A Market-Clearing Classroom Experiment

This paper describes a classroom experiment demonstrating the price mechanism and the clearing of markets in an endowment economy. Participants receive random endowments of two goods they may trade in order to maximize a given utility function. A market-clearing price is reached when no mutually beneficial trades are possible. The outcome is truly endogenous, with no reservation prices or willingness to trade imposed on the participants. A problem set allows the participants to study the equilibrium outcome analytically. The experiment can be used in intermediate micro- and macroeconomic courses.     

The welfare effects of the antebellum tariff: A general equilibrium analysis

In this paper a general equilibrium model of the United States in 1859 is developed and solved using the Scarf algorithm. Such a formulation allows the U. S. equilibrium to be computed for differing parameter specifications, so that the comparative static effects of policies involving even very complex interactions within the economy may be analyzed. In this case, the general equilibrium effects of the tariff in the United States are examined by comparing the actual, or initial, equilibrium with a hypothetical equilibrium in which the tariff has been eliminated. We find that the South was in fact injured by the tariff; the price of cotton and the return to slaveholding would have both risen significantly with its elimination. The principal beneficiary of the tariff was free labor. Removal of the tariff would have produced a decrease in the real wage and a slight fall in the return to capital. Overall, real income in the United States would have declined by 1.07 to 1.09% as a result of tariff elimination, or by between $44 and $45 million in current prices. Alternative parameter specifications may produce different results, ranging from the Metzler paradox in the case of very inelastic substitution in R.O.W. consumer demand to cases of increases in real income with tariff elimination in the cases of elastic substitution in either R.O.W. or U. S. consumer demand. A final caveat in judging the results should be inserted here. Factor endowments for 1859 are taken as fixed. The comparative static results here answer the question: What would have the 1859 United States been like if the tariff had been eliminated, allowing time for full adjustment? No dynamic effects are taken into account, such as adjustments in factor supplies. Consequently, the 1859 United States that had consistently followed a free trade policy would have looked quite different from the one that pursued a policy of protection and then eliminated the tariff, which we consider here.     

价格非平衡变化的机理：一个新凯恩斯主义的解释

本文构建了一个具有粘性价格的一般均衡模型，分析不同商品价格非平衡变化的现象。分析表明，当经济中不同商品的价格调整具有异质性时，货币冲击将导致灵活价格产品的价格水平变化超过货币增长率，表现为不同的商品价格调节快慢不同。货币冲击将拉动粘性价格产品的产出增加，表现为货币非中性。相对价格的变化使得消费支出发生结构性转移，导致灵活价格产品的需求下降。财政冲击也具有类似的效应，它将拉动价格不平衡上涨，并带动产出上升，同时会挤出消费。这种价格非平衡变化的机制很好的解释了我国2007—08年发生的所谓的“结构性通货膨胀”现象。     

我国"双顺差"产生的制度因素及化解途径

本文从"双顺差"的事实认定和成因分析中得出:从抽象掉制度背景的均衡分析来看,"双顺差"是资源配置低效率的表现,而从中国特定的制度非均衡约束来看,"双顺差"是中国经济具有国际竞争优势的体现。伴随着国内制度的均衡化过程,中国经济的国际竞争力也将从价格竞争力转换到创新竞争力。化解"双顺差"既需要出口退税、加工贸易政策调整等短期政策工具,也需要金融体制改革、政府竞争秩序重塑等长期政策工具。     

Dynamic relationship between China's inward and outward foreign direct investments

This paper studies the dynamic relationship of China's inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDI). It first identifies the key determinants of China's outward FDI (OFDI) in 172 host countries during 2003–2009 using a partial stock adjustment model. It finds strong evidence of dynamic adjustment in China's OFDI stock with an agglomeration effect. The dynamic adjustment and agglomeration effects are stronger in “high-tech” countries than in “low-tech” ones but indifferent in host country's resource endowments and income levels. The empirical results suggest that there exists a substantial adjustment cost in China's OFDI and that China's existing OFDI stock can gradually adjust toward its long-term equilibrium level, which is not only greater but also more volatile than the actual stock. Of particular interest is that we find a strong and positive relationship between lagged inward FDI (IFDI) and contemporaneous OFDI, implying that capital outflow from China has been partially induced by the countries which have invested in China.     

An empirical test of the Dixit-Norman approach to factor price equalization, using cointegration techniques

An Empirical Test of the Dixit-Norman Approach to Factor Price Equalization, Using Cointegration Techniques. — Factor price equalization (FPE) occurs when international trade equilibrium reproduces the integrated world equilibrium (IWE). This allows a straightforward test of a necessary condition for FPE provided one has an idea of the IWE. The author considers Germany as such for France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Cointegration estimation techniques are preferred to SURE, because of endogenity and nonstationarity of the variables. Using the coefficient restrictions, estimation is performed with French and Belgian factor endowments and German sector allocations. Finally, FPE is checked by testing appropriate coefficient restrictions. Concluding, the author finds no long-term trade equilibrium with FPE for the countries considered.     

Output price fluctuations,short-run profits and long-run industry size with input market equilibrium effects

Conclusions In this paper, input market equilibrium effects are incorporated into an analysis of output price fluctuations. In particular, it is shown that an increase (decrease) in output price may not necessarily lead to an increase (decrease) in the shortrun profit of a firm operating in a competitive product market. The firm's profit may not necessarily be convex in output price. Hence,ex-post flexibility in production does not guarantee the preference for price instability by risk-neutral firms. Finally, in longrun equilibrium, a mean-preserving spread in output price may increase or reduce the equilibrium number of firms.     

人民币实际有效汇率变动的中国产业结构升级效应

本文在劳动力市场动态均衡模型的基础上,通过构建厂商利润最大化模型,验证了汇率变动影响产业结构调整的传导机制;然后通过协整检验、误差修正模型检验和脉冲响应分析进一步对传导机制进行验证,并具体考察了1981～2010年度人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国产业结构调整的影响。研究结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率变动能够通过价格水平、对外贸易(出口和进口)和FDI 3条路径影响中国的产业结构调整。其中,价格水平和进口是两条重要路径,FDI的影响作用并不显著。人民币实际有效汇率升值能够促进中国产业结构的优化升级。     

What Determines China's Grain Imports and Self‐sufficiency? The Role of Rising Domestic Costs and Varying World Market Prices

China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.     

Vertical differentiation with non-uniform consumers' distribution

This note explores a vertical differentiation model with a continuous non-uniform consumers' distribution. First, a result concerning the finiteness property obtained with uniform consumers' distribution is generalized. Second, we prove an existence result of price equilibrium when the distribution is concave. Finally, we exhibit a counter-example to the existence of price equilibrium to show that the concavity assumption is not superfluous.     

禀赋来源和框架影响人们的分配行为吗——基于Dictator game的实验研究

文章运用Dictator game将禀赋的来源和不同的框架结合起来,研究这两种因素对人们分配行为的共同影响。禀赋的来源是指通过努力或者运气得到初始禀赋,不同的框架是指根据Dictator分配自己挣得的禀赋或者分配接受者挣得的禀赋,分为给予和拿取两个不同的框架。实验结果表明：1）禀赋的来源对人们的分配行为存在显著的影响;2）在通过努力挣得初始禀赋的情况下,强化了人们应得权利的意识,从而激发了框架对人们分配行为的影响;在靠运气得到初始禀赋的情况下,并没有这种强化作用,从而框架的影响并不显著。实验结果论证了微观行为会受社会情境的影响,即微观个体是受社会因素影响的适度社会化的人。另一方面,实验结果揭示了相对运气挣得的财富,人们更加认可通过努力挣得的财富,即在分配问题上人们更倾向于支持机会平等,更加支持勤劳致富。     

Structural adjustment, macroeconomic adjustment and poverty: A methodology for analysis

The object of this paper is to set out a methodology for analyzing the impact on the poor in less developed countries (LDCs) of adjustment to disturbances arising in the international sectors sectors of these economies. The methodology is not based on a detailed general equilibrium model of the whole economy, but instead focuses on the effects of the adjustment process on the sectoral composition of national output and expenditure. The paper provides a framework for the calculation of quantitative estimates of the impact of adjustment on poverty using household income and expenditure surveys currently available in LDCs. It is proposes the use of decomposable poverty indices as a tractable vehicle for calculating the impact of adjustment on overall poverty. This framework does require, however, reasonably disaggregated data on income distribution.     

Auctions with options to re-auction

A seller has one unit to sell using an English auction mechanism similar to internet auction markets, such as eBay. Bidders appear according to a random arrival process. The seller chooses a reserve price and duration for each auction. If the reserve is not met, the seller passes in the object and conducts another auction with a new, randomly chosen, set of bidders. We distinguish reserves that embody an institutional commitment not to sell below that price, from those that do not. In each case, we find the optimal reserve price and the optimal auction duration. Without price commitment, the equilibrium reserve is too low for allocative efficiency, whereas the optimal reserve with commitment is shown to be too high when the distribution of bidder valuations exhibits an increasing hazard rate. It might even be socially preferable to allow reserve price commitments. With respect to duration, a version of the Diamond paradox afflicts sellers who cannot commit to price; auctions facilitate valuable duration commitments that increase buyer competition and raise expected revenue. With commitment, price posting (equivalent to a zero-length auction) is the dominant selling mechanism.     

Collateral or utility penalties?

In a two-period economy with incomplete markets and possibility of default we consider the two classical ways of enforcing the honoring of financial commitments: by using utility penalties and by using collateral requirements that borrowers have to fulfill. First, we prove that any equilibrium in an economy with collateral requirements is also an equilibrium in a non-collateralized economy where each agent is penalized in their utility if his or her delivery rate is lower than the payment rate of the financial market. Second, we prove the converse: any equilibrium in an economy with utility penalties is also an equilibrium in a collateralized economy. For this to be true, the payoff function and initial endowments of the agents must be modified in a quite natural way. Finally, we prove that the equilibrium in the economy with collateral requirements attains the same welfare as in the new economy with utility penalties.     

反倾销出口价格调整研究

确定出口价格并进行相应调整是倾销认定的关键环节之一,调整方式有向上调整和向下调整两种,欧盟和美国在反倾销出口价格调整上的法律规定和实践各有不同,因而出口企业在对外贸易方式和国际贸易价格选择上应灵活应对。     

基于流动性风险的行为资产定价模型研究

从行为金融的研究视角，本研究建立了一种简洁的流动性风险均衡模型。本文将流动性因素纳入股票横截面收益的关键影响因素，构建了基于流动性风险调整的行为资产定价模型，利用欧拉方程确定了模型均衡价格。在一般均衡框架下。本文揭示了买卖差价、交易频率和市场效率等因素以流动性偏好形式对资产价格的影响机理。在连续双向拍卖交易机制下，本文利用仿真检验了均衡价格的形成过程．结果能够解释股票溢价等金融异象。     

The global macroeconomics of NAFTA

Previous empirical studies of NAFTA have commonly used trade models that do not allow international capital flows to adjust to changes in regional trade arrangements such as NAFTA. This paper explores the dynamic implications of NAFTA with particular focus on the short-run and longer-run adjustment of financial capital. This adjustment affects the global allocation of physical capital and therefore changes the growth prospects for a country such as Mexico. Our results suggest that Mexico and the world economy gain more from NAFTA than merely a static reallocation of production possibilities. In the short run, the adjustment of financial capital affects nominal and real exchange rates. This adjustment is far more important for the short-term allocation of trade flows than partial equilibrium adjustment of trade based only on changes in long-term price differentials.     

Taxation and the Environment–Health–Poverty Trap: A Policy Experiment Perspective

Under pressures related to economic growth and environmental protection, China is facing an increasingly severe “environment–health–poverty” trap risk. Fuel taxation is generally considered an effective policy to counter such a risk. Since 2009 China has raised the fuel tax rate many times to enhance tax reform. However, the effects of this policy remain unknown. Therefore, it is vitally important to estimate the impacts of China's current fuel taxation policy on environment, public health and the national economy. As the first attempt in existing literature on China, this paper builds a general equilibrium framework with the feedback effect of public health on economy. We find that that the fuel tax policy benefits the adjustment of the economic structure and improves human health; however, it is detrimental to economic growth, public welfare and price stability. In this sense, it plays a limited role in reducing the trap risk and might not be sustainable in the long term.     

理解我国名义利率传导机制有效性的时变特征——基于DSGE模型的理论分析与TVP-VAR模型的实证检验

文章采用DSGE模型与TVP-VAR模型对"利率调整→股价修复→经济复苏"这一政策传导路径的有效性进行理论模拟与计量检验,结果发现：理论上,名义利率调整可以有效平抑资产价格波动进而带动投资增加,从而稳定实体经济增长,但在实际传导过程中,各变量对利率变动和股价变动的反应却较为缓慢。此外,名义利率调整对股票价格的短期效应较为显著,而股价对实体经济的影响却是一个缓慢过程,两者对比鲜明,这从根本上揭示了虚拟经济变化较快而实体经济复苏缓慢的内生机理。因此,我国政府和中央银行应理性看待现阶段的实体经济下行风险,这并不意味着货币政策对股票市场和经济行为的良性指引作用已经失效,而是由于实体经济对政策调整的反应通常具有一定的时滞。     

Endogenous price leadership in a duopoly: Equal products, unequal technology

In the present paper we study endogenous price leadership in the context of a homogeneous product Bertrand duopoly model in which the firms have different, strictly convex cost functions. In such a framework it is well known that a simultaneous move price choice game does not have an equilibrium in pure strategies, but it has an equilibrium in mixed strategies. In the Stackelberg games with an exogenous price leader, we show that a pure strategy subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) always exists. Although the SPNE might not be unique, the payoffs are the same across all SPNE. Finally, we analyze the issue of endogenous price leadership using the continuous version of the Robson (1990) timing game. The result is unexpected. One would expect the more efficient firm to emerge as the endogenous price leader. This is not always true. In most cases the endogenous leader is the firm with the highest "threshold" price. However, we also provide conditions under which the more efficient firm emerges as the leader. Our paper essentially complements Yano (2001) , which is based on the Hamilton and Slutsky (1990) framework.