基于区间信息的综合评价技术最新研究展望

由于数据采集工作的非全面性、质度变量的模糊性、信息的不完全性等因素的存在,使得在很多情况下,我们无法始终都以点值为唯一形式对研究对象进行准确地描述和表达,而有可能体现为区间形式。文章基于区间信息的综合评价问题,对区间数据的分类与构建、区间数评价的基本概念与研究内容、对区间指标的构建、区间权重的求解、区间数的排序、区间数综合评价方法等方面的最新研究成果进行回顾与评述,在此基础上,对未来的研究方向进行展望,尝试为基于区间信息的综合评价技术提供一个初步的研究框架。     

基于区间熵的项目融资方式决策

应用区间熵的理论建立项目融资决策模型,通过计算方案区间熵值对各方案进行优劣决策。其优点在于能够更加科学地表达指标信息,并把多指标评价各项目融资方式固有信息的客观作用与决策者经验判断的主观能力量化并结合为一个复合权重集。算例表明其具有有效性及科学性。     

基于可能度的多混合属性决策方法

针对权重信息已知且属性值为混合型的多属性决策,对用模糊语言和实数表示的属性进行了区间化处理,从而把多混合属性决策转化为属性值为区间数的多属性决策。然后基于新定义的可能度计算公式,给出多混合属性决策的可能度法,通过民航实例说明方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于三参数区间数模型的第三方物流服务商评价研究

采用三参数区间数模型对第三方物流服务商进行评价,选取特定企业进行案例分析。根据专家的个人偏好给出三参数区间数的偏好序数,确定概率理想值,利用三参数区间数的偏好序数概率向量和评价的权重求出决策专家集合偏好序数概率向量,找出概率向量中的二元有序列组,并对序列组进行相同的置换,得出评价结果。     

权重未知的直觉区间模糊多准则决策方法

从两个方面推导准则权重的求解方法,用多目标的思想处理准则权重赋值问题,以估计缺失权重。同时给出直觉区间数的运算规则和记分函数,提出准则权重未知的直觉区间模糊多准则决策方法。     

权重与属性值均为区间数的多属性VIKOR决策方法分析

针对决策者给出的权重值和属性值均为区间数的多属性决策问题,提出VIKOR决策方法,该方法运用线性规划确定群体效益值与个别遗憾度区间,然后得到备选方案的折衷值也用区间数表达,基于折衷值的分布函数对折衷值进行两两比较,建立了可能度矩阵-模糊互补判断矩阵,据此对方案进行排序。最后以一个算例说明该方法的可操作性。     

复杂信任网络群组综合评价方法及应用研究

考虑评价环境的复杂不确定性、评价专家的信任行为特征以及群组专家的共识等问题，提出了一种区间Fermatean模糊信任网络群组综合评价方法。首先，针对区间Fermatean模糊评价信息的集成问题，提出了区间Fermatean模糊信息的运算规则，并在此基础上提出了一种区间Fermatean模糊Frank集成方法。其次，考虑到评价专家间信任关系对专家权重和共识达成的影响，构建了基于语言术语的信任网络以计算专家权重，同时设计了个性化反馈机制，进而构建了信任共识交互模型以提高群组共识度。此外，针对评价指标权重未知的情形,提出了区间Fermatean模糊熵权法获取指标权重。最后，通过高校商科类本科生统计设计能力的评价问题验证所提出方法的可行性和优越性。     

基于联系数的三角模糊数多属性决策新模型

针对属性值和属性权重都用三角模糊数表示的多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于联系数的三角模糊数多属性决策评价模型.通过运用集对分析的不确定性系统理论,利用三角模糊数的中值及上下确界所限定的取值区间,将三角模糊数转化为联系数,建立了联系数决策模型,并给出决策步骤,基于此可以对多属性决策评价问题进行排序.该模型的建立既考虑了三角模糊数的中值,又兼顾了三角模糊数的上下确界,即联系数的差异度,更具有客观性.通过对实例的运用和分析表明,该方法算理清晰,计算简便,结论合理.     

基于层次分析法的组合赋权方法的研究

在多属性决策问题的求解过程中,大部分多属性决策方法都涉及到属性权重的确定问题.一般可分为主观赋权法和客观赋权法.为兼顾决策者对属性的偏好,同时又力争减小赋权的主观随意性,进而使决策结果更加客观、可靠,本文以层次分析法为基础提出一种主、客观细合赋权方法.该方法基于属性值的规范化决策矩阵和决策对方案近似估计的区间判断矩阵,提出一种模糊线性规划方法确定属性权重.     

模糊群决策方法在中间商选择中的应用研究

企业在选择中间商时往往面临着候选伙伴评价指标信息获取的困难,为了使决策科学合理,采用群决策方法集成各领域不同专家的信息,通过语言变量把专家的主观判断转化为对应模糊数,建立相应的数学模型,并计算出用模糊数表示的候选者综合评价值。     

Multi-criteria Group Decision-Making Method Based on Intuitionistic Interval Fuzzy Information

For problems in multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM), this paper defines intuitionistic interval numbers, and the operational laws and comparison method of it. Some intuitionistic interval information aggregation operators are proposed, such as intuitionistic interval weighted arithmetic averaging operator, intuitionistic interval weighted geometric averaging operator, intuitionistic interval ordered weighted averaging operator, intuitionistic interval heavy averaging operator and intuitionistic interval aggregating operator. Then, based on intuitionistic interval fuzzy information, a method is developed to handle the problems in MCGDM. In this method, by applying the knowledge level of the experts to the decision making problem, the model of maximizing comprehensive membership coefficient is constructed to determine the weights of decision makers. By calculating the distances to the ideal and negative ideal solutions, the comprehensive attribute values and the rank of the alternatives can be obtained. Finally, an example is provided to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Magic odd numbers: The effect of numerical parity on variety-seeking

Numbers are widely employed to convey product and other marketing related information and thereby influence consumer judgment and behavior. Drawing on the literature of numerical cognition, associative learning, goal activation, and variety-seeking, the current research examines how numerical parity affects consumers' variety-seeking behavior. Across one Implicit Association Test (IAT) and four experiments, we demonstrate that consumers associate odd (vs. even) numbers with changeability (vs. stability) in their minds (Study 1). We further find that exposure to product and other marketing related information that is presented with odd (vs. even) numbers increases consumers' tendency to seek variety in subsequent purchase decisions, and that this effect consistently appears in the voluntary selection of a set of options (Study 2a), the preference for diversified products (Study 2b and 3), and the choice of diversified product bundles (Study 2c). We further demonstrate that desire for change underlines this effect, such that exposure to odd numbers (vs. even numbers) activates consumers' desire for change, which in turn elevates their subsequent variety-seeking behavior (Study 3). The findings of the current research not only contribute to the literature, but also provide marketers with effective ways to facilitate consumers' variety-seeking behavior, such as by strategically using odd numbers in their marketing efforts.     

The realized volatility of FTSE‐100 futures prices

Five‐minute returns from FTSE‐100 index futures contracts are used to obtain accurate estimates of daily index volatility from January 1986 to December 1998. These realized volatility measures are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and autocorrelation properties of FTSE‐100 volatility. The distribution of volatility measured daily is similar to lognormal while the volatility time series has persistent positive autocorrelation that displays long‐memory effects. The distribution of daily returns standardized using the measures of realized volatility is shown to be close to normal, unlike the unconditional distribution. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:627–648, 2002     

A Hierarchical Clustering Approach Based on Three-Dimensional Gray Relational Analysis for Clustering a Large Group of Decision Makers with Double Information

Two types of information, collectively referred to as double information, are usually required in management decision-making. The first is preference information expressed in a judgment matrix. The second is reference information expressed in a multi-attribute decision matrix. In this paper, we investigate large-scale group clustering problems with double information in group decision-making. We first establish a novel three-dimensional gray correlation degree index, which integrates the alternative decision-making vector, index vector and alternative preference vector, to fully excavate the correlation between decision makers with double information. We then develop a new clustering procedure combining three-dimensional gray relational analysis and the concept of hierarchical clustering. Moreover, a model for determining clustering centers is established on the basis of the maximum gray correlation degree within each cluster and minimum gray correlation degree among clusters. A heuristic algorithm for the model to identify the core decision maker in each cluster is proposed. Finally, we illustrate the applications of the developed procedures with a practical case. The rationality of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing results with results obtained using other methods, including the traditional gray clustering method and hierarchical clustering method with single information; i.e., preference information or reference information.     

基于正态混合分布的上证指数波动性分析

近年来,越来越多的实证研究表明实测金融数据的尾部往往厚于正态分布的尾部,并不服从传统的正态分布假设。而正态混合分布能够具有厚尾、有偏、任意阶矩等良好性质。因此,只有用正态混合分布假设下的GARCH模型才可以较好地解释上证指数的波动性。     

Pricing and hedging S&P 500 index options with Hermite polynomial approximation: empirical tests of Madan and Milne's model

The universal use of the Black and Scholes option pricing model to value a wide range of option contracts partly accounts for the almost systematic use of Gaussian distributions in finance. Empirical studies, however, suggest that there is an information content beyond the second moment of the distribution that must be taken into consideration.This article applies a Hermite polynomial-based model developed by Madan and Milne (1994) to an investigation of S&P 500 index option prices from the CBOE when the distribution of the underlying index is unknown. The model enables us to incorporate the non-normal skewness and kurtosis effects empirically observed in option-implied distributions of index returns. Out-of-sample tests confirm that the model outperforms Black and Scholes in terms of pricing and hedging. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 735–758, 1999     

资产减值与盈余管理关系的研究

资产减值(AssetImpairment)与盈余管理(EarningsManagement)始终是会计界关注的焦点之一.新资产减值准则对企业资产减值的影响,主要体现在扩大了企业资产减值的计提范围,明确了减值迹象的判断依据,使可收回金额的计量原则更具实务操作性,并作出已提减值准备不得转回的规定;引入了新概念,使信息披露更加完善等方面.同时,新准则限制了企业利用减少计提基数、变更计提比例操作利润的行为,相对完善了信息披露方法,在一定程度上遏制了企业进行盈余管理.     

Finding the future: Crowdsourcing versus the Delphi technique

When managers are unable to use quantifiable time series data to make forecasts or decide on uncertainties, they can either rely on their own intuition and judgment or resort to the insights of others. The Delphi technique is a well-known forecasting technique that relies on the pooled perspectives of experts to predict uncertain quantities or the outcomes of events. This relies on polling the opinions of experts, aggregating these opinions, feeding them back to the responding experts along with their own estimates, and having them repeat their judgment calls until some level of consensus is reached. More recently, however, the opinions of many others who are not experts have been sought on a range of topics in a loose assembly of similar techniques bundled under the title of crowdsourcing. This article compares Delphi and crowdsourcing as prediction and estimation tools for managers. It notes their differences and similarities, and provides a simple tool for executives to use in deciding whether or not to use these tools, and if so, which tool or combination of them will work best in a given situation.     

A new simple square root option pricing model

This study derives a simple square root option pricing model using a general equilibrium approach in an economy where the representative agent has a generalized logarithmic utility function. Our option pricing formulae, like the Black–Scholes model, do not depend on the preference parameters of the utility function of the representative agent. Although the Black–Scholes model introduces limited liability in asset prices by assuming that the logarithm of the stock price has a normal distribution, our basic square root option pricing model introduces limited liability by assuming that the square root of the stock price has a normal distribution. The empirical tests on the S&P 500 index options market show that our model has smaller fitting errors than the Black–Scholes model, and that it generates volatility skews with similar shapes to those observed in the marketplace. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark