管理就是决策——也谈如何提高企业决策科学化水平

决策的概念，科学决策的内容、程序所谓决策就是决定策略。在经济管理学上占有重要地位，它是一门系统科学。１９７８年诺贝尔经济学奖得主西蒙（H．A．Simmon）就说过：“管理就是决策！”。而今科学技术发展日新月异，特别是IT业的发展。一个企业的兴衰往往在旦夕之间，除科学技术的迅猛发展导致产品信息、数量、质量呈几何级数提高外，人们经过长时间的探索，终于清醒地认识到：科学决策的时代已经来临。经济学说到底实质上是一门如何分配资源的科学。一般来说，在经济管理学中把决策分为硬决策和软决策。硬决策也称数学决策，它的一般…     

电力物资供应链全过程管理运营分析

电力物资供应链全过程管理运营分析工作，旨在通过对物资供应链过程中发现的问题、物资管理的业务现状和提升点等的分析．为决策层和管理层制定相应决策支持．打造高效的物资供应链服务保障，并通过运营分析，进一步深化物资集约化工作，为提高物资供应服务效率提供决策支持。     

中西方文化差异对科学决策管理的影响

科学决策管理对于一个组织的发展具有决定性作用。对于领导者来说，决策是一门艺术和手段；对于一个组织来说．决策是其发展的推动力。正确决策是一门综合知识及专业能力很强的学问．在不同区域、国家、环境、文化，不同的人生观、价值观等所决策管理目标定位、过程以及结果都不一样。中西方文化差异很大．主要是由其各自的自然环境、社会环境、历史环境和人类环境的漫长发展而决定的，     

监督在企业管理中的作用

现代企业管理错综复杂，工作头绪万千，要想有效地实现发展目标．就必须重视企业管理中的各个环节。加强监督工作，是企业管理过程中内部控制的一项重要内容，其实质是通过对企业生产经营管理决策和执行各个环节的监督检查，及时发现企业决策和执行运行中的偏差，找出偏差产生的原因，妥善协调各种关系，正确处理各方面的矛盾．采取切实有效的措施．使企业各个环节的工作朝着既定发展目标奋进。     

影响企业统计数据质量的主要因素及应对措施

统计数据是分析社会经济的现状、运行、变化、预测其发展趋势，制定行动决策的重要依据。统计数据的质量关系着统计工作在国家宏观决策、宏观调控．或者在企业微观决策和管理中的重大作用是否能够正确地发挥。但在实际工作中，统计数据经常受到各种因素的干扰，统计数据质量难以保证．甚至是失实。统计数据丧失了其应有的使用价值，甚至还会导致领导决策失误，给社会、企业的经济发展造成巨大损失。     

管理者：走出决策中的三大陷阱

决策是每个主管最重要的工作、也最冒风险。决策中存在许多陷阱．企业主管如何避开陷阱，做出正确的决策？ 1、“沉锚”陷阱 考虑做一个决定时．我们的大脑会对得到的第一个信息给予特别的重视。第一印象或数据就像沉人海底的锚一样，把我们的思维固定在了某一处．     

TCL模拟董事会：否决与创维长虹康佳合资案

“模拟董事会”是本刊新创的一个栏目。在这个栏目中，本刊邀请各方面的专家及实务人士充当模拟董事，构成一个虚拟董事会．对一些我们认为非常重要的战略问题进行虚拟的董事会决策。这些战略决策可能是在中国公司中已经发生的．也可能是我们认为可能会发生的。这样做，并非要越俎代庖．而是想从外部观察者的角度．为中国公司的战略决策提供鉴镜。本刊声明，“模拟董事会”所做出的任何决策都与所涉及公司的真实决策无关。     

基于ANP的装备修理成本影响因素研究（续）

3．超级决策软件的模型解析计算 ANP网络结构模型解析计算的核心工作是求解超级矩阵。这是一项十分复杂的计算工作，手工运算几乎不现实，实际应用中可利用软件辅助计算，目前比较成熟的是Rozann W．Saaty和William J．Adams在2003年推出的超级决策（Super Decision，简称SD）软件。SD软件成功地实现了ANP计算的程序化，为ANP的实用推广奠定了坚实基础。     

知识溢出效应与企业集聚定位决策

知识溢出在强化企业间知识流动和创新能力的同时，也增加了知识损失的风险．其正负效应的发挥左右着企业特别是高新技术企业的集聚定位决策。借助Klaus的模型．在分析知识溢出影响因素的基础上，发现技术接近性与空间局限性一起促进了企业间知识溢出效果：分析了知识溢出正负效应对企业集聚定位决策的影响，从知识溢出联合创新效应、知识溢出时滞和企业成本敏感性三方面考察对企业集聚定位决策的影响，并针对我国高新技术产业园区发展提出了相应的对策建议。     

浅淡成本和费用管理的基础工作

成本管理的基础工作做的不够，成本和费用得不到有救的控制．成本预算、成本决策缺乏真实的基础数据．枕套导致企业管理层决策不当或错误．影响企业的发展与竞争力。而扎实的成本和费用管理基础工作，为公司即时准确的商品成本测算，以适应复杂多变的市场提供了核算基础。因此，加强成本管理，企业应该首先建立健全成本和费用的基础管理工作。本作结分安阳钢铁集团公司的实践经验，对成本和费用管理的基础工作谈论了自已的一些看法。     

确定建设工程施工投票最终报价的技巧

建设工程施工投标最终报价是投标单位以标书编制的预算坐（标价）为基础，综合考虑各种因素后对预算标价进一步修订的报价，对是否中标将产生直接影响。章介绍了承包商选择工程标段位置和编制投标书的方法，论述了如何根据标工程报价的不同类型，确定工程施工投标最终报价的技巧。     

招投标实施环境对其投资控制效率的影响探析

招投标对投资控制具有积极的作用。但是，当业主消极实施招标工作时，其投资控制作用减弱。当招标投标受权力寻租活动影响时，招投标形式程造价失控起到掩盖作用。对此，行之有效的反腐措施是增加企业权力部门的全面透明度。     

Clinging to Slim Chances: The Dynamics of Anticipating Regret When Developing New Products

This paper focuses on the effects of anticipated regret during large‐scale investment projects—namely new product development. Anticipated regret means worrying about the future, and decision‐makers experience it prior to both making a decision and knowing the outcome of that decision. It is forward‐looking while actual regret is backward‐looking. Decision‐makers must make project continuation/termination decisions with conflicting pressures. If they continue it, they might receive disconfirming information in the future and therefore regret their decision. If they stop it, they also might regret that decision later, too, if they subsequently conclude it was an error to do so. We term these conflicting pressures anticipated “keep” and “drop” regret, respectively. In the main study, nearly 300 individuals completed a decision‐making exercise in which a failing new product development project was evaluated, and various factors were measured, including both types of anticipated regret at multiple points in the project. The results show that decision‐makers anticipate regret when making project continuation decisions, and anticipated keep and drop regret exert pressures that differ in direction and magnitude. Most interestingly, anticipated drop regret does not diminish as the failing project progresses whereas anticipated keep regret increases as more negative information is received over the course of the project. A second, smaller study was conducted using a different population, and the results of the main study were replicated in this supplemental study, thereby adding confidence in these findings.     

项目后评估方法与项目后评估制度

根据国务院关于投资体制的决定,论述了建立项目后评价制度的必要性;阐述项目后评价的理论与方法;电力项目投资大、周期长、不确定因素多、风险大,不仅要加强项目的前评价,而且要重视项目的后评价。     

基于灰色关联度的多目标电力建设工程投资决策研究

项目投资决策系统是一个典型的灰色系统,它具有灰色系统信息部分不确定性的特点。将灰色系统理论与层次分析法（AHP）进行有机地结合,用加权灰色关联度分析方法建立模型并计算判断矩阵,为决策者提供一种有效的决策方法。应用灰色关联分析方法处理电力建设项目投资决策问题,考虑不同因素的重要程度,运用AHP方法对其进行赋权,根据得到的加权灰色关联度值的大小对备选方案进行优选,使电力建设项目投资方案决策过程更具有科学性。     

AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR ENGINEERING EDUCATION

High technology investments are a rapidly growing segment of business capital expenditures. The questionnaire responses presented in this paper provide information on the capital investment decision processes currently being used for high technology projects. Respondents indicate that the capital evaluation techniques used to justify high technology investments are similar to those used for other types of capital projects and that high-tech projects must meet normal requirements for project acceptability. Respondents specified that a wide variety of factors, some quantified and some not quantified (such as quality control and reduced lead time), are included in their decision process. While there is general satisfaction with the procedures used for project justification, the relative newness of these investments suggests that there is a need to gather more detailed information about this type of capital decision.     

建筑工程施工投标报价策略与技巧

工程施工招标投标是建筑市场竞争的摹本方式，价的分析与评估，如何使用投标报价的策略技巧等问题，投标竞争中获胜得到最关键的问题。如何做出具有竞争力的投标报价如何进行投标报是建筑施工企业能否在激烈的国内国际工程施工。     

Exploring Portfolio Decision‐Making Processes*

Portfolio management is the set of activities that allows a firm to select, develop, and commercialize a pipeline of new products aligned with the firm's strategy that will enable it to continue to grow profitably over the long term. To appropriately manage the firm's new product portfolio, decisions must be made about which projects to fund, to what levels, at what point in time. Previous research has investigated portfolio management decisions as individually discrete decisions. Significant streams of research have investigated both project selection and project termination decisions. This research project shows, however, that portfolio decision making may be better understood if it is considered as an integrated system of processes that considers these decisions simultaneously, along with other decisions such as those to continue a project with reduced funding. Using in‐depth data from four diverse case studies, we use a grounded theory approach to develop a general model of how firms make new product portfolio decisions. According to the findings from these cases, effective portfolio decision‐making processes produce a portfolio mindset, focus effort on the right projects, and allow agile decision making across the portfolio's set of projects. Effective portfolio decision making is the result of the interaction between three types of decision‐making processes that managers use in making decisions: evidence‐, power‐, and opinion‐based. Being able to use each of these types of processes to make decisions depends upon having the data inputs that they require. Three domain‐based decision input‐generating processes (i.e., cross‐functional collaboration, practices of critical thinking, and practices of market immersion) are associated with making evidence‐based portfolio decisions. In addition, organizational politics produces the inputs that are associated with power‐based portfolio decision making, while managerial intuition is associated with opinion‐based portfolio decision making. Firm cultural factors, including trust, collective ambition, and leadership style, are associated with how these evidence‐, power‐ and opinion‐based processes are combined into an overall portfolio decision making process, and whether the firm's processes are more rational and objectively made, or more politically and intuitively made. The article presents propositions for how the decision‐making processes interact in their associations with decision‐making effectiveness.     

Making real options work for practitioners: a generic model for valuing R&D projects

We propose a generic valuation framework for the appraisal of R&D projects based on real option theory. The added value of this approach is the presentation of a model that was implemented in a manner that allows corporate decision makers to use real options in an intuitive and standardized way. The project valuation procedure is separated into three main phases: project modeling, data and input collection, and result generation and analysis. The project model represents the structure of the real world R&D project with its investments, expected results, and decisions that need to be taken conditionally on the outcomes of research activities. The project model is represented in the form of a decision tree, where different research results or taken decisions lead to new branches. In this way, every possible situation the project can pass through can be represented. Uncertainties are separated into market uncertainties (e.g., market prices) and project specific, private uncertainties (e.g. uncertainty of research results). For both uncertainties, event trees are constructed which are then combined and merged with the above mentioned decision tree in order to represent the value evolution of the R&D project under given decisions and uncertainties. For every possible state of the project the real option value is calculated. By creating multidimensional trees, a multitude of decision steps and various kinds of real options (e.g., continue, expansion, switch, abandonment) can be modeled. The calculation complexity for the decision trees is given. From the tree structure we can calculate the real option value of starting an R&D project, i.e., the value of undertaking the first investment and thus acquiring the subsequent decision opportunities given by the completion of the first research effort. Furthermore, the optimal exercise strategy is derived from the decision tree. The exercise strategy gives the manager the possibility to have an a priori overview of where an R&D project may lead to, which decisions need to be taken in which circumstances, and when the project needs to be stopped in order not to generate losses. In an in‐depth case study we use an illustrative R&D project to set up and discuss the three phases of project modeling in the real options framework: building the multidimensional decision tree, input generation, and calculation of the real option value as well as the optimal strategy for the R&D project.     

多因素排序法在工业建设项目选址中的应用

工业建设项目的选址工作,应综合考虑各种社会政治因素、经济因素和环境因素等影响,选择各方案差异较大的经济因素作为重点分析对象,提出多因素排序法。该方法将层次分析法（AHP）与空间统计学的距离综合评价法相结合,利用层次分析法给出各因素的权重,用距离综合评价法对决策对象的相对接近度进行排序,进而做出最优决策。利用该方法对一个电厂项目的可选地区优劣程度进行排序,结果客观有效。