Unidimensional median voter results in probabilistic voting models

This paper studies the policy outcomes that can be expected to occur when candidates are uncertain about voter behavior. Its analysis begins with an example that illustrates how the ‘Comaner–Hinich effect’ (i.e., the possibility of non-median outcomes) can occur under such circumstances. This example is then modified in ways which restore a median outcome. After this is done, the method of restoration is generalized to obtain a unidimensional median voter result for probabilistic voting models.     

Spatially induced disparities in users' and non-users' WTP for water quality improvements—Testing the effect of multiple substitutes and distance decay

Costs and benefits of water restoration projects are not necessarily evenly spread out over the entire area affected by the project. The physical distribution of benefits is, therefore, an important parameter when conducting economic analyses of water restoration projects. Two particularly relevant spatial issues relate to 1) the location of the population relative to the location of the waterbody, and 2) the availability and characteristics of substitute water bodies.Based on a contingent valuation (CV) study of the demand for restoring Odense River in Denmark a spatial demand model which accounts for travel time both to the river subject for valuation and to potential substitute sites is estimated. It is concluded that the spatial distribution of benefits is unlikely to be homogeneously determined by a one-dimensional spatial model. Moreover, the results suggest that the effect of spatial issues on preferences varies between users and non-users. For non-users the spatial impacts from potential substitutes significantly reduce demand for improvements in Odense River. This indicates that focus on estimation of distance decay effects may be an important tool in relation to ensuring proper geographical delimitation of the population in a given context.     

COMMUNITY HOMOGENEITY AND REVEALED PREFERENCES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS

This paper examines the links between community homogeneity and the demand for environmental quality. Using data from California, this paper shows that communities that are more homogeneous in terms of race and educational attainment are more likely to support the public provision of environmental goods, after controlling for political ideology, voter turnout, and the distribution of benefits and costs across communities. The models also reveal nonmonotonic relationships between racial and social groups and support for the public provision of environmental amenities. Support for environmental initiatives in a community typically increases at an increasing rate the greater the concentration of Whites. On the other hand, support generally increases at a decreasing rate the greater the share of African Americans and Asians in the population. Results for a proposal that would have imposed a tax on oil extraction to fund alternative energy projects suggest a different pattern of nonlinear associations. (JEL D72, H42, Q51, Q58)     

Modeling Spatial Patchiness and Hot Spots in Stated Preference Willingness to Pay

Stated preference analyses often impose strong assumptions regarding spatial welfare distributions that can influence the validity of welfare analysis and aggregation. These include spatial homogeneity and continuous distance decay. Global assumptions such as these are increasingly questioned by non-economics disciplines in favor of approaches that allow for local patchiness. Drawing from this literature, this article proposes methods to identify and evaluate hot spots in stated preference welfare estimates using local indicators of spatial association. Methods are illustrated using geocoded choice experiment data addressing river restoration. Results suggest the presence of statistically significant, non-continuous patterns overlooked by current approaches.     

A choice experiment on fuel taxation and earmarking in Norway

Pigouvian taxes are efficient — but unpopular among voters — and hence often politically infeasible. Earmarking of revenues has been widely reported to increase public support for taxes, but earmarking is generally not the most efficient use of the revenues. This trade-off between efficiency and political feasibility is the motivation for our primary research objective: to quantify the effect of earmarking on support for fuel tax rises. Our secondary research objective is to investigate why earmarking increases support. Using data from a representative sample of the Norwegian voter population (N = 1147), we estimate models of voter preferences for fuel taxes using logistic regression models. Our results show that, in the absence of earmarking, the majority of voters would like to reduce fuel taxes, but earmarking the revenues for environmental measures has a substantial effect on voter support for fuel tax increases, garnering a majority for increases of up to 15% above present levels. Further analysis indicates that a prime reason why earmarking for environmental measures is popular is that it increases the perceived environmental effectiveness of the tax, and hence its legitimacy as an environmental rather than a fiscal policy instrument.     

Unsettling aspects of voting theory

Summary. Voting procedures are known to be plagued with a variety of difficulties such as strategic voting, or where a voter is rewarded with a better election outcome by not voting, or where a winning candidate can lose by receiving more support. Once we know that these problems can occur, the next objective should be to completely understand how, why, and where they arise. Namely, for each election procedure, the new goal is to determine when such problems can occur, all voter types who can cause these difficulties, and the actions they must take. This paper develops an easily used approach to handle all of these issues for standard voting methods. New intuitive explanations for these various oddities follow from this approach. Received: August 14, 2002 ; revised version: September 4, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"My thanks to Richard Barrett and, in particular, to Hannu Nurmi for corrections, several useful comments, and suggestions they made about earlier versions. Also, my thanks to a referee for calling some excellent references to my attention. An earlier draft was presented at the 2002 Public Choice Society meeting. This research was supported by an NSF grant.     

The Politics of Foreign Aid: A Median Voter Perspective

The paper presents a model where the median voter in the donor country determines the support of foreign aid. It is first established that an individual in the donor country is affected by the direct benefits (due to altruism) and costs (due to taxes) of giving aid, and by the indirect benefits or costs of a change in the terms of trade. Then it is shown that the latter effect works through changing both the donor country's average income and its distribution of income. Given the stylized facts of a capital-abundant donor country and relatively capital-poor median voter, it is shown how redistribution-of-income effects soften the impact of terms-of-trade changes on the political support for foreign aid.     

Recreation demand estimation and valuation in spatially connected systems

Recreation demand models frequently are used to explain outdoor recreation behavior and to estimate willingness to pay for changes in environmental quality at recreation sites. Among the most commonly used recreation demand models are site choice models based on the multinomial logit framework, which account for the spatial relationships between each recreator's home and multiple alternative destinations thereby capturing the substitution possibilities among recreation sites. However, standard applications of this framework typically do not account for the possibility of spatial connections among the sites via movements of the target species, such as fish in connected water bodies in recreational angling applications or terrestrial species in hunting or wildlife viewing applications. In this paper we examine aspects of environmental valuation and natural resource dynamics that generally are addressed separately. Specifically, we show that in such spatially connected systems, a “reduced form” application of the standard site choice modeling approach, using proxy measures of environmental quality rather than direct measures of species abundances, can produce biased estimates of willingness to pay for environmental improvements. Furthermore, we show that under some conditions poorly targeted environmental improvements in spatially connected systems can lead to welfare decreases. In such systems a structural model of recreator site choices and species sorting behavior and population dynamics may be required to fully account for the spatial linkages among sites and the feedback effects between recreators and the target species.     

Price mimicking under cost-of-service regulation: the Swedish water sector

This study provides an empirical test of price mimicking among publicly owned water utilities. Using a fixed effects spatial Durbin model with data from Swedish municipalities during 2002–2012, I estimate the elasticity of the own relative to neighbors’ average price to 0.14. This behavior can be explained in terms of an informal yardstick competition: when consumers use neighboring municipalities’ prices as benchmarks for costs or as behaviorally based reference prices, policy makers will face the risk of consumer complaints and reduced voter support if deviating too much from neighboring municipalities’ prices. Further, I find some evidence that price mimicking is more pronounced in municipalities where voter support for the ruling coalition is weak.     

城市河堤的多目标弹性景观修复途径 ——以四川省富顺沱江为例

城市河堤工程在发挥防洪功能的同时，往往造成滨 河生态环境破坏、自然服务功能和空间活力丧失等多种问题。 基于弹性防洪理念，这些单一功能的城市河堤在防洪效能、生 态服务、环境品质和公共活力等方面具有巨大的提升潜力， 已经成为现代城市更新的重点区域。城市河堤的多目标弹性景 观修复可以运用软化、退让和复合3种主要策略，以实现防洪 与景观的平衡。以四川省富顺沱江项目为例，根据现状情况、 问题和修复目标，将项目中已建和规划河堤工程划分为4种形 式，综合应用景观修复策略，对不同类型河堤提出相应的改造 途径。最后，总结景观修复项目实施中需要解决的关键问题， 以期提出适合中国城市河堤工程的弹性景观修复途径。     

Wetland restoration,collective action and the role of water management institutions

Over the past 50 years, large areas of agricultural land have been drained and put into intensive agricultural production. Increasing attention is now being paid to the issue of restoring wetland areas and promoting environmental benefits. Collective action is important for wetland restoration, both because of the physical interactions among landholders and because of the cost saving and enhanced environmental benefit that can be achieved at a larger scale. Policy needs to be geared towards facilitating co-operation among farmers if environmental schemes are to be effective in enabling wetland restoration. Internal Drainage Boards have been primarily involved with securing of land drainage for local landholders. They now have a formal responsibility to further nature conservation but could take a more proactive role in promoting wetland restoration. They have good information on local water management options and are well placed to co-ordinate actions for restoration. Agri-environment policy could be redirected in order to promote collective action for wetland restoration.     

WATER BANKING AND RESTORATION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES HABITAT: AN APPLICATION TO THE SNAKE RIVER

Most river basins have experienced development of water projects to promote flood control, recreation, and hydropower and agricultural production. Though the projects helped establish stable economies, there have been adverse impacts to the natural environment and wildlife that reside in these river basins. One of the key policy tools for habitat restoration is management of instream flows. Alternative water banking policies for restoring habitat are compared using a spatial optimization model to identify which policies work best to augment instream flows for habitat restoration. Results indicate that policy goals dictate what type of water bank is preferred.     

Battleground states and voter participation in US presidential elections: an empirical test

The winner-take-all method of allocating Electoral College votes (in 48 of the 50 states) in US presidential elections has promoted interesting behaviours by politicians and states that are evident throughout US (economic) history. This analysis explores the impact that being a ‘battleground state’ in presidential elections has on future voter participation rates. After quantifying the degree to which each state is a battleground state, the empirical analysis proffers what it refers to as the ‘battleground voting hypothesis’, which argues that the greater the degree to which a given state is a battleground state, the greater the expected benefits from voting in that state and hence the greater the voter turnout in that state. The empirical results suggest that the top-to-bottom ‘battleground state effect’ generated an average of 7.8 additional percentage points in voter participation in presidential elections over the period 1964–2008 for those states at the top of the scale.     

Explaining the appearance and success of open space referenda

Many communities in the United States have begun enacting policies to preserve open space, often through local voter referenda. New Jersey sponsors such municipal action through the Green Acres Program by providing funding and low interest loans to towns that choose to increase property taxes and spend the money raised on open space preservation for the purposes of conservation and/or recreation. This paper endeavors to understand which factors contribute to the appearance and success of these measures. Although previous literature has examined this issue, this is the first study to account for spatial dependence/spatial autocorrelation and to explore dynamic issues through survival analysis. The traditional two stage model from the literature is extended by incorporating a Bayesian spatial probit for the first stage and a maximum-likelihood spatial error model in the second stage. A Cox-proportional hazard model is used to examine the timing of referenda appearance. Spatial dependence is found in the second stage of the analysis, indicating that future studies should account for its influence. There is no strong evidence for spatial dependence or correlation in the first stage. The survival model is found to be a useful complement to the traditional probit analysis of the first stage.     

The voter initiative and the power of the governor: evidence from campaign expenditures

Although a great deal of research examines the impact of the voter initiative process on the state legislature, the consequences for the state executive branch have been largely ignored. The voter initiative process provides the governor with a method to circumvent the legislature, which may increase the power of the governor in theory. However, it also provides citizens with a means to bypass the traditional lawmaking process and avoid the governor’s veto. This may reduce the power of the governor and lead to policies farther from the preferences of the governor. This study examines the impact of the voter initiative process on the power of the state governor by estimating total election cycle spending. Campaign expenditures are expected to reflect any sustained gain or loss in power due to the availability of the voter initiative process. The results indicate that gubernatorial campaign expenditures are significantly lower in states in which the voter initiative process is available. This finding suggests that state governors sustain a loss in political power when the voter initiative is available. Additionally, the findings imply that individuals may employ the voter initiative process as a substitute for gubernatorial support.     

Informational Benefits of International Treaties

International treaties allow a minister in one country to learn about the beliefs held by a minister in another country, so allowing each to make better decisions. When the net benefits of environmental policy are uncertain, a country which participates in negotiating an environmental treaty, or which supports strong environmental action, thereby provides information to another country that such action can be worthwhile. This dimension of international environmental agreements helps explain why countries negotiate treaties, why these treaties often implement the Nash non-cooperative equilibrium, why agreement to a treaty by a country deemed not particularly favorable to it can strengthen environmental action, and why treaties may invoke a minimum participation clause. The informational mechanism we discuss holds even if physical spillovers are absent, and even if monitoring and enforcement are infeasible. Our approach can explain additional phenomena: how requirements for approval by several bodies within a country can increase support for a policy, and why simultaneous action can lead to better outcomes than sequential action.     

Co-ordinated environmental regulation: controlling non-point nitrate pollution while maintaining river flows

Environmental policy often addresses multiple targets, yet much economic analysis of pollution control is based on a single-target objective. In this paper, we present an analysis of policies to control non-point source nitrate pollution in the presence of minimum river flow restrictions. A non-linear bio-physical economic optimisation model of an intensively cultivated Scottish agricultural catchment was constructed. The presence of minimum river flow controls in the catchment was found to reduce nitrogen pollution. However, by themselves, river flow controls were found not to be a cost effective means to reduce non-point pollution. We quantify the improved social welfare from coordinating the environmental regulation of river flows and pollution, and determine the conditions under which such coordination is beneficial. The paper also investigates whether the benefits of such coordination can be sustained under wetter (winter) weather conditions implied by current climate change predictions.     

The size of public employment: An empirical study

Previous empirical studies of government have focused primarily on aggregate financial measures of size. This analysis examines a different measure: the share of public employment in total employment. In empirical tests on OECD countries for 1970 and 1980, the level of public employment is shown to be a clear reflection of voter demand for public goods, electoral support for socialist parties, and political response to the problems of unemployment. In contrast, variables that measure characteristics of the political process, such as degree of government decentralization, strength of interest groups, and voter participation in elections, are not statistically significant.     

Immigration and income redistribution in welfare states

This paper sets out a political economy model where median voters who benefit from local income redistribution are affected by the fiscal burden of welfare payments to immigrants. The median voters also have cultural preferences. Immigrants are influenced in their relocation decision by welfare benefits in host countries. Uncoordinated, coordinated and leader–follower domestic welfare policies are compared. In the last case, the median voter in the follower country is better off than the median voter in the leader country because of a less generous welfare system and hence fewer immigrants.     

欠发达农区特色种植空间扩散研究——以河南省大营村为例

农业创新只有充分地扩散,才能最大限度地发挥出其经济效应。本文以河南省信阳市固始县大营村为例,分析了大营村萝卜特色种植的优势条件,借助创新扩散理论揭示其特色种植的空间扩散轨迹,并总结其空间扩散方式、空间结构及影响环境。得出如下结论：①大营村特色萝卜产业选择具有优越的自然资源禀赋、悠久的种植历史、广阔的市场需求等优势;②大营村萝卜种植扩散,在空间上按照渐进式和跳跃式相结合的方式进行,存在一定的距离递减效应;③大营村萝卜种植扩散的空间结构呈现出点轴式模式,种植基地布局具有明显的“杜能圈”印迹;④大营村萝卜种植的空间扩散受到空间距离、地理环境、扩散效益、政府作用等因素的影响。