中美贸易不平衡及其与美国对华投资相关性研究

计量研究结果显示:美国对华直接投资与中美贸易之间存在长期的互补关系,尤其制成品的出口与美国对华直接投资之间具有显著的双向因果关系,制成品的出口是美中贸易逆差的因。因此,美国进入中国的FDI,尤其是进入制造业的FDI越多,美国从中国进口就越多,美中贸易逆差越大。这种贸易不平衡的扩大,主要是由于两国要素禀赋的差异和国际分工地位的不同,因而美中贸易逆差是结构性的,不仅不会在短期内消除,而且会随着美国劳动密集型产业向中国的进一步转移而加剧。     

美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率:实证研究

1998年～2003年月度数据计量表明，美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且，依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。由此，人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。美中贸易逆差主要集中在原料制品、机械与运输设备，以及杂项制品贸易上，造成美中贸易逆差的真正原因是中国在劳动密集型和资源易耗性产品对美贸易上发挥出比较优势，而美国在高技术产品对华贸易上由于出口管制政策没有发挥出比较优势。政策建议是，美国要想缩减美中贸易逆差，就必须逐步取消在高技术产品贸易上对华出口管制政策。对于中国来说，在鼓励出口的同时，应重视从美进口，采取以出口带动进口，以进口促进出口的贸易政策。     

人民币升值能够有效改善美中贸易逆差吗?——基于美国和中国统计数据的比较分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文从中国和美国统计的中美贸易差额数据和人民币汇率这一全新的视角对人民币汇率与中美贸易差额之间是否存在协整关系,以及人民币升值能否有效改善贸易收支进行了实证分析,发现基于中国统计的中美贸易差额与人民币汇率并不存在显著的协整关系,而基于美国统计的中美贸易差额与人民币汇率之间却存在显著的协整关系,且人民币升值在长期内能够有效改善美中贸易赤字。但进一步的短期误差修正模型表明,短期内人民币升值并不能改善美中贸易逆差,反而会在一定程度上加剧美中贸易逆差。相应的脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析显示,长期内人民币汇率对改善美中贸易逆差具有不可或缺的重要作用。这一实证结果表明人民币升值改善贸易收支的理论在我国并不成立,而在美国长期内却是成立的。     

反倾销与中国的出口损害——基于美国对华贸易反倾销案例数据的研究

本文采用1990~2011年美国对中国反倾销案件涉案产品的HS 8位编码数据,研究了美国对中国发起反倾销对中国相关涉案产品对美出口的影响。文章的结果表明:美国对华反倾销影响了中国对美涉案产品的出口,但这种影响只具有短期特征;美国对华反倾销申诉导致了中国涉案产品出口对世界其他国家出口的转移,而且这种转移具有持续性;以反倾销作为贸易平衡手段并不会改变中美贸易的长期失衡,由于美国对华反倾销降低了美国市场在中国出口产品全球市场中的地位,从这种意义上说,美国对华贸易反倾销实际上也损害了美国自身的国家利益。     

多维视角下美中贸易巨额逆差成因的实证研究

近年来,美中贸易逆差额不断攀升导致双边贸易争端此起彼伏,严重影响了两国正常的经贸关系和政治互信。美方将贸易失衡归咎为人民币汇率,而中方则指出两国贸易失衡的症结并非人民币汇率,压迫人民币升值的做法并不能从根本上解决问题,双方冲突和利益博弈行为日趋严重。在此背景下,作者以1990-2011年的美中贸易、汇率等相关数据为研究对象,从经济和政治因素出发,将人民币汇率、国际投资、全球分工、统计误差和消费储蓄等因素纳入分析,从多维视角对美中贸易逆差成因进行了定量实证分析。研究发现,美中贸易逆差的成因缘自美国、东盟对中国直接投资以及中国香港、台湾和澳门地区对中国内地的直接投资、双方的统计误差以及人民币汇率三组因素,人民币汇率并非美中贸易逆差的主要因素。在基于资产所有权的贸易净额统计方法下,作者对美中贸易的历年贸易净额进行了重新估算。美方数据结果显示,在美国报道的对中国的贸易逆差中,其数据统计被夸大;而中方数据结果显示,中国直到2006年才从对美贸易逆差转为顺差。作者认为,人民币汇率并非美中贸易失衡的主要因素,该问题之所以争论不断,主要是源于美方经济问题政治化的诉求。     

论中美高技术产品贸易失衡之“谜”

中关高技术产品贸易失衡是由中关两国在高技术产品上出现与其比较优势不符的贸易所致。21世纪初,中关高技术产品贸易失衡主要表现为中关信息与通讯贸易顺差,以及中国对美部分高技术产品贸易顺差转为逆差;美国对华技术出口管制对贸易失衡的影响在减弱,外商对华高技术产品加工生产工序的产业转移,成为失衡的主要原因。由此造成美国、中国、东亚经济体在中关高技术产品贸易中形成三方“互利”,但非“共赢”的利益分配格局。     

中美农产品贸易分析

新中国成立以来,我国农业取得了长足发展.中美两国同为农产品进出口大国,但两国农产品贸易状况比较复杂,对中美农产品贸易关系进行研究十分必要.本文在分析中国与美国双边农产品贸易现状基础上,运用显示性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数、产业内贸易指数对中国和美国农产品的比较优势、贸易竞争力、贸易互补性、产业内贸易程度进行了测算.研究结果表明,中美农产品竞争性强,中国竞争力较差;双边农产品贸易在一些领域具有较强的互补性而且兼有产业间贸易和产业内贸易的特征.针对中美两国贸易特点,中国应在发展中美间农产品贸易中审慎把握形势、进行科学决策、合理安排政策.     

中美技术密集型产品双边贸易研究——显性比较优势、产业内贸易与贸易平衡研究

资本技术密集型的机械及运输设备产品已经成为中美贸易的主体,且中国对美出口不断扩大。本文以该类产品为研究对象,借助于显性比较优势指数,揭示中美的优势;运用产业内贸易调整指数,说明两国间产业内贸易状况;运用产业内贸易失衡指数,指出该大类下对两国间贸易失衡起到推动和缓解作用的产品;借助于动态产业内贸易指数,分析中美间该大类贸易平衡状况的未来走势。     

美国对华“双反”调查特征与影响效应研究

反倾销和反补贴措施是当前全球贸易摩擦与争端的焦点.美国作为中国主要的贸易伙伴,已经成为对华发起反倾销反补贴合并调查最多的国家,中美贸易关系成为当今政治与经济的焦点问题之一.文章系统分析了美国对华发起反倾销反补贴合并调查的特征与强度,并从贸易限制效应与贸易转移效应角度,重点分析美国“双反”调查对我国涉案产品出口产生的影响.结果表明,美国“双反”调查对我国涉案产品出口产生了不同程度的贸易限制效应,同时征收反倾销和反补贴税是产生贸易转移效应的主要原因.     

美中在经贸领域的失衡“不是问题”

奥巴马总统对华进行首访之际，美中失衡问题成了讨论议程中的一项重要议题。但从很大程度上讲，对这一问题给予特殊关注并不恰当：美中两国表面上存在的失衡并不是十分复杂，且这一问题也并非过于严重。对双边失衡问题的密切关注会转移对进行必要国内改革的关注度，并有可能破坏国际社会在许多更为棘手的问题上的合作。     

Factor adjustment implications of a free trade agreement between the United States and Thailand

Changes in intra-industry specialization indicators are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may be experienced by U.S. and Thai industries from a proposed U.S.–Thailand Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Many industries experienced large increases in intra-industry trade over the 2000–2008 period. Ten U.S. industries are found to be candidates for factor adjustment pressures based on past experiences. These industries account for 38% of all U.S. imports from Thailand and 4% of imports from all trading partners. Results also show that nine Thai industries face possible adjustment pressures. These industries account for 9% of Thai imports from the United States. An FTA should result in a larger increase in U.S. exports to Thailand than U.S. imports from Thailand because Thai exporters face much lower tariffs in the U.S. market than do U.S. exporters in the Thai market.     

垄断竞争、产业内贸易与相对工资差距

本文首先运用理论模型推导出垄断竞争市场条件下产业内贸易与行业相对工资差距之间的关系。理论结果显示,当产品的产出技能替代弹性(高技术工人相对雇佣量的变化率/产出的变化率)为正时,产业内贸易将会扩大相对工资差距;当产品的产出技能替代弹性为负时,产业内贸易将会缩小相对工资差距。然后以中美工业制成品产业内贸易为例对该结论进行验证,计量检验结果表明,我国制成品的产出技能替代弹性为正,中美工业制成品产业内贸易扩大了相对工资差距。     

日本对华直接投资与中日垂直型产业内贸易实证研究

利用产业内贸易指数对1988至2009年中日贸易数据的分析结果显示:产业内贸易已成为两国贸易的重要组成部分,其中SITC 7类机电产品产业内贸易特征尤为明显。进一步分析表明,中日产业内贸易比重的提升主要得益于垂直型产业内贸易的发展。利用Fukao等人(2003)的模型对FDI与垂直型产业内贸易的分析结果表明,在FDI成本与贸易成本较低的条件下,当两国存在要素禀赋差异时,FDI会引起两国间垂直型产业内贸易。     

The measurement of intra-industry trade between unequal partners

Summary This note argues that the inadequacy of the GL index to correctly reflect the level of intra-industry trade in presence of trade imbalances may partly be due to measuring intra-industry trade between countries with large differences in economic size. Several adjustment procedures have been suggested in the literature but it is demonstrated that none of the alternative measures seem capable of eliminating the problem. A new measure of intra-industry trade is proposed in which the bilateral level of intra-industry trade is divided by the total number of products traded between two countries to yield an average level of intra-industry trade per product. This measure may also be applied at industry level, and in contrast to the GL index, it is highly correlated with the actual level of intra-industry trade. In studies of intra-industry trade, one should cautiously interpret the GL index since it may give a false picture of the extent and the volume of intra-industry trade. If the standard GL index is used, it is suggested that also alternative measures of intra-industry trade are employed to complement the GL index in order to correctly observe the true extent of intra-industry trade.     

Trade Costs and Intra-Industry Trade

Formal economic modeling of intra-industry trade ignores transportation or, more broadly, trade costs. Yet, as Anderson and van Wincoop (2004) suggest, trade costs are quite large. This paper extends work by Bergstrand (1990) that addressed intra-industry trade in the explicit presence of trade costs. In the context of a Helpman–Krugman-cum-trade-costs model, we derive four empirically testable hypotheses regarding intra-industry trade and trade costs. These hypotheses are investigated empirically using a cross-section of bilateral OECD Grubel–Lloyd indexes. The results are strongly in accordance with the hypotheses, indicating the importance of a more rigorous and systematic treatment of trade costs in the intra-industry trade literature. JEL no. F14, F15     

产业国际转移视角下的中美贸易摩擦

文章认为,中美贸易逆差近年来大幅增长,在很大程度上是由于发达国家国内产业结构调整,将大量劳动密集型产业和资本技术密集型产业中的劳密型环节转移到中国,实际上等于是把东亚周边国家和地区以前对美、欧的顺差转变成中国对美、欧的顺差,将它们过去与美国的贸易摩擦转换成为中美贸易摩擦。为理顺中美经贸关系,应加快外贸发展方式的转变,坚持合作共赢的原则,大力推进走出去的战略和实施出口多元化战略。     

Two-way trade between unequal partners: The EU and the developing countries

Two-Way Trade between Unequal Partners: The EU and the Developing Countries. — This paper analyses the intra-industry trade specialization between the EU and the developing countries between 1980 and 1992. It shows that EU intra-industry trade with the developing countries has greatly increased and that the traditional measure of intra-industry trade, the Grubel-Lloyd index, is inappropriate when applied to trade between developed and developing countries. By and large, the empirical analysis confirms that intra-industry trade between the developed and the developing countries increases with average and per capita income, and with reduced differences in economic size and capital-labour ratios.     

世界经济再平衡和美国套利

美国次贷危机引发了席卷全球的金融危机,长期的低利率货币政策和赤字财政政策是引发美国次贷危机的主要原因。贸易保护和美元贬值将是美国未来减少贸易赤字和刺激经济复苏的重要政策取向,在所谓世界经济"再平衡"过程中美国将会实现双向套利。作为持有大量美元外汇资产的美国最大逆差国,中国应该保持人民币与美元汇率的稳定,逐步减持美元债券,加快生产与贸易结构调整,推动国际经济体制和国际金融体系的改革。     

The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade

Within a gravity model framework, this paper will establish that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are complementary, using trade and FDI stock data on a bilateral basis between the U.S. and 51 other countries over the period 1982 to 1994. U.S. outward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. exports than does inward FDI. On the other hand, inward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. imports than does U.S. outward FDI. These results are directly linked to patterns of intrafirm trade within the multinational enterprise (MNE), a result consistent with the transactions cost theory of MNEs. In addition, a sectoral analysis indicates that U.S. outward FDI in manufacturing has a large predicted impact on both exports and imports, whereas U.S. outward FDI in services has a large predicted impact on U.S. exports but little or no predicted impact on imports. Detailed comments and suggestions were provided by Joe Daniels, Albert Berry, and seminar participants at the University of Toronto, York University, Industry Canada, and the 1999 annual Canadian Economics Association meeting. Research assistance was provided by George Georgopoulos and Anthony Yao. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

Tests of the empirical classification of horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade

Tests of the Empirical Classification of Horizontal and Vertical IntraIndustry Trade. — Using longitudinal data this paper shows the separation of international trade in (a) inter-industry trade, (b) horizontal intra-industry trade, and (c) vertical intra-industry trade used in the empirical trade literature to be non-stable at the individual product level. The high level of vertical intra-industry trade mentioned in the empirical literature probably covers up many products shifting between e.g. vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade. The paper therefore questions the work of the last decade in the measurement of intra-industry trade.