企业生产率演化与行业生产率变动——基于纺织业企业数据的实证研究

自上世纪90年代末开始,我国纺织业经历了大规模的重组与变革,与之伴随的是行业生产率的大幅提高。我们采用Foster等提出的分解方法,从企业生产率演化的角度,研究纺织业生产率提高的来源与动力。分解结果表明1998-2002年期间由国企改革带来的企业进入、退出效应约占全部效应的一半左右,其中公有制企业发挥主要作用;在2002-2005年期间行业生产率的提高主要是由存活企业的技术进步和产出份额的相对变化实现的,私有制企业成为推动纺织业生产率提高的主要力量。     

Trade liberalization and productivity growth in Australian manufacturing industries

Although there has been a revival of interest in the trade-growth nexus, the impact of trade liberalization on productivity gains remains empirical, given the ambiguity in the literature on this issue. This paper examines the case for Australia using annual data of eight two-digit manufacturing industries from 1968–69 to 1994–95. Unlike earlier studies, total factor productivity growth is first decomposed into technological progress and gains in technical efficiency, and the effect of trade liberalization is then investigated separately on TFP growth, as well as on each of the components of TFP growth. The empirical finding that trade liberalization has a positive and significant effect on technological progress, but no significant effect on gains in technical efficiency, adds yet another dimension to the evaluation of trade liberalization policies.     

Trade policy,productivity and learning: Evidence in South Africa

The theoretical argument in support of trade liberalisation is based, in part, on exports that foster dynamic efficiency gains primarily through learning and technological upgrading. Using data collected in the motor vehicle components industry, the article explores whether there is any evidence in the South African manufacturing sector to support this hypothesis. Although the conclusions are tentative, the author finds no unambiguous empirical support for the argument that, in the South African context, trade liberalisation fosters learning and innovation at the level of the firm.     

Trade integration in the Southern African development community: Prospects and problems 1

The adoption of a trade and development protocol by the member states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in August 1996 marks the end of an era of sectoral cooperation and the beginning of a process of trade integration among these countries. This article provides a preliminary analysis of the obstacles and opportunities which trade integration presents for the Southern African region in the context of the institutional and structural factors currently influencing trade patterns both within and outside the region. Critically, the article poses the question whether the provisions of the trade protocol provide an adequate framework for the region's agenda of trade integration and industrial development that is equitable, balanced and mutually beneficial. The analysis demonstrates that it does not, and hence the authors argue that measures that lie beyond the provisions of the trade protocol are a sine qua non for the success of trade integration.     

Trade, FDI, and productivity convergence: A dynamic panel data approach in 25 countries

The investigation, described in the paper, included developing and implementing a dynamic panel framework to study and compare the role of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) in long-run productivity convergence. Specifically, it employed the technique of a recently developed panel unit-root approach to examine and compare time-series behaviors of manufacturing productivity and services productivity of 25 countries from 1975 to 2004. Results indicated that long-run productivity convergence in manufacturing was trade-related as well as FDI-related. The results have also shown that grouping countries according to their trade partners tends to produce more significant evidence for productivity convergence than their FDI partners do. Furthermore, especially services sector shows no or little convergence, while the manufacturing sector shows strong evidence in favor of convergence. The findings suggest that trade and FDI matter for convergence particularly in the manufacturing productivity movement across countries but more specifically that trade proves more important in explaining long-run manufacturing productivity convergence.     

Trade integration in the twentieth century: What does Belgian history tell us?

Trade Integration in the Twentieth Century: What Does Belgian History Tell Us? — This paper studies globalization, protection and the impact of regional trading blocs in the twentieth century. The authors take the perspective of a small open core country in Europe. Using a gravity approach, it can be shown that trade integration in Europe followed a U-shaped pattern during the last hundred years. Moreover, the similarity between the gold standard and the current period is striking. Finally, evidence is found of a strong EC effect, in particular among EC6 countries.     

Asian holding of US Treasury securities: Trade integration as a threshold

This paper empirically investigates if there have been any shifts in regimes with Asian holding of US long-term Treasury securities with particular attention paid to the role of growing regional integration in trade. A panel regression estimation of eight Asian countries for 1998–2004 confirms the striking persistency of the portfolio weight of US Treasury securities. It also reveals, without a surprise, that the traditionally strong trade link with US as well as exchange rate regime and volatility of local currency bond index explain observed overinvestment in US Treasury securities deviating from what can be warranted by the market share of the US Treasury securities. What is interesting, however, is the estimated regime switches as found when examined with a threshold estimation (Hansen, 1999). We find three thresholds which divide the sample into four regimes—a decreasing persistency as intraregional trade link becomes tighter.     

加工贸易提高了环境全要素生产率吗——基于Luenberger生产率指数的研究

为系统考察加工贸易对经济增长、环境污染的影响,本文依托中国30个省份2000—2009年的数据测算出考虑坏产出的Luenberger生产率指数,并在此基础上对加工贸易的环境全要素生产率效应展开深入分析。研究表明,加工贸易和环境全要素生产率之间存在着显著的倒U形关系,当加工贸易占货物贸易的比重超过0．35时,加工贸易将对中国环境全要素生产率产生负效应。与此同时,出口和进口在环境全要素生产率的决定中有着完全相反的作用。在以上结论的基础上,本文提出了调整外贸模式、完善产业政策、协调区域发展的若干政策建议。     

Liquidity Crises and Corporate Cash Holdings in Chile

This paper addresses the heterogonous effects of adverse liquidity shocks on corporate cash holdings in an emerging market. We use a large panel dataset with quarterly financial information for Chilean firms during the period 1996–2009. We find three main results. First, liquidity crises have had a negative and economically significant effect on cash holdings, but mainly for small firms; medium‐sized and large firms have not been affected by liquidity crises. Second, liquidity crises reduce the ability of firms to adjust to optimal cash holdings. Finally, medium‐sized firms are less able to adjust cash holdings compared to small and large firms.     

Agricultural productivity in China

A stylized fact of Chinese agricultural production is a persistently rising cost share of industrial inputs, reflecting the law of diminishing returns. An alternative approach is presented to estimate agricultural productivity by incorporating this characteristic with a CES production function. We find that the elasticity of substitution affects significantly the size of total factor productivity. Our results suggest that the role of industrial inputs may have been underestimated; most of the gain in total factor productivity is attributable to the evolving mix of agricultural output, and the contribution of household farming may not be as large as previously claimed.     

Trade Costs and Intra-Industry Trade

Formal economic modeling of intra-industry trade ignores transportation or, more broadly, trade costs. Yet, as Anderson and van Wincoop (2004) suggest, trade costs are quite large. This paper extends work by Bergstrand (1990) that addressed intra-industry trade in the explicit presence of trade costs. In the context of a Helpman–Krugman-cum-trade-costs model, we derive four empirically testable hypotheses regarding intra-industry trade and trade costs. These hypotheses are investigated empirically using a cross-section of bilateral OECD Grubel–Lloyd indexes. The results are strongly in accordance with the hypotheses, indicating the importance of a more rigorous and systematic treatment of trade costs in the intra-industry trade literature. JEL no. F14, F15     

The evolution of the productivity dispersion of firms: a reevaluation of its determinants in the case of Japan

This paper contributes to the literature that empirically analyzes the evolution of productivity dispersion at the firm level and its determinants. We investigate the case of Japanese firms by using a firm-level panel dataset taken from a large-scale administrative survey for the years 1994–2003. We confirm that there was indeed an overall increase in productivity dispersion. Moreover, we find that the introduction of information and communication technologies (ICT) decreased the within-industry labor productivity dispersion, contrary to what has been found for some other countries. On the other hand, we find evidence of a significant and positive impact of internationalization on productivity dispersion.     

Financial development, exporting and firm heterogeneity in Chile

Using plant-level data from the manufacturing sector of Chile for the period 1990–2000, this paper examines the effect of financial development on the probability of exporting at the plant level, with a special focus on the heterogeneous responses of plants with different characteristics. The main results are that an improvement in financial development increases the probability of exporting of more productive plants and those with foreign ownership operating in manufacturing sectors that are more dependent on external finance. Our estimates also show that financial development does not appear to improve the probability of exporting for relatively smaller and younger plants. This result suggests that, at least for the case of exporting in Chile, smaller and younger plants are not necessarily more likely to benefit than larger and older plants from improvements in access to credit.     

贸易自由化与贸易保护

<正>一、贸易自由化的概念贸易自由化—国对外国商品和服务的进口所采取的限制性逐步减少,为进口商品提供贸易便利的过程或结果。它表现为进口关税率从比较高的水平逐步调到比较低的水平。同时表现为非关税壁垒或关税以外贸易障碍的逐步减少或消除。从     

山东省对外贸易与经济增长的协整及因果关系的实证检验

本文根据山东省1978—2002年的数据，利用协整检验和Granger因果关系检验等计量经济学方法检验对外贸易与经济增长的关系，结果发现山东省的国内生产总值与出口、进口之间存在长期的稳定关系，但出口与经济增长不存在双向因果关系，而进口是经济增长的原因，也是出口增长的原因。本文分析了这种结果的可能原因，指出现阶段山东经济并非出口导向型，在一定程度上山东的对外贸易类型是加工贸易型。     

Inflation and total factor productivity in Germany

Conclusions This paper has found a significant and substantial negative relationship between inflation and economic growth in Germany. Thus, inflation substantially reduced the rate of productivity growth and output growth in Germany. German policymakers, especially the Bundesbank, have emphasized the importance of low inflation rates, and inflation in Germany has been less than in most OECD countries. As a result, Germany has benefitted from relatively high rates of economic growth. But had the Bundesbank succeeded in achieving zero inflation, the underlying rate of productivity growth would have been almost a third higher and output growth about a sixth higher.