CPI Quality Adjustment and Productivity Growth: Railway Services in Japan

In recent years quality adjustment of price indices has been vigorously explored and the hedonic regression method has become popular in official statistics. In service sectors, however, the current CPI seems not to have been successfully adjusted to accommodate quality changes. In this paper I focus on the railway industry in Japan, where quality change is a vital factor in the measurement of price indices and productivity. Using hedonic regressions to adjust CPI railway fares, the paper suggests that there may be a significant degree of upward bias in the current CPI railway fares. Also, this leads to the results that the total factor productivity (TFP) of the Japanese railway industry, which is calculated by using the newly adjusted CPI as a deflator, has been improved contrary to previous research on this issue.     

ASSESSING THE QUALITY ERROR IN OUTPUT MEASURES: THE CASE OF REFRIGERATORS*

This paper computes new indexes of output for refrigerators, using hedonic methods to adjust for quality change. The hedonic technique is applied in a new way (it is used to make quality adjustments to prices before they are used in the index), and the results are compared with those from methods used in previous hedonic investigations. There are three major findings. (1) Overall (1960–1972), our hedonic deflated output series rise more rapidly than conventional measures, because the price indexes used for deflation rise more slowly. (2) The output measures fluctuate more than do output measures produced by conventional methods, because adding hedonic quality adjustments to WPI indexes moves them up in some years and down in others, and the resulting adjustments to the output series were positively correlated with changes in output. (3) Applying methods used in previous studies produces larger adjustments to the published indexes, suggesting that some of the differences noted in previous studies between hedonic indexes and official published indexes are related to computational methods, not to quality adjustment.     

Welfare effects of quality change and new products in the Japanese mobile telecommunications market: 1995–2001

This paper presents a simple framework based on a discrete choice model to assess the welfare effects of quality change and new products. Such a framework is shown to be useful where the hedonic approach is impracticable. This framework is applied to the Japanese mobile telecommunications market during the period 1995–2001. The estimated qualities for mobile telecommunications services in Japan are shown to have improved rapidly during this period, indicating the importance of quality change in the welfare gains of consumers relative to price change, and the need to adjust quality change in the construction of price indexes. However, it is also proven, at least in the earliest stages, that the effect of new services on consumer welfare was limited.     

Religion and economic growth: was Weber right?

Evidence of falling wages in Catholic cities and rising wages in Protestant cities between 1500 and 1750, during the spread of literacy in the vernacular, is inconsistent with most theoretical models of economic growth. In The Protestant Ethic, Weber suggested an alternative explanation based on culture. Here, a theoretical model confirms that a small change in the subjective cost of cooperating with strangers can generate a profound transformation in trading networks. In explaining urban growth in early-modern Europe, specifications compatible with human-capital versions of the neoclassical model and endogenous-growth theory are rejected in favor of a “small-world” formulation based on the Weber thesis.     

Alternative Land-Price Indexes for Commercial Properties in Tokyo

The System of National Accounts (SNA) requires separate estimates for the land and structure components of a commercial property. Using transactions data for the sales of office buildings in Tokyo, a hedonic regression model (the “builder’s model”) was estimated and this model generated an overall property price index as well as subindexes for the land and structure components of the office buildings. The builder’s model was also estimated using appraisal data on office building real estate investment trusts (REITs) for Tokyo. These hedonic regression models also generated estimates for net depreciation rates, which can be compared. Finally, the Japanese government constructs annual official land prices for commercial properties based on appraised values. The paper compares these official land prices with the land prices generated by the hedonic regression models based on transactions data and on REIT data. The results reveal that commercial property indexes based on appraisal and assessment prices lag behind the indexes based on transaction prices.     

Quality-corrected price indices: the case of the Dutch new passenger car market, 1990–1999

Market dynamics and technological developments constitute a major challenge to the proper measurement of the price evolution of durable goods. In this study, hedonic methods are used to estimate quality-corrected price indices of new passenger cars in the Netherlands, 1990–1999. Use is made of a huge set of price, quantity and quality information about 11,000 car models, obtained from different sources. During the observation period the nominal price level of all available car models increased about 20% on average, while the shares of car models with airbags, tinted glass and power steering increased from almost nothing to about 90%. Matched model price indices and the official CPI for new passenger cars, which partially account for quality-adjustments, estimate the price increase to be equal to 10.6–14.2% respectively 11.2% for the 1990–1999 period. By contrast, the hedonic Fisher-like price indices based on the preferred annually estimated brand-weighted semi-log hedonic model, lead to price changes varying from +?2.3% to ??3.4% (depending on the choice of weight variable, and the use of fixed or varying reference periods in the index construction) and thereby fall 8.9 to 14.6 percentage points below the official figures, over the period 1990–1999. The pooled adjacent-years model holds an intermediate position with a predicted quality-corrected price decrease of 1.8% over the observation period, which is 13.0 points below the CPI.     

Sources of Japanese competitiveness and growth

This paper examines the properties of a dynamic equilibrium model focused on sectoral specialization and dynamic competitiveness in international trade. Factors of competitiveness and growth were broken down into three parameters on the export side, two parameters on the import side, and two parameters on the productivity side. Furthermore, the relation between the growth rate of productivity and the wages index is examined. In the first period, 1960–1972, the rapid change in the structure of Japanese production and the composition of Japanese exports paralleled the rapid structural change in the international market and the rapid change in the prices of Japanese exports, stimulating Japanese exports to the international market. The engine of economic growth here is a significant technological change along with improvement of labor and capital productivity. In the second period, 1973–1996, factors such as improving the quality of production, cumulative experience, and the flexibility of price elasticity were crucial factors in increasing Japanese exports. Despite the decline in growth rate of technological change, the engine continued to grow and was supported by increasing the value of the economies of scale.     

Optimal freeware quality in the presence of network externalities: an evolutionary game theoretical approach

New software products often face difficulty in achieving market penetration. A potential remedy is to offer a freeware version of the software to encourage initial adoption and establish a larger user base for the software, thereby increasing the commercial version's value to adopters in future periods. However, to avoid complete cannibalization of the commercial version, the freeware version's quality must be sufficiently low and the price of the commercial version must not be too high. We model the effect of these two decision variables, price and freeware quality, on the adoption of software using static and evolutionary game theory.     

Measuring inflation in the soviet machinebuilding sector, 1960–1973

This article examines the behavior of machinery wholesale prices in the Soviet Union during the 1960–1973 period. Many Western experts hypothesize that Soviet enterprises escape fixed prices by making cosmetic changes in established products in order to raise their prices—the so-called new-product-pricing phenomenon. The hedonic technique—the use of regression analysis to examine the connection between price change and quality improvements in machinery items—is used in the study to test for the presence of this phenomenon and to determine what impact, if any, it had on machinery price levels over the period studied.     

Debt, growth and inflation in large European economies: a vector auto-regression analysis

This paper attempts to empirically test the hypothesis that whether debt matters in the EU. This has been performed by examining the potential adverse effects of debt in large European economies on investment, inflation and growth. Using the hybrid cointegration and vector autoregressive models, the findings, based on the period 1970–97, suggest that debt causes significant adverse effects on investment, but its impact on growth is not clear-cut. Moreover, debt appears to be inflationary in most cases in the long run, though produces no clear short run pattern on inflation.     

Using stochastic frontier models to mitigate omitted variable bias in hedonic pricing models: A case study for air quality in Bogotá, Colombia

Hedonic pricing models use property value differentials to value changes in environmental quality. If unmeasured quality attributes of residential properties are correlated with an environmental quality measure of interest, conventional methods for estimating implicit prices will be biased. Because many unmeasured quality measures tend to be asymmetrically distributed across properties, it may be possible to mitigate this bias by estimating a heteroskedastic frontier regression model. This approach is demonstrated for a hedonic price function that values air quality in Bogotá, Colombia.     

Technology transfer in United States universities

This paper examines the role of offices of technology transfer (OTT) in 12 U.S. universities in 1998 in commercializing research results in the form of patents, licenses, and start-ups of new companies. We study the organization and place of OTTs within the university structure, the process of technology transfer, and the staffing and funding of the office. Data were collected through a mail questionnaire followed up through telephone interviews. We also conducted a statistical analysis of data for 170 U.S. universities, hospitals, and research institutes for the period 1991–1996. Our findings suggest that technology transfer from universities to the commercial sector needs to be understood in its broader context. The primary purpose of a technology transfer program is for the university to assist its researchers in disseminating research results for the public good. Success in this endeavor is only partially reflected in income generated for the university or the number of business start-ups. The degree of success depends not only on the nature of the interface between the university and the business community but also on the receptivity in the surrounding community as well as the culture, organization, and incentives within the universities themselves.     

Estimating Quality‐adjusted Price Changes: Method and Application to VCRs

This paper uses scanner data to generate estimates of quality‐adjusted price changes for video‐recorders. We use hedonic regressions to derive estimates of the changing worth of each quality component. These are then applied to weighted changes in the mix of quality attributes of products to derive estimates of quality‐adjusted price (QAP) changes. The data source used is electronic‐point‐of‐sale (EPOS) scanner data that are available for a wide range of goods. This study provides an example of how such methods can be more widely applied. The estimates of QAP changes correspond to constant‐utility, (hedonic) cost‐of‐living indexes defined in economic theory as the ratio of expenditure functions at constant utility allowing for changing prices and characteristics of goods. This method is proposed as an improvement on the existing direct method , which takes its estimates directly from the coefficients associated with 'time dummies' in a hedonic regression. We finally undertake a matching process, akin to that used by statistical offices, and compare the results. Direct comparisons with RPI estimates and these hedonic approaches are not easy since the approaches use quite different data sets. Our replication of a procedure akin to that used for the RPI on the scanner data set provides insights into sources of potential bias.     

Knowledge of growth and the growth of knowledge

The central theme of this address is the complicated relationship between the growth of the economy and the growth of knowledge. This theme is explored with the help of a single concept “restless capitalism” which is used to capture the idea that capitalism in equilibrium is a contradiction in terms precisely because the growth of knowledge cannot be meaningfully formulated as the outcome of a constellation of equilibrating forces. This theme is explored through a discussion of growth accounting, the relationship between innovation, markets and institutions and, as an example, the development of innovation in the field of ophthalmology. We also discuss some pioneering contributions made by Simon Kuznets and Arthur Burns to the discussion of evolutionary growth. From this Schumpeterian perspective we see the economy as an ensemble not an aggregate entity and so see more clearly the importance of microdiversity in the relationship between growth of knowledge and growth of the economy.     

The old and the new: the evolution of polymer and biomedical clusters in Ohio and Sweden

This paper examines the rapid growth of the polymer-based and biomedical clusters in Ohio and Sweden – two regions of similar size and with similar traditions undergoing similar industrial restructuring. Two issues are addressed: First, why has growth been so strong in these particular clusters, i.e., can we identify the sources of the growth and dynamics in these sectors? Second, why do these two clusters differ in Ohio and Sweden in terms of size, level and type of activity, number and composition of actors, size structure of firms and growth patterns over the last couple of decades? In particular, what is the role of public policies as well as cultural, historical, and geographic factors? Our main conclusions are (1) that there is strong path dependence in both clusters in both countries, and (2) that the key to rapid development is a high absorptive capacity combined with rapid diffusion to new potential users. Our policy discussion addresses these issues.     

A Schumpeterian model of equilibrium unemployment and labor turnover

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of equilibrium unemployment by combining an endogenous growth model with a variant of equilibrium search theory. The analysis offers two explanations for the causes of widening wage gap between skilled and less-skilled labor, and rising unemployment rate among the less skilled: technological change in the form of an increase in the size of innovations or skilled labor saving technological change in R&D activity. In addition, the model identifies two distinct effects of faster technological progress on the aggregate unemployment rate. First, it increases the rate of labor turnover and therefore increases the aggregate unemployment rate – the creative destruction effect. Second, it creates R&D jobs, which offer workers complete job security, and consequently reduces the aggregate unemployment rate – the resource reallocation effect.     

Do export and technological specialisation patterns co-evolve in terms of convergence or divergence? Evidence from 19 OECD countries, 1971–1991

Several researchers looking at the development of international export specialisation patterns have shown that there is a weak tendency for OECD countries to exhibit decreased levels of specialisation. This finding is in contrast to findings made by other authors, who found increasing technological specialisation. The first aim of this paper is to investigate whether these contradictory findings are due to a `real world' phenomenon, or whether the explanation is purely technical, by comparing the development of export specialisation to specialisation in terms of US patents, using the same methodology and level of aggregation. The second aim is to analyse the extent to which countries and sectors display stable specialisation patterns over time, also both in terms of exports and in terms of technology. The paper confirms that the OECD countries tend in general to become less specialised in terms of exports. The evidence is less conclusive with regard to technological specialisation, as the results are mixed in the sense that just about half of the countries tend to exhibit increased levels of specialisation, while the other half tend to exhibit lower levels of specialisation. In terms of country and sectoral stability of specialisation patterns, it can be concluded that both trade specialisation and technological specialisation patterns are path-dependent. In comparison, however, trade specialisation patterns are more stable than are technological specialisation patterns.     

Chained,exact and superlative hedonic price changes: estimates from microdata

Scanner data are used to calculate chained, exact (and superlative) hedonic price indexes for television sets. The data source is available for a wide range of goods, the application providing an example of how this method can be more widely applied. The indexes correspond to constant utility, hedonic cost-of-living indexes. The approach improves on the existing direct method, which takes its estimates directly from the coefficients on time dummies in a hedonic regression. It also improves on the matched model method used by statistical agencies. The differences between actual price changes and exact hedonic quality-adjusted price changes are found to be substantial. Base-period and current-period weighted exact hedonic indexes are similar, thus providing good approximations to a superlative index. Estimates from the direct, dummy variable approach were compared to the superlative indexes. The disparities between the results argue for caution in the use of the direct, dummy variable approach to estimating quality-adjusted price changes.     

QUANTITY OR QUALITY: THE IMPACT OF LABOUR SAVING INNOVATION ON US AND JAPANESE GROWTH RATES, 1960–2004*

This article deals with both theoretical and empirical analyses of the post‐war (1960–2004) growth for the USA and Japan. We investigated three factors contributing to growth: the growth rates of capital, labour and labour saving innovation. In Japan, the growth rate of the labour force has been much less important than its quality improvement—i.e. labour saving technical change—while in the USA, the growth rates of labour and population have contributed more than their quality improvement. The policy implication is that Japan's declining population can be compensated for by additional quality improvement of the existing labour force.