人民币汇率变动对中国出口商品结构的影响分析

通过1985年～2010年资源密集型产品出口额(SITC0-4)、劳动密集型产品出口额(SITC6、SITC8)和资本技术密集型产品出口额(SITC5、SITC7)与人民币实际有效汇率指数及非市场因素出口退税额的协整分析,认为出口额的汇率弹性由大到小依次为劳动密集型产品、资本技术密集型产品、资源密集型产品,因而人民币实际有效汇率升值有利于优化我国出口商品结构,至少是工业制成品出口结构.同时,从出口退税额前的相关系数来看,中国应转变出口退税的政策倾向,加大对资本技术密集型产品出口的支持力度.     

Examining the Paths from Export Strategic Orientations to Export Performance: The Mediating Role of Export Resource Transformation Capability

Export strategic orientation research suggests that export entrepreneurial orientation (EO) and market orientation (MO) directly affect export performance. Based on the dynamic capability theory, this study hypothesizes that export resource transformation capability is an intervening factor that helps explain how EO and MO, individually and jointly, impact export performance. Using archival and survey data from small and medium‐sized exporters in the United Kingdom and Nigeria, the study finds that export resource transformation capability partially mediates the individual effects of EO and MO on export performance in both samples. Results further show that export resource transformation capability does not mediate the joint effect of EO and MO on export performance. The findings help provide a more complete understanding of how export strategic orientations might be related to export performance. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

中国对非洲直接投资与贸易的关系研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

文章从理论上回顾了对外直接投资的贸易效应,以非洲33个国家为样本,运用2002～2006年的数据,建立了中国对非洲直接投资与贸易之间关系的面板数据(Panel Data)模型,并进行了实证分析.研究发现,我国对非洲国家直接投资与贸易存在着互补效应;我国对非洲直接投资尚处于起步阶段,进一步拓展非洲市场有利于创造中非合作双赢局面.     

美元贬值对中国进出口企业的影响及对策

美元下跌之势难抑,国际外汇市场风险加剧。美元的贬值影响到以美元计价商品进口成本的提高,从而压缩了企业利润水平,容易诱发新一轮的贸易保护和贸易摩擦。人民币采取盯住美元有管理的固定汇率制度,美元贬值使人民币被动贬值。在长期实行的结售汇制定下,企业调整外汇净头寸的能力非常差,汇率波动对净头寸造成的损失是巨大的。中国应加强对未来汇率变动趋势的预测和把握,从根源上铲除被诉反倾销的隐患。     

员工情感状态与工作满意度对工作绩效的影响:领导-部属交换的调节作用

本文运用多层线性回归分析方法,探讨了员工个体内层面因素(积极情感、消极情感和工作满意度)对员工工作绩效(任务绩效、情境绩效和反生产绩效)的影响,并检验了个体间层面因素(领导-部属交换)对这些影响的跨层调节作用。研究结果表明:员工的积极情感与其任务绩效和情境绩效正相关;员工的消极情感与其反生产绩效正相关;与领导-部属交换水平高的员工相比,低水平领导-部属交换的员工,积极情感与情境绩效的正相关关系更强。     

人民币汇率与中美贸易收支结构研究

在国际金融危机的压力下,一些国家的贸易保护主义开始抬头,中国的对外贸易又成为众人关注的焦点。美国是中国的主要贸易伙伴国,中美贸易关系的发展不仅对各自的经济有极其重要的作用,而且对世界经济发展越来越具有影响力。关于人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡问题的研究表明,改善中美贸易收支的关键在于中国经济的持续增长。     

汇改对我国中小企业出口的影响测度与预测——基于汇改后月度数据的实证分析

当前我国中小企业出口经营困境凸显,进一步汇改是否会加剧其困境成为关注的焦点。本文基于汇改后的月度数据,采用GARCH模型分析各次汇改对汇率弹性的影响特征,构建向量误差修正模型测度和预测汇改对中小企业出口的影响。结果表明:汇改促使人民币每升值1%,其出口减少3.874%;汇率弹性增强1%,其出口减少0.034%。预测的中小企业出口总额较为平稳。进一步汇改以增强汇率弹性为核心不会对中小企业出口总量造成大的冲击。     

Export diversification,specialisation and inequality: Evidence from Asian and Western countries

This paper examines the dynamic effect of globalization at the disaggregated level of sectoral export diversification and manufacturing specialization on income inequality using a panel data set of 52 Asian and Western countries from 1988 to 2014. The paper uses dynamic panel data models applying the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations that provide more accurate and better results than those obtained with static panel data models. The results suggest that there is no statistically significant relationship between manufacturing specialization and inequality while sectoral export diversification has been the driving force of inequality. For sub-groups of countries, higher sectoral export diversification increases inequality and higher manufacturing specialization decreases inequality in high-income Asian countries and European Union (EU) member states. Moreover, the study finds insignificant effects in low-income Asian countries and Anglo-Saxon countries.     

Enhancing Export Performance for Business Markets: Effects of Interorganizational Relationships on Export Market Orientation (EMO)

Purpose: Drawing on the relationship marketing perspective, this study explores the effects of interorganizational relationship variables on export market orientation (EMO), in turn enhancing the export performance. Furthermore, firm internationalization was included as a moderator between export market-oriented behavior and export performance.

Methodology: The authors tested the hypotheses via a mail survey involving 235 exporting firms. LISREL and regression analysis were used to test the proposed model.

Findings: The results support the hypotheses, which posit that commitment, trust, and social interaction are positively related to EMO behavior, whereas power is negatively related to such behavior. Second, firm EMO behavior is positively related to export performance. Third, the degree of internationalization strengthens the effect of EMO on export performance.

Research implications: This study improves existing theoretical understanding by supporting the relationship marketing perspective and international channel research for performing export market-oriented behaviors.

Practical implications: The leverage of interorganizational relationships appears a solid strategy for performing export market-oriented behaviors. Exporters can focus not only on export market-oriented behaviors being performed but also on expansion to new markets.

Originality/value: This study contributes to the marketing and international business literature and provides insights to exporters by examining the relationships among interorganizational relationship variables, EMO, and export performance. This study also introduces the degree of internationalization from a contingency-based view and demonstrates that internationalization complements EMO, and thus facilitates export performance.     

新台币升值对台湾出口的影响及实证分析

通过对1973～1992年新台币汇率变化与台湾出口之间的关系两个变量的单位根检验和协整分析,得出以下结论:台湾的汇率与其出口之间不存在长期稳定的协整关系,新台币的升值没有立即抑制台湾的出口,并且也未对其产生滞后影响,从而打破了传统理论认为货币升值会抑制出口并增加进口的说法.新台币汇率的变动及结果给人民币汇率的调整提供了借鉴意义.     

基于创新绩效的杭州市出口优势产业转型升级研究

在对杭州市出口优势产业进行筛选及判定的基础上,采用经济学统计方法以及DEA-Tobit两阶段分析法对纺织服装业、装备制造业的创新投入和创新效率进行8个城市间的对比分析,发现杭州市纺织服装业无论是在创新投入还是在创新效率方面均存在相对不足,装备制造业的主要问题集中在创新投入相对不足上。针对杭州市出口优势产业存在的问题,分别从技术、营销和产业链整合等方面提出转型升级建议。     

“奖出限入”政策的理论渊源及对我国对外贸易的启示

"奖出限入"政策的理论渊源产生于资本主义早期的重商主义,这种思想在当时是代表时代潮流的,而且对促进早期资本主义的发展起到了一定的催化剂作用,对研究资本主义经济关系及理论方面有重大参考价值。随着世界各国对我国实施的反倾销和保障措施愈来愈强烈,我国实施的贸易保护政策,应在多边贸易体系的框架下进行适度的有选择的保护,同时要将进口优惠对象尽可能限定于重大技术装备领域。这样,既有利于化解技术设备进口与振兴装备制造业之间的矛盾,也可以增进同其他国家的友好贸易,减少贸易纷争和贸易摩擦。     

Expansion Strategies of European Banks to Brazil and Their Impacts on the Brazilian Banking Sector

ABSTRACT

This paper aims at analyzing the main determinants and impacts of the recent wave of European banks entering Brazil. The principal hypothesis of the paper is that this wave can only be understood if one considers both external and internal determinants. External determinants concern the process of banking consolidation in the European financial system under the EMU that has stimulated some banks to expand abroad. Internal determinants are mainly related to the gradual flexibilisation of legal restrictions with respect to the presence of foreign banks in the Brazilian banking sector. Finally, the paper evaluates the impacts of the recent entry of European banks into the retail banking market in Brazil. In this particular matter, it shows that foreign entry has affected the national banking market forcing domestic banks to operate more efficiently, and also to expand their activities organically or by mergers and acquisitions. The paper concludes that there is no clear evidence that foreign banks have been more efficient than domestic banks in Brazil in the recent period, but there is some evidence that the big private Brazilian banks have reacted positively to the entry of foreign banks.

RESUMEN. Este documento tiene el propósito de analizar los determinantes más importantes de los impactos de la reciente onda de bancos europeos que llegaron al Brasil. La principal hipótesis del texto és que la onda sólo puede entenderse si se consideran ambos determinantes: los externos y los internos. Los determinantes externos conciernen el proceso de la consolidación bancaria en el sistema financiero europeo bajo el EMU, que ha estimulado a algunos bancos a expandirse en el exterior. Los determinantes internos son especialmente aquellos relacionados a la flexibilización gradual de las restricciones legales con respecto a la presencia de los bancos extranjeros en el sector de la banca brasileña. Finalmente, el texto también evalúa los impactos de la reciente entrada de los bancos Europeos en los mercados de la banca minorista en el Brasil. Cuanto a esta preocupación particular, parece que la entrada de los bancos extranjeros ha afectado el mercado banquero nacional, forzando a los bancos domésticos a operar con mayor eficiencia y también a expandir sus actividades orgánicamente, o por medio de fusiones u adquisiciones. El documento concluye que no existe ninguna prueba clara de que los bancos extranjeros son más eficientes que los brasileños en el período reciente, pero sí existen evidencias de que los grandes bancos privados brasileños han reaccionado positivamente a la entrada de los bancos extranjeros.

RESUMO. Este artigo objetiva analisar os principais determinantes e impactos da recente onda de bancos europeus que se instalaram no Brasil. A hipótese principal deste trabalho é de que esta onda só pode ser entendida se forem considerados os determinantes externos e internos. Os determinantes externos tratam do processo de consolidação bancária no sistema financeiro europeu que, sob o sistema da Unidade Monetária Européia, estimulou alguns bancos a se expandirem para o exterior. Os determinantes internos estão relacionados, principalmente, à flexibilização gradual das restriç[otilde]es legais no que diz respeito à presença de bancos estrangeiros no setor bancário brasileiro. Finalmente, o artigo também avalia os impactos da recente entrada de bancos europeus no mercado bancário de varejo do Brasil. Neste particular, ele mostra que a entrada estrangeira afetou o mercado bancário nacional, forçando os bancos nacionais a operarem com mais eficiência e, também, a expandirem suas atividades, organicamente ou através de fus[otilde]es e aquisiç[otilde]es. O artigo conclui que não há evidência clara de que os bancos estrangeiros sejam mais eficientes do que os bancos nacionais no Brasil no período recente, mas há alguma evidência de que os grandes bancos privados brasileiros reagiram positivamente à entrada dos bancos estrangeiros.     

基于ARIMA模型的中国外贸进出口预测:2006-2010

ARIMA(Auto-regressive Moving Average)模型是一种常用的随机时序模型,主要用于预测,短期预测精度较高。本文利用ARIMA模型预测了2006-2010年中国外贸进出口总额、出口总额和进口总额。     

Investigation of Directional and Functional Relationships of Australian Dollar Exchange Rate,Steam Coal Export,and Steam Coal Price

The interesting finding in this article is that the Australian coal exporter's loss, which occurs due to a strong Australian dollar, is less than the profit from increasingly higher prices of Australian steam coal. For this reason, Australian steam coal exporters choose to export more when the price is high. The empirical results of this analysis confirm that for each one cent increase in Australian dollar value against the U.S. dollar, the Australian steam coal price increases by 0.8182 U.S. dollars and for each additional one million tons export of Australian steam coal, the Australian steam coal price increases by 1.752 U.S. dollars.     

The Internet,Strategy and Performance: A Study of Australian Export Market Ventures

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impact of the Internet, firm-specific characteristics, market characteristics, and export marketing strategy on export marketing performance. The unit of analysis was an individual product/market export venture. Data were gathered via a self-administered mail survey of 315 Australian firms involved in exporting. The findings indicate that, when the Internet was used for communication purposes and to provide the firm with a competitive advantage, it had a significant impact on export marketing performance. Firm-specific characteristics and export marketing strategy also had a significant impact on export marketing performance.     

人民币对美元实际汇率与中美贸易净出口关系的实证研究

中美双方的统计结果均表明,中美双边的贸易顺差是巨大的。按照中方提供的数据,格兰杰因果检验结果是人民币对美元实际汇率的变化对中美贸易净出口的变化没有统计上的影响;而按照美方提供的数据,人民币对美元实际汇率的变化对中美贸易净出口的变化有统计上的影响。然而,由于美方的数据夸大了中美之间实际上的净出口,因此美国的结论是不成立的。要解决中美之间的贸易冲突,在人民币汇率上做文章是行不通的,只有找出引起中美贸易净出口扩大的真正原因,才能有效解决中美巨额贸易顺差的问题。     

汇率与中国对外出口关系的实证研究

运用Granger因果检验以及协整、误差修正模型、多元回归模型等计量经济学分析方法,对中国内资企业出口与汇率的关系进行实证分析,得出的主要结论是:实际有效汇率与中国企业内资出口间没有因果关系,并且无论在长期和短期实际有效汇率的变动都不能有效地解释内资出口的变动,说明人民币汇率的变化对内资出口影响非常小。国际上因为贸易逆差而指责中国的汇率政策,其理由是不充分的。     

服务出口与实际汇率动态关系分析:基于美国数据的考察

基于代表性家庭追求效用最大化,文中构建了一个由外国实际收入、汇率水平、货物出口以及经GARCH(1,1)模型估计所得条件方差作为汇率风险代理变量组成的服务出口方程。采用自回归分布滞后估计方程参数,并将汇率变动影响货物出口进而传导至服务出口的间接效应纳入分析框架。估计结果显示,汇率水平变动与服务出口之间存在负相关关系,而汇率风险却有助于推动服务出口;汇率变动对服务出口的累积净效应表明,汇率水平变动是汇率变动对服务出口最终影响效应的主导因素。最后从我国汇率变动与服务贸易发展角度也证实了该结论。