The Trade Effects of US Anti‐dumping Actions against China Post‐WTO Entry

Since China's entry into the WTO, US anti‐dumping (AD) actions against China have increased, particularly with respect to multiple petitions. Distinguishing between US single and multiple petitions, we examine the trade effects of US AD actions against China based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly trade data. The results show that a US single petition investigation greatly restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also causes more significant import diversion from non‐named countries. In the short run, a preliminary AD duty imposed on China via a US multiple petition not only restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also prevents trade diversion from non‐named countries. In the long run, a final AD duty on China resulting from a US multiple petition creates a larger destructive effect on China and causes US import diversion from non‐named countries. Thus, a final AD duty imposed on China following a US multiple petition not only harms China's exports but also fails to help the US achieve import substitution. Furthermore, we have been able to reveal the negative trade effect of a preliminary AD duty even in cases where the ultimate decision is not to impose a final duty.     

Trade Diversion as Firm Adjustment to Trade Policy: Evidence from EU Anti‐dumping Duties on Vietnamese Footwear

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2006 European Union anti‐dumping (AD) action on Vietnamese footwear in three markets: imports to the EU, footwear producers in Vietnam, and the trade diversionary adjustment of Vietnamese firms in the US market. We find that the AD action reduced Vietnamese imports to the EU by as much as 65 per cent. Given that the EU makes up almost two‐thirds of Vietnam's footwear exports and footwear is among the top four export industries for Vietnam, this reduction is economically significant. Consistent with predictions of our model, we find evidence of trade diversion by Vietnamese producers from the EU to the US market. Our difference‐in‐difference estimates of the AD actions on the value of Vietnamese footwear imports to the United States ranged from 69 to 71 per cent over the period 2004–07 and 69 to 72 per cent in terms of quantity. These results highlight the spillover effects of trade policy in third markets when firms adjust to trade barriers. Our results are robust to triple‐difference specifications where we adjust for trend differences and a series of placebo specifications.     

The Future of Privacy: A Consumer‐Oriented Approach to Managing Personal Data Online

Beginning with Facebook's recent controversial “tweaks” to its privacy policy and its promise to support users against employers and others who attempt to compel users to divulge passwords, we critically review European Union (EU) and US digital privacy initiatives. Whereas the EU proposal relies on legislative regulation, the United States proposes industry self‐regulation partially enforceable by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). We conclude that not only do the sharply differing EU and US approaches present significant problems of global digital interoperability, but neither proposal promises to result in practical and feasible consumer protection, at least not in the near term. Moreover, the EU proposal poses serious threats to the profitability of digital commerce. As an alternative, we propose a “third approach,” empowering the individual digital consumer/user through a personal online strategy we call “wide‐open privacy,” which provides security without sacrificing the transformative economic, cultural, and personal benefits of the Internet. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Declining Protection in Developing Countries: Fact or Fiction?

This paper explores whether and to what extent evident trade reform, falling average tariffs and rising exports in recent decades overstate the extent to which protectionism has declined in developing countries, especially low‐income developing countries. It identifies remaining significant protection, especially of final manufactured goods; this being associated with the presence of peak tariffs, escalating tariff structures by stage of production and replacement of old forms of non‐tariff protection with new instruments of non‐tariff protection. It also identifies significant protection arising from high international trade costs induced by inefficiencies in transportation, ports and customs, and from the growth of exports to preference‐receiving, export markets.     

An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighbouring high‐income and middle‐income countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway, are expected to benefit from EU disintegration under some scenarios because trade would be diverted from EU countries.     

WTO框架下欧盟知识产权边境措施适用于过境货物之合法性分析

当今,不少国家或地区的知识产权执法权限日益扩张,并与贸易自由、尤其是过境自由的法律制度相冲突。这一冲突近年来在针对过境货物的知识产权边境措施中凸显,包括荷兰在内的欧盟国家频繁扣押过境货物,其中不少涉及我国出口的货物。2010年5月,印度就仿制药扣押案正式通过WTO向欧盟提起磋商。2011年7月印度和欧盟已达成了一项临时性谅解协议,①但这只是暂时解决了欧盟与印度之间针对通用名药的纷争,远未解决欧盟边境措施本身的合法性问题。本文旨在研究欧盟的立法和司法实践,分析其在GATT和TRIPS协定项下的合法性,并简述我国的应对措施。     

East Asia's Anti‐dumping Problem

East Asia accounts for a large and growing share of worldwide anti‐dumping (AD) activity. East Asian countries have long been the main targets of AD actions, accounting for about one‐third of all AD actions during the 1980s, more than 40 per cent of all AD actions during the 1990s, and almost 50 per cent of all AD actions in recent years. After controlling for factors that might influence filings such as the exchange rate and trade volume, it is found that East Asian countries are subject to about twice as many cases as either North American or Western European countries. Moreover, the trend in filings against East Asian countries is increasing, meaning that in recent years the propensity for countries to direct their AD filings against East Asian countries is growing. One concern is that the growing intensity of AD use against East Asia is driven by China‐PRC. Importantly, but a rising propensity is found even excluding China‐PRC.     

Enlargement and the Textiles,Clothing and Footwear Industry

The textiles, clothing and footwear (TCF) industry is a labour intensive industry, strongly determined by globalization and easy relocation to low‐cost countries. Hence also in the European Union this industry is relatively more important in the low‐wage regions of the EU‐Southern periphery. With the envisaged enlargement, however, these countries fear a further shift of the sector to Central and Eastern Europe as these countries still have a comparative advantage in terms of low labour costs. The present article investigates whether this fear is justified, looking at three main aspects: first at the position and history of the TCF sector in the European Union and its role in the EU periphery, second at the sector in the Central and Eastern accession countries, and third at gobalization issues. The second aspect is dealt with in great detail, as development trends in the Central and East European countries are important and telling. Much has happened during the 15‐year (and more) period between the collapse of communism and the EU membership in this region, most important the integration to the EU by the means of trade, in particular outward processing trade. These developments mainly seem to determine future trends in an enlarged Europe. Overall however, future prospects have to be seen in a global context, strongly influencing the sector via changes in global trade policies.     

Biotechnology in the agricultural sector: a challenge to consumer welfare

The promises and pitfalls of agricultural biotechnology have long been debated. The public is often thwarted because consumers frequently perceive as risky, and therefore undesirable, those advances that they do not understand or of which they are unaware. A comparative study of the introduction of a biotechnology innovation in the United States (US) and in the European Union (EU) is a case in point. In the US, despite concerns of consumer protection and environmental groups that the use of genetically produced growth hormone in milk‐producing cows will adversely impact the safety of the milk supply, scientific evidence and governmental findings appear to indicate that milk from treated cows is identical in quality, taste and nutritional value to milk from untreated cows. Experience to date in the US demonstrates some consumer resistance to milk from those cows that have received the growth hormone, which typically leads to a 10% increase in milk production. In fact, if there is no perceived differentiation between the two forms of milk, the issue offers little choice to consumers at large, and may result in economic benefit only to selected dairy farmers, as well as the producers of the genetically produced growth hormone. This situation in the US is an example of dysfunctional technology transfer, with perceived desirable benefits to a few, and perceived undesirable benefits to society‐at‐large. The information suggests that the US may have reacted hastily in approving the use of bovine growth hormone in milk‐producing cows. The EU has taken a divergent approach by enacting moratoriums against its use. The differences identified in this study, contrasting responses to the bovine somatotrophin issue in the US and EU – driven in part by general consumer attitudes towards biotechnology – may provide insights into the issues and challenges that will be faced by both advocates and opponents of global proliferation of certain advances in biotechnology.     

EU-Regulierung von Bitcoin und anderen virtuellen Währungen: erste Schritte

Bitcoin and other virtual currencies are becoming increasingly important. They are not money but are being used by a growing group of people as a means of payment and investment. Central banks and regulatory authorities have identified risks and see a need for regulation. Regulation areas with a high priority in the EU concern consumer protection, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT). The EU institutions are currently revamping the AML Directive in order to include virtual currencies for the first time. An international coordination on the regulation of virtual currencies is on the agenda of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of G20 countries.     

The economic consequences of corporate tax rates reductions in the EU: Evidence using a computable general equilibrium model

In a globalised world, governments are eager to attract foreign investors by lowering corporate tax rates. Recent trends point towards a revival of a race to the bottom in corporate income tax (CIT) rates in developed economies. EU countries have been active in this respect. A generalised fall in CIT rate could prove detrimental to tax revenues and trigger increase in other taxes to meet fiscal policy objectives. However, it could also spur investment and growth and prove to be a good fiscal policy strategy if, as a result, the corporate tax base increases. The final economic and fiscal impact of a reduction in CIT rates is therefore unclear. Using a CGE model, we find that uncoordinated tax reforms significantly impact national economies and third‐country effects can be significant when large countries implement CIT rate cuts. Small countries are better off unilaterally reducing their CIT rate at the expense of other EU countries. We find that negative spillovers are mitigated when the country reducing its CIT rate restores its budget balance by cutting either public expenditures or social transfers. A larger degree of non‐EU capital mobility also tends to reduce the negative spillover effects of unilateral CIT rate reductions.     

More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective

What is at stake in the standoff and suspension of the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies are relatively dependent on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this article we compare different scenarios for the Doha agricultural and NAMA negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals on the table from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) in December 2005. The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes for successful completion of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the US and the EU – based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals – delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and focus the analysis on the impacts on developing countries.     

Export Survival in Global Production Chains

In this paper, we examine the survival capacity of trade relationships in cross‐border production chains. Our main contribution is to show that there are differences in the probability of export interruption between intermediate and final stages along the global value chain, finding a lower sensitivity of intermediate goods to the increasing competition from lower‐income countries. In addition, the paper also makes a methodological contribution by using time‐discrete duration models with product‐country random effects to control for unobservable heterogeneity and by including interactions in the model, in order to identify the sources of these differences. Our estimates show that variables such as EU membership, export experience, product and market diversification, initial trade value, destination market size, geographical proximity and economic proximity reduce the likelihood of export failure more for intermediate than for final goods, being the differential impact particularly higher for the two first variables. These results would suggest that factors that reduce uncertainty and search costs and increase trust and reliability among production partners are particularly relevant for intermediate stages, fostering the probability of remaining an active member of global production chains.     

A Centennial of Anti‐dumping Legislation and Implementation: Introduction and Overview

A century has passed since the Government of Canada adopted the first recorded anti‐dumping law in 1904. The Canadian legislation was soon followed by similar legislation in most of the major trading nations in the industrialised world prior to and after World War I. Anti‐dumping provisions were later incorporated into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) following World War II. Nowadays, virtually all of the industrialised and developing countries in the world economy have adopted anti‐dumping legislation. In view of the long and increasingly widespread use of anti‐dumping measures, we marked the centennial of Canada's 1904 legislation with a symposium at the University of Michigan on 12 March, 2004. The symposium papers document the experiences with anti‐dumping and then ask whether and how anti‐dumping can be reformed. Although we all would probably agree that the best solution would be to retract all anti‐dumping legislation, this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. Anti‐dumping laws serve a variety of purposes, and powerful political forces stand in the way of eliminating these laws. Anti‐dumping provides a stronger and more focused means of safeguards protection against surges of imports than GATT‐legal safeguards laws permit. Anti‐dumping also formalises a meaning for ‘unfair trade’ that, though essentially meaningless from an economic standpoint, strikes a chord in public perception. And finally, in spite of its appearance of being constrained by objective administrative rules, anti‐dumping in practice is a potent political tool that governments are able to manipulate in order to satisfy powerful constituents. With all this going for it, anti‐dumping is unlikely ever to be relinquished as an economic policy tool by governments.     

An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Anti‐dumping Behaviour in India

The use of anti‐dumping measures as a trade protection tool, has increased phenomenally during the last decade. One significant aspect of this new trend is the increasing involvement of developing countries. India is one such country which has emerged as a very frequent user of anti‐dumping measures, surpassing even the traditional users. It had initiated more than 300 anti‐dumping cases by the end of 2002–03. Many of these cases are against developing countries. Most of the cases are concentrated in narrow range product groups, like chemicals and petrochemicals, iron and steel, pharmaceuticals and textiles. This study examines India's experience with anti‐dumping measures. The main objective of the study is to identify the factors which might have influenced the anti‐dumping behaviour in India. Discussion of these factors shows that imports have increased considerably. This is particularly true for a number of developing countries facing dumping charges in India. At the same time, many of the domestic producers of the like products have performed poorly during the last decade. Such trends may instigate the import‐competing industries to seek anti‐dumping protection and may also influence the authority to provide that. However, the results of our statistical exercise show that, although imports and performance of the domestic industry might have influenced the initiation of anti‐dumping cases, these factors did not seem to significantly influence the final decision of the authority. The results rather indicated a tendency on the part of the authority to provide anti‐dumping protection to industries, which are characterised by a large number of firms.     

The impact of EU common agricultural policy decoupling on farm households: Income vs. investment effects

This paper analyses the effects of decoupling (as introduced in the 2003 reform of the EU Common Agricultural Policy) on farm income and investment behaviour. The results of a dynamic multi-objective household model for 80 farm households in 8 EU countries are analysed and presented through a measure of investment-income elasticity as a reaction to decoupling. The results highlight the differing and contrasting reactions of farm households to policy changes. The main conclusion is that the diversity of farm specialisations and the dynamics of long-term adaptation should be taken into account more explicitly in the evaluation of policy impacts on EU farming systems.     

Is India Specialising in Polluting Industries? Evidence from US‐India Bilateral Trade

Recently, the apex environmental agency of India observed that domestic industrial pollution has been increasing at an alarming rate over the last two decades, and the need to rein in traditional polluting industries. This raises the pertinent question of whether the poor domestic pollution regime has affected the pattern of India's trade in dirty manufactured products in the post‐liberalisation era since 1991. We find that on the whole, India has remained a net importer of pollution‐intensive manufactured goods; however, there is a distinct trend of increasing specialisation in specific dirty industries especially in the bilateral trade with high‐income countries, and to a lesser degree with low‐income countries. The USA being India's single largest country trading partner in the post‐liberalisation era, we test for pollution offshoring at the finer industry level in US‐India bilateral trade. While we find that the pollution haven effect is not significant, India's specialisation in certain dirty manufacturing industries through the last decade remains a disturbing trend. India needs to integrate environmental sustainability within industrial growth urgently, and it is pertinent to implement policies which would reflect the true pollution costs in an industry that is increasingly competing in the international market.     

反倾销保护引致的市场转移效应分析——基于中国彩电出口的实证分析

针对特定出口国的反倾销保护会带来两种贸易转移效应:进口国的进口转移效应和出口国的市场转移效应。本文通过简单竞争模型以及统计分析和描绘性分析着重考察了反倾销保护对出口国的市场转移的影响,分析结果表明,欧盟对中国彩电的反倾销保护导致了中国对其彩电出口量的大幅度下降,并进而引起了中国的彩电出口向未提起反倾销诉讼的其他国家(地区)转移,即反倾销保护导致了出口国的市场转移效应。     

Global agricultural trade liberalization: Is Sub-Saharan Africa a gainer or loser?

This paper analyzes the potential impact of agricultural trade liberalization on Sub-Saharan Africa. We used the Agricultural Trade and Policy Simulation Model to estimate the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization, mainly in the US and EU, on the world-market prices of agricultural commodities. We then used the estimated price changes to assess the impact of these reforms on net-food importers as well as other Sub-Saharan African countries that enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU and US. The results indicate that the world market prices of all commodities imported by Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise while the prices of the key export commodities of the region would either decline or remain unchanged. Given that the prices of major food commodities are expected to rise, net-food-importing countries will experience increasing import bill, thus leading to welfare loss. Major Sub-Saharan Africa sugar exporters who are beneficiaries of preferential agreements such as the EU sugar protocol and US AGOA initiative will become losers as preferences erode due to global liberalization. Thus, the region is expected to generally become a net loser from the current WTO reform modalities.     

CAP reform, the Berlin summit, and EU enlargement

The planned enlargement of the EU necesitates major changes in the EU's agricultural policy. The decisions of the Berlin summit in 1999 have been rated as a major breakthrough towards a liberalization of the CAP by the EU Commission and the ministers of agriculture, but are seen considerably more critically by others. The consequences of the compromises reached in Berlin will be distortions both in the allocation of land to agriculture, forestry and environmental purposes, and in the distribution of sectoral income, leading to excessive budget outlays and high economic rents for landowners who are increasingly themselves not active farmers. A fundamental reform of the CAP is still required. What elements should it contain? How could its chances of implementation be increased?