异质机构持股、政府补贴与企业技术创新

机构投资者与政府补贴等优惠政策作为企业经营的重要资本来源和制度保障，势必对企业技术创新产生重要影响。以我国沪深两市战略性新兴上市企业2010-2015年面板数据为研究样本，对异质机构持股、政府补贴与企业技术创新的关系进行实证分析。结果发现：机构持股对企业技术创新没有显著影响，政府补贴可以促进机构持股对企业技术创新尤其是实质性技术创新产生显著正向影响；基金持股对企业技术创新存在显著负向影响，券商持股与QFII持股对企业技术创新分别存在不显著和显著正向影响；政府补贴能够降低基金持股对企业技术创新的负向影响，有效促进基金持股对企业技术创新的正向影响，并通过调节作用促进券商持股和QFII持股对企业技术创新产生更加显著的正向效应；政府补贴对基金持股与企业非实质性技术创新关系的正向调节作用更加显著，对券商持股和QFII持股与企业实质性技术创新关系的正向调节作用更加显著。     

THE SYSTEMATIC RISK OF DEBT: AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE*

This paper examines systematic risk (betas) of Australian government debt securities for the period 1979–2004 and makes three contributions to academic research and practical debate. First, the empirical work provides direct evidence on the systematic risk of government debt, and provides a benchmark for estimating the systematic risk of corporate debt which is relevant for cost of capital estimation and for optimal portfolio selection by asset managers such as superannuation funds. Second, analysis of reasons for non‐zero (and time varying) betas for fixed income securities aids understanding of the primary sources of systematic risk. Third, the results cast light on the appropriate choice of maturity of risk free interest rate for use in the Capital Asset Pricing Model and have implications for the current applicability of historical estimates of the market risk premium. Debt betas are found to be, on average, significantly positive and (as expected) closely related, cross sectionally, to duration. They are, however, subject to significant time series variation, and over the past few years the pre‐existing positive correlation between bond and stock returns appears to have vanished.     

Private investment with social benefits under uncertainty: The dark side of public financing

We develop a game‐theoretic model of private–public contribution to a long‐term project with sequential actions and moral hazard. A private agent is one who is in charge of both the financial contribution and the management effort, these two actions entailing private costs and uncertain ex‐post private and social benefits. A public agent is one who decides the amount of public funding to this quasi‐public good, knowing that the size and the probability of attaining a surplus ex post depend on the private agent's effort. We consider four public‐funding scenarios: benefit‐sharing versus cost‐sharing crossed with ex‐ante versus ex‐interim government intervention. We test our theoretical predictions by means of an experiment that confirms the main result of the model: Cost‐sharing public intervention is more effective than benefit‐sharing in boosting private financial contribution to the project. Furthermore, when public intervention comes after private contribution ( ex‐interim government intervention), both public‐funding scenarios have a negative impact on the private management effort. In our model, the latter result is explained by the private agent's high degree of risk aversion. These results have policy implications for strategic investments with long‐term social consequences. In deciding the optimal timing and method of the contribution, governments should also consider the indirect effects on agents’ long‐term management efforts.     

政府信任、企业信用结构及其相关性的经验研究

本文提出"流动性"和"履约评价"相互转换的企业信用结构的转换规律,并研究"政府信任"的隐性担保功能对上市公司的"履约评价",以及对商业信用、银行信用和证券信用的影响.经验研究的结果说明,在上市公司信用结构中,商业信用主要受长期商业关系而不受政府信用的影响;政府信用增强了企业的长期银行借款能力,但短期银行借款更依赖于经营性因素;政府信用对增强企业的证券融资能力具有显著作用.     

Rebranding ex‐convicts

We develop a theoretical model explaining how the problem of poor labor market outcomes for ex‐convicts might be alleviated by an external intervention. While employers wish to avoid associating with those who will end up returning to crime, they cannot be certain from the available information which convicts will reoffend and which will not. We illustrate that, notwithstanding this informational asymmetry, a government (or a civic society) can nevertheless design a costly, yet net socially beneficial program through which some ex‐convicts can credibly convey their good intentions to employers. Such a “rebranding” program can help more ex‐convicts find legitimate work, with fewer electing to return to crime than would otherwise have been the case.     

The effect of inflation uncertainty on ‘crowding out’

It is widely recognized that expansionary fiscal policy can crowd out private investment. The degree of crowding out depends in part on the degree of substitutability between public and private securities. In this paper, we look at how inflation uncertainty affects this substitutability and the degree of crowding out. Depending on the covariance of the return of private securities with the rate of inflation, the degree of substitutability, and thus the level of crowding out, will diminish as inflation uncertainty increases. Indeed, an increase in government debt may actually decrease the real return required on private securities, leading to “negative” crowding out.     

Fiscal Policy in Real Time*

In this paper, I estimate the ex ante or intentional cyclical stance of fiscal policy in OECD countries. I use the fiscal plans reported at the time of budgeting, together with other information available to fiscal policy‐makers in real time. Indeed, fiscal plans might be significantly different from ex post outcomes because governments do not have complete control over their implementation, which is influenced by several exogenous factors. When fiscal‐policy rules are estimated using real‐time data, I show in this paper that OECD countries have often planned a counter‐cyclical fiscal stance, especially during economic expansions. This contrasts with conventional findings based on actual data, which tend to point towards a‐cyclicality or pro‐cyclicality. Forecast errors for the government structural balance and the output gap play a central role in explaining the differences between estimates based on ex ante and ex post data.     

Securities fraud

Recent frauds in investment banks and securities houses have revealed how vulnerable modern financial institutions are to criminal activity by their employees. In this paper, we examine how regulators may limit the incidence of securities fraud by encouraging firms to provide managers and dealers with appropriate incentives and by imposing ex post penalties once a fraud has been discovered     

Mortgage‐Backed Securities (MBS): Is It a Curse or a Blessing for the Australian Home Loan Market? A Natural Experiment

The Australian home loan market has seen a significant and persistent boom over more than two decades. The extant literature exploring the underlying factors explaining this boom has predominantly looked at the demand side rather than the supply side. In this paper, we look at a major supply‐side issue, the introduction of mortgage‐backed securities and its likely impact on the home loan market. In doing so, we have developed a mathematical model that theorises this likely relationship. Our mathematical model predicts possible existence of an unstable equilibrium in the home loan market in the presence of mortgage‐backed securities. We have subsequently backed up our theoretical exercise with sound empirical evidence acquired and analysed as a natural experiment in the Australian scenario using quarterly market data on home loans and mortgage‐backed securities data for a 36‐year period from 1976 to 2012. Using unknown structural break tests, we have identified significant breaks around late 1992 to mid‐1995, clearly indicating that there were significant changes in the housing market due to the introduction of mortgage‐backed securities in early 1993. We have also performed a stability test confirming that under certain conditions this market can become unstable.     

合肥市、芜湖市农民工社会保障调查及其解决思路分析

在调查的基础上阐述了安徽省合肥市与芜湖市的农民工社会保障现状,指出农民工内部差异较大,对社会保障需求客观上存在较大差异。在分析两城市农民工社会保障问题的基础上,本文提出分步实施、分类保障,逐步将农民工与城镇居民纳入同一社会保障体系的思路。"分类保障"指出部分农民工现在可以纳入到现有的城镇社会保障体系当中;另部分农民工不应该办理养老保险但应有大病与工伤保险,部分农民工暂时可以不要任何保障。"分步实施"指出中央政府首先实施分类保障,在此基础上建立全国统一的、低缴费率的社会统筹,并最终将全部农民工纳入到现有的社会保障体系当中。     

证券交易税的经济效应分析

正确分析证券交易税的经济效应是制定合理的证券交易税税收政策的前提，本分析了证券交易税对证券市场运行、社会资本的配置以及政府财政收入等方面的经济影响，比较了不同观点的分歧所在。本认为，无论如何评价证券交易税的经济效应，都不能脱离具体的证券市场环境，在特定的国家、特定的时期、特定的经济背景下，要综合进行权衡。     

Cyclical Multiplier and Zero Low Bound Effects of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: Evidence for Greece

This study explores the impact of government expenditure multipliers on economic growth utilising an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. We provide evidence on the short‐term dynamics as well as the long‐run expenditure multiplier effects on economic growth for the Greek economy over the period 1960–2014. We find that the size of the multiplier does not differ substantially over the phases of the business cycle. Our results also indicate that irrespective of the scale of inflation, government expenditure positively affects economic growth, whilst inconclusive evidence is obtained in the case of exceptionally low interest rates.     

Location decisions of a polluting firm and the time consistency of environmental policy

This paper considers location decisions of a monopolist, who faces a tax on its emissions in the home country, under ex post that is, time consistent, and ex ante, that is precommitment, environmental policies. We show that the monopolist will relocate more often under ex post optimal emission taxes. A government which cannot commit to an ex ante emission tax and sets its tax ex post after abatement effort has been chosen, is unable to affect the monopolist’s location decision, because it cannot commit to strategically reduce its tax level in the first stage. Domestic welfare is often higher under ex post emission taxes whenever the monopolist relocates under both policy regimes. Otherwise, welfare is higher under government commitment to an ex ante emission tax level. Thus, government commitment to a policy is not always welfare improving.     

在国有股减持过程中创造双赢局面

国有股减持主要目的是为了增加国家财政收入，若充分考虑全体股东的利益、股票市场发展、公司治理水平的提升和建立守法运营文化的原则，还可实现更多的目标。文章提出了国有股减持的四种基本方式。     

Competition for natural resources and the hold‐up problem

We study the role of competition for the hold‐up problem in foreign direct investment in resource‐based industries. The host country government is not only unable to commit not to expropriate investment ex post but also unable to commit to the provision of local resources. In the case of competition for local resources, this dual commitment problem triggers higher investment levels and increases host country revenues, but hurts profits of international investors.     

Bond market seasonality and business cycles

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of business cycles on the monthly seasonality of fixed income securities. In general, the results suggest that the average monthly returns of fixed income securities during economic contractions are higher than during economic expansions. For the government and high-grade corporate bonds, average returns in November are significantly higher in the periods of economic contractions. In addition, no monthly seasonality is found during economic expansions. For the low-grade corporate bond returns, January effect is found in both economic expansions and contractions periods.     

Product diversification and bank risk: evidence from South Asian banking institutions

ABSTRACT

We investigate whether the product diversification activities of South Asian banking institutions have led to an increase or decrease in their solvency and profit risks. Using the data of five countries – India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – for the period 2000–2016, we analyse the effect of both income and assets diversification activities on the Z-score and SDs of ROA (Return on Assets) and ROE Return on Equity). Among income diversification activities, securities trading income has a significant positive influence on bank risk while other categories have no influence. With respect to assets diversification, non-interest-bearing assets and loans given to government were found to have a significant positive influence on bank risk, while mortgage loans and non-classified loans have opposite influences. However, the impacts of securities trading income and loans given to the government are mainly confined to private sector banks and state-owned banks, respectively. We also uncover some country-specific diversification influences on the above relationships.     

对我国会计电算化发展的理性思考

由于国际互联网和电子商务的出现,从而对会计电算化提出了更高的要求。我国政府应该从宣传及法帛上扩大电算化的范围和影响,应该建立 通用的财务会计软协议,应该向管理软件过渡,应该加强安全性、开放性和信息资源的共享性。     

转型期政府在农村社会保障制度建设中的作用探讨

在社会主义本质这个层次，政府应坚持社会主义方向，实施有利于扩大就业的发展战略，积极为农民创造就业机会；调整财政支出结构，加大对农村和农业的支持；采取积极措施，缩小两极分化。以最终实现共同富裕；政府的经济职能、具体操作以及政府的局限性四方面分析了转型期政府在农村社会保障制度建设中：政府应该坚持社会主义方向；在政府的经济职能这个层次，政府应不同程度地介入不同的社会保障项目，以弥补市场失灵；从具体操作层次上，政府应承担起农村社会保障制度建设的主体作用；同时尽量避免政府失灵。     

科技创新创业金融政策满意度研究

首先分析了陕西省科技创新创业的金融环境,然后评价创业者对金融政策各指标的关注度和满意度,并运用四分象限图法寻找关键影响因素,最后从创业者视角研究了创业者对陕西省金融政策的直接诉求。结果发现,政府需加强金融理念创新、体制创新、商业模式创新、产品与服务创新、管理创新以及风险防范创新,为创业者营造完善的金融运行机制,而非直接资助或对企业进行补贴。