Modeling volatility and changes in the swap spread

We investigate the determinants of changes in U.S. interest rate swap spreads using a model that explicitly allows for volatility interactions between swaps of different terms to maturity. Changes in the swap spread are found to be positively related to interest rate volatility, to changes in the default risk premium in the corporate bond market, and to changes in the liquidity premium for government securities. Swap spread changes are negatively related to changes in the level of interest rates and changes in the slope of the term structure. We also find that there is a strong and significant volatility interaction among spreads for swaps of different maturities and that the process for the conditional variance of the spread is highly persistent across all maturities.     

Non-linear Gaussian sovereign CDS pricing models

Prior literature indicates that quadratic models and the Black–Karasinski model are very promising for CDS pricing. This paper extends these models and the Black [J. Finance 1995, 50, 1371–1376] model for pricing sovereign CDS’s. For all 10 sovereigns in the sample quadratic models best fit CDS spreads in-sample, and a four factor quadratic model can account for the joint effects on CDS spreads of default risk, default loss risk and liquidity risk with no restriction to factors correlation. Liquidity risk appears to affect sovereign CDS spreads. However, quadratic models tend to over-fit some CDS maturities at the expense of other maturities, while the BK model is particularly immune from this tendency. The Black model seems preferable because its out-of-sample performance in the time series dimension is the best.     

THE SLOPE OF THE TERM STRUCTURE OF CREDIT SPREADS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

In this article we analyze the slope of the term structure of credit spreads. We investigate the explanatory role of interest rate, market, and idiosyncratic equity variables that the recent empirical literature highlights as important determinants of credit spread levels. This study extends the analysis and assesses its effect on credit slopes for a sample of corporate bonds. We find that these factors affect credit spreads at short and long maturities in a significantly different way. A closer inspection of the credit spread slope also reveals that it is a useful indicator of the direction of changes in future short‐term credit spreads. This evidence has important implications for the trading and risk management of portfolios of bonds with different maturities.     

The term structure of interbank risk

We infer a term structure of interbank risk from spreads between rates on interest rate swaps indexed to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight indexed swaps. We develop a tractable model of interbank risk to decompose the term structure into default and non-default (liquidity) components. From August 2007 to January 2011, the fraction of total interbank risk due to default risk, on average, increases with maturity. At short maturities, the non-default component is important in the first half of the sample period and is correlated with measures of funding and market liquidity. The model also provides a framework for pricing, hedging, and risk management of interest rate swaps in the presence of significant basis risk.     

The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market

Financially distressed economies inside the European Union (EU) are being blamed for producing a general increase in borrowing costs. This article analyzes the channels of default risk transmission within the EU countries using the information content in the sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) market. We proceed in two directions. First, we test the existence of cross-border volatility effects between the central and the peripheral EU countries. Second, we explore the effect of distressed economies on the default and risk premium constituents of sovereign default swaps. We show a significant volatility spillover from distressed to central European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) economies. This causality pattern leads to a significant impact on the default swap risk premia. On average, the risk premium accounts for approximately 42% of central EMU spreads and 56% of the spreads for those countries outside of the EMU. The peripheral risk also affects the default component of central economies, although its impact is lower.     

Theory and evidence on the dynamic interactions between sovereign credit default swaps and currency options

Using sovereign CDS spreads and currency option data for Mexico and Brazil, we document that CDS spreads covary with both the currency option implied volatility and the slope of the implied volatility curve in moneyness. We propose a joint valuation framework, in which currency return variance and sovereign default intensity follow a bivariate diffusion with contemporaneous correlation. Estimation shows that default intensity is much more persistent than currency return variance. The market price estimates on the two risk factors also explain the well-documented evidence that historical average default probabilities are lower than those implied from credit spreads.     

Sovereign credit spreads

The paper develops a structural credit risk model to study sovereign credit risk and the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. The model features endogenous default and recovery rates that both depend on the interaction between domestic output fluctuations and global macroeconomic conditions. We show that sovereigns choose to default at higher levels of economic output once global macroeconomic conditions are bad. This yields to default rates and credit spreads that are substantially higher compared to normal times. We derive closed-form expressions for sovereign debt values and default times and focus on the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. As opposed to standard theories of sovereign debt, this paper’s structural model generates much richer default patterns and non-linearities through regime-shifts in the global macroeconomic environment. Moreover, changes in the global environment reveal the interconnectedness of the financial system.     

Pricing Sovereign Credit Risk of Poland: Evidence from the CDS Market

We analyze the market assessment of sovereign credit risk using a reduced-form model to price the credit default swap (CDS) spreads, thus enabling us to derive values for the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) from the quotes of sovereign CDS contracts. We compare different specifications of the models allowing for both fixed and time-varying LGD, and we use these values to analyze the sovereign credit risk of Polish debt throughout the period of a global financial crisis. Our results suggest the presence of a low LGD and a relatively high PD during a recent financial crisis.     

Single and joint default in a structural model with purely discontinuous asset prices

Structural models of credit risk are known to present both vanishing spreads at very short maturities and a poor spread fit over longer maturities. The former shortcoming, which is due to the diffusive behaviour assumed for asset values, can be circumvented by considering discontinuous asset prices. In this paper the authors resort to a pure jump process of the Variance-Gamma type. First the authors calibrate the corresponding Merton type structural model to single-name data for the DJ CDX.NA.IG and CDX.NA.HY components. By so doing, they show that it also circumvents the diffusive structural models difficulties over longer horizons. Particularly, it corrects for the underprediction of low-risk spreads and the overprediction of high-risk ones. Then the authors extend the model to joint default, resorting to a recent formulation of the VG multivariate model and without superimposing a copula choice. They fit default correlation for a sample of CDX.NA names, using equity correlation. The main advantage of our joint model, with respect to the existing non-diffusive ones, is that it allows full calibration without the equicorrelation assumption, but still in a parsimonious way. As an example of the default assessments which the calibrated model can provide, the authors price an FtD swap.     

Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging

This paper analyzes determinants of country default risk in emerging markets, reflected by sovereign yield spreads. The results reported so far in the literature are heterogeneous with respect to significant explanatory variables. This could indicate a high degree of uncertainty about the “true” regression model. We use Bayesian Model Averaging as the model selection method in order to find the variables which are most likely to determine credit risk. We document that total debt, history of recent default, currency depreciation, and growth rate of foreign currency reserves as well as market sentiments are the key drivers of yield spreads.     

Capital structure,credit risk,and macroeconomic conditions

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit risk and dynamic capital structure choice. We begin by observing that when cash flows depend on current economic conditions, there will be a benefit for firms to adapt their default and financing policies to the position of the economy in the business cycle phase. We then demonstrate that this simple observation has a wide range of empirical implications for corporations. Notably, we show that our model can replicate observed debt levels and the countercyclicality of leverage ratios. We also demonstrate that it can reproduce the observed term structure of credit spreads and generate strictly positive credit spreads for debt contracts with very short maturities. Finally, we characterize the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the pace and size of capital structure changes, and debt capacity.     

Bank loans during the 2008 quantitative easing

We examine the effect of quantitative easing on the supply of bank loans. During the Fed’s quantitative easing programs, lending banks reduced relatively more loan spreads, offered longer loan maturities, provided larger loans, and loosened more covenants for firms whose long-term bond ratings were below BBB and were lower than those with investment-grade bond ratings. Furthermore, we find that new bank loans in this period were associated with a reduction in a firm’s value and an increase in default risk. These results indicate that banks took greater risk during the 2008 quantitative easing by relaxing lending standards to relatively riskier borrowers.     

An intensity model for credit risk with switching Lévy processes

We develop a switching regime version of the intensity model for credit risk pricing. The default event is specified by a Poisson process whose intensity is modeled by a switching Lévy process. This model presents several interesting features. First, as Lévy processes encompass numerous jump processes, our model can duplicate the sudden jumps observed in credit spreads. Also, due to the presence of jumps, probabilities do not vanish at very short maturities, contrary to models based on Brownian dynamics. Furthermore, as the parameters of the Lévy process are modulated by a hidden Markov chain, our approach is well suited to model changes of volatility trends in credit spreads, related to modifications of unobservable economic factors.     

The effect of Fed monetary policy regimes on the US interest rate swap spreads

This paper analyzes the asymmetric impacts of various economic shocks on swap spreads under distinct Fed monetary policy regimes. The results indicate that (a) during periods of aggressive interest rate reductions, slope of the Treasury term structure accounts for a sizeable share of the swap spread variance although default shock is also a major player. (b) On the other hand, liquidity premium is the only contributor to the 2-year swap spread variance in monetary tightening cycles. (c) The impact of default risk varies across both monetary cycles and swap maturities. (d) The effect of interest rate volatility is generally more evident in loosening monetary regimes.     

How Much of Bank Credit Risk Is Sovereign Risk? Evidence from Europe

We examine European banks' exposures to systematic and country‐specific sovereign risk. We organize our investigation around a multifactor affine credit risk model estimated on credit default swap data of different maturities. During the 2008–15 period, about one third of banks' credit risk is sovereign. However, banks strongly differ both in the magnitude and type of their sovereign exposures. Measures of indirect exposures, such as bank size and return on equity, capture these cross‐sectional differences better than measures of direct exposures. Furthermore, the properties of the distress risk premiums turn out to be important to understand the effect of sovereign risk on bank funding costs.     

Market conditions,default risk and credit spreads

This study empirically examines the impact of the interaction between market and default risk on corporate credit spreads. Using credit default swap (CDS) spreads, we find that average credit spreads decrease in GDP growth rate, but increase in GDP growth volatility and jump risk in the equity market. At the market level, investor sentiment is the most important determinant of credit spreads. At the firm level, credit spreads generally rise with cash flow volatility and beta, with the effect of cash flow beta varying with market conditions. We identify implied volatility as the most significant determinant of default risk among firm-level characteristics. Overall, a major portion of individual credit spreads is accounted for by firm-level determinants of default risk, while macroeconomic variables are directly responsible for a lesser portion.     

Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads

An important research question examined in the credit risk literature focuses on the proportion of corporate yield spreads attributed to default risk. This topic is reexamined in light of the different issues associated with the computation of default probabilities obtained from historical default data. We find that the estimated default risk proportion in corporate yield spreads is sensitive to the ex ante estimated term structure of default probabilities used as inputs. This proportion can become a large fraction of the spread when sensitivity analyses are made with respect to the period over which the probabilities are estimated and the recovery rates.     

The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises

We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners’ currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.     

The chicken or the egg? A note on the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and credit default swaps

This note provides the first empirical assessment of the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and their associated credit default swaps (CDS). We use data for the Southern European countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) that found themselves with a problematic public sector in the dawn of the recent financial distress. We find that CDS prices Granger-cause government bond spreads after the eruption of the 2007 sub-prime crisis. Feedback causality is detected during periods of financial and economic turmoil, thereby indicating that high risk aversion tends to perplex the transmission mechanism between CDS prices and government bond spreads.     

SERIAL ISSUE EVIDENCE FOR THE RELATION BETWEEN THE RISK STRUCTURE AND MATURITY: A DECOMPOSITION METHODOLOGY

The risk structure of the interest rates literature shows that coupon effects can cause changes in yield spreads as maturity lengthens. These effects make it difficult to empirically isolate the default risk component of the spread for coupon-paying bonds. Attempts to calculate zero-coupon risk structures suffer from the relative scarcity of zero-coupon corporate bonds. We show that yield spreads for coupon-paying bonds that are identical except for default risk decompose into a relative duration component, a premium discount coupon component, and a default component. We present closed-form solutions for measuring the first two components so that the default risk portions can be isolated as residuals. We further present an empirical application of the decomposition metrics for sixteen exchange-traded serial issues and nonparametrically examine the relation between the default premia and maturity. We find various maturity relations.