The Impact of Groundfish Imports on the United States Fishing Industry: An Empirical Analysis

This paper presents an economic analysis of the issue of United States-Canadian groundfish trade. Using an econometric model the parameters of consumer demand for United States domestic and imported groundfish products are estimated. The model is then used to evaluate the potential impact of countervailing duties leveled against imported fish products. It is found that while such duties would likely increase consumer prices for fish in the United States the fisherman's prices would not increase proportionately. The net protective effect to the United States harvesting sector of such tariffs thus seems minimal.     

面向可持续的渔业补贴:共同渔业政策进入新一轮改革

本文为德国不来梅大学欧洲环境法规研究中心Till Markus发表在Marine Policy 2010年第34卷1117-1124页文章的中译文。2009年4月22日,欧洲委员会发布了"共同渔业政策改革绿皮书",指出该政策的一个矛盾,一方面对渔业领域的公共财政资助是重要的,另一方面这些资助常常与其他共同渔业政策(Common Fishery Policy,CFP)目标,特别是减少生产能力过剩的目标相冲突。文章提供了一种更好理解补贴影响的分析框架,以及对CFP下的基金计划总体评述,旨在解答欧洲委员会在绿皮书中提出的一些问题。问题的解答基于2种观点:海洋捕捞资源的开发最终依赖于可获得的鱼类种群水平,大量的补贴通过刺激投资动机使鱼类资源压力增大。忽视这种趋势的政策导致了无效和不可持续的捕捞以及公共基金的不公分配。虽然近年来CFP下的援助计划有所改观,但仍存在一些问题。未来对渔业的资助必需朝着可持续和有效利用的方向改革。文章对于了解欧盟的渔业补贴政策、增强渔业补贴经济学评价以及促进我国"强渔惠渔"政策的制定与实施等具有一定的参考意义。     

海州湾单拖网渔船技术效率及其影响因素分析

在渔业资源衰退、渔船节能减排、渔业产业结构调整等多重压力下,短期内海洋捕捞业经济增长日趋困难。渔业技术效率是评价渔业经济增长质量的重要指标,界定其影响因素有助于促进资源优化配置,提高渔业经济增长水平。单拖网作业是中国近海一种重要捕捞方式,本文以海州湾70艘单拖网渔船为研究对象,利用DEA-Tobit模型,分析其技术效率及其影响因素。结果表明,仅有20.0%的海州湾单拖网渔船处于技术有效状态;渔船主机功率、渔船船体长度、渔船船龄以及燃油补贴对其技术效率的影响不显著;年出海天数、船长从业时间和年总成本对其技术效率有显著影响。     

Climate change impacts on investment in crop sowing machinery*

A model of investment in crop sowing machinery is applied to wheat production under current and projected climatic conditions at several locations in south‐western Australia. The model includes yield responses to time of sowing at each location given current and projected climatic conditions. These yield relationships are based on wheat growth simulation modelling that in turn draws on data from a down‐scaled global circulation model. Wheat price distributions and cost of production data at each location, in combination with the time of sowing yield relationships are used to determine a farmer's optimal investment in crop sowing work rate under each climate regime. The key finding is that the impacts of climate change on profit distributions are often marked, yet mostly modest changes in investment in work rate form part of the profit‐maximising response to climate change. The investment response at high versus low rainfall locations mostly involves increases and decreases in work rates, respectively. However, changes to investment in work rate within a broadly similar rainfall region are not always uniform. The impacts of climate change on investments in work rate at a particular location are shown to require knowledge of several factors, especially how climate change alters the pattern of yield response to the time of sowing at that location.     

世界海湾比较下的北部湾旅游发展研究

海湾是世界旅游的核心吸引物和热点区域.本文采用案例比较的分析方法,通过比较孟加拉湾、墨西哥湾、几内亚湾、阿拉斯加湾、澳大利亚湾、波斯湾、泰国湾、加勒比海、地中海、越南下龙湾、越南芽庄湾、菲律宾海豚湾、土耳其波德伦湾、中国青岛湾、美国旧金山湾、墨西哥班德拉斯湾,认为北部湾具有打造世界顶级滨海旅游目的地的条件,要努力培育丰...     

Helping European Agriculture to Adjust — A Proactive Approach to Agricultural Policy

Helping European Agriculture to Adjust - A Proactive Approach to Agricultural Policy
In the European Union the next five to ten years are likely to witness continued pressures for agricultural policy reform. If cost-effective ways of dealing with adjustment issues can be identified, reform may be less difficult to achieve. This article looks at the economic, equity and political arguments for providing adjustment assistance to farmers. Compensation for changes in policy has a role to play, but if poorly designed can inhibit structural change. A review of how farmers have reacted to policy reform in a number of OECD countries concludes that their ability to adapt is often under-estimated, but that two characteristics are particularly important in facilitating change. The first is effectively functioning factor markets, particularly the market for land, and the second is the quality of human capital. These characteristics should be the primary focus of public policy to facilitate adjustment. The policies we propose would satisfy the Green Box requirements of the WTO that payments to farmers be minimally production and trade distorting. By establishing the conditions under which adapting to change is made easier, agricultural policy becomes sustainable, since adjustment is a process that is not limited to any single round of policy reform.     

PROTECTION STRATEGIES FOR AUSTRALIA

The Industries Assistance Commission and the Green Paper on Rural Policy support different protection strategies. Both strategies allow the achievement of a pattern of protection consistent with Pareto-efficiency. The Green Paper on Manufacturing proposed an approach to tariffs that would perpetuate inefficient resource allocation. The argument of the lAC and the Green Papers on protection policy is examined. A programme of across the board reductions in protection leading to free trade, modified for terms of trade effects, is suggested. It is also argued that initial increases in assistance for low cost industries are not inconsistent with such a programme.     

Pesticide Use and Fish Harvests in Vietnamese Rice Agroecosystems

Criticisms of the Green Revolution have focused on environmental and human health problems associated with pesticides. Pesticides may also have adverse effects on wild fish and other aquatic animals in rice paddies that supply an additional source of food and income for some farm households and provide natural pest control. We use survey data from the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam to estimate the impact of pesticides on fish harvests from rice fields. The results confirm findings of ecological studies that pesticide use harms fish populations. However, fish harvest losses are small enough that ignoring them is likely economically rational.     

The dynamics of household beef consumption in Cameroon

Recent changes in economic conditions have introduced notable changes in household beef consumption patterns in Cameroon. While consumers are concerned about the short- and long-run effects of these factors on beef consumption habits, policy makers are more worried about the appropriate period necessary for households to make complete adjustments in consumption since this information is vital for planning production. Static and dynamic demand frameworks involving the Nerlovian partial adjustment (PA) model are used to capture the dynamic nature of beef consumption parameters. Maximum likelihood estimates of the PA model reveal that the conditioning variables explain 79% of the variation in beef consumption. Income, previous consumption, own-price and prices of fish and pork are jointly important in explaining beef consumption habits. Beef is a normal good with pork and fish as substitutes and chicken as a complement. Long-run price and income elasticities are greater than but not significantly different from their short-run values, suggesting that adjustment in consumption is fast with about 80% of the difference between actual and ‘desired’ consumption being completed in about 2 years. Projections show that demand for beef will reach 109620 t by the year 2000. giving an incremental total and per capita demand of 31 730 tons and 1.84 kg, respectively.     

Market integration of domestic and imported seafood: Insights from the Sydney Fish Market*

Australia has experienced a significant increase in seafood imports over the past two decades. Concurrently, Australian seafood producers have raised concerns that the low market prices of imported fish may negatively affect the prices of domestically produced seafood and, subsequently, the profitability of the Australian fishing industries. To validate this concern, this study examines the relationship between prices of domestically produced seafood and imported fish. Price data from the Sydney Fish Market (SFM), Australia’s largest auction wholesale fish market and fish import data are used for a cointegration analysis which is conducted using the bivariate Johansen test. Results indicate that prices of most domestic species traded within the SFM are not cointegrated, implying that they largely develop independently of each other. However, imported fish, particularly fresh imports, were found to be cointegrated with Australian produced fresh fish supplies traded on the SFM. Although the law of one price (LOP) was only confirmed to hold for some price pairs, the results suggest a partial substitution relationship between imports and domestically caught fish. This implies that prices of domestically produced fish within the Australian market are likely impacted by price dynamics within the international seafood market.     

Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve,and what would it require?

The current global food crisis has reemphasized the costliness of Africa's failure to achieve food security and poverty reduction. The instrument by which other more successful developing countries achieved these outcomes was a “Green Revolution” in agriculture. While previous research has provided largely discursive appraisals of the viability of an African Green Revolution, this article adopts a more rigorous methodology to address that question. First, an economy‐wide multimarket model, augmented with existing poverty–growth elasticities, is developed to assess the likely impacts of a rapid acceleration in food production (of the kind witnessed in previous Green Revolutions) on food prices, consumption and demand, farmer revenue, and poverty. Our results suggest that a rapid growth in staple production, together with more integrated regional markets, would reduce food prices by roughly 20–40% for consumers and 10–20% for producers among the major crops. This translates into a large rise in farm revenues, annual agricultural growth rates of 6.5% or higher, broader income growth and food security, and over 70 million Africans being lifted out of poverty. The article concludes by emphasizing the kinds of fundamental policy actions and resources that would be required for achieving these outcomes.     

Analysis of household attitudes toward the purchase of livestock products and fish in Cameroon

The need for additional information on household demand for meat and fish in Cameroon is addressed. Probit analysis involving the Heckman selectivity correction procedure is used to estimate the effects of individual and household characteristics on demand for beef, chicken, pork and fish. Results indicate that fish is a relative necessity in Cameroon and is often substituted for beef and chicken by households whose profiles include being of low income levels, having large household sizes, are of middle age and are less educated. Whereas chicken and pork substitute each other, they are each complementary to beef. The profiles of households likely to purchase beef include being married, middle age, educated and of the Muslim faith. Profiles for households most likely to increase their purchases of chicken include being of high income levels and are public sector employed. Some policy implications are provided.     

Green Agriculture: foundations for biodiverse,resilient and productive agricultural systems

There are many visions on how to achieve a sustainable agriculture that provides enough food and ecosystem services for present and future generations in an era of climate change, increasing costs of energy, social unrest, financial instability and increasing environmental degradation. New agricultural systems that are able to confront the challenges of a rapidly changing world require a minimum of ten attributes that constitute the defining elements of a Green Agriculture. A major challenge is to identify a set of thresholds that any agricultural production strategy must meet, beyond which unsustainable trends caused by the farming technologies would lead to tipping-point phenomena. Only those styles of agriculture that meet the established threshold criteria while advancing rural communities towards food, energy and technological sovereignty would be considered viable forms of Green Agriculture. Considering the diversity of ecological, socio-economic, historical and political contexts in which agricultural systems have developed and are evolving in, it is only wise to define a set of flexible and locally adaptable principles and boundaries of sustainability and resiliency for the agroecosystems of the immediate future.     

Joint estimation using revealed and stated preference data: An application using a national forest

We combine contingent behaviour with travel cost data to estimate the change in the recreational use value of a National Forest due to quality and price changes. Instead of the usual improvement scenario, a hypothetical deterioration in the conditions of the forest due to a fire is considered. A dataset containing five observations for each respondent enabled the estimation of three models for which the number of scenarios differed. The results show that visitors are sensitive to price and quality changes and that in the forest fire scenario the intended number of trips would be reduced and that respondents would experience a welfare loss. Signs of inconsistency between preferences expressed by revealed and intended behaviour were found. This research also provides some indications that strategic bias affects answers to price changes.     

Sport and Commercial Fishing Allocations for the Atlantic Salmon Fisheries of the Miramichi River

The Atlantic salmon has been harvested by both commercial and recreational fishers for many years on the river systems of the province of New Brunswick on Canada 's Atlantic coast. The commercial fisheries were closed and controls were placed on the recreational fisheries following the 1983 collapse of the salmon stocks. This management policy remains in effect. A preliminary analysis using a linear control model showed this to be an economically efficient harvest allocation policy on New Brunswick's Miramichi River. The analysis is extended to the more realistic nonlinear framework here to determine whether the harvest allocation decision would be significantly changed. Both fisheries are found to generate positive net economic benefits, although the recreational fishery is determined to be more valuable than the commercial fishery. Permanent closure of the commercial fishery is not indicated.     

退耕还林工程中应用参与式方法的尝试

退耕还林是实现我国生态建设的重要林业生态工程之一。在实施退耕还林中,指令性的管理方法难以充分体现农民意愿和利益,行政干预的方式往往导致事与愿违的结果,而参与式方法鼓励农民积极参与退耕还林工程,激励农民参与的积极性和主动性。本文通过退耕还林工程中应用参与式方法的尝试,探讨退耕还林工程中应用的可行性及效果。     

Nonparametric analysis of technical,pure technical,and scale efficiencies for food crop production in East Java,Indonesia

Nonparametric analysis of technical efficiency for irrigated farms in the Madiun regency in the west-central part of East Java, Indonesia is conducted using linear programming techniques. This procedure allows the relative technical efficiency for each farm to be determined and for inefficiencies to be decomposed into pure technical inefficiency and scale inefficiency and does not require restrictions or assumptions regarding functional form to be placed on the data. Farmers in Madiun generally are efficient relative to each other. Farmers operating inefficiently do so more often because of scale inefficiencies rather than pure technical inefficiencies. A majority of the farms operate in the region of decreasing returns to scale rather than increasing returns to scale. Farmer age, the level of diversification of cropping activities, and high school education were found to be related to technical efficiency in the rainy season under irrigated conditions. Other socioeconomic factors were not statistically significant. The results imply that inefficient farms use excessive levels of inputs, particularly nitrogen fertilizer. This is perhaps due to the lingering effects of past input subsidization policies, particularly of fertilizers, in Indonesia, or to risk-reducing behavior. The results also imply that current government policies to encourage diversification of cropping practices in Java may lead to greater technical inefficiencies in production. In addition, extension education targeted to younger farmers with low levels of formal education would improve efficiency.     

Wheat breeding,productivity and slow variety change: evidence from the Punjab of India after the Green Revolution*

Variety change and genetic diversity are important means of combating crop losses from pests and diseases in modern agricultural systems. Since the Green Revolution, genetic diversity among wheat varieties released in India has increased but variety change on farms continues to be slow. In this article, we define and summarise indices of variety change and genetic diversity for the wheat varieties released and grown in Indian Punjab during the post‐Green Revolution period. We evaluate the effect of each index on technical efficiency with a Cobb‐Douglas yield model after testing for exogeneity. Findings support the hypothesis that slow variety change has offset the positive productivity effects of diversifying the genetic base in wheat breeding during the post‐Green Revolution period. Policies that speed the rate of variety change and contribute to a more equitable spatial distribution of modern varieties could support wheat productivity in the Punjab of India, reinforcing plant breeding successes.     

Risk-matching behavior in microcredit group formation: evidence from northern Ethiopia

Theoretical models on group lending assume the formation of groups of homogenous risk types. Recent theoretical and empirical findings challenge this view arguing that when markets for insurance are missing, risk homogeneity may not hold any more and risk heterogeneity can be the optimal outcome. Using data from an MFI in Tigray (Ethiopia), this article examines the homogeneity hypothesis and reflects on implications for repayment. No evidence is found that supports risk homogeneity, even accounting for matching frictions. However, we also do not find an explicit link between the presence of risk heterogeneity and side-payments due to missing insurance as suggested in the literature. Instead, other trust-based social networks seem to underlie heterogeneity. Such social networks are often synchronized with credit groups and influence the probability of repayment under heterogeneity. The implication is that successful repayment rates in group lending need not arise only under risk homogeneity but can also arise under risk heterogeneity. Heterogeneity may also serve to bridge missing insurance markets in poor rural environments. MFIs therefore need to consider such local conditions when designing their lending schemes.     

Was the Green Revolution intended to maximise food production?

The evidence on yields, food-production, food-calories per capita, and declining levels of malnutrition in countries experiencing a Green Revolution are commonly cited in support of the claim that the GR sought to maximise food production. If one looks closely at the actual design of GR programmes (in India and elsewhere), however, it is clear that they were instead intended to boost yields and profitability in a small number of targeted areas. The underlying rationale for targeting was that achieving very high yields in such regions would persuade farmers to abandon subsistence farming in favour of commercial production, relying upon the market for the purchase of inputs as well as the sale of produce. In response to widespread criticism of the Green Revolution ca. 1970 for neglecting the needs of peasant farmers (as well as accentuating rural unrest), the World Bank and other donors began to direct more attention and resources to smallholders, but the aim of commercialising farming remained unchanged.