人民币汇改后中国资本市场改革的成就与问题

解决资本市场与货币市场的不平衡发展是中国实行金融改革的主要动因之一，随着大力发展资本市场的中央文件陆续提出，中国资本市场改革进展顺利，2005年7月人民币汇改后，资本市场也随之进入发展新阶段。过了2006年中国加入WTO承诺——对外开放金融业即将兑现，此前出现的新机遇和新问题亟待我们去分析解决，以积极应对对外开放对我国金融业带来的冲击并把握金融业开放给我们带来的契机。     

人民币升值对中国资本市场的影响

人民币升值问题经过财经媒体、经济学家甚至国家力量持续两年多的起伏跌宕的演绎，终于在一个“出其不意”的时刻水落石出。     

人民币汇改大跨步

正人民币汇改从2005年至今已近9年,小幅的单边升值几乎成为主基调。然而在今年2月末到3月中旬,人民币对美元汇率波动空间明显加大,甚至出现罕见的大幅贬值情况,央行4月上旬将人民币兑美元日间波幅从围绕中间价从1%扩大到2%,意味着持续数年的人民币单边升值告一段落,双向浮动阶段已然来临。央行汇改新思路日渐清晰。     

中国资本市场:问题与对策

一、目前资本市场存在的主要问题 1.非市场化的因素--行政手段一直在干扰着资本市场的深化.集中体现在以下五个方面:一是在股票的一级市场上,对股票的发行实行"总量控制,限报家数",人为地将上市公司同一次发行的普通股划分为国家股、法人股、内部职工股和社会公众股,以及外资股;并且按照身份不同,来确定公司股票的发行价格,以及可以或者不可以流通的范围和层次.     

资本市场与国有企业改革

(一) 资本市场的发展取决于融资的格局,具体地说取决于资金结余部门的结余资金总额,结余资金总额越大,资本市场规模越大。80年代后期,我国居民消费需求结构开始发生升级性变化,从短期消费逐步转向中长期消费,由此引起储蓄投资结构的重大转变。整个80年代,我国的国内总储蓄率平均为     

汇改后中国出口价格传递弹性的实证分析

汇率传递是汇率变动与其经济影响的中间环节。出口价格的传递弹性在很大程度上决定了汇率变动对出口的影响大小。本文在国际贸易标准分类一位数基础上,利用分布滞后模型和协整研究了2005年新一轮汇改后中国出口价格的传递弹性。结果显示,中国出口价格在长期内存在明显的不完传递现象,传递弹性略大于0.5。此外,传递弹性在不同产品间差别较大,在国际市场上竞争力较强的产品,转嫁人民币升值成本的能力也较强,其传递弹性比较大。这些结论为人民币汇率体制进一步改革以及稳定出口增长提供了一些重要参考。     

人民币汇改切忌衔枚疾进

<正>前不久,随着中国人民银行公布《第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》,有关人民币资本项目可兑换以及人民币汇率形成机制的改革,再次挑动了暗赌人民币升值者的敏感神经。而对于资本账户开放,最近一次的高层表态是国家外管局局长胡晓炼。作为管理国家外汇储备的新任掌门,他直言:“从长远来看,逐步实现人民币可兑换是中国外汇体制改革坚     

我国资本市场改革发展中的问题与对策

近年来我国资本市场迅速发展 ,但由于它的成长处于我国经济转轨的特定背景 ,因而它的发展也就存在一些问题。十六届三中全会的《决定》提出“大力发展资本和其他要素市场” ,必将对我国资本市场的改革、发展和创新起到巨大的推动作用。文章从我国资本市场的发展现状着手 ,在此基础上分析了我国资本市场的改革与发展中需要着重解决的几个问题 ,最后对我国资本市场的发展提出了一些建议。     

股权分置改革后的中国资本市场

由于历史的原因和人们认识上的不足,中国在发展资本市场过程中存在着问题,除了全球市场共同面临的透明度问题外,我们的制度设计亦存在严重的缺陷。股权分置的存在使中国资本市场发展和上市公司成长失去了内在动力。上市公司的股权分置和资本市场上权、责、利、险不清的资金循环体系混合在一起,必然造就具有内在制度缺陷的资本市场。这样的资本市场是没有生命力的。为此,必须进行资本市场的制度变革。2005年5月启动的股权分置改革是资本市场制度变革最重要的内容。     

Black market for foreign exchange,capital flows and smuggling

The paper develops a geometrical model of the working of a black market for foreign exchange and considers such questions as: Can the black market exchange rate be a guiding instrument to exchange control authorities considering a change in the exchange rate? How does exchange control affect the current and capital account use of foreign exchange in the presence of a foreign exchange black market? What are the implications of changes in trade restrictions (such as import tariffs) for the black market exchange rate, supplies of foreign exchange to exchange control authorities, and current and capital account use of foreign exchange?     

The impact of foreign capital on the Chinese banking market

In China, the foreign capital share of banks was restricted to 25% until 2006. Does such a relatively low share of foreign capital have any impact on the banking sector? In this paper, we use panel data on 19 major banks during 1996–2004 to shed light on the impact of foreign capital participation on the Chinese banking industry. We find that although the operating performance of foreign-owned banks is basically worse than that of domestic banks, as the market share of foreign-owned banks rises, they improve. For domestic banks, non-interest income decreases, while interest income increases. Therefore, the net effect of the foreign-owned banks' share on the profitability of domestic banks is small.     

Equity market and foreign capital

Abstract .  I present a model that demonstrates that the market mechanism is not always effective in stabilizing an open equity market. Foreign capital inflows create multiple equilibria in the equity market, which may simultaneously trigger a currency crisis as well as an equity market crash even if the equity market is well developed.     

A prototype model of the foreign exchange market of Canada: Forecasting capital flows and exchange rates

A balance-of-payments structural model of the foreign exchange market of Canada, endogenizing capital flows, the spot and forward exchange rates and the entities of the monetary sector, is developed using quarterly data for 1971–81. The capital flows have been disaggregated into ten categories and the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar have been analysed against five major currencies. While the model does not adhere strictly to purchasing power or interest rate parity, it does recognize them and it also incorporates other economic fundamentals, expectations and risk. Government interventions, although generated endogenously, are quantified implicitly and globally. The model tracks the post-Bretton Woods in-sample experience and generates ex post predictions reasonably well.     

Friction model and foreign exchange market intervention

The friction model is consistent with the hypothesis that a central bank intervenes in a foreign exchange market only if the necessity grows beyond certain thresholds. For this feature, the model is adopted in some recent studies as an attractive central bank reaction function. However, with official data on Federal Reserve and Bundesbank intervention, this paper shows that the friction model's advantage relative to a linear model may be negligible in terms of RMSE and MAE of in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasts. The implication is that intervention decisions are at the monetary authorities' discretion rather than dictated by a rule.     

Inter-market efficiency and the foreign exchange market

This paper extends previous tests of weak-form efficiency in foreign exchange markets by (a) testing the efficiency of trades involving a combination of forward markets, and by (b) using data with a daily frequency. We show the Canada-U.S. forward exchange market to be weak-form efficient during the period 1972 to 1975 inclusive.     

Interest rate convergence, capital controls, risk premia and foreign exchange market efficiency in the EMS

This paper examines interest rate convergence between Germany and the other EMS countries. We argue that earlier tests of convergence based on cointegration are not informative, because cointegration only implies that a linear combination of interest rates is stationary. We show that a conclusive judgment about convergence can be made if interest rate differentials exhibit a trend towards zero during the period when convergence occurred, and if the cointegrating vector has unit coefficients. We then establish that convergence has taken place in the “hard” EMS period. We also attempt to identify the sources of nonstationarities in interest differentials by examining the existence of stochastic or deterministic trends in the expected rate of depreciation and in the risk premium. Finally, the possibility of market inefficiencies is discussed.     

Heterogeneous expectations in the foreign exchange market

In this study a regime-switching approach is applied to estimate the chartist and fundamentalist (c&f) exchange rate model originally proposed by Frankel and Froot (1986). The c&f model is tested against alternative regime-switching specifications applying likelihood ratio tests. Nested atheoretical models like the popular segmented trends model suggested by Engel and Hamilton (1990) are rejected in favour of the multi-agent model. Our findings turned out to be relatively robust when assessing the models sub-sample estimates and out-of-sample performance.JEL Classification: F31, F37, G12, G15 Correspondence to: S. Reitz     

Intra-day seasonality in foreign exchange market transactions

This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system indicates significant evidence of intra-day seasonality in returns and return volatilities under usual market conditions. Moreover, analysis of realised tail outcomes supports seasonality for extraordinary market conditions across the trading day.