Simple technical trading rules of stock returns: evidence from 1987 to 1998 in Chile

This paper tests two of the simplest and most popular trading rules — moving average and trading range break-out — in the Chilean stock market. Overall, our results are similar to the ones of Brock et al. (1992), providing strong support for the technical strategies. In fact, buy signals consistently generate higher returns than sell signals. Moreover, returns following sell signals are negative, which is not easily explained by any of the currently existing equilibrium models. However, we do not observe any difference regarding the risk for the signs of buys and sells, a result explained by the fact that the Chilean stock market is highly concentrated and illiquid.     

From carry trades to curvy trades

Traditional carry trade strategies are based on differences in short-term interest rates, neglecting any other information embedded in yield curves. We derive return distributions of currency portfolios, where the signals to buy and sell currencies are based on summary measures of the yield curve. We find that a strategy based on the relative curvature factor, the curvy trade, yields higher Sharpe ratios and a smaller return skewness than traditional carry strategies. Curvy trades build less upon the typical carry currencies and are hence less susceptible to crash risk. In line with that, standard pricing factors of traditional carry returns fail to explain curvy trade returns.     

Further Mining the Predictability of Moving Averages: Evidence from the US Stock Market

Most studies on the predictability of moving average (MA) technical analysis use the discrete (buy/sell) trading recommendations. However, it is possibly incomplete or unreliable to explore the predictability of MA by only employing its generated trading signals. To further explore the forecastability of MA, we study its measurable impact on the stock market returns by using a conventional predictive regression framework. Our empirical study on the US stock market with respect to more detailed price information finds, (i) that the proposed predictor, MADP (MA based on daily prices) shows significant predictability in‐ and out‐of‐sample, and significantly outperforms the historical average (HA) benchmark as well as the MA based on monthly prices, (ii) that the predictability of MADP centers on the short‐term lags (within the most recent 10 days) and disappears when lags are beyond 20 days, and (iii) that the economic evaluation of the portfolios based on trading strategies confirms the superior performance of MADP with short‐term lags against the benchmark even though considering transaction costs.     

Market Timing With Moving Averages

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy has a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance compared to buying and holding the underlying asset using monthly returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, and momentum, and seven international markets as well as 18,000 individual US stocks. The MA strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 3–7% per year after transaction costs. The performance of the MA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the default premium, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the MA strategy.     

Trading under the proof-of-stake protocol – A continuous-time control approach

We develop a continuous-time control approach to optimal trading in a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchain, formulated as a consumption-investment problem that aims to strike the optimal balance between a participant's (or agent's) utility from holding/trading stakes and utility from consumption. We present solutions via dynamic programming and the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equations. When the utility functions are linear or convex, we derive close-form solutions and show that the bang-bang strategy is optimal (i.e., always buy or sell at full capacity). Furthermore, we bring out the explicit connection between the rate of return in trading/holding stakes and the participant's risk-adjusted valuation of the stakes. In particular, we show when a participant is risk-neutral or risk-seeking, corresponding to the risk-adjusted valuation being a martingale or a sub-martingale, the optimal strategy must be to either buy all the time, sell all the time, or first buy then sell, and with both buying and selling executed at full capacity. We also propose a risk-control version of the consumption-investment problem; and for a special case, the “stake-parity” problem, we show a mean-reverting strategy is optimal.     

The Market Timing Power of Moving Averages: Evidence from US REITs and REIT Indexes

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy dominates buying and holding the underlying asset in a mean‐variance sense using monthly returns of value‐weighted and equal‐weighted US REIT indexes over the period January 1980 until December 2010. The abnormal returns are largely insensitive to the four Carhart factors and produce economically and statistically significant alphas of between 10 and 15% per year after transaction costs. This performance is robust to different lags of the MA and in subperiods while investor sentiment, liquidity risks, business cycles, up and down markets, and the default spread cannot fully account for its performance. The MA strategy works just as well with randomly generated returns and bootstrapped returns. The substantial market timing ability of the MA strategy appears to be the main driver of the abnormal returns. The returns to the MA strategy resemble the returns of an imperfect at‐the‐money protective put strategy relative to the underlying portfolio. The lagged signal to switch has substantial predictive power over the subsequent return of the REIT index. The MA strategy avoids the sharp downturn at the beginning of 2008 and substantially outperforms the cumulative returns of the buy‐and‐hold strategy using all of the 20 REIT indexes. The results from applying the MA strategy with 274 individual REITs largely corroborate the findings for the REIT indexes.     

Price impact asymmetry of futures trades: Trade direction and trade size

By analyzing the high-quality intraday transaction dataset of KOSPI200 index futures contracts, one of the most actively traded index futures products in the world, this study examines price impact asymmetry between buyer- and seller-initiated trades and the difference in information content across the size of trades. To measure the permanent price impact incurred by each futures trade, which can be translated into the quality of information content of each trade, we use a modified version of the MRR model (Madhavan et al., 1997), which is appropriate for gauging the price impact and information content as well as analyzing the intraday price discovery issues that arise in purely order-driven markets.Consistent with the empirical results of previous studies on market microstructure issues in Korea's index derivatives market (i.e., KOSPI200 index futures and options market), we find that large trades generally incur greater permanent price impacts than small trades. This indicates that large trades generally have greater information content than the smaller ones. However, in contrast to the majority of empirical studies in this area, which have reported that buy trades are more informative than sell trades in global financial markets, we find that the permanent price impact of seller-initiated trades is clearly and substantially larger than that of buyer-initiated trades in the KOSPI200 futures market. This indicates that sell trades are more informed than buy trades in the index futures market, where informed investors can freely submit sell orders without any restrictions. The greater information content of sell trades is also apparent when trades are classified by their size. These results are quite remarkable considering that the sample period of this study (2003–2006) corresponds to a recovery period, during which the underlying stock index price and the futures price continued to increase.     

It’s never the same: the role of homogeneity in online services

This research aims to study the differences between services sold on the Internet, based on their degree of homogeneity. While travel services are mostly sold online, other customizable services do not enjoy the same success. We carry out an empirical study based on declared intentions, risk perceptions, and actual purchasing behavior. The main findings show that: the degree of homogeneity is an adequate segmentation variable for online services; homogeneous services seem more suited to e-commerce than non-homogeneous services; a relation exists between perceived risk and intention to buy services online; and the scope of some traditional classification variables needs narrowing.     

Conceptualizing the Evolution and Future of Advertising

Technology has irreversibly changed the way that firms identify who is more likely to buy, what they are more likely to buy, when they are more likely to buy, why they are likely to buy, and how they are likely to buy, repurchase, and recommend. It is now easier than ever for firms to have a body of evidence in the form of actual insights, as opposed to having mere guestimates, on consumers' apparent intentions to buy. Power dynamics have changed in the marketing climate, and firms have to factor in not only aggressive competitors but also empowered customers with limited attention spans. In such a climate, what lies in the future for advertising? And how can marketing managers make the most of the changing climate and maximize their returns on advertising? How can academics advance research related to maximizing the effectiveness and efficiency of advertising? These are the questions that this article addresses via an integrated framework that expounds all the factors related to customers, firms, technological environment, and data resources, as well as the contextual factors, including product life cycle, customer life cycle, and so on, and their collective impact on advertising strategy, which includes advertising content, media selection, message, and targeting.     

Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets

We examine the trading strategies of mutual funds in emerging markets. We develop a method for disentangling the behavior of fund managers from that of underlying investors. For both managers and investors, we strongly reject the null hypothesis of no momentum trading: mutual funds systematically sell losers and buy winners. Selling current losers and buying current winners is stronger during crises, and equally strong for managers and investors. Selling past losers and buying past winners is stronger for managers. Managers and investors also practice contagion trading—they sell (buy) assets from one country when asset prices fall (rise) in another.     

Timing the Market with a Combination of Moving Averages

A combination of simple moving average trading strategies with several window lengths delivers a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance and kurtosis compared with buying and holding the underlying asset using daily returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, momentum, and standard deviation as well as more than 1000 individual US stocks. The combination moving average (CMA) strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 2% to 16% per year before transaction costs. The performance of the CMA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the market dividend yield, short‐term interest rates, and market conditions, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the CMA strategy.     

Is Petrobras Options Market Efficient? A Study Using the Delta-Gamma Neutral Strategy

This study aims to verify if the Petrobras options market is efficient in its weak form. For this purpose, this work tries to make profits on a systematic basis through delta-gamma neutral strategies using the firm’s stocks and options. In order to simulate the strategy as it would be used in the real world, we built order books every five minutes considering all buy and sell orders sent for both the underlying asset and its options. We apply the strategy when we observe distortions between implied volatilities extracted from the options. The results show evidence that the Petrobras options market is not efficient, since in 371 day-trade transactions (with an average investment of R$81,000 and an average holding time of one hour and thirteen minutes), 85% of the options strategies were profitable and the average return was 0.49%, which corresponds to more than 1600% of the highest interbank interest rate for the period.     

The Relationship Between Consumers’ Tendencies to Buy Compulsively and Their Motivations to Shop and Buy on the Internet

This paper presents the results of a survey of customers of an Internet clothing retailer examining how consumers’ preferences to shop and buy on the Internet rather than at bricks-and-mortar stores differ depending on their compulsive buying tendencies. Using shopping motivations such as seeking product and information variety, the ability to buy unobserved, avoiding social interactions, and experiencing positive feelings during shopping and buying, we find a positive linear relationship between a tendency to buy compulsively and Internet shopping and buying motivations. The research demonstrates that the items used to measure these motivations can also be used to identify buyers who have a tendency to buy compulsively. The paper also offers important retailing, managerial and public policy implications of the findings.     

Bidders’ gains and family control of private target firms

This paper examines the announcement returns of bidders acquiring private firms owned by families versus the returns of bidders acquiring non-family controlled private firms. The sample consists of 391 acquisitions of private targets in seven continental European countries for the period 1997–2008. We find evidence that bidder's cumulative announcement returns (CARs) are lower when they acquire family controlled targets compared to non-family controlled targets. We show that this result holds regardless of whether the deal is paid with shares or cash and whether or not the bidding firm is also privately owned. Moreover, the result is independent of the size of the acquisition relative to the size of the acquiring firm. Our findings are consistent with the notion that the bidder has to pay a higher price in order to convince the family owners to sell in return for giving up private benefits.     

BUY‐LOW AND SELL‐HIGH INVESTMENT STRATEGIES

Buy‐low and sell‐high investment strategies are a recurrent theme in the considerations of many investors. In this paper, we consider an investor who aims at maximizing the expected discounted cash‐flow that can be generated by sequentially buying and selling one share of a given asset at fixed transaction costs. We model the underlying asset price by means of a general one‐dimensional Itô diffusion X , we solve the resulting stochastic control problem in a closed analytic form, and we completely characterize the optimal strategy. In particular, we show that, if 0 is a natural boundary point of X , e.g., if X is a geometric Brownian motion, then it is never optimal to sequentially buy and sell. On the other hand, we prove that, if 0 is an entrance point of X , e.g., if X is a mean‐reverting constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process, then it may be optimal to sequentially buy and sell, depending on the problem data.     

基于农产品“最后一公里”流通模式的思考

为加快农产品流通、减少流通环节,降低农产品终端零售价格,解决"卖难买贵"的难题,最近各地推出了"平价商店"和"平价市场"两种新的农产品流通模式。在客观分析"平价商店"对抑制农产品价格效果的基础上,指出其存在的不足,并提出建立公益性农产品直销"零收费平价市场"流通模式的设想以及配套措施的建议。     

Demographics,psychographics, price searching and recall in retail shopping

Retailing environments have gone through physical changes and the Internet revolution which intensifies price search and comparison behaviour, however, what customer characteristics – demographics or psychographics – affect price searching and recall? Further, what changes the relationship between the price-searching tendency and price recall? This research develops a framework that integrates the views of the economics of information and psychosocial returns to address these questions. Through point-of-purchase surveys, this study finds that psychographics affect the price-searching tendency directly while demographics do so indirectly through psychographics. In addition, the price-searching tendency has a positive effect on price recall and this relationship is stronger when consumers buy discounted products. Finally, in contrast to previous research, consumers' high tendency to search for price and price recall accuracy and confidence are found.     

Scalability and robustness of a network resource allocation system using market-based agents

In this paper, we consider issues associated with scalability and robustness in designing a market-based multi-agent system that allocates bandwidth in a communications network. Specifically, an empirical evaluation is carried out to assess the system performance under a variety of design configurations in order to provide an insight into network deployment issues. This extends our previous work in which we developed an application that makes use of market-based software agents that compete in decentralised marketplaces to buy and sell bandwidth resources in a network that is partitioned into regions, each with a separate market server. We investigate the average call success rate and average message load per market server, as the number of markets are scaled up in a fixed size network. The same investigations are performed in the presence of single market failures. Finally, for both the failure and non-failure cases, a trade-off is found between their average call success rates and message load per server in order to find an optimum number of regions to deploy in the network.     

Robustness of size and value effects in emerging equity markets, 1985–2000

We examine the robustness of size and book-to-market effects in 35 emerging equity markets during 1985–2000. Mean returns for high book-to-market firms significantly exceed mean returns for low book-to-market firms. These findings are robust to tests that control for size effects and that remove extreme returns. Similarly, mean returns for small firms exceed mean returns for large firms. But, the firm size results lack robustness to the removal of extreme returns. Moreover, significant size effects are found in tests that define firm size relative to the local market average, but generally are not found in tests that use absolute firm size. Our findings are confirmed by cross-sectional regressions that control for systematic risk at the global and local levels.     

The performance of alternative futures buy‐write strategies

This study compares the performance of a conventional buy‐write (or covered call writing) and a dynamic buy‐write strategy. The conventional strategy generally enhances portfolio returns in low volatility conditions but underperforms the underlying cash asset in sharply rising markets. The dynamic strategy adjusts the moneyness of the option according to market conditions. The study extends Hill, J. M., Balasubramanian, V., Gregory, K., and Tierens, I. ( 2006 ) and tests how and to what extent market volatility and market direction affect the performance of these two strategies. The study finds that both strategies offer significant positive α, higher returns and lower standard deviations than the market. Consistent with prior research, the abnormal returns of the buy‐write strategies can be attributed to a volatility premium embedded in the options prices. The buy‐write returns from the Hong Kong market appear to be lower than those found in the U.S. and U.K. markets. The conventional buy‐write outperforms the dynamic strategy in both high and low volatility environments, and in sharply falling markets. However, by targeting exercise probability, the dynamic strategy provides a greater upside in sharply rising markets. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark