The real effects of inflation in a developing economy with external debt and sovereign risk

In this paper we develop an intertemporal optimizing model to examine the real effects of inflation induced by monetary policy in an open developing economy with external debt and sovereign risk. The economy faces an upward sloping supply curve of debt. In our model, households require real balances in advance for consumption expenditures, and monetary policy involves targeting the inflation rate. We show that an increase in the inflation rate leads to a decrease in the stock of foreign debt. It also leads to a decrease in consumption, employment, capital accumulation and output in the long run. Our results show that the accumulation of foreign debt exhibits non-monotonic adjustment. Particularly, an increase in the inflation rate leads to a current account surplus followed by a deficit. Along with this non-monotonicity, our model also explains the positive correlation between savings and investment during the transitional periods (Feldstein–Horioka puzzle).     

Technical Efficiency in a Semi-Formal Financial Sector: The Case of Mexico*

The semi-formal financial sector in Mexico is playing an increasingly important role in serving a largely poor, rural clientele. A stochastic frontier with non-monotonic marginal effects [ Wang, Journal of Productivity Analysis (2002 ), Vol. 18, pp. 241–253] reveals a wide disparity in technical efficiency levels among 190 Mexican semi-formal financial intermediaries. The results show that technology, average loan size, rural outreach and institutional age are all positively associated with technical efficiency. The marginal effects vary widely and, in some cases, the effects are non-monotonic over percentile groups. The results indicate that strengthening younger, technologically undeveloped financial institutions will have the strongest marginal benefit in revitalizing the rural financial sector.     

Heckscher–Ohlin and agglomeration

We argue that embedding endowment-based comparative advantage within a standard NEG framework helps solve the indeterminacy due to multiple equilibria and the ambiguity concerning the relation between integration and specialisation (monotonicity versus non-monotonicity) typical of the NEG literature. In particular, we show that if endowments are in the FPE set, the process of trade integration involves an overshooting of international specialisation and relative factor prices with respect to the free trade level determined by factor abundance. In contrast, if endowments are outside the FPE set, then, even in the presence of agglomeration forces, specialisation and factor prices are monotonically related to trade costs, as implied by the standard trade theory. We argue that the model can shed light on some puzzling stylised facts.     

Capital Allocation Effects of Financial Reporting Regulation and Enforcement

This paper analyses the effects of stricter financial reporting enforcement on capital allocation and reporting quality in a game-theoretic model and derives conclusions about optimal enforcement strictness. Analysis of the model shows that reporting quality strictly increases with tighter enforcement. However, the effect of stricter enforcement on capital allocation is non-monotonic. Intermediate enforcement strictness results in overdeterrence of viable projects even without costs of compliance. This effect can be alleviated by means of either less or more stringent enforcement.     

Financial regulations and bank credit to the real economy

We present a new agent-based model focusing on the linkage between the interbank market and the real economy with a stylised central bank acting as lender of last resort. Using this model we address the tradeoff between stability and economic performance for different structures of the interbank market. We also explore the efficacy of recent regulatory reforms using our richer model. Our results suggest that the effects of regulatory leverage ratios on the banking sector׳s performance can vary in a complex and non-monotonic way with the state of the economy, the degree of connectivity of the interbank market and the amount of information available to market participants on bank risks.     

Forecasting and trading on the VIX futures market: A neural network approach based on open to close returns and coincident indicators

Previous work has highlighted the difficulty of obtaining accurate and economically significant predictions of VIX futures prices. We show that both low prediction errors and a significant amount of profitability can be obtained by using a neural network model to predict VIX futures returns. In particular, we focus on open-to-close returns (OTCRs) and consider intraday trading strategies, taking into account non-lagged exogenous variables that closely reflect the information possessed by traders at the time when they decide to invest. The neural network model with only the most recent exogenous variables (namely, the return on the Indian BSESN index) is superior to an unconstrained specification with ten lagged and coincident regressors, which is actually a form of weak efficiency involving markets of different countries. Moreover, the neural network turns out to be more profitable than either a logistic specification or heterogeneous autoregressive models.     

Effects of foreign aid on the recipient country’s economic growth

We introduce an infinite-horizon endogenous growth framework for studying the effects of foreign aid on the economic growth in a recipient country. Aid is used to partially finance the recipient’s public investment. We point out that the same rule of aid may have very different outcomes, depending on the recipient’s circumstances in terms of development level, domestic investment, efficiency in the use of aid and in public investment, etc. Foreign aid may promote growth in the recipient country, but the global dynamics of equilibrium are complex (because of the non-monotonicity and steady state multiplicity). The economy may converge to a steady state or grow without bounds. Moreover, there are rooms for the divergence and a two-period cycle. We characterize conditions under which each scenario takes place. Our analysis contributes to the debate on the nexus between aid and economic growth and in particular on the conditionality of aid effects.     

Fiscal decentralization and public sector efficiency: evidence from OECD countries

This paper studies the impact of fiscal decentralization on public sector efficiency (PSE). We first use a theoretical framework that illustrates the two opposing forces that shape a non-monotonic effect of fiscal decentralization on PSE. Subsequently, we carry out an empirical analysis for 21 OECD countries, between 1970 and 2000. A country-level dataset is used to measure PSE in delivering education and health services and the new indices are regressed on well-established decentralization measures. Irrespective of whether PSE concerns education or health services, an inverted U-shaped relationship has been identified between government efficiency in providing these services and fiscal decentralization. This relationship is robust across several different specifications and estimation methods.     

Foreign investors and stock price efficiency: Thresholds,underlying channels and investor heterogeneity

This paper examines the relationship between foreign shareholding and stock price efficiency for Malaysian public listed firms over the 2002–2009 sample period. We use stock price delay as an inverse measure of price efficiency, and consider the speed of adjustment to local and global common factor information. The results show that foreign investors accelerate the incorporation of both types of common information into the prices of Malaysian stocks, mainly due to their superior skills in processing systematic market-wide factors. However, we find evidence of optimality in foreign shareholding, suggesting that the efficiency benefit disappears after foreign ownership exceeds a certain threshold level. Further analyses shed lights on the channels and moderating variables driving this non-monotonic relationship. Our disaggregate analysis on foreign investor heterogeneity shows that foreign investors who trade through nominee accounts are elite processors of public market-wide and firm-specific news in the Malaysian stock market.     

Market conditions and the effect of diversification on mutual fund performance: should funds be more concentrative under crisis?

This paper investigates the non-monotonic and non-linear effect of diversification on mutual fund performance. We apply a frontier-based efficiency measure, the stochastic frontier approach, to estimate fund efficiency and the benefit of diversification. The empirical results indicate that concentration strategy may not be appropriate for fund managers, and the benefit of diversification disappears or negatively affects performance when a fund holds too large a number of different stocks. Moreover, this paper examines whether market conditions moderate the relation between diversification and fund performance. The result shows that the benefit of diversification increases within low market return, high market volatility, and financial crisis, implying that the number of stocks needed to achieve a well-diversified portfolio increases under such market conditions.     

On revenue recycling and the welfare effects of second-best congestion pricing in a monocentric city

This paper examines congestion taxes in a monocentric city with pre-existing labor taxation. When road toll revenue is used to finance labor tax cuts, 35% of the optimal road tax in our numerical model does not reflect marginal external congestion costs, but rather functions as a Ramsey–Mirrlees tax, i.e. an efficiency enhancing mechanism allowing for an indirect spatial differentiation of the labor tax. This adds a quite different motivation to road pricing, since welfare gains can be produced even in absence of congestion. We find that the optimal road tax is non-monotonic across space, reflecting the different impacts of labor supply elasticity and marginal utility of income, which both vary over space. The relative efficiencies of some archetype second-best pricing schemes (cordon toll, flat kilometer tax) are high (84% and 70% respectively). When road toll revenue is recycled lump-sum, the optimal toll lies below its Pigouvian level. Extensions in a bimodal framework show that the optimality of using road toll revenue to subsidize public transport depends on the initial inefficiency in public transport pricing.     

Robust stochastic frontier analysis: a Student’s t-half normal model with application to highway maintenance costs in England

The presence of outliers in the data has implications for stochastic frontier analysis, and indeed any performance analysis methodology, because they may lead to imprecise parameter estimates and, crucially, lead to an exaggerated spread of efficiency predictions. In this paper we replace the normal distribution for the noise term in the standard stochastic frontier model with a Student’s t distribution, which generalises the normal distribution by adding a shape parameter governing the degree of kurtosis. This has the advantages of introducing flexibility in the heaviness of the tails, which can be determined by the data, as well as containing the normal distribution as a limiting case, and we outline how to test against the standard model. Monte Carlo simulation results for the maximum simulated likelihood estimator confirm that the model recovers appropriate frontier and distributional parameter estimates under various values of the true shape parameter. The simulation results also indicate the influence of a phenomenon we term ‘wrong kurtosis’ in the case of small samples, which is analogous to the issue of ‘wrong skewness’ previously identified in the literature. We apply a Student’s t-half normal cost frontier to data for highways authorities in England, and this formulation is found to be preferred by statistical testing to the comparator normal-half normal cost frontier model. The model yields a significantly narrower range of efficiency predictions, which are non-monotonic at the tails of the residual distribution.

     

Incorporating the Operating Environment Into a Nonparametric Measure of Technical Efficiency

The ability of a production unit to transform inputs into outputs is influenced by its technical efficiency and external operating environment. This paper introduces a nonparametric, linear programming, frontier procedure for obtaining a measure of managerial efficiency that controls for exogenous features of the operating environment. The approach also provides statistical tests of the effects of external conditions on the efficient use of each individual input (for an input oriented model) or for each individual output (for an output oriented model). The procedure is illustrated for a sample of nursing homes.     

A patent race in a real options setting: Investment strategy, valuation, CAPM beta, and return volatility

In this paper, we study financial properties of R&D intensive firms through a continuous-time real-options patent-race model. Numerical analysis in this study shows that intense competition drives a firm to invest more aggressively, which then pushes up its cost of capital and return volatility while introducing negative return correlation with its competitor. Furthermore, we find that a firm's position in competition has important impacts on its financial properties. For instance, a firm's cost of capital is a non-monotonic function of its relative position in the race. In addition, the relationship between cash flow uncertainty and investment can be negative when a firm is far ahead or far behind, or positive when firms are close in the race.     

Strategic interaction and aggregate incentives

We consider a model of interdependent efforts, with linear interaction and lower bound on effort. Our setting encompasses asymmetric interaction and heterogeneous agents’ characteristics. We examine the impact of a rise of cross-effects on aggregate efforts. We show that the sign of the comparative static effects is related to a condition of balancedness of the interaction. Moreover, we point out that asymmetry and heterogeneous characteristics are sources of non-monotonic variation of aggregate efforts.     

On the efficiency of the Cochrane-Orcutt estimator

Using analytic approximations, we reconcile some radically contradictory evidence and resolve an interesting paradox that occurs in a simple linear model with autocorrelated disturbances. In general, the behavior of conventional coefficient estimators is quite sensitive to the specification of the exogenous variables, or, equivalently, to whether the marginal efficiency or the conditional efficiency of the coefficient estimators is being compared.     

Infectious diseases and economic growth

This paper develops a framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a neo-classical growth model. There is a two way interaction between the economy and the disease: the incidence of the disease affects labor supply, and investment in health capital can affect the incidence and recuperation from the disease. Thus, both the disease incidence and the income levels are endogenous. The disease dynamics make the control problem non-convex thus usual optimal control results do not apply. We establish existence of an optimal solution, continuity of state variables, show directly that the Hamiltonian inequality holds thus establishing optimality of interior paths that satisfy necessary conditions, and of the steady states. There are multiple steady states and the local dynamics of the model are fully characterized. A disease-free steady state always exists, but it could be unstable. A disease-endemic steady state may exist, in which the optimal health expenditure can be positive or zero depending on the parameters of the model. The interaction of the disease and economic variables is non-linear and can be non-monotonic.     

A comparison of endogenous and exogenous timing in a social learning experiment

We experimentally investigate social learning in a two-agent prediction game with both exogenous and endogenous ordering of decisions on a continuous action space. We are first in comparing exogenous and endogenous ordering within one framework, which enables a direct comparison of both structures in terms of informational efficiency, strategic delay and welfare. More efficient observational learning leads to more accurate predictions in the endogenous setting and increases informational efficiency compared to an exogenous setting. However, strategic delay induces waiting costs that offset these benefits and lead to a parity of exogenous and endogenous ordering in terms of welfare results. Our results hold relevance for the efficient design of decision regimes in contexts characterized by continuous action spaces.     

Regulation and cost efficiency in the European railways industry

The objective of this article is to analyze European railways’ incentives to improve efficiency in the recent liberalization context. We build and estimate a structural model accounting for regulatory pressures faced by the firms. Our model includes demand equations, capacity constraints and a cost function, in which are specified an exogenous technical efficiency component and an endogenous cost reducing effort parameter. We find a significant positive effect of implementing the reforms on cost reducing activities, and a smaller cost of effort for firms choosing a more advanced separation of infrastructure from operation activities.