Modeling Dependencies in Brand Choice Outcomes Across Complementary Categories

We build an econometric model of a household's contemporaneous brand choice outcomes in complementary product categories. This model explicitly captures cross-category dependencies in brand choice outcomes of a household. Such dependencies have not been modeled in existing multi-category demand models.Our model accommodates cross-category dependencies that arise on account of three component effects: (1) complementarity due to the additional utility that a household derives from the joint purchase of brands in complementary categories, (2) marketing spillovers due to the effects of brands’ prices in one category affecting the households’ latent utilities for brands in the complementary category, (3) unobserved dependencies due to correlations in households’ latent utilities for brands across categories.We estimate our proposed multi-category brand choice model using scanner panel data on cake mix and frosting categories. We find that complementarity accounts for the vast majority of the estimated cross-category effects in demand. We also find that as much as 55 percent of the total retail profit impact of price promotions arise on account of brand-level (focus of our study), as opposed to category-level (focus of previous studies), dependencies in household demand. Finally, we propose an easily interpretable visual representation – Largess and Free-Ride Plot – of cross-category price elasticities that summarizes the differential abilities of brands to influence, or be influenced by, brands in the complementary category.     

Chain-wide and store-level analysis for cross-category management

When planning and implementing their price-promotions strategy, retail chain managers face the typical dilemma of “thinking globally, but acting locally.” In other words, they must plan their strategy, keeping in mind the global chain-level impact of their promotions, to deliver on the commitments made to manufacturers. At the same time, managers need to make sure that the implementation of such strategy takes into account the fact that each store caters to a different market with different needs and responses to marketing programs. Moreover, the retail chain manager must consider not only how the promotion of a brand affects competing brands and total category sales, but also how it could affect sales in other categories.Our proposed model addresses these two important aspects of chain-wide and store-level cross-category analysis. First, our proposed factor-regression model takes store differences and longitudinal market shifts into account, thereby providing the retail chain manager with unbiased global, chain-level estimates. It also provides stable local estimates of cross-category promotion effects at the store level. Second, while allowing this flexibility, our proposed model is parsimonious enough over existing alternatives, making it particularly useful for chain-wide and store-level cross-category analysis.We apply the proposed model to store-level data from one retail chain, comparing it with several competing approaches, and demonstrate that it provides the best balance between flexibility and parsimony. Most importantly, we show that the proposed model provides useful insights regarding cross-category effects at the chain-level, for individual stores, and their patterns across stores.     

Impact of sales Promotion's benefits on perceived value: Does product category moderate the results?

The purpose behind the development of this research article is to assess the impact of sales promotions benefits on consumer perceived value and examine the moderating effect of product categories on the relation between sales promotions, their benefits, and consumer perceived value. The study used a sample of 400 consumers from India and ‘Structure Equation Modelling’ technique is applied to evaluate the research assumption. Finally, the moderating effect of the product category is evaluated by utilizing ‘Multi-Group Analysis' technique. Research findings reveal that the product category moderates the consumer's perceived value for hedonic and utilitarian benefits of sales promotion tools. It is found that utilitarian benefits of sales promotion have more impact on consumer perceived value in the context of personal care product while hedonic benefits are having more impact on consumer perceived value in the context of food products. A sales promotion plan can be made more effective when it is hedonic benefit oriented in the case of food products and utilitarian benefit oriented in the case of personal care products. The findings of this research can be useful for marketers to develop an effective sales promotion strategy considering the category wise differential impact of sales promotions benefits.     

“One-deal-fits-all?” On Category Sales Promotion Effectiveness in Smaller versus Larger Supermarkets

Even within a store chain and format, supermarket outlets often exhibit substantial differences in selling surface. For chain managers, this raises the issue of correctly anticipating the promotion lift, and of profitably managing promotion activities, across these outlets. In this paper, we conceptualize why and how store size influences the category sales effectiveness of four promotional indicators (depth of the promotional discount, display support, feature support, and whether the promotion is quantity-based). We then estimate the net moderating effect on four product categories for 103 store outlets belonging to four chains. For each of the promotion instruments, we find the percentage sales increases to be lower in large stores. For instance, whereas a 10% point increase in feature activity enhances category sales by about 1.64% in a 700 m² store, this figure drops to only 1.03% in a 1300 m² store – a 59% reduction. This moderating effect is especially pronounced for discount depth, the relative sales lift from a typical price cut being about 78% lower in the larger-sized outlet. However, since large outlets also have larger base sales, the picture changes when we consider absolute sales effects. The net outcome is that deeper discounts or quantity-based promotions do not systematically generate larger or smaller absolute sales bumps in large stores, whereas for in-store displays and features, we obtain a clear positive (be it less than proportional) link between store size and absolute category sales lift. When it comes to margin implications, we show that large stores gain higher profit from price cuts than small outlets only as long as the retailer keeps part of the manufacturer discount to himself. Managers can use these insights to improve their promotional forecasts across outlets, as well as to tailor their mix of instruments to store selling surface.     

Drivers of the synergy between price cuts and store flyer advertising at supermarkets and discounters

Despite retailers’ intense use of both price cuts and store flyer advertising, it is still unclear whether and when it is beneficial for retailers to combine the two promotion tools at the same time as opposed to using them separately. We systematically investigate synergies between price cuts and store flyers for a broad set of 488 brands from 44 consumer packaged goods categories across six leading German retailers. We find that a clear majority of the brands benefit from positive synergies and hence, combining price cuts and store flyer advertising is recommended, especially at supermarkets. This synergy can be strong. For instance, a 15 % price cut without store flyer support at a supermarket, on average, increases sales by 11 %, and medium spending on store flyers for the brand at its regular (non-promoted) price results in a sales lift of 8 %. The combined use of both tools, however, increases sales by 52 %, much more than the sum of their separate effects (11 % + 8 % = 19 %). Yet, there is also substantial variance in the synergy, which we explain with retailer format (supermarkets versus discounters) as well as various brand and category characteristics. Our findings have important implications for the coordination of promotion activities by retailers.     

Evaluating the impact of VAT-free promotion: the role of loyalty program membership and category characteristics

This study examines the impact of value-added tax (VAT)–free promotions on sales performance. VAT-free promotions are a recently adopted form of price promotions where consumers are exempted from paying the VAT amount across almost all products in the assortment during a limited number of days. They are typically organized once per year and surrounded by a large amount of media attention from the involved retailer. To test the effects of this promotion on store and category sales, and investigate the differences between loyalty program (LP) members and non-LP members, the authors use scanner data from a Dutch durable goods retailer across a range of categories. The results show that VAT-free promotions positively impact store performance. Moreover, the findings indicate that more non-LP members are attracted to the store and that they increase the amount they spend in the store. While LP members also spend more in the store, this increase in shopping basket size does not compensate for the significant drop in the number of LP members that visit the store, leading to an overall decrease in sales coming from LP members during VAT-free days. We furthermore find that the positive effect of VAT-free promotions for non-LP members (rather than LP members) generalizes across all investigated categories. Our results provide key insights for retailers and direct marketers with regard to the effectiveness of VAT-free promotions in order to strategically segment the customer base.

     

Are Brand Promotions Just a Zero-Sum Game – or Can They Increase the Size of the Pie?

Packaged goods companies now "spend" more on promotions – special offers, in-store displays and the like – than on media advertising. Until recently, it was generally believed that while promotions benefit individual brands, they usually do not result in an increase in overall category sales. Recent research, however, suggests that promotions can increase total category sales in a wide range of circumstances. This article starts by discussing the relationship between brand promotion and category sales, outlines research to date, and then describes the author's own most recent research on this topic. It concludes by pointing to implications for managers.     

The Effectiveness of Sales Promotion Tools among Indian Consumers: An Empirical Study

Marketers use sales promotions to boost sales. Sales promotion tools vary in their effectiveness to elicit different sales responses. Companies have a specific goal when they choose to use any promotional tool. Many researchers believe that sales promotions are zero sum game. Unlike in the West, in India brand loyalists outnumber price buyers by 200%. This paper investigates the effectiveness of select sales promotional tools in generating different buying behaviors. The study reveals that sales promotions, in India, do not help in category expansion. They are effective measures for inducing brand switching, stock piling, and purchase acceleration.     

Cross-category sales promotion effects

We introduce a multivariate binomial logit model measuring cross-category dependence and sales promotion effects of a retail assortment. This model requires as data both the market baskets of individual shoppers and the categories currently promoted in a retail outlet. A special section describes the stepwise procedure used to estimate parameters of this model. Its application is demonstrated analyzing 6147 purchases that were acquired in a medium-sized supermarket. We finally discuss the managerial relevance of this model for sales promotion decisions of retail firms.     

Brand-Pack Size Cannibalization Arising from Temporary Price Promotions

This study investigates how price promotions for one pack-size of a brand steal sales from the other pack-sizes of the same brand. To do so, the study examines twelve grocery product categories (seven US, three UK, two Australian). The analysis finds heavy cross-pack cannibalization. On average, 22 percent of the sales uplift for a promoted brand-pack size comes from other pack sizes of the same brand. Cross-pack cannibalization most typically occurs in the week of the promotion, but also transfers future week's sales away from the non-promoted pack size in 31 percent of cases. The study finds higher cannibalization is associated with packs that sell for a higher dollar value than others sold under the same brand; whereas higher price-per-weight, a packaging difference, and the item having a larger relative share of sales in the brand portfolio, are linked to lower cannibalization. Also examined is the impact of pack-size cannibalization on promotion profitability for retailer PLs. That analysis finds PL price promotions have generally negative impacts on PL profits, and that pack-size cannibalization exacerbates this negative outcome. The results suggest both retailers and manufacturers should carefully consider pack-size cannibalization when evaluating the outcome of temporary price promotions. The study also provides some evidence-based recommendations from which managers can attempt to minimize such cannibalization.     

The perception of discount sales promotions – A utilitarian and hedonic perspective

This paper explores the effects of utilitarian and hedonic benefits perceptions of discount sales promotions on consumer purchase decisions (attitude and behavioral intention). A closed-ended survey, as well as a partial least squares structural equation modeling of consumers sampling who had used discount sales promotions in their recent purchases, was utilized in this study. The findings suggest that utilitarian benefits perceptions derived from price-quality perception and hedonic benefits perceptions derived from smart shopper self-perception of using discount sales promotions positively affect consumer purchase decisions. Both utilitarian and hedonic benefits perceptions of discount sales promotions can henceforth be used to produce the desired effects on purchase decisions. Hence, this paper sheds light on the effects of utilitarian and hedonic benefits perception of discount sales promotions on purchase decisions. Though the findings are limited to discount sales promotions alone and two types of purchase decisions outcomes (attitude and behavioral intentions), this paper identified multiple avenues to extend its findings. This encourages further exploration of such promotion topics, particularly on the various perceptions of discount sales promotions as well as other sales promotion techniques among marketing academics and practitioners.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Promotional Discounts on Store Performance

The received wisdom, reflected in popular marketing textbooks, is that featuring deeply discounted items will generate additional store traffic for retailers that in turn will lead to increased sales and profits. However, there is surprisingly little systematic evidence about the impact of these deep discounts on aggregate store traffic, sales, and profits. In this paper, we study the effects of promotional discounts and their characteristics on various store performance metrics employing a store level dataset pooled over 55 weeks and 24 stores. Many findings of our study lend credence to the continued popularity of such promotions by retailers. We find that feature promotions build store traffic, especially when the categories being featured are high penetration, high frequency. Also, promotions of branded items are found to be more effective than promotions of unbranded items. Discounting on more items in a category leads to lower store margins suggesting that the cost of discounting a large proportion of items in a category may not be justified by the profits generated by the sale. Using the coefficients from our model estimates, various counterfactuals provide insights into strategic change in level of discounts across categories. We discuss several implications of our findings for retailers.     

The Effect of Price Promotions on Repeat Purchase Behavior

Abstract

While there is general agreement that price promotions generally have an immediate positive impact on the sales of consumer nondurables, there is little agreement about their repeat-purchasing effects. Promotion usage effects may exist in which brand repurchase rates are negatively affected by the fact that a promotion was used to make a purchase.

Using scanner data, this study examines the effect of price promotions on brand repurchase rates in four product categories. Findings indicate that repurchase rates are generally higher after non-deal purchases, however, this seems largely attributable to differences in household pre-purchase probabilities.     

The long‐term effects of sales promotions on brand attitude across monetary and non‐monetary promotions

This study compares the influence of sales promotions on brand attitude across promotion types over time. An experiment is conducted with 154 subjects, who are exposed to test materials for 12 weeks. Evidence shows that the long‐term effects of sales promotions on brand attitude vary across deal types. Non‐monetary promotions seem to work better in eliciting consumers' favorable brand attitude than monetary promotions over time. However, such effects are moderated by consumers' deal proneness. Although monetary promotions may induce more negative effects than non‐monetary promotions, these effects are weaker for high deal‐prone consumers than for low deal‐prone consumers. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Do vendors benefit from promotions in a multi-vendor loyalty program?

The growing trend of networking in recent years has led to an increase in number of loyalty program partnerships, most notably multi-vendor loyalty programs (MVLP). In an MVLP (as in other types of LPs), cardholders frequently receive promotional mailings intended to increase sales at the participating vendors. This study examines individual vendor and joint (multiple vendors) promotions on the sales performance of five main vendors within an MVLP. Findings of the study indicate low responsiveness of cardholders to LP-induced promotions. The responsiveness may be improved if multiple communication channels are used jointly to present an individual-vendor promotion. Moreover, this is one of the first empirical studies to investigate potential networking benefits of coalitions in an MVLP. Empirical evidence of coalition benefits of promotions is lacking, because we find neither stronger effects for joint-relative to individual promotions nor significant spillover effects of promotions across vendors (i.e., cross-vendor effects). The current study offers potential explanations for these findings.     

Understanding the Characteristics of Price Elasticities for Frequently Purchased Packaged Goods

This study examines category and brand level factors of packaged goods to determine which ones are related to brand price elasticities. A new nonparametric method of elasticity calculation is presented that is suited to situations where detailed feature and display information is not available. To obtain results that lead to strong and reliable generalisations, we examine 26 categories and 110 brands using store level weekly scanner data. We also synthesise our results with four previous studies that have looked at determinants of price elasticities. Three factors consistently emerge as important drivers of elasticity. They are, competitive intensity in the category, whether or not the product is storable and the brand market share. A further, less certain, factor is the frequency of promotion activity, with categories and brands having more frequent promotions exhibiting lower sales increases when one or more of the brands price promotes.     

A Multiple-discrete/Continuous Model of Price Promotion

Understanding the effect of temporary price reductions, or price promotions, on sales of consumer packaged goods is an area of ongoing interest, both in academia and in practice. Price promotions, however, are becoming an increasingly important method of managing consumer demand for fresh produce items. Modeling the impact of price promotions must take into account the differentiated nature of fresh produce and the fact that consumers tend to purchase multiple items of only a few of the products available to them. Neither a continuous nor a discrete model of demand is appropriate. In this paper, we apply a multiple-discrete/continuous model of fresh produce demand to study the impact of price promotion on retail apple sales. Our findings show that the brand switching/category incidence effect of promotion is closer to 65/35 than the more usual 80/20 rule (80 percent of the effect is brand switching and 20 percent purchase incidence) when the nature of the decision is appropriately taken into consideration.     

The effect of exclusive distribution on the sales of ready-made meals in online retail

This study examines the impact of exclusive distribution on sales for online retailers and the moderating effects of product assortment (width and depth) and within-category competitive intensity on this relationship. This study used panel data for 3285 ready-made meal products which are newly introduced from August 2018 to August 2021 at a leading online grocery retailer in Korea. The random-effects panel regression was applied to test the proposed model. The results show that exclusive distribution increases sales, and this effect is intensified with greater product depth and greater within-category competitive intensity. These findings provide useful implications for retailers to increase their likelihood of success when adopting an exclusive distribution strategy. This study also contributes to expanding the scope of the literature on the effect of exclusive distribution on sales in the context of online retail.     

Consumers' perceptions of promotional framing of price

This article focuses on consumer perceptions of transaction value when presented with deals that are equivalent on a unit‐cost basis but worded differently. Through an experimental design setting, it examines the effect of three such frames: one, stated in terms of a straight price promotion (“50% off”), the second, as an extra‐product or volume promotion (“buy one, get one free”), and a third as a “mixed” promotion (“buy two, get 50% off”). Four typical supermarket categories are considered which permit the investigation of the effect of two category‐based moderating factors: stock‐up characteristic and price level. Results show that the nature of framing appears to differentially affect consumer perceptions of value from “equivalent” deals. Also, perceptions of deal value from price versus extra‐product promotions are moderated by the stock‐up characteristic of the category. However, consumers' internal reference prices remain unaffected across one‐time price and extra‐product promotions. These findings provide some understanding of the role of deal framing on consumers' responses, and offer implications for industry practitioners interested in communicating the maximum value in their deals. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.