汇率风险对冲如何影响企业并购行为——基于自由现金流的视角

本文基于2001—2019年上市公司年报中关于外汇衍生品的使用信息,研究发现,使用外汇衍生品的上市公司相比未使用的公司发起并购的概率更低,但并购的市场和经营绩效有所提高。主要原因在于,中国上市公司进行并购通常以企业自有资金进行现金支付,外汇衍生品的使用大幅降低了公司出于预防性动机而持有的现金,从而降低了公司发起并购的概率。此外,进行汇率风险对冲可避免公司因持有大量自由现金流而发生的过度投资行为,从而提高了公司的投资效率。总体而言,使用外汇衍生品进行汇率风险对冲可使上市公司更注重并购质量而非并购数量,从而实现“少而精”的投资策略。本文研究对进一步厘清企业使用外汇衍生品的相关影响提供了一定参考。     

基于现金流模型的我国旅游业外汇风险暴露研究

汇率变动导致的国际市场需求变化会引起旅游业的外汇风险暴露。通过构建基于需求的经营性外汇风险暴露模型（经营性现金流模型）和旅游业加权汇率指数（TTWI）,采用2005—2011年国内上市旅游公司的数据,对我国旅游公司的经营性现金流进行实证分析。研究发现,有很大比例旅游公司的经营性活动暴露于外汇风险之下,其外汇风险暴露形式呈现出非线性、非对称和滞后性的特征。旅游公司在管理外汇风险暴露时,可通过投资于外币资产或使用外币负债在总现金流上分散汇率风险。     

Exchange rates and casualties during the first world war

I estimate two factor models of Swiss exchange rates during the First World War. I have data for five of the primary belligerents: Britain, France, Italy, Germany, and Austria-Hungary. At the outbreak of the war, these nations suspended convertibility of their currencies into gold with the promise that after the war each would restore convertibility at the old par. However, once convertibility was suspended, the value of each currency depended on the outcome of the war. From these exchange rates I extract a common trend and a common factor. Movements in the common trend are consistent with the quantity theory of money. The common factor contains information on contemporaries’ expectations about the war's resolution. This common factor and its innovations are correlated with time series on soldiers killed, wounded, and taken prisoner.     

The formation and early development of German audit firms

This paper examines the emergence of audit firms in Germany through an analysis of contemporary sources. Special attention is paid to the range of services offered, their legal forms and ownership structure. In Germany, the demand for external audits developed because the corporate supervisory boards had been unable to fulfil their monitoring task satisfactorily. As a consequence of the major economic crisis of 1929-1931 and the collapse of large corporations caused by the fraudulent actions of managing directors, statutory audits for stock corporations were introduced in 1931. The first German audit and trust company, the Deutsche Treuhand-Gesellschaft, was established much earlier in 1890. Like other trust companies which emerged from 1905 onwards, it was owned by large banks. After the First World War, large commercial groups on the one hand, and the state on the other hand, started to form their own audit firms. Most of the audit and trust companies used the legal form of a corporation. Originally, the main activities of the trust companies were trustee activities and audits. Subsequently, they also offered tax and business advisory services. These features (a broad range of services offered, the corporation as the dominant legal form, and clients who are also owners) help us to understand key characteristics of modern German audit firms such as their limited liability to third parties.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF SELECTIVE EXCHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT–EVIDENCE FROM GERMAN NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS

Survey studies of both corporate exchange risk management and the corporate use of derivatives in general have shown considerable variation in managerial practices. Some firms do not hedge open positions at all, and some hedge their exposures completely. Most companies, however, hedge only those positions on which they expect a currency loss, while leaving open positions on which they expect a currency gain—a practice known as “selective hedging.” Finally, there is a small minority of firms that engage in outright speculation, deliberately creating risk exposures in addition to those arising from their normal business operations. Such findings are consistent with survey studies that suggest that a majority of corporate financial managers appear to believe that they are able to “beat the market”—a belief that, of course, is inconsistent with efficient markets theory. So why do some companies follow selective risk management strategies while other firms hedge open positions without recourse to exchange rate forecasts? In an attempt to answer this question, the author surveyed 74 German non‐financial companies about their exchange risk management practices. He found that highly levered firms were less likely to take bets in the currency markets, while bank‐controlled firms were more likely to use a selective risk management strategy. There was a negative relationship between profitability and the use of selective hedging—a finding that could be interpreted as suggesting that selective hedging does not generally benefit the firm's shareholders. Finally, there was a weak tendency for larger firms to be more inclined to use forecasts in their foreign exchange risk management.     

EFFECTS OF THE EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION ON INSURANCE BUSINESS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Abstract: The European Monetary Union is intended to bring about a number of positive consequences, such as more effectiveness and lower cost in foreign trade, economic growth and – not least – an internationally competitive currency. In the short run, two of these effects are of particular interest, namely reduction of exchange rate risk and transaction cost. The paper first describes the scope of these problems, analyzing bid-ask spreads for EU-currencies and selected transaction costs. The particular prospects of insurance companies in EMU-countries depend mainly on their activities in foreign markets. We will therefore look into present foreign business in insurance and the relevance of the single currency for acquisition of production factors and capital investment decisions.     

舞弊治理：基于上市公司财务舞弊特征的分析

选取2003～2007年度5645家沪深两地上市公司为样本,首先对其中209家舞弊公司财务舞弊的影响因素做统计分析,明晰上市公司财务舞弊的特征;然后,根据舞弊公司不同特征进一步实证检验,得出大规模事务所的选择、股权集中度、公司规模与财务舞弊负相关,独立董事比例与财务舞弊成"U"型关系,但没有发现代表财务状况指标净资产收益率的显著性影响,究其原因,发现舞弊公司存在虚增利润以外的其他更多隐性盈余操纵手段.     

汇率敏感性会影响企业贷款利率吗？——基于中国上市公司的分析

本文基于中国A股上市公司2009-2018年的数据,测算了企业价值对人民币汇率变动的敏感性。在此基础上,实证检验了汇率敏感性(企业价值对汇率变动的敏感程度)对企业贷款利率的影响和作用机制。研究发现:汇率敏感性与企业贷款利率之间显著正相关,且这种关系在拥有境外收入、境外投资和使用外汇衍生品的公司中更加显著。进一步分析发现,对于存在密切银企关系、较大的股东债权人利益冲突以及抵押品价值较低的企业,汇率敏感性与贷款利率之间的正相关关系更加显著。本文研究结果表明,随着我国市场化改革的进一步深化,贷款利率将会更加显著地反映企业的汇率敏感性特征。这种效应对于存在海外业务、银行更了解借款公司信息,以及违约可能性更高的公司更加明显。本文研究对于增强我国企业应对汇率风险能力,完善金融机构风险定价能力,引导金融机构服务实体企业具有一定参考意义。     

The Impact of the Introduction of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Risk Management in UK Multinational Companies

One of the arguments in favour of the euro is that it will eliminate foreign exchange risk for companies in the euro‐zone. There could also be benefits for companies outside this zone, although their currency risk with the euro remains. This paper considers this, by examining the effect of the euro on the currency risk management of UK multinational companies (MNCs). Using the responses from a questionnaire and interviews we found that the euro, which is being widely used in UK MNCs, is generally favoured due to reductions in exchange uncertainty and costs of managing currency risk. Nonetheless, contrary to what would theoretically be expected, there was no exact relationship in the reduction in hedging activity accompanied by this reduction in risk. The majority of MNCs stated that their hedging activities would remain unchanged. The capacity of MNCs to benefit from reductions in risk and hedging depend on the proportion of non‐UK European trade, the industry sector and the ability to transfer risk down the supply chain. Finally, despite the reductions in currency exposure experienced by the majority of companies the euro will not encourage UK MNCs to expand international trade.     

Stealing Deposits: Deposit Insurance,Risk‐Taking,and the Removal of Market Discipline in Early 20th‐Century Banks

Deposit insurance reduces liquidity risk but can increase insolvency risk by encouraging reckless behavior. Several U.S. states installed deposit insurance laws before the creation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and those laws applied only to some depository institutions within those states. These experiments present a unique testing ground for investigating the effect of deposit insurance. We show that deposit insurance removed market discipline constraining uninsured banks. Taking advantage of World War I's rise in world agricultural prices, insured banks increased their insolvency risk and competed aggressively for deposits. When prices fell after the war, the insurance systems collapsed and suffered high losses.     

《孙子兵法》与现代商战纵横谈

《孙子兵法》是我国也是世界上最早、最完整、最卓越的军事理论著作,是中华民族数千年灿烂文明长河中,令世界叹为观止的闪烁着真理光芒的文化瑰宝,一直为世人所推崇。《孙子兵法》为世界第一“兵学盛典”,已在世界范围内广泛传播,应用领域极为广泛,更倍受商界青睐。日本企业家将其奉为至宝,美国商人视其为“金科玉律”。军队是在战场上拼杀,企业是在市场上作战,二者有相当的相似性,《孙子兵法》是伟大的商战博弈论,故可为现代商战所用。《孙子兵法》中“上兵伐谋”的战略思想、“五事七计”的决策思想、不战而胜的“全胜”思想、“以利制权”的“权变”思想,则是现代商战的制胜法宝。     

人民币汇率波动如何影响中国企业的对外直接投资?

基于2005-2017 "中国全球投资跟踪数据库"的对外投资微观数据,本文考察人民币汇率波动的不确定性对中国企业对外直接投资的影响。研究发现:人民币汇率波动的增加,不仅减少了中国企业对外直接投资的可能性,也抑制了投资规模,这一结果在考虑内生性问题、样本选择性偏差、不同的汇率波动指标等一系列问题后仍然稳健。基于手工搜集的企业年报数据,研究发现,企业前期的套期保值行为,可以有效规避汇率风险,弱化汇率波动对企业对外投资的抑制作用。进一步研究显示,汇率波动对中国企业对外投资的影响有明显的异质性,投资于不同行业、不同国家的企业以及不同投资方式的企业对人民币汇率波动的反应各异,这又与中国现阶段对外投资的一些独特特征有关。本文研究为汇率波动影响中国企业的对外直接投资行为提供了微观层面的证据。     

How it all began: the rise of listing requirements on the London, Berlin, Paris, and New York stock exchanges

The issue of accounting standards for foreign securities listed on a stock exchange arose gradually over the period 1825-1914 among the leading exchanges in the first global financial market—London, New York, Paris, and Berlin. Comparing their listing requirements on the eve of World War I, we find that the London and New York exchanges were most detailed, reflecting their common-law legal environments and their status as self-regulating organizations. The evolution of listing requirements in London and New York therefore influenced the development of accounting standards in those countries. By contrast, Paris and Berlin relied on validation of a security by political authorities. One result of these differences in legal and political environments was that American railroads issued the only securities to be listed on each of the four exchanges.     

我国涉外企业外汇交易风险研究

随着世界经济逐步向全球一体化的方向发展以及我国对WTO相关条款的逐步履行,我国与其他国家的经济往来也变得更加频繁。更为重要的是,我国外汇管理体制改革的进一步深化和外汇市场的发展和完善,使得人民币汇率开始走向市场,汇率变动的频率和范围将大大增强。因此,在这一背景下,本文以科学性和前瞻性为指导原则,通过阐述我国涉外企业面临的外汇交易风险现状和问题,揭示这类企业加强外汇交易风险管理的必要性,在此基础上,来探讨外汇交易风险对我国涉外企业净利润的影响,最终结合我国外汇管理体制改革的实践,提出有效防范和规避外汇交易风险的建议和对策。     

Were Modern Capital Structure Theories Valid in Belgium Before World War I?

Abstract:  This study investigates whether modern theories can explain capital structure in a historical environment which was characterized by poor investor protection, booming stock markets and strong banks, and in which taxes did not affect leverage. Our results, based on a unique, hand-collected sample of 556 firm-year observations for 129 listed companies in Belgium before World War I, are remarkably similar to findings for present-day samples. Leverage was positively related to asset tangibility, firm size and firm age, and it was negatively related to profitability and prior stock returns. Bank relationships were associated with lower leverage.     

The new world disorder

On January 1, 1995, representatives from 76 countries signed the World Trade Organization charter, which for years had been part of a temporary trade agreement. The WTO's emergence as a fully empowered supranational body seemed to reflect the triumph of what the first President Bush had described as the "new world order." That order was based on two assumptions: that a healthy economy and a sound financial system make for political stability, and that countries in business together do not fight each other. The number one priority of U.S. foreign policy was thus to encourage the former Communist countries of Europe and the developing nations in Latin America, Asia, and Africa to adopt business-friendly policies. Private capital would flow from the developed world into these countries, creating economic growth. It sounded too good to be true, and so it proved. The new world order of Bush père and his successor, Bill Clinton, has been replaced by the new world disorder of Bush fils. Under the second Bush's administration, the economic and political rationale-behind the Washington consensus of the 1990s has unraveled, forcing a radical change in our perceptions of which countries are safe for business. Negotiating this new environment will require companies to more rigorously evaluate political events and more carefully assess the links between political, economic, and financial risk factors. They'll need to be more selective about which markets to enter, and they'll need to think differently about how to position themselves in those markets. The geopolitical events of the past year, the Bush administration's global war on terror, as well as ongoing convulsions in traditional political and economic relationships must be understood and managed by corporate leaders worldwide. With careful analysis, business leaders can increase their companies' visibility and better respond to the uncertainties of the new world disorder.     

Exposure to currency risk by US multinational corporations

Despite evidence that large US multinational corporations are hedging their exchange rate risk exposure, existing literature on the measurement of exchange rate risk does not give us a tool to measure the effect of such hedging activities of multinational firms. This paper revisited the measurement of exchange rate risk exposure using the cumulative translation adjustment as a trade-weighted dollar index faced by individual companies. We find that especially small multinational firms are exposed to foreign exchange risk and benefit from a weakening in the international value of the US dollar. The results also indicate that hedging activities by large firms are not so effective to eliminate exchange risk. Two industries in particular show a highly significant relation between changes in the cumulative translation account and equity returns, however, with an opposite sign, i.e. positive for electrical equipment and negative for primary metals.     

Entering China: an unconventional approach

Conventional wisdom has it that the best way to do business in China is through an equity joint venture (EJV) with a well-connected Chinese partner. But pioneering companies are starting a trend toward a new way to enter that market: as a wholly foreign-owned enterprise, or WFOE. Increasingly, says the author, joint ventures do not offer foreign companies what they need to succeed in China. For example, many companies want to do business nationally, but the prospects for finding a Chinese partner with national scope are poor. Moreover, there are often conflicting perceptions between partners about how to operate an EJV: Chinese companies, for example, typically have a more immediate interest in profits than foreign investors do. By contrast, the author asserts, WFOEs are faster to set up and easier to manage; and they allow managers to expand operations more rapidly. That makes them the perfect solution, right? The answer is a qualified yes. First, foreign companies will still need sources of guanxi, or social and political connections. Second, managers must take steps to avoid trampling on China's cultural or economic sovereignty. Third and perhaps most important, foreign companies must be prepared to bring something of value to China-usually in the form of jobs or new technology that can help the country develop. Companies willing to make the effort, says the author, can reap the rewards of China's burgeoning marketplace.     

Financial Integration, Dis‐integration and Emerging Re‐integration in the Eastern Mediterranean, c.1850 to the Present

The financial integration that concerns us is that of the linking of national banking systems through the opening of branches by banks of one country in another. In the inter‐war period, banks from England and France established branches in the countries of the eastern Mediterranean, as did banks originating in those countries. However, after World War II there came a period of nationalization and nostrification that cut the countries' banks off from each other's markets. If domestic financial systems matter to economic development and growth, and if foreign banks contribute to the development of financial systems, then these policies were a self‐inflicted wound. As barriers to foreign banks have fallen since the mid‐1970s the region has started to integrate again, but in a process that is far from complete.     

UK Accounting Disclosure Practices and Information Asymmetry During the First Quarter of the Twentieth Century: The Effects on Book Returns and Dividend Cover

During the first quarter of the twentieth century there was marked information asymmetry as between senior managers and shareholders. The differences in information provision can be dichotomised into 'volume' and 'distortion' effects. This paper measures the (matched pair) differences between two standard measures of corporate performance, returns on equity capital and equity dividend cover, based on internal and then published data, in each case derived from a broadly-based set of quoted companies in UK industrial sectors. The results suggest that levels of information distortion were low until 1914, and material and much higher, after rather than during the First World War.