family background and prior achievement, the average achievement of children in some classrooms is much higher than that of children in other classrooms. We illustrate the use of these techniques with a dataset from Bogotá, Colombia, that has two attractive properties. First, some teachers teach multiple classes of students. Second, students are enrolled in schools in two sectors (public and private). Application of the techniques described in this paper could shed light on the reasons why the average academic achievement of German students attending some schools is much higher than that of German students attending other schools.     

International student migration to Germany

The past decades have witnessed an impressive growth of international student mobility. This article presents first empirical evidence on international student migration to Germany, one of the most important destination countries for international students worldwide. While previous research in the field has mainly used data on international trade in educational services, I use a novel approach that analyzes student mobility as a form of migration, using data on international student migrants. An augmented gravity equation is the basis for the theoretical and empirical framework. I also provide extensive sensitivity checks of the empirical results and estimates using both the usual log-linearized and a multiplicative specification of the gravity equation, following recent work by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (Rev Econ Stat 88(4): 641–658, 2006). The results provide evidence for the importance of distance—a familiar result from the empirical migration literature. Unlike for international migration on the whole, the importance of disposable income in the home country does not seem to be too big for students, and student migrant flows from politically unfree countries are significantly lower.     

Africa's education enigma? The Nigerian story

In the last two decades, the social and economic benefits of formal education in Sub-Saharan Africa have been debated. Anecdotal evidence points to low returns to education in Africa. Unfortunately, there is limited econometric evidence to support these claims at the micro level. In this study, I focus on Nigeria, a country that holds 1/5 of Africa's population. I use instruments based on the exogenous timing of the implementation and withdrawal of free primary education across regions in this country to consistently estimate the returns to education in the late 1990s. The results show the average returns to education are particularly low in the 90s, in contrast to conventional wisdom for developing countries (2.8% for every extra year of schooling between 1997 and 1999). Surprisingly, I find no significant differences between OLS and IV estimates of returns to education when necessary controls are included in the wage equation. The low returns to education results shed new light on both the changes in demand for education in Nigeria and the increased emigration rates from African countries that characterized the 90s.     

Inefficient Education Spending in Public School Districts: A Case for Consolidation?

This article estimates scale economies for Arkansas school districts. Large economies of scale exist in teacher salary and supply costs, as well as total costs. The results suggest that districts, especially rural districts, would experience measurable cost savings from consolidation. The authors simulate a hypothetical rural school district consolidation to obtain cost-saving estimates from consolidation. Simulations indicate that districts could save an average of 34% in average variable costs. At the state level, consolidation of rural districts in Arkansas could annually save $40 million. However, consolidation of school districts may increase various implicit costs to students and local communities. (JEL I22 , I28 )     

Logistic model-based forecast of sales and generation of obsolete computers in the U.S.

Our goal is to characterize future trends in the generation of obsolete computers in the U.S. Starting from historical sales data on new computers and assuming a plausible first lifespan distribution, we extrapolate the historical sales trend to the future using a logistic model. The major challenge is that the personal computer is still in an early stage of its technology adoption life cycle and thus early for statistical fits to yield a reasonable estimation of carrying capacity (or saturation adoption level). Our approach is to use a bounding analysis which characterizes a range based on plausible upper and lower bounds on the future carrying capacity (1.3 and 1.0 computers per capita respectively). These lower and upper bounds yield a generation of 92 and 107 million obsolete computers in 2020 respectively. The growth rates of adoption over the next decade are very different for lower versus upper bound, however by 2020 the adoption will be at most 8% away from the long-term carrying capacity in both cases. Assuming computer adoption follows logistic behavior we assert that the saturation level of generation of obsolete computers is not much more than a decade away. The current recycling level of computers is 65 million units, thus if the U.S. expects to recycle computers domestically significant growth of recycling facilities will be required. Note however that this analysis does not address how long obsolete computers are stored nor the distribution of obsolete computers to reuse, recycling, landfill options. This is an important issue to resolve in future work.     

Computers And Growth

The purpose of this paper is to describe the impact of investment in computers on the growth of the U.S. economy. The economic literature on computers is relatively rich in information on the decline in computer prices and the growth of computer investment. Constant quality price indices for computers have been included in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) since 1986. These indices employ state of the art methodology to capture the rapid evolution of computer technology.

While the annual inflation rate for overall investment has been 3.66 percent for the period 1958 to 1992, computer prices have declined by 19.13 percent per year! Similarly, overall investment grew at 3.82 percent, while investment in computers increased at an astounding 44.34 percent! These familiar facts describe growth in the output of computers. The objective of this paper is to complete the picture by analyzing the growth of computer services as inputs.

In a pioneering paper Bresnahan (1986) has focused on pecuniary externalities arising from the rapid decline in computer prices. Griliches (1992, 1994) has emphasized the distinction between pecuniary and nonpecuniary externalities in the impact of computer investment on growth. This paper is limited to pecuniary externalities or the impact of reductions in computer prices on the substitution of computer services for other inputs. As Griliches (1992) points out, this is an essential first step in identifying nonpecuniary externalities or ‘spill-overs’ through the impact of a decline in computer prices on productivity growth. ^{* *}Brynjolfsson (1993) has proveded a detailed survey of studies of nonpecuniary externalities or ‘spill overs’. Recent studies include those of Brynjolfsson and Hitt (1994a, 1994b) and Lichtenberg (1993).

In two important papers Stephen D. Oliner (1993, 1994) has introduced a model of computer technology that greatly facilitates the measurement of computer services as inputs. In this paper we estimate computer stocks and flows of computer services for all forms of computer investment included in NIPA. We construct estimates of computer services parallel to NIPA data on computer investment by combining these data with information on computer inventories. For example, the International Data Corporation (IDC) Census of Computer Processors includes an annual inventory of processors in the U.S.

In Section 1 we present data on investment in computers and constant quality price indices from NIPA. These data incorporate important innovations in modeling computer technology stemming from a joint study by IBM and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) completed in 1985. This study utilized a ‘hedonic’ methodology for constructing an econometric model of computer prices that accurately reflects rapid changes in computer technology. This methodology generates an index of computer prices that holds the quality of computers constant.

In Section 2 we present the model of computer services originated by Oliner (1993,1994). This differs in important respects from the model of capital services used in the previous studies of U.S. economic growth surveyed by Jorgenson (1989,1990). The model employed in previous studies is based on the decline in productive capacity with the chronological age of a capital good. Oliner assumes that computers maintain their productive capacity until they are retired. Decline in productive capacity occurs only through removal of used computers from the inventory through retirement.

In Section 3 we construct estimates of stocks of computers that incorporate IDC data on computer inventories and derive the implied flow of computer services. While output of computer investments has grown very rapidly, the input of computer services has grown even faster. The price of these services has declined at 23.22 percent per year over the period 1958 to 1992, while the input of these services has grown at 52.82 percent! This is prima facie evidence of an important role for computer price declines as a source of pecuniary externalities.

In Section 4 we combine computer services with the services of other types of capital to produce a measure of capital input into the U.S. economy. We link this with labor input to obtain the contributions of both inputs to U.S. economic growth, arriving at the growth of productivity as a residual. We find that the contribution of computer services to input into the U.S. economy is far more important than the contribution of computer investments to output. This is a significant step toward resolution of the Solow paradox: ‘We see computers everywhere except in the productivity statistics. ^{* *}Robert M. Solow, quoted by Brynjolfsson (1993). Declines in computer prices generate very sizable pecuniary externalities through the substitution of computer services for other inputs. By contrast Solow focuses on nonpecuniary externalities that would appear as productivity growth.

In Section 5 we conclude that information on inventories of computers is critical in quantifying the role of computer services as inputs. The constant quality price indices for computers incorporated into NIPA are also essential. A price index for computers that reflects only general trends in inflation would result in a highly distorted perspective on the growth of GDP and capital services, especially during the past decade. To capture the contribution of all forms of investment to U.S. economic growth, similar price indices should be included in NIPA for capital goods with rapidly evolving technologies, as proposed by Gordon (1990).

The long term goal should be a unified system of income. product, and wealth accounts, like that proposed by Laurits Christensen and Jorgenson (1973) and Jorgenson (1980). This incorporates capital stocks, capital services, and their prices. Achieving this goal will necessitate much greater elaboration of the accounting system described in Section 3. These accounts would incorporate data on prices and quantities of investment, stocks of assets, and capital services for all forms of capital employed in the U.S. economy.     

ARE COGNITIVE SKILLS RELEVANT IN GENDER EARNINGS DECOMPOSITIONS?

While cognitive skills are known to play an important role in labour market success, empirical evidence is mainly concentrated in its effect on returns to schooling. Evidence on the role of cognitive skills in gender earnings gap decompositions is virtually absent. I use two approaches to investigate the potential for cognitive skills to affect the size and pattern of the unexplained component of the earnings gap (‘relative discrimination’) across the wage distribution, using data from the International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS). It has been shown that when the raw cognitive score is used to control for cognitive skills, the return to schooling cognitive skills is generally underestimated. Once a distinction is made about the origins of cognitive skills (acquired in school versus outside the school), the returns to cognitive skills can vary depending on their origin. I find that using the raw score to control for cognitive skills does not result in any significantly different estimates of the unexplained component of the gap compared to when cognitive skills are not controlled for. However, once cognitive skills by origin of skill are used in place of total cognitive skills, the results change substantially for three of the five countries examined.     

Do Morning Classes Improve Student Learning of Microeconomics Principles?

This article analyzes the impact of class time on students’ grades by using data from Middle Tennessee State University. The data cover a period of six years and are based on a sample of 5803 individuals who enrolled in 133 sections of principles of microeconomics. To identify the causal impact of class time on students’ grades, I used a bootstrapping method which allowed assigning measures of accuracy to sample estimates. For males, the estimated coefficients were negative and statistically significant at the 10% level, and the coefficients suggested that a male student in an afternoon class could expect to earn a letter grade that is 0.029 points lower than he would have earned by taking the class in the morning. For females, the estimated coefficients were not statistically significant.     

Preschool for all? Enrollment and maternal labour supply implications of a bilingual preschool policy

ABSTRACT

Previous research supports the effectiveness of preschool in various contexts, yet there is limited evidence whether universal-type preschool policies induce changes in enrollment. While certain states have enacted universal preschool policies, some have also considered bilingual preschool mandates, either as a supplementary or stand-alone policy, requiring schools to open up bilingual classrooms for children from non-English speaking families. The question of whether bilingual preschool policies can induce enrollment and close achievement gaps between English learners and English speakers is particularly important today for urban cities and states with large immigrant populations. In this study, I exploit exogenous variation from the first bilingual prekindergarten mandate in Illinois to estimate the causal effects on preschool enrollment and maternal labour supply of recently immigrated and Hispanic families. Utilizing a difference-in-differences strategy, estimates suggest significant effects on preschool enrollment between 18% and 20% and no effects of increasing maternal labour supply in Illinois. Estimates are robust to various specifications, control groups, and timeframes. I use the analysis to further discuss whether universal preschool policies are designed sufficiently for access and inclusion of various student types, and contribute to our understanding on the effectiveness of using childcare subsidies to increase the welfare of low-income families.     

ENROLLMENT AT HIGHLY SELECTIVE PRIVATE COLLEGES: WHO IS LEFT BEHIND?

This study examines the enrollment decisions of freshmen applicants to highly selective private colleges relative to highly selective public colleges. The empirical analysis shows that college enrollment varies by family income—in particular, low-income students with demonstrated financial need are less likely to enroll at private colleges, controlling for other factors including race and financial aid. Grant aid tends to have a moderating effect but the amount of aid under the existing college pricing and financial aid system appears to be inadequate. This finding provides support for recent revamping of financial aid offerings to low-income students by some highly selective private colleges. In addition, the results suggest that while family income appears to be a strong determinant of enrollment at these colleges, race does not seem to play a role . ( JEL I21)     

Are computers driving real wages down?

The annual growth in mean employee compensation plummeted from 2.6% in 1947–73 to 0.4% in 1973–2003. Using both time-series regression and pooled, cross-section, time-series regression analysis for 44 industries over the period 1953–2000, we find that earnings growth is positively related to overall productivity growth, capital investment excluding computers, and the unionization rate. We find also that computerization has a significant negative effect on earnings growth, but no evidence that the growth of skills or educational attainment has any statistically significant effect on earnings growth. The dominant factors explaining the slowdown in wage growth are decline in the unionization rate, slowdown in both TFP growth and overall capital investment, and acceleration in computer investment.     

Estimating Multiple-Discrete Choice Models: An Application to Computerization Returns

Buyers in many markets face multiple-discrete choices: they can purchase multiple-units as well as multiple-brands at the same time. This paper presents a multiple-discrete choice model for the analysis of differentiated products demand. Users maximize profits by choosing the number of units of each brand they purchase. I estimate the model using micro-level data on the demand for personal computers. I use the estimated demand structure to assess the welfare gains from computerization and technological innovation in peripherals. The estimated return on investment in personal computers is 92%. Moreover, a 10% increase in the performance-to-price ratio of microprocessors leads to a 2·2% gain in the estimated user surplus.     

Peer effects in Austrian schools

This study deals with educational production in Austria and is focused on the impact of schoolmates on students’ academic outcomes. We use PISA 2000 and 2003 data to estimate peer effects for 15 and 16 year old students. School fixed effects are employed to address the potential self-selection of students into schools and peer groups. The estimations show significant positive effects of the peer group on students’ reading achievement, and less so for mathematics. The peer effect in reading is larger for students from less favorable social backgrounds. Furthermore, quantile regressions suggest peer effects in reading to be asymmetric in favor of low-ability students, meaning that students with lower skills benefit more from being exposed to clever peers, whereas those with higher skills do not seem to be affected much.