Explaining import quality: The role of the income distribution

We examine a generalized version of Flam and Helpman [Flam, H., Helpman, E., 1987. Vertical Product Differentiation and North-South Trade. American Economic Review, 77, 810-822.] in which consumption prices for quality differentiated goods are rising in household income. We provide propositions for aggregating this relationship across heterogenous households to map cross-country differences in income distributions to cross-country differences in import price distributions. The theoretical predictions are examined and confirmed using disaggregated data on prices of traded goods and micro data on household income from the Luxemburg Income Study. Country pairs with more similar income distributions have more similar import price distributions, whether similarity is measured by 1st-4th moment statistics, population and consumption shares within world income and product price quantiles, or income and price dis-similarity indices.     

城乡不同收入群体通胀差距对收入、消费的影响——基于中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的实证分析

文章基于中国季度宏观经济模型,对我国城乡不同收入群体所面临的收入差距、通胀差距及其对总需求的影响进行了实证分析.通过构建消费行为方程,分析了总量CPI上涨对不同收入群体CPI、收入及消费支出的影响.研究结果表明,CPI的上涨对农村居民的冲击大干城镇居民,对低收入群体的冲击大于高收入群体.城乡及城乡不同收入群体面临的通胀差异会扩大不同收入群体的实际收入差距,削弱我国居民对通胀的耐受力.同时,抑制全社会居民消费需求扩张,会使最终消费对经济增长的贡献率持续下滑.因此,抑制通胀并有效降低通胀的社会成本,不仅要控制通胀的总量水平,而且要缩小通胀在不同收入群体之间的差距.即旨在控制总量通货膨胀的政策要兼顾缩小城乡居民的通胀差距.在制定宏观调控政策时,要在控制通胀与追求增长之间作出权衡,要坚决将增长速度控制在9％.为有效抑制通胀差距所产生的社会成本,必须充分重视通货膨胀对不同收入阶层尤其是农村低收入阶层收入的影响,采取有力措施保障低收入阶层的收入增长;要进一步提高最低工资标准和制造业劳工工资水平,保障城乡低收入阶层收入和消费水平,增强中低收入阶层抵御通胀侵蚀收入的能力.     

Housing Development and Urbanisation in China

Rapid urbanisation and rising income have led to a strong demand for housing in urban China. However, housing development has been distorted by speculation, income inequality and lack of government support for low‐cost houses. In recent years, house prices become so high, making the vast majority of urban residents unable to afford, whereas rich families are able to buy many and leave them vacant. Income inequality is a major cause for rising house prices, which, in turn, exaggerates income inequality further. This vicious relationship has caused social tension between the rich and the poor and unhappiness among the middle‐ and low‐income groups. This paper discusses the factors responsible for the housing bubble in China and recommends appropriate policies to resolve this problem.     

Housing wealth effect in emerging economies

In this paper I estimate the impact of changes in real and financial wealth on private consumption for a panel of 17 emerging economies from Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. Households' consumption, income and the two measures of real and financial wealth – proxied by house and stock market prices – are found to be difference-stationary and co-integrated; by means of recent econometric techniques for heterogeneous panels, i.e. the pooled mean group estimator, inference is drawn about the long- and short-run relationships between the variables of interest. The main result of the analysis shows that both real and financial wealth positively affect households' consumption in the long-run, with the elasticity of housing wealth being larger than that of stock market wealth. Moreover, there is also a significant short-run adjustment from income, stock prices and house prices on consumption, i.e. consumption adjusts to its long-run relationship with lags. When the model is run for the two groups of countries separately, the long-run impact of an increase (decrease) in house prices is generally higher in Central and Eastern European economies with respect to Asian ones, which make them more vulnerable to further adverse housing market developments.     

Keeping Up With the Joneses: Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing

Household debt relative to disposable income increased from 60% in 1980 to 104% at the end of 2003. ‘Buying on credit’ has become so popular that an increasing number of firms generate more profit from financing than from selling their products. In this paper, we show that rising income inequality has substantially contributed to increased consumer borrowing. Income inequality affects all components of total household debt, but the impact is strongest on non-revolving debt (installment loans), which is used to finance the purchase of consumer durables. We argue and provide evidence that the income inequality effect on consumer borrowing is a result of conspicuous consumption. Rising income inequality has forced households with smaller income gains to use debt to keep up their consumption level relative to households with larger income gains.JEL Classification: D12, G29, J31, M30     

Rural families food intake behaviour in relation to livelihood diversification,income differences and family size

The livelihood diversification significantly contributes to the family income having effect on food varieties' consumption in rural families of different sizes. This study investigated the food intake differences among rural families considering different income levels and family sizes. Moreover, barriers faced by the rural families to increase the consumption of food varieties were also analysed. A total of 200 rural families were selected through multistage purposive and random sampling techniques in the Punjab province of Pakistan and were directly interviewed and categorized first into low and high livelihood diversified families. The food groups were derived by assigning individual food to conventional food group taxonomies, and two‐way ANOVA (4 (income groups) × 3 (family size groups) was separately conducted for low and high livelihood diversified families. The income instability, prices of food items, market distance and storage were perceived as barriers for increasing food consumption. The high livelihood diversified families significantly and regularly consumed more food items than low diversified families. The rural households both in low and high livelihood diversified family categories having low income and high family size consumed less expensive food items. The regular consumption of fruits, bakery products, and livestock and dairy items was greatly associated with high income and small family size. One of the most remarkable findings of the multivariate multiple regression model was the households belonging to the lowest income group were significantly lowering the consumption of livestock and dairy food items as the family size increased from small to large family size. The interaction effect was highly associated with per capita income because the consumption of food items increased with the rise in income irrespective of the family size. However, family size groups showed different patterns of food intakes with different income levels. Government agencies should assist rural households to diversify their income portfolios for better nutrition.     

Financial events and coping strategies of households

A survey was sent to a group of households selected at random in six counties to identify financial events and coping strategies of households in the current economic climate. The purpose of the study was to provide information on the occurrence of major financial events and coping strategies to be used in the development of outreach educational programmes in the financial area. Additionally, information was obtained on the types of financial information the respondents would find helpful as well as preferred delivery methods. The inability to save money was a problem for the majority of households, with job-related events such as losing a job causing the most financial difficulty for the households. Many of the households indicated a desire for information on investments, retirement planning, estates and wills. It was clear from the findings that the methodologies used to teach financial information need to be geared towards learning at home.     

收入不确定性对城乡居民消费支出影响的比较研究——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

基于2000—2009年的面板数据,在测度中国城乡居民收入不确定性的基础上,比较研究了城乡居民不同类别收入的不确定性对居民分类消费支出的影响,结果表明:各省城乡居民各类收入均出现了不确定性;不同省份城乡居民各类收入的不确定性有所差异,各省内部城乡居民收入的不确定性也不相同;从全国的视角看,各类收入的不确定性对总体消费造成了结构性影响,农村居民收入的不确定性大于城镇居民收入的不确定性。     

World trade patterns and prices: The role of productivity and quality heterogeneity

This paper analyzes the role of product quality and labor efficiency in shaping the trade patterns and trade intensities within and across two groups of countries, the developed and richer North and the developing South. Recent empirical literature identifies two groups of evidence — the product lines evidence on different export strategies and sources of competitiveness across product groups and countries, and the aggregate trade flows evidence on a positive relation between the income per capita and both export and import prices (also conditional on the exporter). We attempt to provide a theoretical background for these findings and focus on the North–South productivity differences in a four country North–South trade model with two dimensions of firm heterogeneity. Differences in the firms' product quality and cost efficiency impose different competitiveness sources when entering more difficult markets and result in the observed export and import prices and consumption bundles across the rich and poor countries.     

What factors are influencing tea consumption among Chinese urban residents? An empirical study

Using primary data collected from a questionnaire survey in 12 cities in China, we set up a model to analyze the influencing factors of Chinese urban residents' tea consumption. Three groups of factors are considered in the model, i.e., demographic and personal characteristics, economic factors and consumption habits. Research findings indicate that tea consumption is significantly impacted by gender difference, personal income, consumption atmosphere and habitual factors. This has important policy implications for tea marketing. First of all, it is essential to develop more tea products that cater to the needs of urban females while at the meantime securing the steady growth of tea consumption among males. Second, in light of the consumption discrepancies between families, areas and occupations, differentiated marketing strategies should be created with an emphasis on cultivating and taking advantage of consumption atmosphere in the society. In addition, income disparities call for diversified tea products with affordable prices. It is also suggested that educational programs on tea consumption be advocated to promote the consumption frequency and quantity of tea both in China and in other countries.     

浙江省农民收入增长影响因素分析 ——基于CHFS调查数据

缩小城乡收入差距并研究其影响因素,是实现乡村振新战略的必然要求。利用中国家庭金融调查中心数据,对农户收入影响因素进行实证分析。发现耕地市值、劳动力数量、受教育水平、金融素养对农民收入增长起到较显著的正向影响;而农村家庭持有金融资产以及年龄对其总体收入增长起到负面影响,其负作用一定程度上来源于农户金融素养匮乏所导致的家庭资产结构配置不合理。应该持续推进农村居民素质教育工作,促进家庭资产的合理配置,应对快速发展的复杂金融市场所带来的金融风险,进一步有效促进农民合理增收,缓解城乡收入差距过大等问题。     

Spatial behaviour of rural consumer households in highly developed economies. Survey results for Western Germany

This contribution attempts to identify effects of residential location of rural family households on their economic behaviour. Economic behaviour is understood to be reflected in the total spectrum of income and allocation of household resources. A holistic approach must go beyond activity on the labour and consumer markets and include non-market (‘informal’) activities of household members, taking into account domestic production of goods and services, interaction within social networks, the use of public commercial infrastructure, etc. The cost of living depends, among other things, on patterns of consumption, on regional price levels for consumer breadbaskets, as well as on costs involved in reaching public and commercial points of distribution. These factors result themselves from the interplay of economic forces giving rise to identifiable ‘economic territories’ and ‘market areas’ and ultimately to observable consumptive behaviour and ‘activity spaces’ of individual private households. Since data was available only for our rural survey households, comparative analysis of locational aspects was limited to consumption expenditures for which data could be found in administrative statistics for households in urban and periurban areas. The rural survey sample was found to have a higher average level and a different structure of expenditures when compared with their non-rural counterparts. At the same time, a preliminary effort was made in our own rural survey sample to determine the importance of non-market consumption for rural households. This included household consumption of domestic self-services (‘housework’), the utility value of owner-occupied dwellings, do-it-yourself production of substitutes for commercial goods and services, and exchanges within social networks. Results of this initial investigation of non-market elements of the household economy indicated that they were very important for the household's level-of-living and that they had a potential for compensating inequalities due to different degrees of access to market resources. Household strategies for optimizing their resource allocation to both market and non-market consumption were also examined. In general, ‘objective’ criteria and ‘subjective’ assessments by the survey households with respect to living conditions in rural Western Germany were found to give a positive image of rural life; however, differences in resource allocation strategies for market consumption between urban and rural households having been confirmed above, the question remains for future research about possible locational differences in household acquisition and use of non-market resources.     

政府公共文化支出对家庭文化消费的影响研究——基于中国家庭追踪调查的分析

政府在促进文化消费中发挥重要作用。基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年和2016年的家庭经济数据,利用Tobit模型实证分析了政府公共文化支出对家庭文化消费的影响,以及该影响在城镇和农村家庭、不同收入水平家庭中表现出的异质性。研究表明:政府公共文化支出增加有助于提高家庭文娱支出占比,且在缩尾处理和更换关键变量的稳健性检验中,核心结论仍然成立;但是,政府公共文化支出对文化消费的挤入效应主要局限于城镇家庭及中低收入家庭,对农村家庭、低收入和中高收入家庭的刺激作用不显著。应继续扩大文化事业财政支出规模,优化公共文化服务资源配置,重点扶持农村文化娱乐消费,同时提高文化产品和服务供给质量。     

新疆城镇居民收入与消费行为关系研究

运用计量经济学的方法,选取1995——2009年的有关统计数据,对新疆城镇居民收入与新疆城镇居民消费行为进行分析、结果表明新疆城镇居民人均可支配收入和人均消费性支出之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系。误差修正模型表明城镇居民人均生活费支出的变化不仅取决于可支配收入的变化,而且还取决于上一期生活费支出对均衡水平的偏离．系统存在误差修正机制。     

警惕国际化陷阱

本文认为,我国目前已经走到国际化陷阱的边缘。2007年价格全面上涨,既有需求拉动型的价格上涨,也有成本推动型的价格上涨,但都是国际因素拉动的结果。要安全跳过国际化陷阱,第一,应该启动国内市场,核心是启动消费,关键是提高居民收入,其中最主要的是提高居民个人收入在国民收入分配中的比例、劳动收入在初次分配中的比例、财产性收入在居民收入中的比例、农民收入及欠发达地区居民的收入。第二,需要形成一个新的思维体系,我国企业必须调整发展战略,从成本优势转向技术优势。     

中国房地产财富效应测度的实证研究

中国居民的财富特征与发达国家居民的财富特征明显不同。利用中国1996—2007年房地产价格和居民消费的季度数据,建立房地产财富效应模型,对中国房地产财富效应进行测度,计算结果表明:随着中国经济增长和居民收入的增加,房地产财富对居民消费的影响不断增强。房地产价格变化是居民消费增加的Granger原因,居民消费的增加是城镇居民可支配收入上升的Granger原因。无论从长期还是短期分析,中国房屋价格变动都会给居民消费带来财富效应。通过脉冲响应函数分析可知,房地产价格的正向冲击将对居民消费产生正效应,导致居民消费增加,从而验证了中国房地产财富效应的存在。     

Use of microcredit for household income and consumption smoothing by low income communities

This paper discusses findings of a study that investigated income, savings and consumption patterns of low income people and critical factors that influence the use of microcredit—a form of small instant loans targeted for low income people—for household income and consumption smoothing. The sample of the study consisted of households from low income communities living in a lower‐middle income country—Sri Lanka. It was found that microcredit borrowers were using the loans for purposes that can be identified as income and consumption smoothing, which is beyond the ideas and intended practice of microcredit. The findings suggest that the consequences of using microcredit for income and consumption smoothing could be costly for households and the society at large.     

Effects of family livelihoods on household resource allocation in highly industrialized society

This contribution attempts to identify effects of the type of livelihood of rural family households on their economic behaviour. Economic behaviour is understood to be reflected in the total spectrum of income and allocation of household resources. A holistic approach must go beyond activity in the labour and consumer markets and include non-market (‘informal’) activities of household members, taking into account domestic production of goods and services, interaction within social networks, the use of public and commercial infrastructure, etc. Our study of resource income and allocation as a function of the household's livelihood undertook a comprehensive investigation of both market and non-market resources of the sample households. Results for full- and part-time farming family households, as well as for employee and self-employed households in the non-farm sector were compared. All survey households were comprised of four persons with an ‘intermediate’ level of family income living in disadvantaged rural areas. Apparent, but yet unquantified differences between these socio-professional groups, e.g. with regard to time-inputs into gainful activity, to regularity of income, and to joint accounting of the family and the firm/holding in self-employed households, had lent support to the hypothesis that there are marked differences in resource income and allocation strategies between these socio-professional groups. Survey results revealed, in quantitative terms, large workloads involved with self-employment, fringe benefits from dependent employment and, on the other hand, side-benefits from self-employment, such as the use of business stocks for private consumption. Compensatory effects of the disposition and use of non-market resources with regard to lower incomes was observed, as well as considerable differences between the socio-professional subsamples in strategies for and amounts of capital formation and social security. Furthermore, productive roles within the household, and the household's interaction with its social networks and other public and semi-public entities differed strongly between the socio-professional groups. Variance analysis disclosed that the findings on the above described differences in resource income and allocation between the socio-professional subsamples were statistically highly significant.     

Die Armen zahlen mehr — auch für Energie Ein Nachtrag zu Scherls Beitrag in ZVP, 2, 1978/2

Zusammenfassung Untersuchungen über die Struktur des privaten Energieverbrauchs in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland ergeben, daß einkommensschwache Haushalte durchgängig mehr bezahlen für dieselben Energietrager als Haushalte mit höherem Einkommen. Darüber hinaus läßt sich zeigen, daß sie mehr aufwenden müssen für dieselbe Energiequalitat, selbst wenn man gleiche Preise am Markt unterstellt. Die Gründe dafür liegen in der relativ ungünstigen haushaltstechnischen Ausstattung and in institutionellen Benachteiligungen einkommensschwacher Haushalte. Auf der anderen Seite beanspruchen einkommensschwache Haushalte mehr Primärenergie für die Bereitstellung gleicher Energiedienstleistungen im Haushalt: sie kosten die Volkswirtschaft mehr.

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The poor pay more — at least for energy

Not only do low-income groups have less money to spend, they also get less for it than higher-income families. Ölander and Scherl, among others, have discussed such a relationship between income level and buying efficiency (Olander), as measured by the price-amount-quality ratio realized for a given commodity. However, as Scherl concluded, there is almost no conclusive direct empirical proof for this income effect, neither in the U.S.A. nor in the Federal Republic of Germany.A study on patterns of household energy consumption in West Germany strongly supports the hypothesis for this area of consumption. It can be shown that (a) high and low-income households pay different prices for the same amounts of secondary energy (kinds of energy bought by households); (b) high and low-income households pay different prices for the same quality of secondary energy (thermal content of secondary energy), even if equal prices for different kinds of energy are assumed; (c) high and low-income households pay different prices for the same quality of useful energy (thermal content of effectively used energy), even if equal prices for different kinds of energy and for the same quality of secondary energy are assumed.The discussion of variables intervening between income and the efficiency of energy consumption emphasises a number of technical and institutional factors associated with income. Technical and institutional factors shaping consumption patterns deserve more attention than they have been accorded hitherto in consumer energy research, and possibly in other areas of consumption, too. The importance of these factors suggests that conventional instruments and strategies of consumer policy, concentration on the middle-class consumer and on consumer information, may be insufficient, at least in the case of energy consumption and conservation.Finally, the hypothesis is put forward, and some supporting data for domestic energy consumption are provided, that the social costs of consumption are inversely related to income. It is argued that greater emphasis of consumer policy on improving directly the lot of low-income families is warranted if this thesis — The poor cost more — also holds true for other areas of consumption.

     

关于当前农村市场开拓问题的思考

在当前圆际金融危机对我国经济影响不断加深的形势下,要高度重视开拓农村市场,这是扩大内需的迫切要求.但受农村居民收入水平、社会保障制度、流通体系、消费环境、金融服务等因素制约,农村市场开拓困难重重.要搞活农村市场,需要从增加农民收入、完善社会保障体系、健全流通体系、优化消费环境、加强金融服务等方面采取系统的对策.