The Last Word on the Wage Curve?

Abstract.  Since 1990, there has been extensive international research on the responsiveness of wages of individuals to changing local labour market conditions. For many countries, an inverse relationship between wages and local unemployment rates has been found. In their book, The Wage Curve , Blanchflower and Oswald argued that the unemployment elasticity of pay is around −0.1 in most countries. In a 1995 literature survey, Card referred to this striking empirical regularity as being close to an 'empirical law of economics'. Nonetheless, reported elasticities do vary, even excluding outliers, between about −0.5 and +0.1. There is also considerable heterogeneity among wage curve studies in terms of data and model specification. This paper carries out meta‐analytic techniques on a sample of 208 elasticities derived from the literature to uncover the reasons for the differences in empirical results across studies. Several causes of variation are identified. There is also clear evidence of downward publication bias. In addition, many reported t ‐statistics are biased upwards due to the use of aggregate unemployment rates. A maximum likelihood method and a trimming procedure are used to correct for these biases. Both methods give similar results for our sample. An unbiased estimate of the wage curve elasticity at the means of study characteristics is about −0.07.     

How flexible are wages in EU accession countries?

The transition to a market economy and increased economic integration have fostered regional disparities in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). This paper investigates whether and to what extent wages could act as an equilibrating mechanism in these countries by adjusting to local market conditions. Using regional data for the 1990s, we estimate static and dynamic wage curve models for Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania. We find empirical evidence indicating that regional average earnings adjusted to local unemployment rates in Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland. This result suggests that in these countries wages could help equilibrate labour markets following demand shocks. In the case of Romania, the unemployment elasticity of pay was not significantly different from zero.     

NORWEGIAN WAGE CURVES

ABSTRACT The paper presents empirical evidence on wage formation in Norway using annual time series data for manufacturing industry. First, we show that long-run effects on consumer prices and taxes depend strongly on the exact definition of the empirical variables. Using the implicit factor income deflator, the wedge between consumer's and producer's real wages is insignificant. Second, our results indicate that there is a long-run tradeoff between the wage level and the unemployment ratio and the Phillips curve specification is firmly rejected. Third, the paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a strongly non-linear wage curve. Fourth, our results support the long-term unemployment hypothesis, as increased proportion of long-term unemployment shifts the wage curve outwards and to the right.     

Wage curve, unemployment duration and compensating differentials

In this study unemployment effects on individual pay are investigated following the study on ‘wage curves’ by Blanchflower and Oswald (1990). In bargaining models, higher unemployment should lower wage pressure; due to compensating wage differential arguments, on the other hand, workers who take jobs with higher layoff risks should be rewarded. In a cross-sectional study on Austrian data, a negative wage curve is confirmed. Contrary to the results by Blanchflower and Oswald no U-shape is found, also long-term unemployment seems to be important. No conclusive evidence of compensating differentials has been determined.     

Regional Efficiency Wages: Are They a Source of Real Earnings Differentials?

This paper investigates the role of spatial efficiency wage premiums as a partial explanation for both inter-industry and geographic wage differentials. The empirical approach is based on an analysis of panel data for six select manufacturing industries operating within specific (U.S.) states. Besides testing for the existence of a regional "wage curve," this research adds to the evidence on traditional determinants of spatial wage differentials. An explicit treatment of regional cost-of-living conditions is unique to the analysis; also, industry wage structures are accounted for in explaining regional wage differences. The findings here contribute to an initial body of evidence on regional efficiency wages. The empirical evidence indicates that the relationship between regional wages (nominal or real) and the local unemployment rate is much more complex than implied by the wage curve.     

An efficiency wage approach to reconciling the wage curve and the Phillips curve

This study develops an efficiency wage model that generates a wage curve at the regional level and a Phillips curve at the national level, under the assumption that workers' efficiency depends on both regional and aggregate labor market conditions. An equation relating wages to unemployment and lagged wages is derived from the profit-maximizing behavior of firms, and it is demonstrated that the coefficient on lagged wages is less than 1 with regional data but equals 1 with aggregate data. In addition, there is an equilibrium relationship between unemployment and wages at the regional level, but not at the aggregate level.     

Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics in a Panel of OECD Countries

We focus on the equilibrium unemployment rate as a parameter implied by a dynamic aggregate model of wage and price setting. The equilibrium unemployment rate depends on institutional labour market institutions through mark‐up coefficients. Compared with existing studies, the resulting final equation for unemployment has a richer dynamic structure. The empirical investigation is conducted in a panel data framework and uses OECD data up to 2012. We propose to extend the standard estimation method with time dummies to control and capture the effects of common and national shocks by using impulse indicator saturation (WG‐IIS), which has not been previously used on panel data. WG‐IIS robustifies the estimators of the regression coefficients in the dynamic model, and it affects the estimated equilibrium unemployment rates. We find that wage co‐ordination stands out as the most important institutional variable in our data set, but there is also evidence pointing to the tax wedge and the degree of compensation in the unemployment insurance system as drivers of equilibrium unemployment.     

The causal effect of the number of children on gender‐specific labour supply elasticities to the firm

We estimate the effect of the number of children on the female and the male wage elasticities of labour supply to the firm using instrumental variables estimation in data from the US Current Population Survey (2000–19). Parents' number of children is instrumented with the sex mix of their first two children. We find that the male wage elasticity of labour supply to the firm significantly increases with the number of children, while the female elasticity is not significantly altered. That is, we find evidence that male labour markets become more competitive with the arrival of children. Our results also show that firms have substantial monopsonistic power and, in line with the monopsony theory of the gender pay gap, that male labour markets are more competitive than female markets.     

Deep habits and the cyclical behaviour of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies

We extend the standard textbook search and matching model by introducing deep habits in consumption. This assumption generates amplification in the response of labour market variables to technology shocks by producing endogenous countercyclical mark-ups. The cyclical fluctuations of vacancies and unemployment in our model can replicate those observed in the US data, with labour market tightness being 20 times more volatile than consumption. Vacancies display a hump-shaped response to technology shocks and the numerical simulations generate an artificial Beveridge curve that is in line with the data. Our model preserves the assumption of fully flexible wages for new hires and the calibration is consistent with the estimated elasticity of unemployment to unemployment benefits. Finally, we show that in contrast to models with exogenous mark-up shocks, the deep habits model does not require an implausible variation in the elasticity of demand to match the volatility of labour market variables, and the cyclical properties of the mark-up are in line with empirical evidence.     

Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of an Equilibrium Search Model

We specify and estimate an equilibrium job search model with productivity differences across labour market segments. The model allows for two types of unemployment: frictional unemployment due to search frictions and structural unemployment due to wage floors. Wage floors exist because of high unemployment benefits or binding minimum wages. The productivity distribution is estimated semi-nonparametrically along the lines of Gallant-Nychka, using Hermite series approximation. We decompose the total unemployment rate and we examine the effects of changes in the minimum wage.     

Relative wage and unemployment changes in Poland: microeconometric evidence

We estimate changes in the Polish wage and unemployment structures between the years 1994 and 1998 in order to identify labour market characteristics associated with increasing and decreasing relative demand, as well as relative wage rigidities. The evidence shows that relative demand for workers with a low level of education decreased. Whereas relative wages for workers with basic vocational education also fell in this situation, relative wages of workers with only primary education did not, pointing to a relative wage rigidity for this group which faced an above-average unemployment risk throughout the observation period.     

Labour supply and commuting time: An empirical study

We estimate a simple labour supply model that incorporates commuting time in a utility maximizing framework. Housing prices are assumed to vary with commuting time, and the elasticity of housing prices with respect to the latter is estimated to be about 10 percent. Using this elasticity estimate the price of commuting time averaged over all individuals is $3.22 while the wage rate is $4.72; thus commuting time is implicitly valued at about two-thirds of the wage rate on average. As far as work hours are concerned, almost all individuals are on the backward bending part of their labour supply curve.     

How low can U go?

• ? Although there is growing evidence that wage growth is building in response to low and falling unemployment in the advanced economies, there is scope for unemployment rates to fall further without triggering a pay surge.
• ? For a start, current unemployment rates in comparison to past cyclical troughs overstate the tightness of labour markets. Demographic trends associated with the ageing ‘baby boomer’ bulge have pushed down the headline unemployment rate – unemployment rates among older workers are lower than those of younger cohorts. And in a historical context, Europe still has a large pool of involuntary part‐timers.
• ? In addition, rising participation rates mean that demographics are less of a constraint on employment growth than widely assumed. In both 2017 and 2018, had it not been for increased activity rates (mainly for older cohorts), unemployment would have had to fall more sharply to accommodate the same employment increase. We expect rising participation rates to continue to act as a pressure valve for the labour market.
• ? Finally, unemployment rates were generally far lower during the 1950s and 1960s than now. If wages stay low relative to productivity, as was the case during that prior era, employment growth may remain strong, with unemployment falling further. In the post‐war era, low wages were partly a function of a grand bargain in which policy‐makers provided full employment in return for low wage growth.
• ? There is evidence to suggest that many post‐crisis workers have opted for the security of their existing full‐time job and its associated benefits despite lower wage growth, rather than change job and potentially earn more; the rise of the ‘gig economy’ has led some workers to value what they already have more. Put another way, the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) has fallen. So, the role of labour market tightness in pushing wage growth higher may continue to surprise to the downside.

     

Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve

Abstract.  The wage curve is the negative relationship that links wage levels to the unemployment rate. It fits accurately with modern non-competitive labour-market models, but goes against a Phillips-curve modelling, because the latter ties wage growth to the unemployment rate. In this article, we present a comprehensive review of these non-competitive models, highlighting recent contributions that try to eliminate the possible 'gap' that exists between the concepts of the wage curve, on the one hand, and the Phillips curve, on the other.     

Modelling the process of job search

This paper is concerned with the specification and estimation of a genuinely structural but static model of individual search behaviour in which the estimated reservation wage actually satisfies the optimality condition. The identification of the parameters of interest is achieved by the a priori specification of the vacancy-wage distribution. The model is estimated using the data from the 1978–1979 D.H.S.S. Cohort Study of the Unemployed. The estimated parameters reflect, in the main, our prior views and generate a number of interesting results. In particular the elasticity of unemployment spell duration with respect to unemployment benefits is estimated to be around 0.18–0.26.     

Tighter labour markets to finally lift global wages

• Wage growth has been relatively slow since 2007 in advanced economies, but an upturn may be in sight. Slow productivity growth remains an issue but tighter labour markets make a positive response by wages to rising inflation more likely and there are signs that compositional and crisis‐related effects that dragged wage growth down are fading – though Japan may be an exception.
• Overall, our forecasts are for a moderate improvement in wage growth in the major economies in 2017–18, with the pace of growth rising by 0.5–1% per year relative to its 2016 level by 2018 – enough to keep consumer spending reasonably solid.
• Few countries have maintained their pre‐crisis pace of wage growth since 2007. In part this reflects a mixture of low inflation and weak productivity growth, but other factors have also been in play: in the US and Japan wage growth has run as much as 0.5–1% per year lower than conventional models would suggest.
• The link with productivity seems to have weakened since 2007 and Phillips curves – which relate wages to unemployment – have become flatter. A notable exception is Germany, where the labour market has behaved in a much more ‘normal’ fashion over recent years with wage growth responding to diminishing slack.
• ‘Compositional’ factors related to shifts in the structure of the workforce may have had an important influence in holding down wage growth, cutting it by as much as 2% per year in the US and 1% per year in the UK. There are some signs that the impact of these effects in the UK and US are fading, but not in Japan.
• The forecast rise in inflation over the next year as energy price base effects turn positive is a potential risk to real wages. But the decline in measures of labour market slack in the US, UK and Germany suggests wages are more likely to move up with inflation than was the case in 2010–11 when oil prices spiked and real wages fell.

     

An empirical analysis of state labor markets: has worker insecurity shifted wages in the 1990s?

Labor markets in the 1990s have tightened considerably but with a surprising lack of wage inflation. There are several explanations for this behavior, where one of the more prominent explanations is that worker insecurities have depressed wage growth. This study develops an augmented Phillips curve model to test whether there are any structural shifts in wage dynamics in the 1990s. Using state data from 1980 to 1996, the empirical results are consistent with wages becoming more cyclically responsive in the 1990s. Increased long-term unemployment and permanent job losses are associated with the depressed wages in the 1990s, supporting claims that worker insecurity has dampened wage growth.     

The Variation in Wage Rigidity by Occupation and Union Status in the Us

This study estimates wage equations with data disaggregated by occupation and union status, and it derives two measures of wage rigidity for each group of workers: the sensitivity of wages to unemployment and the speed with which wages respond to price inflation. The sensitivity of wages to an aggregate measure of unemployment was found to depend negatively on an occupation's skill level. In addition, union wages were more sensitive to unemployment than non-union wages and responded less rapidly to price inflation.     

Regional differences in small firm entry in manufacturing industries: Lower Saxony, 1979–1991 †

This paper is an empirical study of inter-regional and inter-temporal variations in entry of new firms using longitudinal data covering all manufacturing establishments in Lower Saxony between 1979 and 1991. Patterns of entry are reported for sixteen regions based on gross rates of entry (number of new firms) and entry intensities (shares of employees). An empirical model is applied to detect regional characteristics that are highly correlated with entry. Pooling of cross-section and time-series data allows for control of influences of varying macroeconomic conditions and unobserved regional characteristics that turned out to be important. Small firm entry tends to be positively related to high overall economic growth, and to be higher in regions where both the small firm employment share and the level of wealth are high while the wage rate is low. We find no evidence for a negative impact of the business tax rate or for a positive effect of regional subsidies.     

Desired and actual labour supply of unmarried men and women in the Netherlands

Desired and actual working hours of unmarried adults are analyzed. A discrete structural neoclassical model is used to explain desired hours, which depend on gross wage rates, tax and benefit rules, other income, and some background variables. The model takes account of fixed costs of working and of prediction errors in wage rates of nonworkers. Actual hours are explained from desired hours and hours restrictions. Deviations between actual and desired hours are used to identify equations for involuntary unemployment and the lack of part-time jobs. The model is estimated using cross-section data from the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel. We find larger wage elasticities of desired hours of work for women than for men. Involuntary unemployment and a lack of part-time jobs appear to be important sources of hours restrictions. Individuals with (potential) wages below the minimum wage have a significantly larger probability of involuntary unemployment than others.