Irreversible Investment in Stochastically Cyclical Markets

This paper studies entry and exit decisions in markets whose demand alternates between growth and decline phases at uncertain times. We introduce a stochastic process that captures these features of random market evolution, and we provide key mathematical results related to first passage times which make the characterization of entry and exit behavior quite simple and straightforward (even when the process is subject to an endogenously determined upper or lower barrier). We characterize entry and exit patterns in a dynamic competitive equilibrium, and we show why our results differ from those obtained if demand follows a diffusion process (e.g., a Geometric Brownian Motion). Despite the stochastic process of the underlying variable has a continuous sample path in both cases, we demonstrate in our setting that positive rates of entry and exit discontinuously fall to zero owing to informational overshooting. Another advantage of our framework is that it can explain discontinuities in firm values even if sample paths are continuous. Our framework is also amenable to empirical implementations (as we show using Corts’ 2008 offshore oil drilling application), and to an intuitive interpretation of optimal (dis) investment rules based on Bernanke’s (1983) “bad news principle of irreversible investment.”     

Firm turnover and productivity differentials in Ethiopian manufacturing

Are the forces of market selection at work in Africa? How successful are markets in these economies in sorting out firms on an efficiency basis following the sequence of reforms to liberalize and particularly to transform some of the previous command economies to market oriented ones? What is the pattern of entry and exit in the manufacturing sector and how does it affect industry productivity growth? This study examines these issues using firm-level industrial census data from the Ethiopian manufacturing sector. It is the first attempt to analyze firm turnover and productivity differentials using industrial census data in sub-Saharan Africa. The Ethiopian manufacturing sector exhibits a high firm turnover rate that declines with size. Exit is particularly high among new entrants; 60% exit within the first 3 years in business. Our study consistently shows a significant difference in productivity across different groups of firms, which is reflected in a turnover pattern where the less productive exit while firms with better productivity survive. We also found higher aggregate productivity growth over the sample period, mainly driven by firm turnover.     

Agents Monitoring Their Manager: A Hard‐Times Theory of Producer Cooperation

We model the producer cooperative as a firm where a single class of individuals supplies an essential input and monitors managerial behavior. We show how this contractual structure reduces the incidence of equilibrium credit rationing, even assuming a cost disadvantage relative to a firm where these roles are specialized. Our model provides an explanation for producer and worker buyouts in the face of exit by investor owners, and, more generally, for cooperative entry in low‐return economic environments not serviced by investor‐financed firms. Further, our model predicts that a cooperative firm is less prone to monitor‐manager collusion, and that it monitors excessively in high‐return environments.     

Patterns of business creation,survival and growth: Evidence from Africa

We study firm dynamics using a novel database of all formally registered firms in Cote d'Ivoire from 1977 to 1997, which account for about 60% of GDP. First, we examine entry and exit patterns and the role of new and exiting firms versus incumbents in job creation and destruction. We find that while the rate of job creation at new firms is quiet high – at 8% on average – the numbers of jobs added by new firms is small in absolute terms. Next, we examine survival rates and find that the probability of survival increases monotonically with firm size, but that manufacturing and foreign-owned firms face higher likelihoods of exit compared to service oriented and domestically-owned firms. We find that higher GDP growth increases the probability of firm survival, but this is a broad impact with no firm size disproportionately affected. In robustness checks we find that post-1987, size is no longer a significant determinant of firm survival for new entrants, suggesting that the operating environment for firms changed. Finally, we find that trade and fiscal reform episodes raised the probability of firm exit and attenuated the survival disadvantages faced by smaller firms, but exchange rate revaluation and pro-private sector reforms did not significantly lower the likelihood of exit.     

Institutional barriers to firm entry and exit: Case-study evidence from the Brazilian textiles and electronics industries

What are the main barriers to firm entry and exit in developing countries and how do they differ from barriers to firm operation and growth? How important is the institutional and regulatory framework in this respect? This paper examines such questions using case-study evidence from the Brazilian textiles and electronics industries. We find that not only these institutional barriers are high in Brazil but also that they seem to have risen since the early 1990s, and that their effects vary across sectors. We also provide evidence from a survey we carried out in 2005 suggesting that institutions are more important as barriers to entry than as barriers to firm operation and growth.     

Local Agglomeration and Global Networks Of the Semiconductor Industry: a Comparative Study of U.S. and Japanese Firms

The objective of this study is to examine the spatial organization of the U.S. and Japanese firms in the semiconductor industry. Our analyses give special consideration to the nature of the activities undertaken in the semiconductor production processes, the nature of the firm organization, the nature of the firm ownership, and the geographical area of analysis. Our approach is essentially diagrammatic in order to incorporate all the above factors. Therefore, unlike past studies, our study places special emphasis on tracing the connections between the whole spatial chain of production activities. The result is that different stages within the semiconductor production process have different geographical features, and that even the same vertically integrated sectors in the semi-conductor industry that differ by Japanese or U.S. ownership have quite different geo-graphical organizations.     

The entry and exit decisions of foreign banks in Hong Kong

This paper presents a theoretical framework for explaining the entry and exit decisions of a firm, motivated by the differential returns in its home and a host market. Within this framework, the factors underpinning the entry and exit decisions of foreign banks in Hong Kong are examined, using a duration (accelerated failure time) model. It can be seen that a foreign bank, with international experience from having more overseas markets will take a shorter (longer) time to enter (exit) the Hong Kong market. Faster (slower) growth both in home trade with Hong Kong and in the Hong Kong banking sector itself will increase the likelihood of entry (exit). Ceteris paribus, Asian banks enter at a faster rate and survive longer in the Hong Kong market. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Financial crisis and relative productivity dynamics in Korea: evidence from firm-level data (1992–2003)

We have estimated the relative TFP growth at firm level and analyzed the firm dynamics in view of entry and exit of firms in Korea during 1992–2003, which includes the turbulent financial crisis of 1997–1998. Following Pyo and Ha, Hitotsubashi J Econ 48(1): 67–81, (2007), we have adopted a gross output model rather than a value added model of relative TFP analysis. We have found that the cyclical variation of productivity growth plays a dominant role in the decomposition effects before and after the 1997 financial crisis in Korea. Productivity growth is modest before the crisis and strong after the crisis owing to the recovering market efficiency. There is the likelihood that the productivity growth of stayers during the post-crisis period was significantly higher than new entrants. The net entry effect is found to be more sensitive in small business and export-based firms than in large business and domestic market-based firms. Our findings suggest that Korean firms have recovered a modest level of technical change after its severe financial crisis owing to the improvement of management transparency and the build-up of market efficiency during the IMF-mandated restructuring process. But since the entry effect is estimated to be still negative in Manufacturing and the exit effect is negative in Service sector after the crisis, the Korean economy has not fully recovered its metabolism in the post-crisis period and still lacks a creative destructive process to resume another round of sustainable growth path.     

Dynamics in a Mature Industry: Entry,Exit, and Growth of Big‐Box Grocery Retailers

This paper measures market dynamics within the U.S. grocery industry (defined as supermarket, supercenter, and club retailers). We find that despite being a mature industry, the grocery industry is remarkably dynamic. Each year retailers open or close roughly 7% of U.S. stores. We also find significant changes in the size of firms’ operations within markets over time. These changes in relative size are largely the result of expansion or contraction by incumbents rather than the result of firm entry or exit. In fact, entry and exit are quite rare, except by small firms. Moreover, only in small markets do new entrants gain substantial market share.     

Assessment of decision-making regarding market entry/exit for technology innovation

Based on the real options approach, this work intends to assess a firm’s strategy regarding the decision-making of either entering the market which requires technology innovation or leaving the market without technology innovation. Moreover, this work applies the discounted factor to discuss the intervals among different decision values and evaluate the relative timeframe with respect to the project values. Hence, this study intends to provide a mathematical model to assess the entry and exit thresholds in respect of the most optimum technology innovation for maximizing the firm value.     

Fiscal policy,entry and capital accumulation: Hump-shaped responses

In this paper we consider the entry and exit of firms in a Ramsey model with capital and an endogenous labour supply. At the firm level, there is a fixed cost combined with increasing marginal cost, which gives a standard U-shaped cost curve with optimal firm size. The costs of entry (exit) are quadratic in the flow of new firms. The number of firms becomes a second state variable and the entry dynamics gives rise to a richer set of dynamics than in the standard case: in particular, there is likely to be a hump shaped response of output to a fiscal shock with maximum effect after impact and before steady-state is reached. Output and capital per firm are also likely to be hump shaped.     

The choice between greenfield investment and cross-border acquisition: A real option approach

The purpose of this study is to formalize the choice of market entry strategy for an individual multinational enterprise (MNE) from a dynamic perspective. It is argued that incorporating a suitable treatment of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility related to a MNEs investment decision gives further insights to the choice of cross-border acquisitions to greenfield investment as the preferred entry mode. In most cases, the initial entry strategy serves as a platform allowing the firm to make subsequent investments to exploit host-country advantages and capabilities. We allow for this by taking a two-step expansion strategy explicitly into account. The evolutionary process of the value of the foreign direct investment includes two stochastic elements as well as the timing that triggers the transition from export to foreign direct investment. The results suggest that uncertainty and future investment opportunities play an important role when it comes to transit from export to the first phase of the foreign direct investment commitment as well as have an impact on the choice of entry strategy.     

Pair trading based on quantile forecasting of smooth transition GARCH models

Pair trading is a statistical arbitrage strategy used on similar assets with dissimilar valuations. We utilize smooth transition heteroskedastic models with a second-order logistic function to generate trading entry and exit signals and suggest two pair trading strategies: the first uses the upper and lower threshold values in the proposed model as trading entry and exit signals, while the second strategy instead takes one-step-ahead quantile forecasts obtained from the same model. We employ Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods for updating the estimates and quantile forecasts. As an illustration, we conduct a simulation study and empirical analysis of the daily stock returns of 36 stocks from U.S. stock markets. We use the minimum square distance method to select ten stock pairs, choose additional five pairs consisting of two companies in the same industrial sector, and then finally consider pair trading profits for two out-of-sample periods in 2014 within a six-month time frame as well as for the entire year. The proposed strategies yield average annualized returns of at least 35.5% without a transaction cost and at least 18.4% with a transaction cost.     

A survey on institutions and new firm entry: How and why do entry rates differ in emerging markets?

This paper considers the impact of institutions on new firm entry in emerging markets. In particular, it surveys the findings of a 2-year research project on the sources of success in terms of entry rates and conditions (including gross entry rates, exit rates and therefore net entry rates) across the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). These emerging market economies display widely varying entry and exit rates and a framework is developed to capture the interaction between key aspects of formal institutions, how those institutions play out in practice, and their impact on entry and exit rates. The country case studies reveal that, whilst different contingencies affect the relationships between institutions and entry in each country, there are some empirical regularities in the determinants of successful entry and conversely in its constraints. One such regularity is the critical interaction between formal rules and informal mechanisms. There is also variation in whether these works so as to compensate for deficiencies in formal institutions, as in China and India, or whether deficiencies in formal mechanisms are compounded by poor informal mechanisms, as is sometimes true in Brazil. Indeed, relatively good formal rules and structures can be undermined by informal mechanisms deterring or blocking entry, as is largely the case in Russia.     

Customizing competitive strategy to entry timing: Implications for firm performance in the pharmaceutical industry

Our study examines the effect of business-level strategy on performance. Past literature examining the aforementioned effect in the pharmaceutical industry is scarce. Furthermore, there is a lack of studies that analyze how competitive strategy is contingent on firm entry timing. Hence, to explore our understanding in this area, the present study was conducted in the German pharmaceutical industry. Two hundred valid responses were collected from CEOs. The data were analyzed using SPSS and partial least square (PLS) techniques. The findings indicate a surprising result that, while the differentiation strategy is significantly related to pharmaceutical companies' performance, cost leadership strategy is not.     

Long-term finance and entrepreneurship

This paper investigates whether long-term finance affects firm entry worldwide. We construct a new database on short- and long-term credit provided by commercial banks to the private sector in 85 countries over the period 1995–2014. We then analyze whether differences in entrepreneurship are related to the provision of short- and long-term bank credit. Data on entrepreneurship are extracted from two frequently used databases: the Global Entrepreneurship Monitoring dataset and the Entrepreneurship Database, each of which captures different aspects of firm creation. The econometric results indicate that long-term credit does not stimulate firm entry. By contrast, we find that short-term credit is positively related to firm creation, from birth to registration. Controlling for potential endogeneity by implementing an instrumental variables approach does not affect our conclusions. Our findings suggest that better provision of short-term credit allows entrepreneurs to apply for formal loans instead of having to rely exclusively on informal loans or internal funds. The absence of impact of long-term loans can be explained by the difficulty entrepreneurs face in getting access to long-term credit.     

Firm entry and exit in Italian provinces and the relationship with unemployment

This study investigates the influence of the unemployment rate on firm entry, exit and net entry in Italian provinces. We attempt to explain these market dynamics in six different sectors, including manufacturing, construction, commerce, hotels and restaurants, transport and financial services. We control for other regional factors, such as patenting activity, economic growth, economic welfare, tourism, industrial districts and whether being a major city. Findings indicate that the effects of unemployment on entry and exit are dependent upon the sector under study, but are mainly negative. This suggests a lack of dynamics in the Italian regional labor markets.

Beyond portfolio entrepreneurship: multiple income sources in small firms

The economic activities of entrepreneurs are not confined to the ownership of a single firm, but encompass income generation from a variety of sources including wage labour, non-earned income and profit from secondary business ventures. This paper investigates the multiple income sources of a sample of 18 561 business owners in the UK. A latent class analysis revealed seven different groups of entrepreneurs differentiated by their degree of engagement in enterprise ownership and income generation. The results demonstrate the importance of multiple income sources in smaller firms and challenge previous assumptions that portfolio activities are expedited solely as a profit maximization strategy by growth-seeking entrepreneurs. While some use portfolio activities for the purpose of wealth accumulation, others use them as a survival mechanism. The results also highlight time variations in the use of portfolio activities. For some business owners, they are a long-term and relatively stable strategy contributing towards either the economic survival of marginal ventures or the development of high growth enterprises. For others, they are a time-limited strategy facilitating business entry or exit.     

High-involvement information sharing practices: an international perspective

The type of information shared within organizations is a key aspect of strategic human resources management. In this exploratory study, we expand our understanding of high-performance work systems (HPWSs) by examining the information sharing practices of firms operating in different countries to assess the extent that high-involvement-oriented information sharing in organizations is influenced by home-country economic structures and national cultural factors. We assess firm-level data from a 12-country sample to evaluate the use of formal information sharing practices for non-managerial employees. The results of our analysis support the contention that information sharing practices varies by country, and that cultural similarities based on geographical region exist within the three information content areas of business strategy, financial performance, and organization of work. Specifically, we found significant variance in information sharing practices of firms based in different countries but homogeneity of practices among geographical neighbors. There is a modest positive relationship between sharing business strategy information and perceived firm performance that is significantly stronger in North America compared to other regions. These results have important implications for the ongoing theoretical development of mechanisms underlying the use of HPWS practices in an international context.     

Are mobile and fixed broadband substitutes or complements? New empirical evidence from Italy and implications for the digital divide policies

The literature on broadband policies has been focusing on the possible role of mobile broadband as a means for addressing geographical digital divide in areas with no or inadequate fixed broadband infrastructure coverage. Broadband plans designed by most of the industrialized countries take the substitutability between fixed and mobile technologies for granted, with restrictions essentially relating only to bandwidth performance. We explore the determinants of individuals' private access (away from work) to the Internet with the smartphone through a mobile broadband connection, focusing on the role played by Internet uses and taking into account the availability of a fixed broadband connection at home. The results of our econometric exercise, carried out on microdata referred to Italian individuals, provide original and interesting evidence: a complementarity effect between mobile and fixed broadband is found for browsing, video streaming, gaming and cloud services; a substitution effect emerges for social networking and music streaming. Such increasing complexity of individuals’ broadband usage patterns should be acknowledged in the way broadband coverage is mapped and policies designed, adopting a more ecosystem-oriented approach which integrates supply- and demand-side features. A first step in this direction is the inclusion of some, so far neglected, key-attributes of the demand (data traffic allowance, latency, ease of interconnection with Internet capable devices) among the relevant dimensions of policy design.