中国场内交易衍生品市场发展概况及发展建议

中国金融市场在这些年发展迅速,衍生品市场也逐步发展起来。此次金融危机暴发后,金融衍生品最早成为被归咎的对象。中国衍生品市场还处于初级发展阶段,作为后发展国家,这就提出了危机对中国衍生品发展的启示和未来如何发展中国衍生品市场的问题。针对这一问题,本文首先分析了近20多年来中国场内衍生品市场发展概况,提出了此次金融危机对中国发展场内交易衍生品的启示,对中国场内交易衍生品市场未来发展提出了一系列建议。     

中国场内交易衍生品市场特点分析与未来发展

中国改革开放三十年来,经济高速成长,金融不断完善,衍生品市场也逐步发展起来。此次金融危机暴发后,金融衍生品最早成为被归咎的对象。中国衍生品市场还处于初级发展阶段,作为后发展国家,这就提出了危机对中国衍生品发展的启示和未来如何发展中国衍生品市场的问题。针对这一问题,本文首先分析了近二十几年来中国场内的衍生品市场发展概况,然后提出了此次金融危机对中国发展衍生品的启示,最后对中国场内衍生品市场未来发展提出了一系列建议。     

统一监管:我国埸内衍生品监管模式的选择

本文基于国际场内衍生品的发展趋势,提出我国的场内衍生品监管模式应有利于提升衍生品交易所竞争力、鼓励场内衍生品市场创新、控制金融风险、提高监管效率和避免监管冲突与遗漏,从这些标准出发,本文对不同监管模式进行了分析,认为我国场内衍生品监管应选择统一监管模式。     

场外衍生品市场风险控制之路径选择

众所周知引发自07年开始的金融危机的是金融衍生品,但是这个衍生品市场是场外市场,而不是场内市场.场外衍生品市场在全球经济中发挥着重要的作用,它帮助金融机构管理资产负债表风险,并降低资金成本.场外衍生品交易增长很快,已经远远超出场内交易的规模.同时由于其交易机制的弊端等因素,使市场积聚了大量的风险.金融危机两年多以来,政府在救市、确保经济增长的同时,也在寻求场外市场发展的新思路.     

中国衍生品市场概括与未来发展

金融危机爆发后,金融衍生品最早成为被归咎的对象.中国衍生品市场还处于初级发展阶段,作为发展中国家,这就提出了危机对中国衍生品发展的启示和未来如何发展中国衍生品市场的问题.针对这一问题,本文首先分析了近二十年来中国场内和场外的衍生品市场发展概况,然后提出了此次金融危机对中国发展衍生品的启示,最后对中国衍生品市场未来发展提出了一系列建议.     

中国衍生品市场概况与未来发展

中国改革开放三十年来,经济高速成长,金融市场不断完善,衍生品市场也逐步发展起来。此次金融危机爆发后,金融衍生品最早成为被归咎的对象。中国衍生品市场还处于初级发展阶段,作为发展中国家,这就提出了危机对中国衍生品发展的启示和未来如何发展中国衍生品市场的问题。针对这一问题,本文首先分析了近二十几年来中国场内和场外的衍生品市场发展概况,然后提出了此次金融危机对中国发展衍生品的启示,最后对中国衍生品市场未来发展提出了一系列建议。     

全球场内金融衍生品发展趋势

从全球的衍生品发展趋势看,金融衍生品的交易量已经远远超过实物衍生品。而中国经过不懈的努力,国内金融衍生品市场正一步步走向成熟,在这一漫长的过程中,通过对全球场内金融衍生品的发展和现状进行研究,总结其中的经验和教训,对中国未来的发展具有十分重大的借鉴和指导意义。而本文旨在介绍全球场内金融衍生品发展趋势,希望能为中国未来的金融衍生品发展提供有益的借鉴和参考价值。     

金融危机下全球交易所场内衍生产品市场的发展特点

随着金融全球化、电子化以及期货期权等交易品种的异军突起,全球场内衍生品市场得到了迅速发展,并呈现出交易品种和规模扩大化、交易平台电子化、交易所一体化和公司化等特征。其相对有效的风险管理机制给在次贷危机中遭受;中击的场外衍生品市场也提供了一定的借鉴。文章展望了在防范风险的前提下未来场内衍生品市场的发展方向,以期为中国衍生品市场的发展提供借鉴。     

从繁复向简单回归:全球金融衍生品市场发展展望

金融危机之后,全球金融衍生品市场经历了下调到反弹的过程。场内市场交易量的放大、买卖价差的收窄,以及OTC市场的未偿付合约名义价值等指标都表明了这一走势。同时,金融衍生品市场也将呈现结构性分化:一是基础性衍生品将成为未来一段时期衍生品发展的主流;二是结构简单、标准化程度高的单一卖方CDS将受欢迎;三是亚太地区金融衍生品市场表现出巨大的潜力。最后,中央交易机制的建立和合约标准化的加强都将成为金融衍生品监管的趋势。     

金融转型过程中衍生品交易方式的选择

类似人民币远期交易的衍生品在国际市场上的出现，表明国际资本正在利用衍生产品整合我国的金融市场。显然，在现阶段金融转型过程中，迅速填补衍生市场场内集中交易的空白已是当务之急，只有如此，国内金融机构才可能真正抢占资本中心的制高点。很难想像，没有衍生产品的市场会成为国际金融中心。笔者在分析了衍生品不同交易方式后认为，交易所集中交易方式更适合经济转型国家，也更能有效抵御金融风险。当然从长期看仍然应该是场内与场外交易协调发展。     

Foreign Investment in Emerging Markets: International Diversification or Familiarity Bias?

This study empirically tests whether foreign investors take advantage of international diversification when investing in emerging Asian markets. Using the 2007–2008 financial crisis as identification, we find that firms with higher foreign ownership had better stock returns during the financial crisis. Moreover, the diversification effect exists in five out of the eight emerging markets and is stronger in markets with a lower dynamic conditional correlation with the global market index. We also find that foreign investors prefer firms with a lower international sales ratio. In conclusion, the evidence consistently suggests that foreign investors take advantage of diversification effects.     

The behaviour of asset return and volatility spillovers in Turkey: A tale of two crises

This paper examines return and volatility spillovers between the Turkish stock market with international stock, exchange rate and commodity markets. Our aim is not only to examine spillover behaviour with a large emerging market but also to examine cross—asset spillovers and how they vary across two periods of financial market crisis; the dotcom crash and the liquidity-induced financial crisis. This is to be compared with existing work that typically focuses on industrialised countries or single asset markets only. Using the spillover index methodology we uncover an interesting distinction between these two periods of markets stress. Over the dotcom period spillovers are largely between the same asset class, notably two exchange rate series and two international stock markets series. However, in the period including the financial crisis, spillovers both increase and cross asset types and suggest a much greater degree of market interdependence. Understanding this changing nature in spillovers is key for investors, regulators and academics involved in theoretical model development.     

Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A volatility impulse response function approach

By employing the volatility impulse response (VIRF) approach, this paper presents a general framework for addressing the extent of contagion effects between the BRICSs’ and U.S. stock markets and how the BRICSs’ stock markets have been influenced in the context of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. Our empirical results show during the period of 2007–2009 global financial crisis, there are significant contagion effects from the U.S. to the BRICSs’ stock markets. Yet, the degree of stock market reactions to such shocks differs from one market to another, depending on the level of integration with the international economy. Besides, the strengthened degree of stock market integration among the U.S. and BRICS has adverse effect such that if the 2007–2009 global financial crisis occurs today it may result in heavier impact on stock market volatility nowadays compared to the crisis-era.     

DIVERGENT EXPECTATIONS AND THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997

An important question concerning integration of global financial markets is whether local investors in an equity market react differently from international investors, particularly during periods of financial crisis. Considering local investors are closer to information, they might turn pessimistic before foreign investors before a crisis. We examine whether local investors in each of the six Asian stock markets—Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand—reacted differently from international investors during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Our empirical results indicate that, in general, closed‐end country fund share prices (mainly driven by foreign investors) Granger‐cause the respective net asset values (NAVs, mainly driven by local investors). Moreover, this one‐way Granger‐causality effect from share prices to NAVs becomes much stronger during the crisis period after controlling for U.S. stock returns. Our results suggest international investors turned pessimistic before local investors. JEL classification: G15     

Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?

Major global events can lead to a change in the cross‐country correlation of assets. Using stock prices from 25 economies, we test whether the terrorist attack in the United States on September 11, 2001, resulted in a contagion—an increase in correlation across global financial markets. Unlike prior works on contagion, we model the intrinsic heteroskedasticity. Our results indicate that international stock markets, particularly in Europe, responded more closely to U.S. stock market shocks in the three to six months after the crisis than before. Our evidence suggests that the benefits of international diversification in times of crisis are substantially diminished.     

次贷危机下美国和全球股市之联动

本文选用NADCC-EGARCH模型研究了次贷危机影响下全球主要股票市场的反应,并捕捉到欧亚五个股市同美国股市联动关系的变化过程。实证显示,由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机造成了全球股票市场不同程度的动荡,出现熊市迹象。美国同全球股市间的联动关系在危机扩散后存在结构性变化,且欧洲、日本等成熟市场与美国市场的联动关系受美国股市负面消息的影响较大。中国虽受到一定程度的冲击,但是国内股票市场结构相对稳定。     

欧元区主权债务危机对国际金融市场的影响及启示

欧元区主权债务危机爆发两年多来,全球股市纷纷下挫、走势低迷,外汇市场也随着债务危机的延伸而跌宕起伏。旷日持久的债务危机不仅对国际金融市场造成巨大冲击,加剧了国际资本流动的频繁无序,且已导致欧洲银行体系的信用风险加大和流动性紧张等问题。欧元区主权债务危机的爆发,提醒我们要全面审视中国的主权债务问题,尤其要加强对地方政府债务的监管,以防范债务危机的发生。     

Unveiling investor-induced channels of financial contagion in the 2008 financial crisis using copulas

Understanding how financial crises spread is important for policy-makers and regulators in order to take adequate measures to prevent or contain the spread of these crises. This paper will test whether there was contagion of the subprime financial crisis to the European stock markets of the NYSE Euronext group (Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Portugal) and, if evidence of contagion is found, it will determine the investor-induced channels through which the crisis propagated. We will use copula models for this purpose. After assessing whether there is evidence of financial contagion in the stock markets, we will examine whether the ‘wealth constraints’ transmission mechanism prevails over the ‘portfolio rebalancing’ channel. An additional test looks at the interaction between stock and bond markets during the crisis and allows us to determine if the transmission occurred due to the ‘cross market rebalancing’ channel or the ‘flying to quality’ phenomenon. The tests suggest that (i) financial contagion is present in all analyzed stock markets, (ii) a ‘portfolio rebalancing’ channel is the most important crisis transmission mechanism, (iii) and the ‘flight-to-quality’ phenomenon is also present in all analyzed stock markets.     

Sudden stops and liability dollarization: Evidence from Asia's financial intermediaries

Before the currency crisis of 1997–1998, East Asian financial intermediaries borrowed heavily in international markets. During the crisis, the intermediaries' stock market value declined sharply, and a sizable fraction of the institutions were closed or nationalized. We investigate how the short-term and the foreign-currency nature of the intermediaries' international borrowing contributed to these outcomes. From the impact of long-term international debt on the stock returns of surviving intermediaries, we observe the negative effects of the foreign-currency nature of international debt (liability dollarization). From the impact of short-term international debt on the likelihood of firm failure and on the size of surviving intermediaries' assets and liabilities, we observe the negative effects of the short-term nature of international debt (sudden stops).     

Efficient Signalling with Dividends,Investment, and Stock Repurchases

The efficient mix of dissipative dividends, investments in real and financial assets, and repurchases of stock is computed for a continuum of firms with inside information about the return on risky real assets. In the efficient signalling equilibrium, the representative firm optimally distributes dividends, invests in risky real assets to maximize net present value, holds no financial securities, and sells new stock in the market. This firm finances its value-maximizing investment first from internal funds and second from stock sold to new investors.