我国欠发达地区农户小额信贷需求现状及其影响因素研究——来自1812户农家调查结果的实证分析

小额信贷是我国农信社提供金融服务的重要方式,在缓解农村资金供求矛盾方面起着重要作用。本文通过对我国欠发达地区农户的调查,考察农户小额信贷特征,分析我国农村信用社农户小额信贷影响因素。研究发现,农户自身特征、家庭经济状况、农户对小额信贷的认知程度三类基本因素对农户小额借贷需求与决策行为产生重要影响。     

农户小额信贷运行机制及其评价与分析——以湖北省ZX市为例

本文通过对湖北省ZX市的农户问卷调查,并运用计量经济模型.测算出了农村信用社农户小额信贷对农户收入增长的影响力,定量分析了两者的互动过程.计量结果显示,农村信用社农户小额信贷能够促进农户收入增长,中央银行可以通过窗口指导意见,加大支农再贷款投入力度,促进农村信用社信贷支农,并以此为基础实现农业与农村金融业的良性互动.     

农户小额信货运行机制及其评价与分析——以湖北省ZX市为例

本文通过对湖北省ZX市的农户问卷调查,并运用计量经济模型,测算出了农村信用社农户小额信贷对农户收入增长的影响力,定量分析了两者的互动过程。计量结果显示,农村信用社农户小额信贷能够促进农户收入增长,中央银行可以通过窗口指导意见,加大支农再贷款投入力度,促进农村信用社信贷支农,并以此为基础实现农业与农村金融业的良性互动。     

对贵州省和甘肃省定西地区农户小额信贷的调查

近年来，我国对贫困地区农户小额信贷的支持力度逐渐加大，资金来源渠道也在逐渐拓宽，尤其是人民银行支农再贷款政策实施后，农村信用社全面推广农户小额信用贷款，对西部地区的农户脱贫起到了不可或缺的作用。近期，我们对西部地区的贵州省和甘肃省定西地区开展农户小额信贷的情况进行了实地调查。     

农村小额信贷业务绩效的实证研究——基于广东茂名的数据

小额信贷的业务绩效体现小额信贷业务的可持续性,农村信用社经营小额信贷业务关注其能否改善其经营效益,即通过开展农户小额信贷业务能否提高农村信用社的利润水平及改善各项风险指标。本文基于茂名农村信用社改革试点监测考核系统的统计数据,采用面板线性回归模型,通过固定效应和随机效应模型的估计,对农村信用社农户小额信贷的绩效评价进行实证检验,讨论农户小额信贷对农村信用社的经营效益所产生的影响。研究结果表明,农村信用社的小额贷款业务可以有效提高农村信用社的利润水平,同时降低农村信用社的不良贷款率,具有较好的业务绩效。     

对欠发达地区农村信用社推广农户小额信贷的调查

农户小额信用贷款是发展中国家向农村贫困人口实行的以数额小、期限短、分期偿还为特征的金融服务方式,是一种服务于经济及社会能力较差的弱势群体,适应我国农村贫困户的经济、社会和文化特点的金融制度安排。实践证明,这种新型的信贷政策,有效地解决了正规金融体系难以辐射的弱势群体的资金需求问题,在很大程度上缓解了我国农村多年存在的资金投入不足的矛盾,使贫困地区的农民逐步摆脱了贫困,并走上了发展之路。为了了解经济欠发达地区农村信用社推广农户小额信贷的情况,笔者以点带面,对府谷县小额农户贷款推广情况进行了专题调查。一、当…     

农村小额信贷可持续发展问题研究

90年代初,小额信贷作为国际上公认的缓解贫困、促进就业的一种金融创新在引入我国,而从2000年农村信用社成为推广农户小额信用贷款主力军开始,小额信贷业务迅速发展,然而,由于国情不同,我国农     

小额农户贷款的发放与使用应趋规范

小额农户贷款自开办以来，日益成为农村信用社信贷与收益增长中的亮点。它既为农户开展各种农业生产，发家致富解决了资金不足问题，也给当前处境困难的农村信用社通过信贷增量化解存量风险，从而最终走上良性发展的道路提供了一条有效的途径，但是在实际操作中，由于这样或那样的原因，使小额农户贷款发放出现了一些亟待解决的问题，突出表现在。     

贫困农户贷款难问题研究

农村金融是我国农村经济发展的重要保证,农户融资是发展农村金融的关键。小额信贷在引入我国之后,因其能解决农户融资和消除贫困而得到政府的支持。然而,国内外的研究和调查显示,小额信贷逐渐偏离了贫困户。事实上,农村信用社作为目前开展农村小额信贷业务的主要金融机构,一直存在着放大户、垒大户、＂扶富不扶贫＂的现象。为了解决贫困农户贷不到款和贷款难的问题,本文分析制约贫困农户贷款的因素,并给出应对的措施。     

农村小额信贷信用风险的博弈分析

农村小额信贷是农村信用社开展农村金融工作的主要业务。农村小额信贷作为信贷支农的重大政策措施,在解决农户贷款难题、帮助贫困农民发展生产、促进农民增收等方面发挥了不可替代的作用。然而必须清醒地认识到,信用风险是制约我国农村小额信贷可持续发展的主要风险,有效控制信用风险对农村小额信贷业务的发展具有决定性意义。本文运用博弈论的基本分析方法,模拟农村信用社与借款农户的客观情况,构建农村信用社与借款农户的博弈模型,以此探求影响小额信贷信用风险的主要因素,并提出了风险防范措施。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.