Aggregated analysis of in-depth accident causation data

Data collected from in-depth road accident investigations are very informative and may contain more than 500 accident-related variables for a single investigated case. These data may be used to get a more detailed knowledge on accident and injury causation associated with a specific accident scenario. However, due to their complexity, studies using in-depth data at aggregated levels are not common. The objective of this paper is to propose a methodology to analyse aggregated accident causation charts in order to highlight strong and weak relationships between crash causes and pre-crash scenarios. These relationships can be taken into account when developing or assessing new road safety measures (e.g. in-vehicle systems). The methodology has been applied to an in-depth accident dataset derived from the European project SafetyNet. Four different pre-crash scenarios associated with the accident scenario ‘vehicles encountering something while remaining in their lane’ have been investigated. Even if generalization of these results should be done with care because of database representativeness issues, the methodology is promising, highlighting, for example, a well-defined causation pattern related to vehicles striking a vehicle in rear-end accidents.     

Supporting the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020

The Scottish Accident Prevention Council is responsible for promoting water safety in Scotland. It has long expressed concern that the number of reported drownings in Scotland underestimates the actual figures. The key aims of this study were to establish a valid database of water-based incidents in Scotland and test the under-reporting proposition.

A survey involving interviews and correspondence was undertaken to establish the sources of information on drownings. Once identified, a database was established and data for a 7-year period acquired.

The study identified the organizations essential to the establishment of a complete database. It also established protocols for gaining annual information. Data analysis confirmed a significant under-reporting of accident data and signalled a number of areas of concern with regard to those most at risk. The study produced, for the first time, a mechanism for recording complete details of drownings in Scotland.     

The Influence of Negative Information on Purchase Behaviour

This was a longitudinal study that examined consumer reactions to hazardous product incidents. The purpose of this study was to examine consumer responses to product safety hazard incidents over time, and to identify demographic groups that are either most resistant or most affected by hazard incidents. The results suggest that in the first year after an incident, the crisis managers had only limited control over adverse effects to negative information. In the longer term, consumer reactions were still rather uniform and severe in most of the cases. The effects are examined in the context of key market segments for each product, and with regard to company responses to the incidents. Managers should expect strong negative reactions from some demographic subgroups over time and are advised to closely monitor the impact of hazardous incidents on their target markets.     

基于网络编码的衰落信道频谱感知算法

针对传统认知无线电网络中频谱状态转换频繁和频谱检测时延长的问题,提出基于随机线性网络编码的累积和能量检测频谱感知算法。该算法在主用户信道中引入随机线性网络编码,利用网络编码对频谱的整形作用,使频谱状态转换稀疏,频谱结构更规律化,减小频谱检测时延,提高系统吞吐率。此外,针对传统累积和能量检测算法抗衰落性能差的问题,通过比较该算法在五种衰落信道下的检测时延和吞吐率,研究该算法的抗衰落性能。实验结果表明,在一定的虚警概率下,该算法有效降低了检测时延,提高了吞吐率及抗衰落能力,能够更好地适应复杂的衰落信道环境。     

Risk assessment for loader- and dozer-related fatal incidents in U.S. mining

The paper presents the results of research aimed at developing a risk assessment process that can be used to more thoroughly characterise risks associated with loader- and dozer-related fatal incidents in US mining. The assessment is based on historical data obtained from the US Mine Safety and Health Administration investigation reports, which includes 77 fatal incidents that occurred from 1995 to 2006. The Preliminary Hazard Assessment method is used in identifying and quantifying risks. Risk levels are then developed using a pre-established risk matrix that ranks them according to probability and severity. The resulting assigned risk value can then be used to prioritise risk control strategies. A total of 10 hazards were identified for loaders. The hazards 'failure to follow adequate maintenance procedure' and 'failure of mechanical/electrical/hydraulic components' were the most severe and frequent hazards and they fell into the category of 'high' risk. The same number of hazards was identified for dozers. The hazard 'failure to identify adverse site/geological conditions' was the most severe and frequent hazard and it fell into the category of 'high' risk.     

A review of powered-two-wheeler behaviour and safety

Powered-two-wheelers (PTWs) constitute a very vulnerable type of road users. The notable increase in their share in traffic and the high risk of severe accident occurrence raise the need for further research. However, current research on PTW safety is not as extensive as for other road users (passenger cars, etc.). Consequently, the objective of this research is to provide a critical review of research on Power-Two-Wheeler behaviour and safety with regard to data collection, methods of analysis and contributory factors, and discuss the needs for further research. Both macroscopic analyses (accident frequency, accident rates and severity) and microscopic analyses (PTW rider behaviour, interaction with other motorised traffic) are examined and discussed in this paper. The research gaps and the needs for future research are identified, discussed and put in a broad framework. When the interactions between behaviour, accident frequency/rates and severity are co-considered and co-investigated with the various contributory factors (riders, other users, road and traffic environment, vehicles), the accident and injury causes as well as the related solutions are better identified.     

Drownings in Scotland: the real story

The Scottish Accident Prevention Council is responsible for promoting water safety in Scotland. It has long expressed concern that the number of reported drownings in Scotland underestimates the actual figures. The key aims of this study were to establish a valid database of water-based incidents in Scotland and test the under-reporting proposition. A survey involving interviews and correspondence was undertaken to establish the sources of information on drownings. Once identified, a database was established and data for a 7-year period acquired. The study identified the organizations essential to the establishment of a complete database. It also established protocols for gaining annual information. Data analysis confirmed a significant under-reporting of accident data and signalled a number of areas of concern with regard to those most at risk. The study produced, for the first time, a mechanism for recording complete details of drownings in Scotland.     

基于非参量累积和的合作频谱感知

针对认知无线电网络中频谱感知的检测时延降低问题，提出了基于非参量累积和的合作频谱感知算法。本地认知用户预处理频谱观测数据，获得观测数据相对于信念值的正向漂移和负向漂移。为了缩短检测延迟，认知用户只将数据的正向漂移同步传输至融合中心。融合中心融合正向漂移得到判决信息，采用非参量累积和算法依时间序列顺序累加判决信息，判断主用户是否正在使用授权频段。为了解决不传输负向漂移引起的虚警问题，改进算法提出融合中心可以保留首次判决，经过等待时间间隔后再作出最终判决。相对于传统的软融合算法，改进融合规则的合作频谱感知算法具有较低的检测延迟。     

Impact of the effect of economic crisis and the targeted motorcycle safety programme on motorcycle-related accidents, injuries and fatalities in Malaysia

In 1997, a Motorcycle Safety Programme (MSP) was introduced to address the motorcycle-related accident problem. The MSP was specifically targeted at motorcyclists. In addition to the MSP, the recent economic recession has significantly contributed to a reduction of traffic-related incidents. This paper examines the effects of the recent economic crisis and the MSP on motorcycle-related accidents, casualties and fatalities in Malaysia. The autocorrelation integrated moving average model with transfer function was used to evaluate the overall effects of the interventions. The variables used in developing the model were gross domestic product and MSPs. The analysis found a 25% reduction in the number of motorcycle-related accidents, a 27% reduction in motorcycle casualties and a 38% reduction in motorcycle fatalities after the implementation of MSP. Findings indicate that the MSP has been one of the effective measures in reducing motorcycle safety problems in Malaysia. Apart from that, the performance of the country's economy was also found to be significant in explaining the number of motorcycle-related accidents, casualties and fatalities in Malaysia.     

一种适用于超宽带脉冲信号检测的改进CUSUM算法

将最快检测技术应用于超宽带脉冲信号检测中,具体采用改进的CUSUM(Cumulative Sum )算法来检测 超宽带脉冲信号。首先分析了经过多径信道衰减后的超宽带脉冲信号概率分布特性,进一步 提出了适用于超宽带脉冲信号检测的改进CUSUM算法。理论分析和仿真证明了所提改进 算法性能优越且实现复杂度低。该算法克服了块检测算法的信噪比门限效应,且具有最优的 检测延迟性能,相同虚警限制下其检测性能明显优于能量检测算法。     

Is the cardholder an efficient alarm system to detect credit card incidents?

There is a growing tendency in credit card industry to increase the contribution of the smallest players, the cardholders, in the detection of card incidents. This article examines whether cardholders are efficient at detecting/communicating incidents of theft, loss or fraudulent use of their cards. The analysis focuses on whether they demonstrate enough speed of response to support a risk control subsystem by the issuer. The research follows a completely new approach showing how the issue can be handled by applying the concept of elasticity, a notion just recently exported from economics to the field of statistics by linking it with the reverse hazard rate. The issue is focused on the analysis of the characteristics of the elasticity function of the random variable that measures the delay of cardholders in reporting incidents. This study is illustrated with an application to a real data set of 1069 incidents.     

Preventing falls in the elderly living in a deprived area: Evaluation of a community intervention

Statement of the Problem While greatly easing the shopping process for parents, transportation of children in shopping carts also represents a hazard for injuries. Effective accident prevention measures would therefore be desirable. Methods 137 shopping cart-related accidents, the 138 victims of which presented to an Austrian Pediatric Surgical Casualty Department over a period of nine years, were reviewed retrospectively by analysis of the patient charts and of 79 questionnaires returned, correctly filled in, by the family. Results The yearly number varied between 10 and 21 without a falling trend. While 43% of the children were 2 years of age or younger, 18% were older than 4. Three-quarters of the latter had been placed inside the trolley although the maximum permitted weight is 15 kg. Falls out of the trolley comprised two-thirds of all accidents, with the child standing up as the leading cause; these were mostly falls from the basket, followed in almost 20% of cases by toppling over of the entire shopping cart. The youngest children – almost all regularly placed in the integrated seat – were at a special risk for this kind of accident, which frequently occurred in the car park. Lessons learned from the accidents were limited almost exclusively to behavioral changes implemented by the parents. Current European Standards have obviously not taken the main accident mechanisms into account, even though these have repeatedly been described in the literature. Conclusion We believe that technical improvements in the present shopping cart design are desirable to reduce the risk of accidents. Our main suggestions include: solid child seats with integrated footrests, obligatory installation and use of safety belts, and construction of trolleys with a lower center of gravity and a broader wheel base.     

The Valuation Model for a Risky Asset When Its Risky Factors Follow Gamma Distributions

This paper constructed a pricing model for the asset with multi‐risks by specifying the risky factors (i.e., interest rate and termination hazard rates) to follow gamma distributions. The model not only avoids the possibility of the termination hazard rate taking an irrational (i.e., negative) value, but it also makes it easier to derive a valuation formula for a risky asset. Our model can also effortless apply because the parameters of the gamma distribution can easily be estimated from market data. An example using Taiwanese bond data illustrates how the model can be utilized for practical applications. To facilitate understanding of how accurately the different models price risky bonds, we compare their out‐of‐sample pricing errors for different hazard rate specifications assuming normal and gamma distributions. The results show that our pricing formula is realistic and accurate in its applications. Therefore, it should help market participants to accurately price risky assets and to effectively manage complicated portfolios.     

Development of crash frequency models for safety promotion of urban collector streets

The merits for development and application of crash frequency prediction models for safety promotion on any road type, with a focus on urban collector streets, are presented in this article. The city of Yazd, a medium-sized city in the middle of Iran, was selected as a case study and the data required for modelling crash frequencies along five collector streets comprising 31 street sections were collected. Six models including Poisson and negative binomial models and their deviations along with a hybrid artificial neural networks (ANN) model were developed to predict crash frequency along each street section. The overfitting problem was addressed using appropriate sensitivity analysis methods which were also used to identify the input variables with significant impact on the model performance. The results indicated that the developed hybrid ANN model provided the best performance in terms of accuracy and the number of input variables. The application of hybrid ANN model to evaluate the safety impacts of four different strategies, each resembled by one of the input variables of this model, indicated that these models can successfully be used for this purpose.     

Safety Culture: A Catalyst for Sustainable Development

The present paper investigates the potential benefits of a strong safety culture (SC). Specifically, we build on the organizational support theory to explore the direct and indirect effects of SC on firm performance. Partial least squares method is used to analyze the data collected from a survey among 251 Canadian plants. The results show that SC is associated with several performance indicators all linked to sustainable development (i.e., environmental, financial, and safety performance). Importantly, our findings also suggest that the relationships between SC and environmental/safety performance are mediated by the actual level of implemented environmental/safety practices within plants. We conclude the paper by highlighting the study’s limitations and contributions as well as theoretical and managerial implications.     

On the Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress in the Light of the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Greek Listed Firms

This paper evaluates the impact of accounting and market-driven information on the prediction of bankruptcy for Greek firms using the discrete hazard approach. The findings show that a hazard model that incorporates three accounting ratio components of Z-score and three market-driven variables is the most appropriate model for the prediction of corporate financial distress in Greece. This model outperforms a univariate model that uses the expected default frequency (EDF) derived from the Merton distance to default model, a multivariate model that is exclusively based on accounting variables, a model that combines the EDF and accounting variables, and a multivariate model that uses only market-driven variables. Classification accuracy and bankruptcy forecast tests confirm the main results. The model is also able to sustain high long-term performance when augmenting the forecast horizon from one to two and three years.     

An epidemiological study of injury in mines: implications for safety promotion

The role of various factors in coal mine-related injuries was investigated using a case-control design. The study setting was two neighbouring underground coal mines in India. Cases comprised mine workers (n = 150) who had sustained a prior mine-related injury from a population of 1000 underground workers. Controls were selected from those mineworkers with no history of a prior mine-related injury using frequency matching (n = 150) from the same source population. Data were collected from the cases and controls using a structured survey questionnaire. Based on the responses of the participants, each factor was grouped into three categories. High-low plots and Chi-square tests were conducted to explore the differences between the cases and controls. Bivariate logistic regression was run to estimate the crude odds of injuries, while multivariate logistic regression estimated the adjusted odds of injuries to the workers for the various variable categories. High-low plots and the Chi-square test clearly revealed that the cases and controls significantly differed in their responses for the variables studied. Accident-involved workers take more risks, are negatively affected, job dissatisfied, feel more production pressure, job stress, work hazards and are less job involved and are more dissatisfied with safety environment and social climate of the mines compared to the controls. The multivariate odds of injuries to high risk taking, negatively affected and job dissatisfied workers are 1.21, 9.34 and 2.00 times more compared to their lowest counterparts. Similarly, workers satisfied with the overall safety practice and safety equipment availability and maintenance are 1.5 and 3.12 times less likely to be injured than the workers with little or no satisfaction with the above factors. It is therefore concluded that negative affectivity and job dissatisfaction are the two major personal level factors that contribute more towards accident/injury in the mines studied. Identification and elimination/reduction of negative attitudes are of utmost importance.     

风险管理在食品检验中的应用

我国的食品工业正呈快速上升趋势,各种新资源食品在基因工程新技术的推动下,不断得到改进和应用。因此,我国的食品行业需出台新的食品安全检验与管理理念,对食品中可能存在的危害元素加以控制和检测,并采用适宜的风险评估和风险检验措施,将食品危害控制在最低水平,提升我国的食品安全水平。     

Social inequalities in injury risk in Wales,U.K.

Road traffic accident data in Nigeria generally lack exact coordinate information. Accident analysis is, therefore, restricted to aggregate data on trends, magnitude and temporal dimensions. This article addresses the road accident problem in Jos between 1995 and 1999 through a road profiling approach. Results show that four gateway routes, seven multilane roadways (including two gateway routes) and seven road intersections accounted for 84% of all traffic accidents, 84% of injured casualties and 88% of fatalities. This approach allows for quantification of impacts of controlling for accidents by deliberate profiling of roads for close monitoring and policing. For example, reducing accident counts and fatalities by 50% each on gateway routes will amount to ～35 and 40% reduction in accident and fatality counts, respectively. Countermeasures must consider these roadways and intersections as important inputs in their accidents and casualty reduction targets.