中国数字经济发展水平的时空格局与收敛性研究

基于数字经济理论内涵,构建中国省际数字经济发展评价指标体系,运用熵权加权法进行测度,并借助探索性空间分析法、时空跃迁法、空间杜宾模型对中国2011—2020年数字经济发展水平的空间格局及收敛性进行实证研究。研究发现：中国数字经济发展水平呈逐年上升态势,且区域差异显著,呈东部地区高、中西部地区低的空间分布特征;数字经济整体上存在空间外溢效应和空间格局锁定特征,较难实现跃迁;全国及区域层面的数字经济发展水平均存在α收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,空间因素可加速其收敛,收敛速度呈东部、西部、中部地区依次减弱。     

中国数字经济产业发展的时空分异及空间收敛性分析——基于企业大数据的考察

数字经济产业发展对于推动中国经济新旧动能转换和质量变革具有重要的意义。文章基于数字经济相关企业大数据，采用核密度估计方法测算了2000—2020年中国285个地级及以上城市数字经济产业发展水平，分析了数字经济产业的时空分异格局及演化特征，进一步运用Dagum基尼系数法揭示其区域差异，并使用σ收敛模型和β收敛模型考察其收敛性。研究发现：(1)中国数字经济产业发展规模呈“U”型发展趋势，全国数字经济产业呈现“城市群带动、沿海大集聚—内陆小集聚”的空间格局。集聚热点表现为“东强西弱，南热北冷”，各城市群呈现“多核心集聚”的空间格局，沿海城市群连片集聚，内陆城市群离散集聚。(2)全国层面数字经济产业发展差异存在加速收窄特征，东中西部视角下，差异来源主要为区域间差距的贡献，南北方视角下，差异来源主要为区域内差距的贡献。除中—西部地区之间的差距近年来有所上升外，区域间差距总体趋于下降。(3)全国及各区域存在σ收敛、绝对与条件β收敛特征，且条件β收敛下各区域收敛速度更快，西部地区不存在σ收敛现象。     

中国金融科技发展的区域差异、分布动态及收敛特征

本文在把握金融科技内涵的基础上构建中国金融科技发展水平指标体系，采用时空极差熵权法测算2016—2021年中国30个省份的金融科技发展水平，并运用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、马尔可夫链、σ收敛和时空β收敛等方法分别对中国金融科技发展水平的区域差异、分布动态及收敛特征进行研究。研究结果表明，中国金融科技发展水平总体呈逐渐上升趋势，四大区域金融科技发展水平呈东部、中部、东北和西部逐渐走低趋势；金融科技发展水平总体差异主要来源于区域间差异；全国及四大区域金融科技发展水平呈上升趋势，绝对差异呈逐渐缩小趋势；金融科技发展水平较高省份呈自我强化态势；全国及四大区域金融科技发展水平呈σ收敛特征；四大区域金融科技发展水平的时空β收敛存在明显差异，东北呈发散特征，西部、东部和中部的收敛速度高于全国收敛速度，随着时间推移，各区域金融科技发展水平差异逐渐缩小。     

长江经济带共同富裕水平的区域差异、分布动态与收敛性

基于2011—2020年长江经济带地级及以上城市的面板数据,利用熵值法测度长江经济带共同富裕水平,并采用核密度估计方法与Dagum基尼系数揭示共同富裕水平发展的分布动态、区域差异及来源,最后利用变异系数和静态面板收敛模型检验共同富裕水平发展的σ收敛和β收敛特征。研究发现：（1）长江经济带共同富裕水平总体上呈上升趋势,三大区域共同富裕平均水平从高到低依次为下游、中游、上游。（2）区域间差异是长江经济带共同富裕水平区域差异的主要来源,长江经济带总体及上游、中游、下游地区共同富裕水平区域内差异均呈缩小趋势,各地区共同富裕水平的分布动态存在异质性。（3）长江经济带总体及上游、中游、下游地区共同富裕水平均具有显著σ收敛、绝对β收敛和相对β收敛特征。     

中国八大综合经济区包容性绿色发展效率区域差异、空间相关及收敛性研究

基于中国八大综合经济区2008—2019年的面板数据,运用非期望产出Super-SBM模型测度其包容性绿色发展效率水平,并采用Dagum基尼系数分解法、莫兰指数和收敛性检验模型探究其区域差异、空间相关和收敛性特征。研究发现：我国包容性绿色发展效率整体水平偏低但上升态势明显,八大综合经济区呈鲜明梯度结构特征;区域间净差异是八大综合经济区包容性绿色发展效率空间差异的主要来源;八大综合经济区包容性绿色发展效率自2016年空间集聚状态稳定,并形成东部和北部沿海经济区“高—高”集聚,东北、长江中游和西南经济区“低—低”集聚的分布格局;除长江中游和西南经济区外,全国以及其余经济区均存在σ收敛,与绝对β收敛相比,考虑外部因素的条件β收敛检验中全国整体及各经济区的收敛状态未改变,但收敛速度有普遍提升,不同经济区的收敛特征和其对外部环境因素敏感度有显著差异。因此,应立足区域协同顶层设计,因地制宜采取措施缩小区域差异,进而推动我国经济的高质量可持续发展。     

黄河流域绿色发展的空间差异及收敛性研究北大核心

基于1995—2017年黄河流域9省区的面板数据,先利用US-SBM分析模型测得各省区绿色发展水平,再采用Dagum基尼系数、σ收敛及β收敛等分析方法考察流域绿色发展区域差异及差异演变的收敛特征。研究发现:(1)流域绿色发展总空间差异呈下降趋势。上游地区绿色发展区域内差异相对最大,中游相对最小;下游与上游、中游地区绿色发展区域间差异均较大,而上游、中游区域间差异相对要小;区域间差异是总差异产生的主要来源。(2)流域总体、上游及下游地区绿色发展差异演化趋势均不存在σ收敛特征,仅中游地区存在一定程度σ收敛;同时流域总体及其三个分区绿色发展均存在绝对β收敛与条件β收敛特征。     

中国碳强度分布的地区差异与收敛性——基于1995-2009年省际数据的实证研究

通过利用IPCC的方法,估算1995-2009年中国省际二氧化碳排放量,并运用泰尔指数及其分解方法,对我国碳强度分布的地区差异进行测度并按照东、中、西、东北四大区域进行了结构分解;同时借鉴经济增长理论中的收敛性检验方法,对我国碳强度的区域差异进行了收敛性检验。研究发现:(1)从总体上看,中国碳强度的分布存在明显的区域差异,而且差异主要是来自于四大区域内部,其中中部地区对碳强度总体差异的影响最大,西部地区对碳强度总体差异的影响正在逐步加大。(2)运用面板数据和横截面数据的估计结果均显示1995-2009年中国碳强度的地区分布不存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,此外也无明显的σ收敛特征。以上结论表明中国碳强度水平不会自动降低到"稳态",政府对碳减排的政策干预将是必不可少的。     

基于形态属性的中国省域数字经济发展水平再测算

动态监测与科学评估数字经济发展水平可以为推动中国数字经济健康发展提供参考依据。基于形态属性，从信息经济、平台经济、共享经济、智能经济4个维度构建综合评价指标体系，并利用纵横向拉开档次法测度2013—2020年中国省域数字经济发展水平。研究发现：（1）中国数字经济发展水平在考察期内呈现逐年上升的变化趋势，且总体及不同形态数字经济发展水平的省域差异明显。（2）数字经济发展水平的主峰分布呈现明显的右移趋势，且存在显著为正的全局空间关联和局域集聚特征。（3）Dagum基尼系数分解显示，区域间差异是区域差异的主要来源。     

中国区域低碳经济发展水平测度、区域差距与空间收敛性研究——来自八大综合经济区的证据

本文采用“逐层纵横向”拉开档次法、“熵值”非线性规划法、TOWA-GA混合算子方法，首次以八大综合经济区的视角对低碳经济发展水平进行测度分析，并运用Dagum基尼系数和β收敛方法揭示八大综合经济区低碳经济发展的区域差异和空间收敛性特征。研究发现：八大综合经济区低碳经济发展整体上呈稳步向好的趋势，但仍存在总体发展不充分不平衡现象；八大综合经济区低碳经济发展水平的空间非均衡性特征明显，总体差异水平不高且呈波动上升趋势，北部沿海经济区的内部差异最大，东部沿海经济区和大西北经济区的区域间差异最大，区域间差异对八大综合经济区总体差异的贡献最大；八大综合经济区存在显著的空间溢出效应，且全国层面和东北、东部沿海、南部沿海、大西北、大西南、长江中游、黄河中游7个综合经济区均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛，北部沿海经济区不存在绝对β收敛，但存在显著的条件β收敛。本文研究内容对制定八大综合经济区差异化政策，落实八大综合经济区协同发展战略具有理论和现实上的参考价值。     

中国全要素碳生产率的分布动态、地区差异与收敛性研究

在推进绿色低碳发展和区域协调发展背景下,本文分析了中国绿色低碳发展的不平衡问题。通过构建全要素碳生产率评价指标体系,采用全局超效率SBM模型测算2006—2020年中国283个地级市的全要素碳生产率,运用Kernel密度估计和Dagum基尼系数方法考察全要素碳生产率的分布动态、地区差异和差异来源,使用σ收敛模型和β收敛模型检验全要素碳生产率的收敛性特征。研究发现：(1)中国全要素碳生产率整体上呈波动上升趋势,但是地区差异明显,呈现东部地区>全国>中部地区>西部地区的分布特征,并且这种差异呈扩大的趋势;(2)总体差异主要来源于地区间差异,其贡献率整体上随着时间的推移呈波动下降的趋势;(3)全国及三大区域全要素碳生产率不存在显著的σ收敛特征,但是均表现出典型的β收敛特征,全要素碳生产率最高的东部地区收敛速度最慢,全要素碳生产率最低的西部地区收敛速度最快;(4)产业结构、财政支出水平等是影响全要素碳生产率收敛速度的重要因素。本文最后从清晰认识推动中国绿色低碳协调发展的重要性、重视中国绿色低碳发展水平的地区差异问题、重视绿色低碳协调发展工程的实施路径问题三个方面提出了具体的政...     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.