Hours and employment variation in business cycle theory

Summary Previous business cycle models have made the assumption that all the variation in the labor input is either due to changes in hours per worker or changes in number of workers, but not both. In this paper, both vary. We think this is a better model for estimating the contribution of Solow technology shocks to aggregate fluctuations. We find that about 70% of the variance of U.S. postwar cyclical fluctuations is induced by variations in the Solow technology parameter.This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Numbers SES-8722451 and SES-8909361. The Government has certain rights to this material.Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Science Foundation, the University of Minnesota, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, or the Federal Reserve System.     

The economic implications of learning-by-doing for population size and growth

This paper criticizes Arrow's research on learning-by-doing. The authors use a model like Arrow's to conclude that population growth--and, even more important, population size--may have positive effects on economic growth through positive effects on the rate of technical progress, on reasonable assumptions about the likely capital-output ratios with different demographic structures, but negative effects with other capital-output ratio difference. In a comparison of 2 worlds that have different population sizes, but that are otherwise alike including their capital-labor ratios and the initial per worker outputs, the larger world will come to have higher per worker output because of learning-by-doing. This conclusion is unlike the conclusion implicit in Arrow's model of learning-by-doing because Arrow looked at steady-state rates of growth rather than changes in the level of income from the starting point. Arrow's analysis also is confused by using the capital stock rather than cumulative output as the measure of experience, though output is the variable used in the empirical analyses that are the basis of this line of work.     

Institutions and economic development: How strong is the relation?

This paper investigates the relationship between institutions and economic development (output per worker). As in Hall and Jones (1999), we find that a 1% improvement in institutions (as we measure them) generates on average a 5% increase in output per worker. However, this relationship is not linear and the data have important heterogeneity. Countries with the same value of institutions have different levels of income per worker. We ask whether the “returns to institutions” are the same across countries conditional on the level of institutions. Using quantile regression methods, we show that for countries at the top of the conditional distribution of international incomes, the “returns to institutions” are lower (around 3.8%,) than for countries at the bottom of this distribution (around 6.2%). We show that this result is robust for different model specifications and definitions of institutions. We also provide evidence that, conditional on the level of institutional development, the distribution of output per worker tends to become less disperse as countries improve their institutional framework. In other words, having better institutions is essential in order to close the output-per-worker gap across countries. Finally, we provide the rationale behind the results through a modified version of a Neoclassical Growth Model with time varying wedges, representing policy distortions and institutions.We thank Lee Alston, Roger Koenker, and Stephen L. Parente for helpful discussion, Werner Baer for useful comments, and Chad Jones for facilitating access to the data set. We are also indebted to an anonymous referee and an associate editor for important suggestions that improved the final paper. The analysis, opinions and findings expressed herein represent the views of the authors, they are not necessarily those of the Banco de Portugal. Any remaining errors are our responsibility.First version received: May 2001/Final version received: August 2003     

On the Dynamics of Basic Growth Models: Ratio Stability vs. Convergence and Divergence in State Space

Abstract. We show for a class of basic growth models that convergence in ratios does not imply the pathwise convergence to the corresponding balanced growth path in the state space. We derive conditions on parameters and on the elasticity of the savings function for convergence or divergence and apply our results to the Solow model, an augmented Solow model as well as to an optimal growth model. An implication for the convergence debate is that two economies that differ only in the initial capital stock and converge in per capita terms might diverge to infinity in absolute terms.     

Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications

This article considers the consequences of explicitly allowing for stochastic technological progress and stochastic labor input in the discrete-time Solow-Swan and AK growth models. It shows that the capital-output ratio, but not output per capita, is ergodic irrespective of whether there is a unit root in technology, and thus is the more appropriate measure to use in the cross-sectional analysis of the growth process. Furthermore, the article derives the cross-sectional and time-series implications of the stochastic Solow-Swan model and contrasts these to those of its deterministic counterpart. Among these implications are that the mean of the capital-output ratio depends in a precise way not only on the saving rate and the growth rate of labor input, but also on the variance and higher-order cumulants of the capital-output ratio. Using the Summers-Heston data for seventy-two countries from 1960 to 1992, strong support is found for the predictions of the stochastic Solow-Swan model as compared to those of its deterministic counterpart (as well as those of the AK model), including a significant negative cross-sectional relationship between the mean and the variance of the capital-output ratio.     

The new evidence to tendency of convergence in Solow model

This paper tests the hypothesis in the revised endogenous dynamic Solow model that there exists dynamic convergence to the moving steady-state as a single economy grows. The convergence in the revised endogenous dynamic Solow model implies that the real interest rate and the growth rate of income per capita in an economy would move together, i.e., they would be cointegrated in empirical terms. Taking the U.S. economy as our research subject, we test this hypothesis by investigating the cointegration between the U.S. real interest rate and its growth rate of income per capita during a fifty-year period from 1951 to 2000. Our results show that the U.S. real interest rate and its growth rate of income per capita move together over time, providing strong evidence to support the dynamic convergence hypothesis.     

The Conditional Convergence Properties of Simple Kaldorian Growth Models

Findings of conditional convergence are usually interpreted within a neoclassical growth framework. This follows from the methodology of testing for conditional convergence, whereby the estimating equation is explicitly derived from a neoclassical growth model. Given this explicit derivation, findings of conditional convergence might be thought to discriminate against alternative approaches to growth in general and the Kaldorian approach to growth in particular. This article shows, however, that this is not the case. It does so by examining the conditional convergence properties of the ‘core’ model of Kaldorian growth theory—the Kaldor‐Dixon‐Thirlwall (KDT) model. In particular, the paper demonstrates that this model predicts conditional convergence of a qualitatively identical nature to that predicted by the neoclassical growth model. A simple extension of the KDT model that is reconciled with quantitative estimates of the speed of conditional convergence is also presented.     

Reassessing the empirical validity of the human-capital augmented neoclassical growth model

We reassess Mankiw, Romer and Weil's [mrw] version of the Solow model using, as did mrw, cross-sectional data to estimate the steady-state equation governing income per capita levels. The model fails in two critical areas. First, plausible factor shares obtained by mrw are not robust to the substitution of two measures of human capital that are more precise than the secondary school enrollment rates used by mrw. Second, the null hypothesis of an exogenous and identical level of technology in all countries is rejected. We also explain why the Solow model performed well despite the above shortcomings.     

Convergence and the Caribbean

This paper examines the convergence experience of selected Caribbean countries. It examines evidence of reduced dispersion in real per capita income—Sigma convergence—and ‘catch up’ growth across the group—Beta convergence. Estimation of the Solow—Swan cross-section model for the Caribbean shows weak evidence of β and σ convergence. However, structural instability and evidence of divergence over the sample period, suggest this convergence to be spurious. Further tests on individual country data showed an absense of steady state convergence for any country over time. Institutional structures and adjustments to economic shocks appear to have been important for the determination of per capita income in the long run.     

中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析

本文在测算和分析1982—2002年省区全要素生产率(TFP)的基础上进行TFP的收敛检验,并与收入(劳均GDP)的收敛模式做了对比分析。分析表明TFP解释了我国省区收入差距的主要部分;我们应用OLS、PanelData固定效应估计方法和DynamicPanelData(一阶差分GMM)方法进行收敛检验,得出的结论是:TFP与收入的收敛模式具有很大的相似性,全国范围内没有绝对收敛,只有条件收敛,但是TFP的收敛速度明显高于收入的收敛速度。三大地区中只有东部地区存在俱乐部收敛现象。而且,我国TFP与收入的收敛模式与世界范围的TFP和收入的收敛模式具有很大的相似性。     

A theory of racial diversity, segregation, and productivity

Empirical evidence illustrates that diversity generates both economic costs and benefits. This paper develops a theoretical model that accounts for the positive and deleterious effects of heterogeneity. First, an expanded Solow Growth Model demonstrates that the direct effects of diversity can be positive or negative, and depend upon the size of fixed parameter values. Second, diversity also influences individuals' location decisions. Segregation (variation of diversity across regions) always reduces national output per worker, so if diversity induces integration, it indirectly augments productivity as well. Finally, political policies aimed at reducing interaction costs across groups may actually reduce aggregate output per worker by encouraging segregation.     

Cross-country output convergence and growth: Evidence from varying coefficient nonparametric method

This article uses a nonparametric varying coefficient panel data model to study the convergence of real GDP per capita among 120 world economies for the sample period of 1980–2010. The estimates show that the indirect contribution of initial income via the control variables is important. The mediating effect of control variables to affect growth is positive. The conditional speed of convergence is larger than the absolute counterpart at all levels of initial income. The convergence hypothesis does not hold for economies with extremely low level of development. The conclusion is robust for regional subsamples of Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa.     

Why the Tigers Roared: Capital Accumulation and the East Asian Miracle

Recent growth accounting studies of Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea have found that the Solow residuals in these economies were relatively small. Given the high capital contributions, these results are often interpreted as evidence that factor accumulation, savings and investment were the principal cause of the East Asian miracle. This paper develops an alternative method of analysing these data, combining growth accounting methods with the linearized neoclassical growth model of Mankiw et al. (1992). The method explicitly quantifies the extent to which increases in productivity, as measured by the Solow residual, induced capital accumulation in these economies. It shows that in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, productivity growth contributed between half and two-thirds of the growth in GDP per worker over a 20-year period.     

Marxism,Neoclassical Economics and the Length of the Working Day

Real business cycle models purport to explain the business cycle as the result of technological change. This paper shows that the commonly used measure of technological change, the Solow residual, does not capture changes in the technology of the production function. The model used in this paper is within the framework of models described in Hansen & Sargent (1990, 1991). Technological change is modeled as a change in the value of one of the 'deep' technology parameters in the production function. The Solow residual is incapable of capturing the effects of this sort of technological change. There is no consistent relationship between the direction and size of a technological change and the sign and size of the Solow residual. The Solow residual often moves in the wrong direction, e.g. a negative technological shock causes a positive residual. Even when the Solow residual has the right sign, its size is not consistent with the size of the technological shock, e.g. a larger positive change in technology does not necessarily cause a larger positive Solow residual.     

A theory of racial diversity,segregation, and productivity

Empirical evidence illustrates that diversity generates both economic costs and benefits. This paper develops a theoretical model that accounts for the positive and deleterious effects of heterogeneity. First, an expanded Solow Growth Model demonstrates that the direct effects of diversity can be positive or negative, and depend upon the size of fixed parameter values. Second, diversity also influences individuals' location decisions. Segregation (variation of diversity across regions) always reduces national output per worker, so if diversity induces integration, it indirectly augments productivity as well. Finally, political policies aimed at reducing interaction costs across groups may actually reduce aggregate output per worker by encouraging segregation.     

TESTING CATCHING‐UP BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: “GROWTH RESISTANCE” AND SOMETIMES “GROWTH TRAGEDY”

This paper provides empirical evidence that there is no convergence between the GDP per‐capita of the developing countries since 1950. Relying upon recent econometric methodologies (non‐stationary long‐memory models, wavelet models and time‐varying factor representation models), we show that the transition paths to long‐run growth (the catch‐up dynamics) are very persistent over time and non‐stationary, thereby yielding a variety of potential steady states (conditional convergence). Our findings do not support the idea according to which the developing countries share a common factor (such as technology) that eliminates per‐capita output divergence in the very long run. Instead, we conclude that growth is an idiosyncratic phenomenon that yields different forms of transitional economic performance: growth tragedy (some countries with an initial low level of per‐capita income diverge from the richest ones), growth resistance (with many countries experiencing a low speed of growth convergence), and rapid convergence.     

Sectoral and aggregate technology growth in Spain

In this paper we analyze technological change in the Spanish economy by constructing adjusted Solow residuals, where the adjustment attempts to correct for the bias associated with the potential presence of imperfect competition, increasing returns, variable input utilization and, especially, sectoral reallocation of inputs across sectors. We refer to this modified Solow residual as a technology index. Sectoral reallocations and variable input utilization are key determinants of the differences between the aggregate Solow residual and the technology index resulting from the aggregation of estimated sectoral technological growth. We show that starting in the mid nineties, there has been a deceleration in the aggregate growth rate of technology which is basically due to the behaviour of the manufacturing sectors. Finally, our results imply that aggregate technology growth is less volatile than aggregate productivity as measured by the Solow residual.     

Convergence,technological interdependence and spatial externalities: a spatial dynamic panel data analysis

This study adopts a spatial dynamic panel data approach and spatial quasi-maximum likelihood to re-estimate the speed of growth convergence in 91 countries based on technological interdependence and spatial externalities. We perform a conditional Lagrange multiplier test for spatial error dependence and find some differences to previous studies. First, the switch from a cross-sectional to a dynamic panel data framework enables the estimated rate of conditional convergence to be higher, more accurate and more appropriate for realistic and theoretical expectations. Second, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) is a general form of simplified model that considers spatial error correlation, and its likelihood ratio test for the theoretical model of ‘learning by doing’ effect provides further evidence. Finally, statistical tests find that spatial correlation not only occurs in each variable, but also appears in the error term. Thus, the SDM does not exist in the assumptions associated with the spatial error, which are not necessarily correct.     

Technology and labor regulations: theory and evidence

This paper shows that different labor market policies can lead to differences in technology across sectors in a model of labor saving technologies. Labor market regulations reduce the skill premium and as a result, if technologies are labor saving, countries with more stringent labor regulation, which bind more for low skilled workers, become less technologically advanced in their high skill sectors, but more technologically advanced in their low skill sectors. We then present data on capital-output ratios, on estimated productivity levels and on patent creation, which tend to support the predictions of our model.     

Path-dependent economic growth with technological trajectory

This paper develops an integrated model of neoclassical and endogenous growth, which accounts for both income inequalities across countries and the convergence hypothesis, while all the growth stylized facts are satisfied. The model in this paper assumes that an economy industrializes in two stages. In the first stage, the economy starts industrialization through factor accumulation (the Solow stage); and after sufficient factor accumulation, it switches to the second stage of endogenous growth through innovation (the AK stage). Therefore, it becomes crucial to determine when switching from the Solow to the AK stages is implemented. We model this switching problem as a two-stage optimal control and show that the growth rate declines during the Solow stage, while in the AK stage it becomes constant. In addition, we draw several policy implications.