Institutional Root Cause of the Irregularity of Social Security Funds in China

This paper analyzes institutional defects in the Chinese social security system, based on irregularities in social security funds revealed in the Audit Report by the China National Audit Office. The author divides the irregularities into five categories according to the nature of fund use. The results show that the institutional root cause of the irregularities lies in the unreasonable design and operation of the social security system, which currently faces management and institutional risks. This paper argues that simple rhetoric about strengthening regulation and supervision cannot help to reduce illegal practices, or to realize risk control. The only solution is to reform the social security system. Specifically, the Chinese Government should regulate the administrative cost of the social security system, and the behavior of its agencies, through legislation, reform the investment regime to increase rate of return of pension assets, and adjust and reshape the existing social security system, so as to elevate its pooling level.     

社会养老保险基金投资监管模式的国际比较及启示

本文在对国际上两种养老基金投资监管模式进行分析比较的基础上,结合我国具体实际,对关于如何选择合理的监管模式,以保证社会养老保险基金的健康投资运营进行了分析和探讨。     

Firm-Specific Characteristics and the Timing of Foreign Direct Investment Projects

This paper uses a proportional hazard model to study foreign direct investment by Japanese manufacturers in Europe between 1970 and 1994. We divide each firm’s investment total into a sequence of individual investment decisions and analyze how firm-specific characteristics affect each decision. We find that total factor productivity is a significant determinant of a firm’s initial and subsequent investments. Parent-firm size does not have a significant influence on the initial decision to invest. Large firms simply have more investments than smaller firms. Other firm-specific characteristics, such as the R&D intensity, export share and keiretsu membership, also play a role in the investment process. JEL no. F23, L20     

后金融危机时代社会养老保险基金投资策略研究——基于亚洲新兴市场国家的政策研究

上世纪90年代我国引进了养老保险个人账户,确立了统账结合的养老保险制度,我国的社会养老保险基金规模日益增大,如何将国家规模巨大的社保基金高效投资,实现保值增值,成为讨论之热点。本文结合亚洲典型的新兴市场国家养老金的投资策略及其政府政策规定,深度剖析中国养老金投资现状,提出并规划了有效的投资策略新路径。     

基本养老金市场化投资的理论依据与风险控制

文章从养老金投资与资本市场互动的视角,以全国社会保障基金和资本市场发展数据为样本,通过格兰杰因果检验和协整检验,研究养老金投资与资本市场发展两者之间的互动关系,为我国基本养老金能否进行入市投资寻求证据支撑,实证表明全国社保基金的投资是我国资本市场发展的重要原因,结果支持我国基本养老金进行市场化投资。同时,运用资产组合原理,模拟成熟市场中的风险环境,通过测算得出,我国基本养老金入市投资承受与美国养老金投资相当的风险,其资产组合中股票配置的比例应控制在30%以内。     

基于公共产品供给理论的地方政府投资制度改革——以城市轨道交通投资为例

政府投资主要是提供公共产品,但仅由政府提供会出现不经济。公共产品的内涵分析也表明私人是可以供给公共产品的,但要解决公共产品外部性问题。以城市轨道交通投资为例分析,发现通过外部收益内部化我国香港地铁实现了盈利,内地政府借鉴其经验,大力引进社会资金投资地铁,减轻了资金压力,提高了投资的效率。这表明通过分析投资对象特点和制度安排是能够改变当前政府投资制度的,即社会资金是愿意进入公共产品供给的,政府是可以从某些领域退出的。     

我国养老保险基金的投资运营分析

21世纪的中国将是一个不可逆转的老龄社会。随着我国人口老龄化加速发展,如何确保养老保险基金顺利保值增值,安稳度过21世纪30年代养老金支付高峰期,在人口老龄化加速发展的现实面前显得尤为重要,一个重要的途径就是进行投资。文章从养老保险基金的投资运营现状进行分析,对养老保险基金进行多元化投资和健全基金监管制度提出具体建议。     

基于价值投资理论的最优证券投资组合探讨

文章分析了现代证券投资组合理论与价值投资理论的对立以及各自优缺点,并根据价值投资理论对风险的度量进行重新定义,借用现代证券投资组合的思想构建基于价值投资理论的最优证券投资组合。     

China as a Net Creditor： An Indication of Strength or Weaknesses？

China's international investment position is characterized by large net foreign assets, a dominance of low‐return foreign exchange reserves and costly foreign direct investment in foreign assets and foreign liabilities. In addition, China's foreign investment positions are facing potentially large exchange risks. These features reflect entrenched institutional and structural problems in China, including underdeveloped capital markets, biased resource allocation and a defective social security system. China's net creditor status might actually be an indication of weakness rather than strength. To improve its international investment position, China must speed up economic reforms and allow the market to play a fundamental role in resource allocation.     

Application of Real Option Theory on Investment Decision of Mineral Resources Exploration Project

Mineral resources exploration projects always have long periods, large investments and high risks. At present NPV is a generally accepted method for investment decision of mineral resources exploration project; however, traditional NPV method is very limited to deal with uncertainties and flexibilities of mineral resources exploration projects, which can increase the value of the project. The real option theory provides a new way and quantitative tool for investors to consider the option and flexibility and gain management flexibility on their investment decision-making. This paper applies the real option theory to analyze a case of simplified mineral resources exploration project and discusses its application conditions in China.     

Corporate Governance Reform and Executive Incentives: Implications for Investments and Risk Taking

We investigate the mechanism through which the Sarbanes Oxley Act (SOX) was associated with changes in corporate investment strategies. We document that the passage of the governance regulations in SOX was followed by a significant decline in pay‐performance sensitivity (Delta) and incentives to take risk (Vega) in CEOs' compensation contracts. These changes in compensation contracts are related to a decline in investments, including research and development expenditures, capital investments and acquisitions. Moreover, consistent with the rules in SOX directly affecting CEOs' incentives to take risk, we document that the decline in investments exceeds the amount that would be expected from changes in compensation packages alone. Finally, we also find evidence that the changes in investments are related to lower operating performances of firms, suggesting that these changes were costly to investors. Our evidence speaks to the debate on how corporate governance regulation interacts with firms' and managers' incentives, and ultimately affects corporate operating and investment strategies. Our study suggests that one indirect cost of such regulations in SOX is the significant reductions in corporate risk‐taking activities in the post‐SOX period. The changes in investments were in part due to changes in executive compensation contracts and in part related to increased executives' personal costs of engaging in risky activities.     

China＇s Outward Direct and Portfolio Investments

This paper analyzes developments and trends related to China's outward direct and financial investments by examining Chinese firms’overseas acquisitions, China's holdings of US Treasury securities, and the recently formally launched Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor programs. Strategies should be developed to reach optimal decisions for both direct and portfolio investments. We argue that China should have a longer‐term view for both direct and portfolio investments, enabling China to become the leader in Asia while maintaining its sustainable growth objective. China should invest heavily in the development of the Asian bond market and the Asian Currency Fund when making both portfolio and direct investment decisions.     

浅谈人力资本出资的意义、风险和控制

随着经济的高速发展,人力资本出资已经是大势所趋.文章通过讨论人力资本出资在当前企业经营中所起到的积极作用揭示了人力资本出资的必然性,讨论了由于人力资本的特性所导致的人力资本出资所特有的一些风险以及对于这些风险的控制及防范措施.     

养老金投资与资本市场互动发展研究综述——兼论对中国基本养老金市场化投资的启示

目前社会各界对中国基本养老金市场化投资存在较大分歧,但相应的观点主要流于简单逻辑推理,缺乏足够的理论和实证数据的支持.文章通过对国内外学者就发达国家和发展中国家养老金投资与资本市场两者之间关系的相关文献进行回顾,从理论和实证两方面探讨两者呈现的关系及其约束条件,推论得出具有一般适应性的结论.并结合我国基本养老金管理体制和资本市场的现状,提出我国基本养老金市场化投资的政策建议.     

企业年金投资管理研究

随着我国养老金制度改革的日益深入,以及企业年金规模的扩大,呼唤多渠道实现企业年金保值增值的要求也随即被提到议事日程上来,如何加强企业年金投资管理成为一个重要课题。论文先简单回顾了企业年金在我国的发展历程,接着指出企业年金投资应遵循的原则,最后着重对企业年金的潜力投资工具作了祥尽的分析。     

Risk Control of Pension Fund Management in China

Based on an analysis of China's current pension system, the present paper indicates that risk control of pension fund management is a serious policy challenge for the Chinese Government. Although some reform efforts have been made, there are still serious institutional and capital market risks that are difficult to overcome but are key in the success of China's pension reform. To ensure a smooth transition in pension reform, China not only needs to build a better institutional framework and facilitate capital market development, but also raise the risk awareness of individual pensioners.     

Linguistic Information Quality in Customers' Forward‐Looking Disclosures and Suppliers' Investment Decisions

This study examines whether and how linguistic information quality (measured by readability) of customer firms' management earnings forecast reports (MEFRs) affects supplier firms' investment quality (measured by investment efficiency). Our analyses reveal that supplier investment efficiency is positively associated with the average linguistic information quality of customers' prior MEFRs, and the positive association between supplier investment efficiency and customer MEFRs' numerical information quality is stronger in supplier firms with more readable customer MEFRs. Our analyses also reveal that higher linguistic information quality of customer MEFRs improves the monitoring of supplier firms by their outside stakeholders, such as institutional investors and financial analysts, and ameliorates the negative impact of suppliers' customer‐dependence on their investment efficiency. Our results suggest that greater linguistic information quality of a customer firm's forward‐looking disclosures is associated with higher‐quality investments made by its suppliers along the supply chain.     

The Role of Pension Business Benefits in Institutional Block Ownership and Corporate Governance*

We investigate whether potential pension contracting benefits lead institutions that provide pension services to acquire ownership blocks in firms and the implications of such blockholdings on the firms' corporate governance. We use the 2006 Pension Protection Act, which expanded pension participation in certain states, as a quasi-exogenous shock and find an increase in block ownership by pension-providing institutions in firms with substantial operations in affected states. Further, we find that the acquisition of a large block increases the likelihood that the institution will provide future pension services to the firm. With regard to corporate governance, we find that the acquisition of large pension blockholdings is associated with higher CEO pay and lower CEO turnover following poor financial performance. However, contrary to the prediction of the private benefits hypothesis, we do not find consistent evidence that large pension blockholdings are associated with declining firm profitability, suggesting that pension institutions are incentivized to exert monitoring to preserve the investment value of their blockholdings. Overall, our evidence is consistent with pension service institutions acquiring ownership blocks to obtain pension contracts, but our evidence does not support the prediction that they use their influence to compromise shareholder value.     

社会保障基金海外投资分析

本文分析了全国社会保障基金目前的投资运营状况,并通过资产组合理论讨论了海外投资的重要意义;同时研究了12个OECD国家和3个新兴市场国家的养老基金海外投资情况,以及爱尔兰和挪威养老储备基金的案例,并从中借鉴成功做法和有益经验。文章指出,投资于海外资本市场是社保基金分散风险、保证收益的最佳途径,并在最后对海外投资策略提出建议。     

Labor Quality and Inward FDI： A Firm-level Empirical Study in China

This paper investigates the relationship between labor quality and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) distribution in China using a large sample of Chinese cross‐sectional, firm‐level data, with comprehensive information about labor quality. The paper finds that labor quality measured by education level plays an important role in deciding the distribution of inward FDI, but labor quality measured by working certificates loses its significance using non‐parametric matching techniques and the instrumental variables and generalized method of moments technique. The author also finds that labor quality has a more significant impact on other foreign investments than Hong Kong‐invested, Macau‐invested and Taiwan‐invested firms. The impacts of labor quality on inward FDI are found to be strongly uneven across industries and provinces. Therefore, China should pay more attention to the education of employees in all foreign‐invested firms, and invest more in education to improve labor quality, which will help China to attract more FDI, especially technology‐intensive FDI.