东亚的产业分工体系及其结构性不平衡

本文首先考察东亚区域内贸易及经济增长不稳定的几种表现,并对区域内以垂直产业内分工为主要特征的分工体系、以对中间品及部分资本品的"交叉需求"为基础的贸易结构作了分析;其次研究由区域内直接投资所形成的区域生产网络,指出由于处在区域垂直产业内分工底部的发展中经济体承受结构调整的能力有限、处在上游的经济体的生产(需求)对处在下游的经济体的波及效应不大、区域外对东亚所生产的最终消费品缺乏足够的有效需求,所以东亚区域生产网络及垂直产业内分工的稳定性较差,结构性不平衡难以纠正;最后着重研究东亚各经济体如何通过战略调整来加强区域垂直产业内分工的稳定性,并提出今后调整的基本方向。     

中国产品内分工的区域化与全球化北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文采用全世界范围内40个经济体作为总体样本,9个东亚经济体作为东亚区域性样本,并将总体样本按照收入水平划分为四组样本,分别对其进行回归检验。结果表明,中国的零部件进口仍然具有区域性特征,零部件出口则更趋于全球化。生产者服务进口促进了中国产品内分工的全球化发展趋势。从收入等级来看,区域性特征主要表现在中国对马来西亚和泰国的零部件进口方面。生产者服务进口则大大降低了中国与该收入等级零部件贸易的区域性特征。本文分析认为,中国零部件贸易的区域分布变化源于中国的加工贸易升级以及东亚生产网络的技术结构演变。由于生产者服务贸易等方面的原因,中国对东亚生产网络的依赖程度有所降低,未来中国的产品内分工将更加趋于全球化。     

东亚区域分工模式转变与中国国际分工地位提升

"雁行模式"衰落和以此为基础的东亚区域生产网络的兴起为中国提升其国际分工地位提供了机遇。本文证实了东亚区域生产网络正在形成并且中国已经参与其中,进而分析中国参与东亚区域生产网络分工的现状和挑战,认为中国必须利用东亚区域分工模式转变的机遇,从国家和企业两个层面采取措施提升其在区域内生产分工地位。     

东亚的产业分工体系及其结构性不平篌

本文首先考察东亚区域内贸易及经济增长不稳定的几种表现，并对区域内以垂直产业内分工为主要特征的分工体系、以对中间品及部分资本品的“交叉需求”为基础的贸易结构作了分析；其次研究由区域内直接投资所形成的区域生产网络，指出由于处在区域垂直产业内分工底部的发展中经济体承受结构调整的能力有限、处在上游的经济体的生产（需求）对处在下游的经济体的波及效应不大、区域外对东亚所生产的最终消费品缺乏足够的有效需求，所以东亚区域生产网络及垂直产业内分工的稳定性较差，结构性不平衡难以纠正；最后着重研究东亚各经济体如何通过战略调整来加强区域垂直产业内分工的稳定性，并提出今后调整的基本方向。     

中日韩三国贸易与分工的新趋势

全球金融危机使得支撑东亚繁荣的增长模式和区域生产网络的缺陷暴露无疑。在后危机时代以中日韩三国为代表的东亚贸易与分工结构调整已经悄然展开。本文首先考察了危机前后中日韩三国区域分工与贸易结构的最新变化趋势,其次研究了其对区域经济合作和东亚再平衡的影响,最后讨论了这种变革对FTA建设带来的启示。     

区域生产网络:东亚经济体的新分工形式

“雁行模式”已经不能描述东亚生产分工的特点,取而代之的是区域生产网络。本文从区域生产网络概念切入,进而从贸易角度对东亚区域生产网络进行实证研究,并对东亚各经济体在工业领域的相互依赖性作了分析。     

后危机时代东亚经济一体化下的中国角色分工研究CSSCI

文章通过分析东亚地区的经济数据,发现随着中国对东亚生产网络的不断融入,零部件、半成品和资本品的贸易得到迅速增长,中国在东亚生产网络中的分工地位不断提升,并且主要从事产品分工的中后期环节。另外,在同东亚地区的贸易形式上,中国表现出了产业内贸易的特征,尤其是在中间品和资本品类别中。通过对GL指数建立计量模型,我们可以发现中国同东亚区域内其他国家或地区的人均收入差距、科技水平差异以及经济自由度的差别,与其国家或地区间的产业内贸易水平负相关。并且,国家或地区经济自由度的影响作用很大,故从制度方面加快区域内部自贸区的建设对于加深东亚地区经济一体化程度十分重要。     

产品内分工、距离与生产网络区位优势——基于2000～2009年中国零部件进口的实证研究

本文从产品内分工理论出发,在"华盛顿苹果效应"的贸易成本假设下,研究地理距离对中间产品贸易的影响。文章选用2000～2009年中国对41个国家(地区)的零部件进口数据,通过面板引力模型方法进行实证分析。结果表明,来自高收入国家的零部件进口受距离影响较小,而来自低收入国家的零部件进口受距离影响较大。在生产网络中,距离因素对于其中各个环节存在不对称的影响。本文也由此说明低端生产环节之间的临近是东亚生产网络区位优势的主要来源。     

区域生产网络模式下的东亚经济一体化

区域多样性和高额贸易壁垒成本,决定了东亚经济一体化的非正式渠道。区域生产网络的出现,使得东亚形成了多层次的劳动分工,以日本为主导的跨国公司,与各地区合作者建立起生产贸易关系,不同发展水平的国家紧密地联系在一起。随着日本外国直接投资的增加和生产链的变强,东亚经济已经成为一个整体。然而,亚洲金融危机却暴露出过分依赖日本经济体的缺陷。新时期新形势下,中国应该发挥主体作用,推动东亚经济一体化进程。     

后危机时代东亚经济一体化下的中国角色分工研究

文章通过分析东亚地区的经济数据,发现随着中国对东亚生产网络的不断融入,零部件、半成品和资本品的贸易得到迅速增长,中国在东亚生产网络中的分工地位不断提升,并且主要从事产品分工的中后期环节.另外,在同东亚地区的贸易形式上,中国表现出了产业内贸易的特征,尤其是在中间品和资本品类别中.通过对GL指数建立计量模型,我们可以发现中国同东亚区域内其他国家或地区的人均收入差距、科技水平差异以及经济自由度的差别,与其国家或地区间的产业内贸易水平负相关.并且,国家或地区经济自由度的影响作用很大,故从制度方面加快区域内部自贸区的建设对于加深东亚地区经济一体化程度十分重要.     

中国在东亚地区贸易结构中的地位和作用——基于零部件贸易的研究

本文从零部件贸易的角度分析了中国在东亚贸易结构中的地位。文中计算了中国和其他东亚经济体1992～2005年的零部件贸易额,在大量事实数据的基础上得出结论:中国在东亚地区以零部件进口为主,而与区域外市场之间以最终产品出口为主。同时,随着中国经济逐渐融入到东亚地区的生产网络中,东亚地区的"三角贸易"模式发生了转变:中国成为东亚地区的出口平台,进口来自于区域内较发达经济体的中间产品零部件,进行装配加工后将最终产品销往区域外市场。     

服务联系成本、基础设施建设和东亚垂直分工:1992～2006

东亚因其迅速发展的国际生产网络而受到经济学界的广泛关注。本文从基础设施建设和服务联系成本的角度对东亚生产网络的成因展开研究。作者拓展了Limao和Venables的基础设施指数,并利用联合国贸易统计面板数据,在区分零部件和最终品贸易的情况下建立增广引力模型,对服务联系成本的影响进行细致梳理和量化分析。结果显示,基础设施的建设及服务联系成本的降低对东亚垂直分工体系的建立起到了巨大的促进作用。从促进出口的意义上看,基础设施建设有助于推动中国深入参与区域分工体系,并对未来恢复贸易增长产生积极效果。     

Impact of the US Economic Crisis on East Asian Economies： Production Networks and Triangular Trade through Chinese Mainland

This paper investigates the impact of the 2008 economic crisis on industries in East Asia. It attempts to identify the transmission mechanism and the magnitude of the impact of the crisis on industries in East Asia using the updated Asian international input–output table for 2008. The analyses reveal that the crisis significantly affected industrial output of the nine East Asian economies included in the present study. The economies that are deeply involved in production networks were affected most seriously. Our analyses also show that the impact was transmitted to East Asian industries through triangular trade, in which Chinese mainland imports parts and components from neighboring East Asian economies and then exports final products to the US and EU markets. Although such intricate production networks have improved the competitiveness of East Asian economies, they have also increased vulnerability to external shocks.     

Ties Binding Asia,Europe and the USA

We investigate changes in Asia's regional and global trade linkages and their influence on macroeconomic relationships among Asia, Europe and the USA. We first document changes in tripartite trade patterns and discuss stylized facts about East Asia's trade structure, with particular focus on the role of China. China plays a critical role in the rapidly expanding intra‐Asian trade as an assembly and production center that supplies final goods for the advanced economies. However, China's trade shares in final goods with East Asia and in parts and components with Europe and the USA are rising, suggesting that the region's production chains are becoming increasingly integrated into the global business network. Empirical results from a panel vector autoregression model generally confirm increasingly mutual macroeconomic interdependence among East Asia, Europe and the USA. The findings suggest a future role for Asia as an important trade partner and balancing power in the world economy.     

Measuring the Competitiveness of China's Processed Exports

China's surplus in processing trade remains large. Processed exports are final goods produced using parts and components that are imported duty free. Because much of the value‐added of these exports comes from East Asia, exchange rates throughout the region should affect their foreign currency prices. This paper presents data on value‐added exchange rates for processed exports over the 1993–2013 period and reports that they significantly affect exports. While the renminbi appreciated 36 percent between the beginning of 2005 and the end of 2013, exchange rates in supply chain countries depreciated. This has mitigated the effect of the RMB appreciation on the price competitiveness of processed exports.     

Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has gained in importance across Asia as a result of the rapid growth of Asian economies and their key role in the international fragmentation of production. This paper examines the level of IIT for 22 countries in East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia in 2003. IIT is measured as a multilateral trade-weighted index and is reported for ten different categories of goods in the primary and secondary sectors. In addition, the determinants of IIT are investigated using a Tobit regression model. The results indicate that ASEAN and the high-income countries in East Asia exhibit the highest levels of IIT, followed closely by China and India. R&D spending, openness, and a higher share of manufactured exports were found to promote IIT, while geographical distance and the difference in economic size had an adverse effect, especially for manufactured goods. The ASEAN free trade area was most prominently associated with IIT across all SITC categories. Central and South Asian regional trade agreements had a positive influence on IIT in primary products.     

东亚产业内贸易发展状况及原因分析

近年来,东亚地区产业内贸易发展十分迅速。本文对东亚10个主要经济体1992-2005年的产业内贸易发展状况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,产业内贸易已经成为东亚的主要贸易形式。在各类产品中,机械和运输设备(SITC7)的产业内贸易程度最高,且提高最快。产业内贸易发展的原因在于东亚地区产业内分工的不断深化以及基于生产环节专业化分工的产品零部件贸易的迅速发展。     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade in East Asia

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade, focusing on East Asia. Our findings are summarized as follows: first, intra-East Asian trade is discouraged by exchange rate volatility more seriously than trade in other regions. Second, one important source of the discouragement is that intermediate goods trade in international production networks, which is quite sensitive to exchange rate volatility compared with other types of trade, occupies a significant fraction of East Asian trade. Third, the negative effect of the volatility is greater than that of tariffs and smaller than that of distance-related costs in East Asia.     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.