A theory of growth and volatility at the aggregate and firm level

We present an endogenous growth model that explains the evolution of the first and second moments of productivity growth at the aggregate and firm level during the post-war period. Growth is driven by the development of both (i) idiosyncratic R&D innovations and (ii) general innovations that can be freely adopted by many firms. Firm-level volatility is affected primarily by the Schumpeterian dynamics associated with the development of R&D innovations. The variance of aggregate productivity growth is driven by the arrival rate of general innovations. Ceteris paribus, the share of resources spent on development of general innovations increases with the stability of the market share of the industry leader. As market shares become less persistent, the model predicts an endogenous shift in the allocation of resources from the development of general innovations to the development of R&D innovations. This results in an increase in R&D, an increase in firm-level volatility, and a decline in aggregate volatility. The effect on productivity growth is ambiguous.On the empirical side, this paper presents new cross-country evidence that R&D subsidies are not significantly associated with higher growth but are associated with lower aggregate volatility. It also documents an upward trend in the instability of market shares, a positive association between firm volatility and R&D spending, and a negative association across sectors between R&D and how correlated the sector is with the rest of the economy.     

Conservatism, Growth and the Role of Accounting Numbers in the Fundamental Analysis Process

I evaluate the effects of conservative accounting for research and development (R&D) and past growth in R&D on: (1) the relation between aggregate earnings (deflated by price) and contemporaneous stock return, and (2) the association between estimates of value derived from the residual income valuation model (i.e., RIV estimates) and equity market value. I show that the conservative treatment of R&D affects the earnings/return relation only for firms that experience high growth in R&D during the return interval of interest. I also demonstrate that the effect of conservative accounting for R&D on the association between RIV estimates and equity market values is increasing in past growth in R&D.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Structural change and financing constraints

In a multi-industry growth model, firms need external funds for productivity-enhancing R&D, and face financing constraints. The cost of research differs across industries, so financing constraints hinder industry productivity growth unevenly. Equilibrium industry dynamics map into a differences-in-differences regression specification where industry growth depends on the interaction between country financial development and industry R&D intensity. The paper provides a framework for interpreting several empirical results that rely on industry growth data in terms of R&D-induced technology transfer, and identifies a new channel for finance to encourage aggregate growth: the reallocation of resources towards sectors with rapidly expanding technological frontiers.     

Endogenous Growth and Real Effects of Monetary Policy: R&D and Physical Capital Complementarities

We study the real long-run effects of the structural stance of monetary policy and of inflation, in the context of a monetary growth model where R&D is complemented with physical capital accumulation. We look into the effects on a set of real macroeconomic variables that have been of interest to policymakers—the economic growth rate, real interest rate, physical investment rate, capital-to-labor ratio, R&D intensity, and velocity of money. These variables have been previously analyzed from the perspective of different, separated, strands of the theoretical and empirical literature. Additionally, we analyze the long-run relationship between inflation and both the effectiveness of real industrial-policy shocks and the market structure, assessed namely by average firm size. We present novel cross-country evidence on the empirical relationship between the latter and long-run inflation.     

Financing Innovation and Growth: Cash Flow, External Equity, and the 1990s R&D Boom

The financing of R&D provides a potentially important channel to link finance and economic growth, but there is no direct evidence that financial effects are large enough to impact aggregate R&D. U.S. firms finance R&D from volatile sources: cash flow and stock issues. We estimate dynamic R&D models for high-tech firms and find significant effects of cash flow and external equity for young, but not mature, firms. The financial coefficients for young firms are large enough that finance supply shifts can explain most of the dramatic 1990s R&D boom, which implies a significant connection between finance, innovation, and growth.     

The size,concentration and evolution of corporate R&D spending in U.S. firms from 1976 to 2010: Evidence and implications

The use of research and development (R&D) spending as an empirical proxy for managerial discretion, information asymmetry and growth opportunities, is pervasive in empirical corporate finance research. Underlying this is the implicit assumption that firms choose levels of R&D to maximize value, given firm and industry characteristics. An alternative framework views the level of R&D spending as subject to idiosyncratic behavior as managers myopically manipulate R&D expenditures to meet short-term earnings goals. Using aggregate firm and industry level data, we find evidence consistent with the view that R&D is determined by firm and industry characteristics. Time invariant firm and industry fixed effects explain most of the cross-sectional variation in observed R&D spending, while time-varying factors like size, profitability, or market-to-book explain little of the cross-sectional variation. We find that R&D spending continues to grow faster than advertising and capital expenditures. We also find no evidence of managerial myopia as corporate aggregate R&D expenditures are growing faster than aggregate profitability and the number of firms that undertake R&D has increased over the period from 1976 to 2010.     

Do regulatory policies matter to corporate innovation?

This paper examines the relationship between regulation and innovation from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The theoretical model focuses on the role of competition policy (measured by increases in the number of firms) and the strength of intellectual property rights in fostering cost-reducing R&D, under both R&D competition and R&D cooperation. It is shown that, theoretically, competition policy and intellectual property rights are complements under R&D competition, while they are substitutes under R&D cooperation. Moreover, under R&D competition, innovation is maximized through strict competition policy and strong intellectual property rights; whereas under R&D cooperation, innovation is maximized through strict competition policy and weak intellectual property rights. The empirical model tests the effect of several regulatory policies on innovation in several MENA countries. The results of dynamic panel data regressions point that competition policy and intellectual property rights are complements. In addition to competition policy and intellectual property rights protection, the following country/regulation characteristics are considered: human capital, government efficiency, foreign direct investment, natural resources dependence, labor market regulations, and GDP level. The paper finds that the extent of regulations in all categories has statistically significant effects on R&D, except FDI. One explanation is that most FDI to the MENA region flows to natural resources and non-tradable sectors, which are less relevant to R&D than other sectors (e.g., manufacturing and information and communications technology sectors).     

Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle

This paper analyzes the interaction of inflation with the tax code and its contribution to aggregate fluctuations. We find significant effects operating through the tax on realized nominal capital gains. A tax on nominal bond income magnifies these effects. Our innovation is to combine monetary policy shocks with non-indexed taxes in a model where the central bank implements policy using an interest rate rule. Monetary policy had important effects on the behavior of the business cycle before 1980 because policymakers did not exert effective control over inflation. Monetary policy reform around 1980 led to better control, and with more stable inflation, the effect of the interaction between monetary policy and the nominal capital gains tax has become negligible.     

Money and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in an R&D Growth Model

This study analyzes the effects of inflation on R&D and innovation‐driven growth. In the theoretical section, we incorporate money demand into a quality‐ladder model with elastic labor supply and derive the following result. If the elasticity of substitution between consumption and the real money balance is less (greater) than unity, then R&D and the growth rate of output would be decreasing (increasing) in the growth rate of money supply. Quantitatively, decreasing inflation in the U.S. to achieve price stability improves social welfare, and the welfare gain is equivalent to at least 0.5% of annual consumption. In the empirical section, we use cross‐country data to establish a negative and statistically significant relationship between inflation and R&D.     

Financial inclusion and gross capital formation: A sectoral analysis approach for the MENA region and EMs

Most Middle East and North Africa (MENA) governments have firmly committed to financial inclusion as part of a progressive agenda. In this, their objective is to improve the allocation of resources across small and medium firms. Indeed, empirical literature has quantitatively shown that financial inclusion improves nations' aggregate measures of economic success such as growth or inequality. But we know very little of its effects on sectoral variates. This paper contributes to the literature by estimating and comparing the effects of financial inclusion on the relative size of gross capital formation of low-tech sectors in the MENA region. We use a panel of 3-digit level sectoral data on approximately 34 manufacturing industries of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) for eleven MENA countries and twelve emerging markets (EMs) within the period 2005–2016. The paper focuses in four measures of financial inclusion commonly used in the literature of development: size of commercial bank branches, ATMs, borrowers, and depositors. The results suggest that financial inclusion in MENA has a positive, statistically significant effect on the size of gross capital formation in the low R&D-intensity industries. Thus, policy considerations can be directed towards expanding financial services to other low-tech industries including fabricated metal products and to the medium tech division including repair and installation of machinery and equipment industries. This policy will have greater impact on gross capital formation and, thereby, economic growth.     

Inflation,wealth and interest rates in an intertemporal optimizing model

This paper analyzes the relationship between the growth of the money supply and capital accumulation in a monetary optimizing model. Under certain conditions we show that a large intertemporal elasticity of substitution makes the nominal rates of interest undershoot its long-term value, that a low elasticity gives rise to overshooting, while a unitary elasticity is shown to make the nominal rate of interest a constant. These considerations plus explicit attention paid to the income and substitution effects induced by the changes in the nominal rates of interest provide us with an understanding of the correlation between growth of money and capital accumulation.     

Monetary rules and the nominal rate of interest under uncertainty

The expected real rate of return on a nominal bond is shown to be equal to the real rate of interest plus a premium for systematic purchasing power risk. The particular monetary rule employed by the central monetary authority affects the entire joint distribution of inflation and aggregate real wealth. Thus, the monetary authority is able to influence the relationship between the real and nominal interest rate not only by affecting the expected rate of inflation but also by affecting the systematic purchasing power risk of fixed nominal claims.     

Venture capital investment and the performance of entrepreneurial firms: Evidence from China

We examine the contributions of venture capital investment to entrepreneurial firms in China. Based on a panel dataset of Chinese manufacturing firms, we investigate the performance and R&D activities of venture capital-backed (VC-backed) and non-VC-backed firms during the period 1998 to 2007. We explore whether VC-backed firms in China generally outperform their non-VC-backed counterparts, and if so, whether this outperformance is mainly attributed to the ex-ante screening or ex-post monitoring efforts of venture capitalists (VCs). We then determine whether the different types of VCs and investment approaches affect the ex-post monitoring efforts of VCs, and consequently, the performance and R&D activities of the VC-backed firms. Our analysis shows that VC-backed firms outperform non-VC-backed firms in terms of profitability, labor productivity, sales growth, and R&D investment. First, VCs select firms with higher profitability, labor productivity, and sales growth, as well as firms that invest more in R&D activities. Moreover, the differences in profitability and labor productivity are significantly magnified after VC entry. After receiving investment from VCs, firms on average achieve magnified higher ROS, ROE, and labor productivity compared to non-VC-backed firms. However, no evidence demonstrates the magnified improvement in sales growth or R&D investment of the VC-backed firms after the venture investment is made. We distinguish the screening and value added effects by using propensity score matching. We also use instrumental variables to determine whether the post-investment performance improvements of the firms are driven by the venture capital investment. Finally, we find different types of VCs and investment approaches affect the performance of the firms after the investment is made. Foreign VCs add more value to the firms they invest in compared to domestic VCs. Firms backed by syndicated investment perform better and invest more in R&D after the investment is made compared to those backed by non-syndicated investment and non-VC-backed firms.     

Statistical properties of returns: Financial assets versus commercial real estate

This study examines the distribution of commercial real estate returns by region (east, midwest, south, and west), by property type (office, retail, R&D office, and warehouse) and in the aggregate, and compares their distributions to those of financial assets. Nominal and real returns are examined for quarterly, semiannual, and annual periods. The quarterly nominal returns on the financial assets are mostly normal with very little indication of autocorrelation. In contrast, non-normality and autocorrelation are present in most of the nominal quarterly real estate series. The non-normality is greatly reduced when semiannual or annual returns are considered or when the quarterly series are corrected for autocorrelation. The non-normality is also lower for real returns than it is for nominal returns.     

Endogenous productivity of demand‐induced R&D: evidence from pharmaceuticals

We examine trends in the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector over the past three decades. Motivated by Ricardo's insight that productivity and rents are endogenous to demand when inputs are scarce, we examine the industry's aggregate Research and Development (R&D) production function. Using exogenous demand shocks to instrument investments, we find that demand growth can explain a large portion of R&D growth. Returns to scale have been stable, whereas total factor productivity has declined significantly. Predicted rents based on our estimates and Ricardo's theory closely match the trends we observe.     

Aggregate accounting research and development expenditures and the prediction of real gross domestic product

The role of accounting information for public policy making has received increased attention in recent years. Konchitchki and Patatoukas, 2014a, Konchitchki and Patatoukas, 2014b demonstrate that growth in aggregate accounting earnings can predict future growth in nominal and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We extend the micro to macro literature by decomposing earnings into the R&D and pre-R&D components. Using the Almon (1965) finite distributed lag model, we find that both components can predict future real GDP growth with different lead-lag structures. Importantly, this decomposition significantly increases the explanatory power of the predictive model using accounting information. Aggregate accounting R&D can predict real GDP through the personal consumption, business investment, and net export channels of GDP. Our study extends prior research on the forecasting usefulness of accounting information at the aggregate level and has practical implications for macro forecasting and for public policy making regarding innovative activities of publicly listed firms.     

Public entrants,public equity finance and creative destruction

We explore the importance of new public firms and public equity finance for R&D and creative destruction in the US high-tech sector. Over 1900 new public firms enter high-tech manufacturing between 1970 and 2004; they are increasingly R&D intensive and rely extensively on public equity finance in the 1980s and 1990s. We estimate dynamic R&D models and find a strong link between public equity finance and R&D for new entrants, but not established entrants or incumbents. Further, recent cohorts of public entrants have a substantial economic impact: by 2000, recent public entrants account for almost half of high-tech sales and more than half of R&D. Variation in the availability of public equity finance has a marked impact on entrant R&D and the rate at which entrants take market share from incumbents. Our findings identify a key channel through which public equity markets facilitate the process of creative destruction.     

Does the worldwide shift of FDI from manufacturing to services accelerate economic growth? A GMM estimation study

We examine the effect of manufacturing and service FDI (foreign direct investment) on their own sector growth, the spillover to the other sectors and the overall economy in host countries. We identify significant sectoral and inter-industry spillover effects with various data classifications and types of FDI flows. Evidence reveals that growth effect of manufacturing FDI operates by stimulating activity in its own (manufacturing) sector and is prevalent in Latin America-Caribbean, in Europe-Central Asia, middle to low-income countries and economies with large industry share. A surge of service FDI is likely to spur growth in service industries but hurt activity in manufacturing industries. Financial service FDI enhances growth in South-East Asia and the Pacific, high income countries and service-based economies by stimulating activity in both manufacturing and service sectors. However, nonfinancial service FDI drains resources and hurts manufacturing industry in the same group of countries. We conclude that a shift from manufacturing to service FDI is likely to lead to deindustrialization in certain regions and types of economies if this shift is spearheaded by nonfinancial FDI.     

Innovation,Growth, and Asset Prices

We examine the asset pricing implications of a production economy whose long‐term growth prospects are endogenously determined by innovation and R&D. In equilibrium, R&D endogenously drives a small, persistent component in productivity that generates long‐run uncertainty about economic growth. With recursive preferences, households fear that persistent downturns in economic growth are accompanied by low asset valuations and command high‐risk premia in asset markets. Empirically, we find substantial evidence for innovation‐driven low‐frequency movements in aggregate growth rates and asset market valuations. In short, equilibrium growth is risky.     

International Financial Reporting Standards and the value relevance of R&D expenditures: Pre and post IFRS analysis

This study examines the value relevance of research and development (R&D) expenditures in the pre and post International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) periods in the UK. It also examines firm size and sector-based differences in the value relevance of R&D during the sample period between 2001 and 2011. The results indicate that capitalized R&D has value relevance during the 11 years sample period. However, the value relevance of capitalized R&D does not appear to have improved in the post-IFRS period. Large firms present higher value relevance of capitalized R&D than small firms which suggest that firm size has significantly different valuation effects on the value relevance of R&D expenditures. Sectors, however, do not appear to present valuation differences across manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms. The overall findings of this study report no difference in the value relevance of expensed R&D in the pre and post-IFRS periods; however, the value relevance of capitalized R&D appears to decrease from pre to post-IFRS period. We thus argue that these findings have implications for the regulators and accounting professionals.