EU enlargement and labour markets in the CEECs

The implications for labour markets are central to any political and economic evaluation of EU Eastern enlargement. The resulting new levels of unemployment and of wages will have direct effects on social welfare in the acceding countries as well as in the present member states of the EU. Furthermore, employment and wages are substantial factors of political stability in the central and eastern European countries (CEECs). The following paper analyses the present situation on the labour markets in the CEECs and discusses the effects of their reintegration into the Western European system and the resulting implications for labour market and wage policy institutions. Helpful comments by participants of the 2nd convention of the CEEISA “Globalisation of International Relations—Implications for Central and Eastern European Countries”, Warsaw, 15–17 June 2000, and of the 4th International IMAD Conference “Institutions in Transition”, Portoroz (Slovenia), 23–24 June 2000, are gratefully acknowledged.     

Access of Tunisian Fruits and Vegetables to the EU Market: Potential Impacts of the Revision of the Entry Price System

Agricultural trade flows worldwide continue to be subject to country restrictions of a tariff and non-tariff nature. This is more so in the case of fruits and vegetables in view of their multiplicity. This hinders the exports of these products, which is an important objective sought by the economy of Tunisia. This article simulates the potential consequences of a possible opening up of the European market borders on fruits and vegetables coming from Tunisia and the rest of the world (ROW), following alternative tariff reduction schemes of the entry price mechanism practiced by the EU, particularly in its ad-valorem duty. The analysis uses a partial equilibrium model that takes into consideration economic aspects related to the exports of these products, regardless of their interactions with other agricultural commodities. The model is composed of a series of behavioral equations describing excess demand and supply of fruits and vegetables of all trading partners and attempts to simulate “international” market equilibrium for these commodities. Tomatoes, oranges and peaches were selected for the analysis and three trading blocs were taken into consideration: The European Union, Tunisia and the ROW. Two policy scenarios were examined (a) reduction by one third of the ad-valorem tariff and (b) its total elimination. The results suggest that the impacts would be concentrated in specific periods, varying with products and regions. In addition to possible trade volumes, Tunisia and other countries may also gain in value from exports. A significant increase in the prices of peaches and tomatoes for Tunisia would result from the liberalization process of the EU market. Volumes and prices of EU domestic supplies would however exhibit moderate reductions.     

German Investment in Ireland and in the Central and East European Countries

The accession of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to the EU is expected by many to lead to the diversion of foreign direct investment towards the CEECs and away from other EU countries. The following paper focuses on the investigation of the internationalisation strategies and location choices of German multinational corporations (MNCs) in manufacturing against the background of growing regional economic integration, and particularly the fifth EU enlargement. It draws on the findings of a case study and interview results covering three German MNCs and their location choices for investment in both Ireland and the new EU member countries from Eastern Europe. This research project has been co-funded by the RIA in Dublin and DAAD. A first version of this work was presented at the September 2005 Irish Academy of Management Annual Conference in Galway.     

Global agricultural trade liberalization: Is Sub-Saharan Africa a gainer or loser?

This paper analyzes the potential impact of agricultural trade liberalization on Sub-Saharan Africa. We used the Agricultural Trade and Policy Simulation Model to estimate the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization, mainly in the US and EU, on the world-market prices of agricultural commodities. We then used the estimated price changes to assess the impact of these reforms on net-food importers as well as other Sub-Saharan African countries that enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU and US. The results indicate that the world market prices of all commodities imported by Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise while the prices of the key export commodities of the region would either decline or remain unchanged. Given that the prices of major food commodities are expected to rise, net-food-importing countries will experience increasing import bill, thus leading to welfare loss. Major Sub-Saharan Africa sugar exporters who are beneficiaries of preferential agreements such as the EU sugar protocol and US AGOA initiative will become losers as preferences erode due to global liberalization. Thus, the region is expected to generally become a net loser from the current WTO reform modalities.     

The International Competitiveness of CEEC Agriculture

The paper surveys the price competitiveness of agricultural production in Central and East European Countries (CEECs). It draws together empirical work conducted by tje authors and other studies that have estimated domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios for agriculture in various CEECs. The paper identifies that in general CEEC crop production is more internationally competitive than livestock farming. During the mid‐1990s, wheat production in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia was internationally competitive. In contrast, during the same period, milk production was not internationally competitive. However, there is also a considerable degree of variation from country to country; very little of Slovenia's agricultural production is internationally competitive. In the livestock sector the greatest problems lie where large herds have been broken up resulting in fragmented production. This has particularly affected beef and milk production. Considering variations in DRCs by farm type, larger private farms in Hungary and the Czech Republic are more internationally competitive than smaller private farms in crop production. If CEEC producers faced average EU prices for their traded inputs and output, most could be price competitive. However, conclusions should be treated with caution due to sensitivity of DRC ratios to changes in international prices and the choice of the shadow prices for non‐tradeable inputs     

The problems of the southward enlargement of the EC

The process of southward enlargement of the European Community is now well under way; Greece has been a full member since 1st January 1981 and intensive negotiations with Spain and Portugal are proceeding, although a successful conclusion is not yet in sight. Our article discusses the political and economic implications of enlargement for both the acceding countries and the existing community, concluding with a number of proposals regarding the course to be followed in future.     

Agriculture in the EU’s Eastern enlargement

After almost a decade of preparations, with many delays caused by disagreement about the specific conditions under which CEECs will adopt the Common Agricultural Policy, the schedule for the European Union’s “Eastern” enlargement has finally been set. This article deals with the current status of the enlargement and the outstanding agricultural issues for CEECs following the Copenhagen European Council.     

农业国内支持政策研究综述

农业的弱质性和多功能性为农业国内支持政策提供理论依据,各国普遍对农业实施农业国内支持政策。由于OECD成员国在基期国内支持水平很高以及WTO农业协议与新一轮WTO谈判的约束,国外普遍利用定量的方法研究农业支持的消减、农业谈判、欧盟扩大和农业补贴的效率等国内支持相关问题;国内有关农业国内支持的研究一般停留在定性方面,农业国内支持的定量研究尤其是优化研究很少。因此,研究如何不断提高我国农业国内支持水平,优化国内支持结构,建立合理的农业国内支持政策体系,具有一定的理论意义与实践价值。     

Enlargement and the EU budget: The battles ahead

The coming enlargement of the EU is unprecedented as regards both the number of acceding countries and the wealth differentials existing between the Union's current members and the candidates. The contributors to this forum present their views on how the complex financial issues involved can be solved in a way that will enable the enlarging Union to continue to function while ensuring a fair distribution of the costs and benefits of enlargement. This article is part of the project “Membership of Central and Eastern European Countries in the EU” funded by the Otto Wolff-Stiftung, Cologne.     

Industrial Policy in the New Member Countries of the European Union: A Survey of Patterns and Initiatives Since 1990

The transitional recession in the new Central and East European members of the EU called for completely novel approaches to industrial policy in the nineties. A strong rejection of industrial policy could be observed only in some countries and during the first years of the transition process. Subsequently however, deteriorating competitiveness, soaring unemployment and the dramatic condition of key export sectors made the re-appearance of supply-side economic policy thinking inevitable in most Central East European Countries (CEECs), except for such small and open economies as Slovenia and Estonia. A wide variety of industrial policies implemented in the CEECs are compared in the study, with special emphasis on tools used in order to promote incoming foreign direct investment, technological development and the small and medium-sized enterprise sector. These elements of the industrial policy toolkit will keep their key role in most CEECs, albeit their industrial policies will gradually align themselves to the European mainstream.     

Eastward enlargement of the EU: Will agricultural policy be an obstacle?

The political preparations for enlarging the European Union to include the Central European countries are in full swing, but economic policy preparations have not yet begun. There is a need for adjustment primarily in the Central European countries, but also in sensitive areas in the EU itself, particularly the Common Agricultural Policy. Will agricultural policy be an obstacle to eastward enlargement?     

The economics of enlarging the European Union: Policy reform versus transfers

While the European Union will hardly be in a position to receive new members without extensive policy and financial reform, the discussion so far has exaggerated the link between reform and enlargement. It has also tended to neglect the economic benefits to be expected from integrating the CEECs into the EU and has been dominated by concerns about intra-EU transfers. In an attempt to placate those member states which have complained that they pay too much, recent proposals could give rise to more inefficiencies and disparities within the Union. The author is grateful to Beuter, Frank Bollen, Veerle Deekmyn and Les Metealfe for their comments on a previous draft. The author alone is responsible for the views expressed in this paper.     

EU Enlargement Creating a Framework for the Eu-Russian Rapprochement

Abstract

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union has substantial influence on EU external policy and its relations with non-EU countries, including Russia. In this situation, Russia's main concern is to avoid the creation of new dividing lines after the enlargement. This paper will argue that instead of dividing Europe, the EU enlargement would create a framework for further cooperation and eventually rapprochement between the EU and Russia. Therefore, Russia would be able to benefit from this process. The paper will analyse the consequences of the EU enlargement for Russia and examine the main political concepts determining directions of this rapprochement between the European Union and Russia: New Neighbourhood, Common Spaces and Eastern dimension.     

Why do developing countries resist global trade agreements?

Abstract

Although the Doha Development Round was launched with much promise for developing countries in 2001, the global trade negotiations have collapsed. One of the reasons for the lack of progress in the negotiation is the developed countries' unwillingness to reduce their enormous farm domestic subsidies and massive agricultural trade distortions. The developing countries' economies are characterized by heavy dependence on farm sector, labor-intensive agriculture, and persistent unemployment. Consequently, rich nations' unfair agricultural policies are detrimental to the well-being of poor exporting countries. This study develops a model incorporating developed countries' domestic and trade policies and developing countries' economic characteristics to illustrate the adverse effects of rich countries' policies on poor countries. We show that elimination of developed countries' policies will increase the world prices of agricultural commodities, which will benefit the farm-dependent developing countries.     

Reform of the EU Sugar Market

After years of negotiations, the European Union finally reformed its sugar market in November 2005. Unilateral trade concessions, ongoing WTO negotiations and internal pressures were pushing the EU for a change. The following short article highlights some of the key features of the reform and the implications for EU member countries, world sugar markets and countries that currently enjoy preferential access to the EU market.      

How will the enlargement affect the old members of the European Union?

The recent enlargement of the European Union by ten countries has changed the framework for economic activities in Europe. This article sheds some light on the resulting macro effects on the old member states and discusses the distribution effects both between the incumbent countries and within these countries as well as the respective adjustment requirements. In conclusion a rough assessment is made of the future growth performance of the enlarged EU.     

Can Export Restrictions be Disciplined Through the World Trade Organisation?

A number of major agricultural exporting countries responded to high food prices from 2007 to 2011 by imposing export restrictions on agricultural commodities in efforts to constrain domestic food price inflation. These restrictions reduced the volume of internationally traded food and exacerbated international price spikes. Net food‐importing countries were faced with growing import bills, and non‐governmental organisations that target food security scaled‐back programme commitments and appealed for increased funding. There have subsequently been a chorus of calls for the development of a formal international framework that could discipline the use of agricultural export restrictions; the agreements of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have been targeted as possible fora for such disciplines. We present a framework in which the efficacy of such disciplines can be analysed and conclude that constraints on agricultural export restrictions are not likely to be effective within the WTO's Dispute Settlement Understanding for two reasons. First, the timelines for dispute settlement in the WTO are too long to be useful in disputes about export restrictions during periods of high food prices. Second, the withdrawal of tariff concessions, or trade retaliation, that could be authorised in such cases would not be a credible response for many complainant countries.     

European Union Market Access Conditions and Africa's Extensive Margin of Food Trade

This paper examines the impact of two European Union (EU) market access regulations in the food sector presumed to simultaneously affect firms’ decisions to export food products to the EU. We analysed EU pesticide standards on African exports alongside a complementary non‐tariff measure in the form of a minimum entry price regulation, which aims to protect EU growers of certain fruits and vegetables against international competition. Analysis was based on Africa's exports of tomatoes, oranges, and lime and lemon to the EU between 2008 and 2013, using the gravity model of trade. Our results show that EU market access conditions constitute significant barrier to the formation of new trade relation between the EU and Africa. In addition, initiation of trade relationships is contingent not only on market access conditions but also on domestic market constraints in Africa. These results imply that negotiating preferential entry prices duties and the removal of domestic market restraints as well as strengthening domestic capacity to comply with EU standards to enhance continuous market access for the continent could stimulate food trade along the extensive margin.     

Western European integration and Eastern European transformation

The process of EU integration has intensified in the 1980s and early 1990s. The desire of a number of central and eastern European countries to join the EU is often seen as a threat to the continuation of this process. How wide should the radius of EU enlargement be? Which forms of integration would be appropriate between the EU and different subsets of ex-CMEA countries?     

国际市场对我国大宗农产品价格的影响分析

2011年国际大宗农产品价格飙升,至今仍有可能再创新高。通过对其上涨的原因和影响我国大宗农产品价格水平的分析,提出了相应的解决对策及建议。