服务业发展对地方经济波动影响的实证分析——以上海为例

通过采用1978～2009年上海的经济和产业发展时间序列资料,用HP滤波法分析了服务业发展对上海地方经济波动的影响。实证结果表明,在三次产业构成的上海国民经济总量中,服务业波动性最小但其相对波动性仍大于上海国民经济的增长波动。即虽然服务业相对于农业、工业对上海国民经济的稳定贡献大,但当前大力发展上海服务业仍是不利于地方经济稳定的。     

结构差异、增长质量与经济周期波动的关联度

改革开放以来,需求结构中消费率的不断下降、所有制结构中国有制经济成分在国民经济中比重的持续降低以及产业结构中第二产业增加值占GDP比重的相对稳定,构成了我国经济周期波动的主要来源。在它们的共同作用下,我国经济周期波动性不断减弱,经济增长质量明显提高。针对经济结构变动中存在的影响以及经济周期波动性的因素,应相应降低经济周期波动的风险。     

服务业在我国经济发展中的作用

农业、工业和服务业①是国民经济中三大产业部门,随着经济发展,农业和工业对经济增长的拉动作用依次下降,服务业的作用逐步增强.中国正处于由中低等收入国家向中高等收入国家迈进的阶段,虽然工业仍然是国民经济的主导产业,但服务业在增长的稳定性、吸纳就业人口、固定资产投资与贸易增长等方面已超过工业.然而,服务业的"成本病"在我国也有一定的表现.提高服务业劳动生产率,不仅有利于促进产业结构升级,而且也助于全面提高我国产业经济的国际竞争力.     

发展多维市场 构建覆盖城乡现代服务业体系

发展经济学认为,经济发展的实质是产业结构的调整,这就是农业在国民经济结构中比例的下降,工业和服务业在国民经济中比例的上升.工业化实际就是减少农业份额,提升工业份额,进而提升服务业份额的过程.这里强调了服务业在工业化城市化过程中的重要地位.     

大力发展服务业促进经济持续健康发展

党的十六大明确提出:"加快发展现代服务业,提高第三产业在国民经济中的比重."这是因为服务业在现代经济中的作用越来越突出,服务业关系经济发展水平和经济增长质量.随着经济社会的发展,人们对物质产品的需求是有限的,而对服务的需求则是无限的,服务业具有无限的商机.同时,服务业投资少、回报快、没有污染,相对容易发展起来,又能极大地增加就业.因而,能否实现服务业的持续快速健康发展,关系到我国全面小康社会和现代化奋斗目标的顺利实现.     

大力发展服努业 促进经济持续健康发展

党的十六大明确提出：“加快发展现代服务业．提高第三产业在国民经济中的比重。”这是幽为服务业在现代经济中的作用越来越突出．服务业关系经济发展水平和经济增长质量。随着经济社会的发展，人们对物质产品的需求是有限的。而对服务的需求则是无限的．服务业具有无限的商机。同时，服务业投资少、回报快、没有污染．相对容易发展起来，又能极大地增加就业。因而．能否实现服务业的持续快速健康发展．关系到我国全面小康社会和现代化奋斗目标的顺利实现。     

上海服务贸易现状与前景

一、 当代服务业发展的新特点 当前,服务业在国民经济中的地位空前提高,在经济结构中的比例也越来越大,正在成为新时代的主导产业。同时,服务业结构也在发生变化,它的一个突出特点就是知识密集型新兴服务业在增加值中的比重明显增加,成为带动服务业增长的火车头。服务业的这种结构变化反映了新经济时代的经济结构特点。 二、上海服务业的发展相对滞     

信息平台

加快服务业发展是重要环节 国家计委副主任、国家计委服务业工作领导小组组长汪洋近日指出,加快发展服务业是走新型工业化道路的重要环节。 汪洋认为,服务业吸收就业的潜力巨大。就农业、工业、服务业三大产业来看,农业的需求弹性较低,国际竞争力也不高,在国民经济中的比重有可能进一步降低;过去20年,我国工业年均增长11.7％,这是一个相当高的速度,但再保持20年这样的高速度可能也有困难。因此,必须在相当程度上依靠服务业的     

工业资产的投资趋势与结构变动

1990年以来,工业增加值增长了8.63倍,工业固定资产投资(可比价)增长了约14.86倍,同期工业固定资产投资经历了较大的波动,在结构上也出现了一些新的变化.文章将对中国工业固定资产投资的增长趋势、波动性与结构的相关变动作概括研究.     

服务业发展如何提速

服务业,又称"第三产业",是国民经济的重要组成部分,服务业的发展水平是衡量现代社会经济发达程度的重要标志. 在现代市场经济国家,服务业所占比重都超过工业,成为国民经济的主导产业,也是吸纳社会就业的主渠道.     

Industrial structure change and economic growth: A China-Russia comparison

This paper examines the sources of economic growth and the nature of industrial structure change in China over the past decade, with a comparison to those in Russia. It shows that over the observation period between 1995 and 2008, the Chinese economy was concentrated relatively more in the manufacturing sector and relatively less in the service sector than the Russian economy. In addition, this paper finds that the higher economic growth rate in real GDP and aggregate labour productivity growth between 1996 and 2008 in China than in Russia was broadly based, with most industries contributing to China's better performance. Furthermore, it reveals that the acceleration in economic growth in China in 2003–2008 over 1996–2002 was mainly traced to an increased contribution from the manufacturing sector and to a lesser degree the service sector, while in Russia, it was the service sector, followed by the primary sector driven by the mining and oil and gas extraction industry. These results suggest that the Chinese and Russian economies complement each other, which bodes well for further economic cooperation and trade between the two countries.     

Toward a service-oriented growth strategy

This article suggests that the linkage between industrial modernization and significant service sector employment gains has not been adequately considered and that such consideration might lead to a re-evaluation of the labour absorption argument which calls for more ‘appropriate’ technologies with higher labour intensity. This paper reviews the literature on labour absorption and appropriate technology. It then examines the experience of the service sector in both DCs and LDCs. The key relationships between the service sector and the economy are then developed, leading up to possible implications for LDC growth strategies.     

中国外资银行服务贸易自由化的经济影响研究——基于可计算一般均衡SIC-GE模型的定量分析

本文利用2005～2009年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行进入壁垒的实际数据,通过设立银行业收益和成本方程发现并估算出消除壁垒带来的两方面行业直接效应,即外资银行服务价格水平下降1.9%和国内银行业经济效率改进1.8%。在此基础上利用国家信息中心可计算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)就壁垒消除对整个经济体的影响进行了系统评估。测算结果表明,两个直接效应中,改进国内银行业经济效率的经济影响是主要的;从宏观层面上看,短期内能够带来就业和GDP相对基准情景增长,同时居民消费、投资和出口有所增长。进口随着国内需求的扩张略有增长,净出口明显扩大。总体上,研究结果表明,2005年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行贸易壁垒是一项较为有效的政策举措,具有较好的示范作用。     

Serbia on the path to modern economic growth

Given the scanty and inadequate studies on Serbia's growth performance before the First World War, this paper presents production-side GDP estimates for Serbia for six years between 1867 and 1910. It probes into the growth dynamics, assessing convergence with the more developed countries of north-western Europe, as well as progress towards achieving modern economic growth. Although the economy showed some dynamism in terms of overall GDP, per capita GDP in pre-First World War Serbia grew by only 0.28 per cent per annum, as much of the overall GDP growth was eroded by rapid population growth. Far from converging with north-western Europe, Serbia continued to fall behind. Sluggish structural transformation and slow income per capita growth suggest that Serbia's transition to modern economic growth was in its infancy. Growth in the dominant agricultural sector was extensive, driven by expanding arable land and population growth. Land was affordable and easy to obtain; hence, peasants invested little in new technologies. Meanwhile, the modern industrial and service sectors were below a threshold that could sustain rapid growth. Nevertheless, this study also highlights the rapid expansion of a small modern sector and export diversification that reflected emergent ‘green shoots’ in 1905–10.     

The rise of the service sector in China

This paper analyzes the underlying mechanisms that explain the rise of the service sector in China. Along with China’s unprecedented growth, the rapid expansion of its service sector is one of the fastest among emerging countries. However, the literature has yet to offer a clear understanding of such expansion. We show that distribution services first grow with the manufacturing sector, followed by personal services as per capita income rises. Motivated by this growth pattern, this paper provides a theory that describes 1) the complementarity between distribution services and the manufacturing sector, and 2) the substitution between personal services and home production. Empirics show that the personal service sector is the key to account for the early and rapid rise of the service sector in China. Quantitatively, high productivity growth and high capital intensity in the personal service sector, and labor market frictions are the most important channels. By revealing the growth pattern of the service sector in the early stages of development, the paper thereby contributes to the growing literature on the rising importance of the service economy.     

The Role of Agriculture on the Recent Brazilian Economic Growth: How Agriculture Competes for Resources

Drawing upon the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, and other time series data, we construct a multi‐sector Ramsey model that shows the transition growth of the Brazilian agricultural sector and its effects on growth of the industrial and service sector of the economy, with particular emphasis given to the years 1994–2010. Our results capture the importance of the agriculture's capital intensity and the sector's factor productivity on the sector's growth, the substitution of capital for labor in agriculture, and the sustaining of agriculture's share in Brazilian GDP. These features are rather unique among emerging economies, most of which have experienced a transition out of agriculture and growth in nonfarm production relative to agriculture.     

依托进博会以进口助力宁波产业升级

以港口经济为核心竞争力的宁波面临产业升级的新局面，依托中国国际进口博览会召开的机遇，宁波市提出继续扩大对外开放，大力发展进口贸易的方针。通过分析宁波市进口规模、进口经营主体、进口商品结构等现状，发现其进口增长潜力充足且存在必要性。依托进博会进一步开放进口将助力宁波产业升级，包括发挥制造业逆向学习与协同效应、促使农业增效提质、带动港口特色显著的服务业。同时政府应该推动进口便利化举措、完善进口精细化管理、营造一流的进口营商环境，为以进口促进宁波产业升级提供政策配套。     

基于产业梯度的广东省转移产业选择研究

区域间梯度转移是区域经济合作的一种趋势,广东省经济异常活跃,但其产业梯度明显,珠三角更是重要人口和社会经济活动的聚集地带,产业转移作为客观经济现象,珠三角向粤东西北地区产业梯度转移,是实现广东省协同发展的有效途径,产业转移必然要进行转移产业的选择,选取广东省工业部门为分析对象,引入产业梯度系数和产业动态聚集指数分析珠三角转出产业与粤东西北承接产业的选择,对比政府产业转移政策,从中得到相关启示,为政府的产业转移与承接提供参考。     

世界经济周期的贸易传导机制

贸易究竟如何影响经济波动在世界范围内的传递?对这一问题的回答,必须结合与贸易有关的其他经济变量加以研究。实证研究证实了“贸易发展与经济周期的协动性具有正向关系”的结论,并且更深入地指出影响协动性的关键是贸易强度,而非受贸易模式影响的产业结构和贸易结构。在理论上,学者们在基础模型的基础上不断地加入了一些新元素,如不可贸易品、南北贸易模式等,试图对贸易传导机制进行更详细的描述,并力图解决两国模型中产生的“数量异常”和“价格异常”。     

Towards an Historical Model of Services Innovation: The Case of the Insurance Industry, 1700–1914

There has been a recent shift in the historiography of the modern British economy towards an emphasis on the success of the service sector. This article examines one criterion of success, namely innovation, in British insurance between 1700 and 1914. Factors determining innovation are surveyed and comparisons drawn with European insurance. The relevance of existing models of industrial innovation is challenged and a new model is constructed for insurance. This model suggests that insurance innovation ran broadly counter-cyclical to innovation in industry during this period, and was relatively undynamic. The article concludes by speculating about the relationship between industrial growth, liquidity constraints, and innovation in insurance.