Foreign debt,global liquidity,and fiscal sustainability

We empirically investigate fiscal sustainability by comparing countries in the different economic groups with a dataset covering 180 countries during the period from 1980 to 2015. As the OECD countries have higher international debt ratio than other countries, they have higher probability to be exposed to global risk factors. Non-OECD countries turn out to be more fiscally solvent than OECD countries due to their limited access to international financial market. However, we also find that better access to international liquidity increases fiscal sustainability within the sample of OECD countries, while it does not improve the fiscal solvency in case of non-OECD countries.     

我国财政可持续性的实证分析：1952—2007

1998年以来,我国连续7年实施积极的财政政策。2008年,为了应对世界金融危机,我国又重启积极的财政政策。积极的财政政策在促进经济增长的同时也使得财政赤字显著增加和国债规模显著扩大,这就不可避免地引起人们对我国财政可持续性的担忧。文章根据政府跨时预算约束理论,利用协整方法对1952—2007年我国财政可持续性的状况进行实证分析。结果显示：从长期来看,1952—2007年,我国的财政是可持续的;从短期来看,1952--1978年、1979—1994年,我国的财政也是可持续的;但1995—2007年,我国的财政收支之间不存在协整关系,财政赤字政策不可持续。     

Who bears the burden of social insurance? Evidence from Japanese health and long-term care insurance data

Using the society-managed health insurance data, which is cross-sectional time-series and covers 1670 health insurance societies for seven years (FY1995–2001), we found for the first time in Japan that the majority of the employers' contribution to health insurance is shifting back onto the employees in the form of wage reduction. On the other hand, we cannot find such evidence for the contribution to long-term care insurance using a two-year (FY2000–2001) panel data set. The difference can be theoretically explained by how employees value the contribution relative to social security benefits they enjoy. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 565–581.     

中国个人账户养老金制度的协调机制研究

如何规划一种既能提供合理养老保障水平、又具有财务可持续性的个人账户养老金制度,已成为继"空账"之后急需解决的问题。本文通过构建具有可继承性的个人账户精算模型,发现当前个人账户制度无法使养老金水平与财务支付能力达到协调。为此,本文在不违背产权私有性和正向激励原则的前提下,通过调整养老金增长率参照系和继承方式对当前个人账户制度进行了改进。实证分析表明,改进模型不仅提高了养老保障水平,而且更具协调性、稳健性和可操作性。     

The evolution of the productivity dispersion of firms: a reevaluation of its determinants in the case of Japan

This paper contributes to the literature that empirically analyzes the evolution of productivity dispersion at the firm level and its determinants. We investigate the case of Japanese firms by using a firm-level panel dataset taken from a large-scale administrative survey for the years 1994–2003. We confirm that there was indeed an overall increase in productivity dispersion. Moreover, we find that the introduction of information and communication technologies (ICT) decreased the within-industry labor productivity dispersion, contrary to what has been found for some other countries. On the other hand, we find evidence of a significant and positive impact of internationalization on productivity dispersion.     

Fiscal deficits, public debt, and government solvency: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper discusses different empirical tests of public sector solvency and applies them to a sample of 18 OECD countries. Under the maintained hypothesis that the government solvency constraint needs to be imposed, these tests develop from the idea of verifying whether the intertemporal budget constraint of the public sector would be satisfied (a) if the fiscal and financial policy in the sample had been pursued indefinitely and (b) if the relevant macro and structural features of the economy were stable over time. If solvency is not supported by the empirical evidence, a change either in the policy or in the relevant macro and structural variables (growth, inflation, interest rates, demographic factors) must occur at some point in the future. Among the G-7 countries, public sector solvency seems a serious issue in Italy, whereas it does not appear to be a problem in Germany and Japan. The evidence for the United States is mixed. Problems of sustainability of the current path of fiscal policies are also present in Belgium, Ireland, The Netherlands, and Greece.     

人口结构变迁与经常账目失衡

世界范围内持续多年的经常账目失衡并不鲜见,以往研究多关注汇率和净出口的关系,而忽视了经常账目余额的另外一种属性——本国在外国的储蓄。本文尝试从人口结构变迁的角度对这一问题给出新的解释。本文通过构建包括幼年抚养比和老年抚养比的世代交替模型,理论分析和预测了：幼年抚养比上升会降低储蓄率、增加投资率,从而减少经常账目余额;而老年抚养比下降会提高储蓄率,增加经常账目余额;试图填补人口结构对经常账目影响的理论空白。接下来,本文利用1990年至2011年全球110个国家的强平衡面板数据进行实证分析,在静态和动态模型下均得到了与理论预测相一致的稳健结果。根据实证结果进行定量分析,本文发现中国抚养比的变化可以解释1990年至2007年间经常账目余额占GDP比重16.6%的变动。     

延长退休年龄能提高社会养老保险基金的支付能力吗?

本文通过构建我国社会养老保险基金支付能力的精算模型,研究了延长退休年龄后,基金支付能力的变化情况。结果表明,延长退休年龄不一定能够增加养老保险基金的支付能力,因为延长退休年龄后,虽然缴费期限延长了,缴费收入增加了,但养老保险基金支出也增加了,最终结果就是不确定的,要受到很多因素的影响,包括利率、社会平均工资增长率、在职职工工资增长率、养老金增长率和死亡率分布等等。如果要通过延长退休年龄来提高养老保险基金的支付能力,应全面分析各种相关因素的共同作用,否则适得其反。     

Differences in corporate saving rates in China: Ownership,monopoly, and financial development

Using the data of the listed non-financial companies from 2003 to 2012, this paper conducts a firm-level empirical analysis to reveal the determinants that lead to differences in saving rates of different enterprises in China. Particularly, we explore the discrepancies in the Chinese enterprises' saving rates from the new perspectives of ownership type, monopoly status, and financial development. We find that only some financial indicators of a firm, including the size and the long-term solvency ability, have direct impact on its saving rate. Besides, the difference in the saving rates between private firms and state-owned firms is insignificant while monopolies have higher saving rates than non-monopolies. Most importantly, financial development generally reduces a firm's saving rate and the impact is independent on its ownership type and monopoly status. Moreover, financial development decreases the influence of a firm's short-term solvency and profitability on its saving rate.     

A Global Shortage of Safe Assets: A New Triffin Dilemma?

A number of researchers have claimed that the international monetary and financial system faces a Triffin dilemma in a new fiscal form. In particular, there is said to be a dilemma between satisfying the world’s demand for safe assets and maintaining the solvency of the issuer of such safe assets. On one horn of the dilemma, global deflation threatens if highly creditworthy sovereigns like the U.S. Treasury do not satisfy emerging market demand. On the other horn, a loss of creditworthiness of the issuer threatens as its government debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio rises to satisfy fast-growing global demand. This article suggests that the analogy drawn with the original Triffin dilemma is not tight since the safe asset dilemma does not have a clear cross-over point into instability. This paper casts empirical doubt on the claim that such a dilemma exists. On the demand side, emerging market central banks have actually turned to selling safe assets in the last several years, as against forecasts for an ongoing precautionary accumulation. U.S. Treasury yields have actually risen above those on generic private instruments, the opposite of the predicted widening spread of risky over safe yields. On the supply side, a substantial fraction of U.S. dollar reserve assets is invested in instruments other than U.S. Treasury securities. Reserve managers find safe assets among obligations issued by supranationals, national agencies and even large banks, which enjoy varying degrees of governmental support. Thus, demand for safe assets looks less secular than cyclical and the supply of safe dollar assets does not depend solely on U.S. fiscal deficits.     

Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy

We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40–47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two “regimes” using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is “active” (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is “passive” (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable.     

Asset or burden? Impact of children on parents’ retirement

If parents receive financial support in retirement from their children, having more children with higher earning power may expedite their retirement. On the other hand, retirement may be delayed if parents are burdened with educational expenses for children. We empirically investigate how the quantity and the education of children influence their parents’ retirement decisions. Due to the endogeneity of childrearing in the retirement decision, we employ the instrumental variable method with twin births and child deaths as instruments. We find that parents retire earlier when they have more children and better educated children and they receive a significant amount of transfers from children.     

从历史角度看世界经济失衡:文献综述

本文从历史的角度对世界经济失衡做出综述,通过当今世界经济失衡与历史上五次失衡的纵向对比,以及当今美国经济失衡与近三十年世界各国失衡的横向对比,找出世界经济失衡的一般规律。对于当今失衡形成了两种观点:崩溃论、调整论。笔者认为,当今失衡能否维持取决于美国能否保持快速的经济增长。如果美国经济出现下滑、世界各国不能协调解决失衡,必然会引起世界经济动荡,在危机来临之前需要中国做好经济结构的调整。     

Shareholder Empowerment and Board of Directors Effectiveness*

We develop a model to examine implications of empowering shareholders to replace directors. We find that shareholder empowerment functions as a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it can weaken ineffective boards' incentive to hold on to their position. On the other hand, it can induce both effective and ineffective boards to behave strategically to avoid a potential dismissal. As a result, empowerment does not necessarily increase firm value; in some cases, empowerment exacerbates the agency problem it is intended to address. Giving shareholders the power to set board compensation (have a “say on pay”) can mitigate these problems. However, even when empowerment benefits (harms) the shareholders, firm value may decrease (increase). Finally, we discuss empirical and policy implications of the main findings.     

Fiscal sustainability and solvency: theory and recent experience in Indonesia

A major challenge for Indonesian economic policy makers is to avoid the recurrence of conditions that could trigger a new economic crisis. One of the important dimensions of this challenge will be to conduct fiscal policy in a way that is sustainable, given the level of interest rates and the rate of growth of the economy. This paper synthesises various approaches to the measurement of fiscal sustainability that have appeared in the economic literature, relates these measures to the fundamental concept of fiscal solvency, and applies the framework to Indonesia over the period 1991–2003. The domestic and foreign debt positions of the central government are treated separately, to capture the influence of exchange rate changes on the relative costs of domestic and foreign borrowing. The empirical analysis indicates that Indonesia has met the fiscal sustainability criterion in recent years, except when the rupiah has depreciated heavily.     

Banking in the early stages of industrialization a preliminary survey

Abstract

The functions performed by financial institutions, and the specific manner in which they perform them, vary according to the circumstances of time and place. Many factors—political, economic, perhaps even geographic—affect their character. It is easy, for example, to recognize what we might call ‘national styles’ in the financial structures of different nations, due largely to political and other historical circumstances more or less unique to each nation. On the other hand, the character of the economic demand for their services will go far toward determining the character of the institutions. Specifically, the demands placed on the financial sector by an economy undergoing rapid industrialization will differ from those in both highly industrialized economies and agrarian, pre-industrial economies, with consequent implications for differences in financial structure and function. It should also be recognized, of course, that the manner in which financial institutions perform their functions constitutes an important determinant of the rate and direction of economic growth.     

The Land Tenure System and its Saving and Investment Mechanism: The Case of Modern China*

The new land tenure system represents a compromise between efficiency and equality. On the one hand, the privatization of land use rights has eliminated the type of free-rider problem observed under the commune system; on the other hand, egalitarianism reduced the transaction costs when land was first allocated to farmers after the dismantling of the commune system. However, this study shows that the main challenge to the efficiency and sustainability of the system is the task of developing a voluntary savings and investment mechanism to fill the vacuum left by the compulsory one that the commune system once had. The frequent reallocation or readjustment of village land, as is required by the system in response to the relative population changes among households, makes farmers feel insecure in their land use rights and agricultural investment, and leads to distortion in their investment and consumption.     

高校学报编辑的工作应激及应对策略

影响我国高校学报编辑心理状态的主要因素来自于工作应激源。个体在高应激状态下如果缺乏良好的应对方式,心理受损的危险程度是普通人群的两倍,而成熟的应对方式有助于工作者积极理性地面对工作应激。根据CPT理论,抵抗工作应激的措施,一方面可采取降低对应激源危险性的评估,另一方面应重视应对方法的了解及应用。全面提升高校学报编辑的心理素质,需要学报出版单位和编辑个人采取多种措施,掌握更多专业的、科学的工作应激应对资源。     

Conflict heterogeneity in Africa

The economic development literature widely concurs that conflicts have adverse economic consequences that contribute to poverty, disinvestment and lower human capital leading to widespread inequality and lower economic growth. As such, understanding the nature of conflict has been an important focus for political leaders, policymakers and researchers alike. However, the existing literature does not typically distinguish between the effects of conflict determinants on conflicts by type of actor or aggressor (i.e. state, group and civilian-based). Using panel data analysis for 46 African countries from 1997 to 2017, and a comprehensive geo-referenced Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) conflict dataset, we find evidence of variation in the determinants' effects on conflicts by actor types. For the full sample of countries, we find that military expenditure decreases civilian-based conflicts; globalisation increases both state- and civilian-based conflicts while state fragility increases group-based conflicts. On the other hand, income per capita increases all three types of conflicts. At regional level, we find variation in the effects of military expenditure and globalisation on state- and civilian-based conflicts. However, we find little variation in the effects of the determinants on group-based conflicts across the regions. The findings highlight the nuances in conflicts by actor types and their causes which need to be accounted for when formulating conflict resolution policies.     

关于我国粮食产量波动缺口的研究--基于HP滤波的计量及政策分析

1978年以来，我国粮食产量一直处于波动之中。负向波动、异常波动年份多于正向波动、正常波动年份；连续负向波动持续时间较长，连续正向波动持续时间较短，且交替出现。粮食产量的波动方向和缺口大小，内在地取决于粮食播种面积、耕地受灾面积及上一年粮食产量的波动方向和幅度。作为外在因素，政策缺陷在一定程度上助推了粮食产量的波动，要确保我国粮食产量稳定增长，必须强化政策创新，一方面切实加强耕地和粮食生产者利益保护，稳定粮食播种面积，另一方面加大防灾减灾力度，将粮食灾害降低到最小程度。