Realize the Realized Stock Index Volatility

This paper constructs estimates of daily stock index volatilities and correlation using high-frequency (one-minute) intraday stock indices. The key feature of these 'realized' volatilities and correlations is that they are not only model-free but also approximately measurement-error-free. In fact, they can be treated as observed rather than latent, so that direct modeling and forecasting of the realized volatilities can be performed using conventional time series approaches. Some interesting results appear in the analysis. Despite the fact that the unstandardized returns are skewed to the right and have fatter tails than normal, the distributions of the raw returns scaled by the realized standard deviations appear to be approximately Gaussian. The unconditional distributions of the realized variances and covariances are leptokurtic as well as highly right-skewed, but the realized correlation tends to be approximately normally distributed. There is no evidence in support of asymmetric volatility effects commonly found in previous findings. However, we find strong evidence to support the fact that there exists high contemporaneous correlation between realized volatilities and high comovement between realized correlation and volatilities.     

融资融券对沪市波动性和流动性影响实证分析——基于OLS模型和格兰杰因果检验

对上证180指数、沪市融资、融券交易数据样本进行了研究,通过最小二乘回归(OLS)模型建立沪市波动性、流动性与融资融券的关系,通过格兰杰因果检验对回归结果进行验证。实证结果表明:融资融券交易对沪市的波动性和流动性都具有正向影响,结合实证结论给出投资者在股市不同表现下的投资建议。     

权证净需求对隐含波动率的影响

权证市场价格严重偏离理论价值,其隐含波动率远远大于基础股票的历史波动率。文章从供给和需求视角探索隐含波动率偏大的原因。实证结果发现：统计上,净需求对权证隐含波动率有显著的正影响：权证净需求对认股权证隐含波动率变化的影响强于对认沽权证的;认沽权证与基础资产的相关性弱于认股权证。本研究结果有助于市场监管者建立更完善的权证供给制度;有助于投资者根据隐舍波动率与历史波动率偏差建立套利策略。     

The Impact of Political Instability on Inflation Volatility in Africa

This paper investigates whether political instability leads to volatile inflation using a panel of 49 African countries. The study uses novel measures of political instability, particularly the state failure index and state fragility index. In the field of political instability and inflation volatility, this is the first study to measure inflation volatility as the conditional variance of inflation estimated from GARCH (1, 1) model. Adopting the system‐generalized method of moments estimator for linear dynamic panel models for the sample period 1985‐2009, the study documents a positive statistically significant effect of political instability on inflation volatility.     

Tax reforms and stock return volatility: The case of Japan

Although global financial turmoil in recent years has resulted in renewed interest in taxing financial markets, the existing evidence is inconclusive regarding the effect of stock transaction taxes (STT) on stock return volatility. In this respect, Japan provides an excellent opportunity to address the issue, as the country enacted major tax reforms during the long recession beginning in the early 1990s, not only abolishing STT in 1999, but also reducing the capital gains and dividend taxes in 2003. The present paper exploits these tax reform episodes and examines whether and how they affected stock return volatility. In so doing, it employs GARCH-type models using standard daily stock data, as well as HAR models based on realized volatility constructed from high-frequency, intraday data. The estimation results are consistent with the views that, in line with some earlier findings, the STT abolition in 1999 reduced volatility, and that the tax reforms in 2003 also reduced volatility through a cut in the dividend tax, but not in the capital gains tax.     

Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Japan using realized volatility

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the effectiveness of Bank of Japan's foreign exchange interventions on the daily realized volatility of USD/JPY exchange rates using high frequency data. Following Huang and Tauchen (2005) and Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard, 2004, Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard, 2006, we use bi-power variation to decompose daily realized volatility into two components: the smooth persistent and the discontinuous jump components. We model exchange rate returns, the different components of realized volatility and the central bank intervention using a system of simultaneous equations. We find strong support that interventions by Bank of Japan had increased both the continuous and the jump components of daily realized volatility. This suggests that the interventions by Bank of Japan had increased market volatility which not only caused short-lived positive jumps, but were also persistent over time. We did not find any evidence that interventions were effective in influencing the exchange rate returns for the entire sample period.     

我国A股市场中的波动性之谜与市场情绪

本文使用Campbell和Shiller(1988)基于对数线性RVF的VAR非线性Wald检验方法对我国A股1994-2009期间的数据进行实证研究,结果表明样本期间我国A股股价相对其基础价值表现出"过度波动"的迹象,无论是常数超额收益率模型还是V-CAPM模型都无法对此进行解释。通过进一步定义市场情绪指数来分析这种"波动性之谜"现象的原因,结果发现市场情绪和股市"过度波动"之间存在相互作用机制,市场情绪能够对股价波动提供额外的解释。     

Examining Stock Volatility in the Segmented Chinese Stock Markets: A SWARCH Approach

Abstract

This study adopts the SWARCH model to examine the volatile behavior and volatility linkages among the four major segmented Chinese stock indices. We find strong evidence of a regime shift in the volatility of the four markets, and the SWARCH model appears to outperform standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models. The evidence suggests that, compared with the A-share markets, B-share markets stay in a high-volatility state longer and are more volatile and shift more frequently between high- and low-volatility states. In addition, the relative magnitude of the high-volatility compared with that of the low-volatility state in the B-share markets is much greater than the case in the two A-share markets. B-share markets are found to be more sensitive to international shocks, while A-share markets seem immune to international spillovers of volatility. Finally, analyses of the volatility spillover effect among the four stock markets indicate that the A-share markets play a dominant role in volatility in Chinese stock markets.     

投资者结构与股价波动关系——基于理论的思考

长期以来，人们认为机构投资者可以稳定股市。本文从更广的视角研究了投资者结构与股价波动的关系。本文结论如下：（1）在市场产品机构、交易制度和规则体系等要素给定的情况下，股价波动是投资者结构参数的函数。（2）机构投资者与稳定股市没有必然的联系。即使在市场的产品结构和交易制度等要素给定的情况下．不同的投资者结构中机构投资者比例的增加既可以增加股价波动，也可以减少股价波动。（3）在一些投资者结构中，股价波动反而随着理性机构投资者比例的增加而增加。即使在投资者结构中其他参数相同的情况下，理，比机构投资者的比例过多或过少均有可能增加波动。（4）即使在上市公司不分红且没有重大利好消息支持股价的情况下，在一定的投资者结构中，机构投资者仍能通过买入来制造股价波动。并从中获利。但这种策略能够成功依赖于市场中其他类型投资者的结构。（5）适度的羊群行为会使股价波动最小，而过强或者过弱的羊群行为都使股价波动增加。     

Global Risk Factors and South African Equity Indices

South African equity is frequently portrayed as a market requiring a high degree of local expertise – to appropriately understand its many idiosyncratic features – as well as intimate knowledge of its unique drivers – to prudently invest in the same. This claim is evidenced by the amount of research and effort devoted to understanding South African‐specific economics, interest rates and risks. The aim of this research is to debunk this perception with a simple yet robust and highly replicable statistical model (best‐subsets regression) for the majority of the traded South African equity indices. We show how the South African equity market is mostly a one‐way mirror of a confluence of international factors, all arguable largely unrelated to South Africa. We discuss why these models are currently less useful than their longer‐term predictive averages and note the current relevance of including implied volatility and interest rates as predictors.     

Remittance,Institutions and Investment Volatility Interactions: An Intercontinental Analysis

Generating massive investment for growth and development has been one of the main policy goals of most economies around the globe. Countries, most especially developing ones, are highly susceptible to investment volatility owing largely to the fragile nature of their economies as well as weaknesses in terms of dysfunctional institutions. Therefore, sound economic management suggests the need to better understand possible sources for mitigating the adverse effects of investment volatility. Remittances have been identified as important capital flows which do a good job of dousing macroeconomic volatilities. It is on this basis that the study sought to uncover the causal relationship between remittances and investment volatility via the intermediating role of institutions. Using a panel of 70 countries and the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, three insightful outcomes come to the fore. First, remittances played countercyclical roles across the estimated regressions. Second, institutional quality had no significant role in mitigating investment volatility and lastly, the interactive terms of both remittances and institutions significantly mitigated the negative impacts of investment volatility with the exception of the political component of the institutional architecture. Policy suggestions are drawn based on our results.     

Understanding income volatility in urban China

Higher income volatility is associated with a higher risk and a reduction in well-being. Income volatility is widely studied in many advanced economies, yet little is known about income volatility in China. In this paper we document trends in earnings volatility and household income volatility in urban China and examine what are the driving forces. Using the China Urban Household Survey, we find that male earnings volatility increased by 89% between 1992 and 2009. Earnings volatility is higher for older, less educated, and those who work in private service sector and non-SOEs. Decomposition analysis suggests that couple’s earnings shocks are positively correlated, while transfer income and other income help smooth out head earnings shocks. In addition, transfer income and other non-transfer income plays a larger role in smoothing out head earnings shocks for poorer households.     

Transmission of Stock Prices and Volatility from the Influential Major Markets on the Emerging Market: A Case Study of the Korean Stock Market

Abstract

This study investigates how the 1997 crisis has changed the Korean market by focusing on price and volatility spillovers from the US, Chinese, and Japanese markets. Using the exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model, new information on stock prices originating in the US market was transmitted to the Korean market for all periods. The price spillover effect from the Japanese market to the Korean market became stronger from the crisis period. Asymmetry in the spillover effect on market volatility was more pronounced in the Korean market after the financial crisis.     

权证定价分析：极端之间的游移

本文采用Black-Scholes模型分析了中国权证市场存在的定价错误和价格泡沫现象。发现在牛市阶段有近30％的认购权证定价低于其内在价值,同时还发现权证隐含波动率显著超过正股实际波动率。通过对市场因素、正股因素及权证因素的回归分析,本文认为造成两种对立现象并存的原因在于套利机制的缺失造成的正股市场和权证市场脱节,以及权证交易者显著的非理性行为。     

政府支出与经济波动——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

政府支出能否起到稳定经济增长的作用是一个值得研究的重要问题。使用1987-2013年30个省市自治区的面板数据,文章考察了政府支出对我国经济波动的影响。在考虑政府支出规模的内生性后,2SLS估计结果发现政府支出对经济波动的影响具有两面性。一方面政府支出规模主要发挥了财政自动稳定器作用,因而减少了经济波动;另一方面,政府支出变动对总量产出冲击较大,从而增加了经济波动。进一步控制了贸易开放、通货膨胀、货币政策冲击、金融发展和产业结构等因素,估计结果表现出较好的稳健性。研究结论意味着,在保持经济稳定增长方面,需要权衡政府支出规模与政府支出变动对经济波动的影响。     

基于期指随机定价模型的A股市场风险度量研究

本文从期权定价模型的理论基础出发,首先介绍我国股指期货市场的发展情况,并引出股指期货理论研究的进展情况,然后从逆向思维的角度,通过运用期货随机定价模型对我国唯一的沪深300指数期货进行实证分析研究,试图推算出股指期货中的隐含波动率,获得该隐含波动率在反映未来市场波动风险方面的特性,为将来构造VIX指标寻找到适合的因子。     

Dynamics of Idiosyncratic Volatility and Market Volatility: An Emerging Market Perspective

Abstract

Estimating idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) using various model-dependent and model-independent measures, we investigate the characteristics of aggregate IVOL in Malaysia over the period 1990–2008. The IVOL estimated in all models have similar patterns and has no trend over the sample period. There is evidence of episodic phenomenon. During financial crisis periods, market volatility is relatively higher than IVOL – a plausible reason is high correlation between firms' returns. Small firms and low-priced stocks appear to influence IVOL more than large firms and high-priced stocks. In Malaysia, market volatility and IVOL may predict GDP growth.     

International macroeconomic announcements and intraday euro exchange rate volatility

The short-run reaction of Euro returns volatility to a wide range of macroeconomic announcements is investigated using 5-min returns for spot Euro–Dollar, Euro–Sterling and Euro–Yen exchange rates. The marginal impact of each individual macroeconomic announcement on volatility is isolated whilst controlling for the distinct intraday volatility pattern, calendar effects, and a latent, longer run volatility factor simultaneously. Macroeconomic news announcements from the US are found to cause the vast majority of the statistically significant responses in volatility, with US monetary policy and real activity announcements causing the largest reactions of volatility across the three rates. ECB interest rate decisions are also important for all three rates, whilst UK Industrial Production and Japanese GDP cause large responses for the Euro–Sterling and Euro–Yen rates, respectively. Additionally, forward looking indicators and regional economic surveys, the release timing of which is such that they are the first indicators of macroeconomic performance that traders observe for a particular month, are also found to play a significant role.     

Volatility expectations and asymmetric effects of direct interventions in the FX market

In this paper, I investigate the effects of central bank interventions (CBI) on ex-ante exchange rate volatility. I measure volatility expectations by implied volatilities estimated from at-the-money currency options prices. Using a Markov switching model, I estimate the effects of CBI which depend on market conditions. The results suggest that the effects of CBI depend on the prevailing volatility regime. It is found that CBI on the DEM–USD market were not necessarily destabilizing after the Louvre Agreement when expected volatility was relatively high.     

机构交易行为与中国股市波动实证研究

本文采用2004年1月至2008年6月中国股票市场机构投资者的季度交易数据分析了机构交易与股票价格波动的相关关系。研究发现,机构投资者并非总是具有稳定股市的功能。机构交易对股价波动的影响随着投资者类型、股票市值和流动性水平、市场结构和环境的变化而变化。在"后股改"时代,市场将面临非流通股股本减持的巨大压力,政策制定部门应将机构与中小股东利益集合起来,针对不同市场情况机构买卖单产生的不同影响,制定公平有效的政策和监管机制。