微观经济学理论对宏观问题的解释

经济社会个体的总和构成经济总体。由个体的一般规律就有可能得到经济总体的一些规律。微观经济学的均衡价格理论分析了市场的需求、供给、供求均衡及供求变化对均衡的影响。当消费者收入增加时，需求曲线向右平移，均衡数量增加、均衡价格上升。当生产成本下降时，供给曲线向右平移，均衡数量增加、均衡价格下降。所以，促进经济增长、提高社会生活水平的主要动力是提高生产技术水平和管理水平。提高人们的收入水平也可以促进经济增长、提高社会生活水平，但会抬高价格，削弱人们的购买力。经济问题是相互联系、相互影响的。把微观经济理论与宏观经济理论结合起来，对有些问题的分析将会更加透彻。     

收入水平与公共品需求结构关系探讨

在影响公共品需求结构的诸多因素中,收入水平的高低为最关键,收入水平与公共品需求结构有着直接的关系。按照需求弹性可将公共品分为高端产品、中端产品和低端产品三种类型。通过对收入水平不同群体的效用差异分析,推导出均衡公共品需求结构的形成与公共品收入扩展线。理论分析表明公共品需求结构随着收入增加而逐渐由低端产品向高端产品转移,并在一定经济水平出现拐点,从而为研究公共品的最佳供给结构提供了理论依据和基础。     

收入因素与中国劣质品市场的部分逆向选择

基于Akerlof逆向选择模型,引入收入因素对其分析,通过说明收入因素影响消费偏好,进而改变消费者的无差异曲线,建立一个有限次交易后最终达到非零均衡的部分逆向选择的基本模型,并着重从这一侧面,即收入因素的影响,分析为什么在中国劣质品市场会长期存在。研究表明：购买偏好因收入增加而改变明显的劣质品的解决途径是增加人们的收入水平;购买偏好随收入增加改变不明显的劣质品的解决途径是增加外部干预。     

政绩考核、产业政策与社会结构——基于OLG框架的房地产一般均衡

本文基于OLG框架构建的房地产一般均衡模型,揭示了我国房地产市场泡沫背后的经济机制与政府行为。单一GDP考核使得地方政府存在扩大支出的强烈动机,为了解决财政缺口,地方政府会选择扶持房地产业的发展,这种对房地产业的过度扶持会扭曲消费者购买更多房产,从而推动房地产市场的价量齐升。基于这些结论,我们提出,中央政府可以从规制的角度出发,适当调整地方政府的考核目标,在原来的GDP单一目标的基础上考虑民众的收入水平以及收入平等目标。均衡分析表明,这种调整会改变地方政府扶持房地产的激励程度．从而有效控制房地产市场的发展。     

论政府职能转变与公共财政支出的改革与完善

公共财政在经济中的体现形式,是为政府提供公共产品和准公共产品,如教育支出、公益支出、国防支出等。满足和提高政府的公共服务水平和质量,公平分配、促使国民经济均衡、协调发展、改善人民的生活福利是公共财政活动的目的。为此,公共财政的职能范围将被界定为：保障政府的公共支出需要,保证公共收入的公平分配,保障解决基础设施、公益设施、基础产业等因市场失灵而必须承担的资源配置职能;调节总量和结构以保持社会经济的稳定协调发展。然而,要有效地发挥好公共财政的职能作用,必须保证一定时期公共收入水平（即财力水平）的增长。由于公共收入水平的增长决定因素较多,如整个国民经济发展和增长的水平、公共收入的征收管理水平等。所以,政府职能的有效转变和优化公共财政支出结构,是解决公共财政自身效率问题的重要因素。     

中国隐性收入的规模及治理研究

隐性收入在世界各国普遍存在,对收入差距、税收流失甚至国家财政安全都有重要影响。本文利用DGE模型法,构建一个包含正规经济部门与隐性经济部门的动态一般均衡模型,对我国隐性收入规模进行测算和分析。研究发现,1978～2015年,我国隐性收入规模从36.69%下降到13.25%,历年平均规模为21.71%,隐性收入总体规模得到了较好的控制,但其绝对规模仍然较大。资本冲击和税收政策冲击是影响隐性收入水平的重要因素,其中,资本存量扩大但未能与劳动力等生产要素实现合理配置时,将导致过剩的资本和劳动力向隐性经济部门流动,扩大隐性收入规模;税率越高,资本和劳动力从事隐性经济活动的动力就越强,隐性收入水平也随之提高。为实现对隐性收入的有效治理,需要进一步促进正规经济的发展,降低失业水平;提高我国经济的市场化和法制化水平,实现生产要素的自由流动,促进生产要素优化配置;优化税制结构,降低税收负担;提高公共服务水平,增强企业和居民的税收遵从意愿;提高税收征管水平,强化税务稽查力度,发挥税务稽查的"威慑效应"。     

旅游消费者均衡初探

与传统经济学的消费者均衡相比较，旅游消费者的效用最大化水平，不仅受货币收入水平的制约，还要受时间因素的制约。对于高收入水平的消费者来说，货币收入的约束是软约束，时间因素的约束则是硬约束；对于低收入水平，则可能相反。     

城乡居民收入差异透出的信号

一、城乡居民收入差距继续扩大 城镇居民的人均可支配收入和农村居民的人均纯收入是衡量城乡居民收入水平的两个最基本的核心指标。收入水平的两个最基本的核心指标。近年来，随着经济与社会的快速发展，余杭城乡居民收入水平不断提高，大部分家庭的腰包都逐渐鼓了起来。统计资料显示，2003年余杭城镇居民人均可支配收入为12918元。     

中等收入群体的住房困境及对策

当下我国房价畸高已是不争的事实,而中等收入群体此时的处境已经受到多方的关注.目前政府连续出台各项政策如<国务院关于深化城镇住房制度改革的决定>、<经济适用房价格管理办法>等都是针对中低收人群体.国内经济专家对中等收入群体概念的界定标准主要有3种,第一种,劳动社会保障部劳动工资研究所狄煌认为,中等收入者是指在一定时期内达到中等收入水平的城乡居民.收入水平是唯一的划分标准,而中等收入水平的判断标准是指比当前人均国内生产总值略高一些;     

贸易开放对城镇居民收入及分配的影响

本文运用2002年中国家庭住户收入调查数据,检验了贸易开放对收入水平和收入分配的影响。研究发现贸易开放对收入水平具有显著并稳健的正向效应。本文进一步验证了贸易开放对收入分配的影响,结果显示:总体来看,贸易开放对高技能劳动力的影响大于对低技能劳动力的影响;贸易开放对外资企业职工收入的影响大于对其他企业类型职工收入的影响;贸易开放对资本报酬者的影响大于对劳动报酬者的影响。因此,在某种意义上说,中国国内的收入不平等在很大程度上是由于开放程度不均衡,一些地区和居民被排除在开放利益之外造成的。     

An empirical characterization of the effects of public debt on economic growth

Based on a data set of 115 economies, this article empirically investigates the relation between public debt and economic growth. Using the World Bank’s classification for income groups, we initially find that those countries that present the lowest public debt are characterized by the highest economic growth, while the smallest growth rates are associated with the highest public debt. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyse the countries by income level: low-income countries have a different behaviour with respect to lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income countries. When using the IMF’s country classification, the results do not suggest a clear pattern in the public debt–economic growth nexus across different countries, but indicate a heterogeneous relationship between such key macroeconomic variables.     

Fiscal policies, environmental pollution and economic growth

This paper develops a model of endogenous economic growth with special consideration to the role of productive public expenditure and environmental pollution; and analyses the properties of optimal fiscal policy in the steady state growth equilibrium. We consider the level of consumption as the source of pollution. Government allocates its tax revenue between pollution abatement expenditure and productive public expenditure. Optimum ratio of productive public expenditure to national income is equal to the competitive output share of the public input, when productive public expenditure is depicted as tax revenue minus abatement expenditure. However, the proportional income tax rate exceeds the competitive output share of the public input. There is no conflict between the social welfare maximizing solution and the growth rate maximizing solution in the steady state growth equilibrium. The unique steady state growth equilibrium appears to be a saddle-point when the growth rate is above a critical level and the steady state equilibrium growth rate in the market economy is not necessarily lower than the socially efficient growth rate.     

Public capital,deficit financing,and economic growth in a stochastic economy

This paper examines the relationship among deficit-financing fiscal policy, risk and economic growth in a stochastic endogenous growth model with private and public capital. We show that there are positive balanced-growth rate and a debt-to-GDP ratio that depend on deep parameters such as the income tax rate and the standard deviation of the growth rate of private and public capital. Investment and fiscal shocks influence the mean and variance of the growth rate and the debt dependency rate through portfolio changes and capital accumulation. In particular, an increase in the risk of private investment destabilizes the economy and reduces the mean growth rate if the portfolio change is drastic, and this increase in risk increases the debt-to-GDP ratio. In contrast, an increase in the income tax rate stabilizes the economy, increases the mean growth rate, and has a positive or negative effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio according to the ratio of public to private capital if the income tax rate is sufficiently small.     

居民收入增长对公共支出的需求变动分析——基于中国1978～2006年数据的实证研究

由于不同收入群体的公共产品偏好不同,因此,随着居民收入的增长,公众对于公共产品的需求会有所改变,由此引致的财政支出规模变化应当是＂民生财政＂建立过程中需要重点考虑的因素。本文试图研究中国改革开放以来居民收入增长对财政支出规模的影响,主要从两个层面展开：首先,在理论层面,将财政支出分为不同性质的三类,并以此为基础分析居民收入与财政支出规模二者之间的逻辑关系;接着,对1978～2008年间中国的经验数据进行了实证研究,用协整检验和ARIMA模型等计量工具,实证分析了居民收入增长对中国公共支出结构变动的影响。研究结果表明：长期看来,随着居民收入增长,基础设施需求以及国防安全的需求趋于稳定;在短期中,居民收入的增长最能引起社会文教支出的扩张,其次为国防支出和行政管理支出,对经济建设支出的影响最弱。     

政府公共支出结构对腐败的影响效应分析

政府公共支出结构是影响腐败的主要经济因素之一。本文建立腐败的客观衡量指标,采用固定效应模型,定量分析政府公共支出结构及政府支出规模、市场化程度、教育水平、工资水平以及经济发展水平等对腐败的影响,研究结果表明:减少寻租性支出、提高生产性支出对腐败有着显著的抑制作用,同时控制政府支出规模、提高私有化程度对反腐败也有显著正效应;提高人均收入水平和经济增长率对腐败存在着预期的负效应,但在统计上并不显著;教育水平和政府公务员相对工资的提高不利于反腐败,这与大多数实证分析的结果相反。     

Public debt and welfare in a quantitative Schumpeterian growth model with incomplete markets

This paper quantifies the welfare effects of counterfactual public debt policies using an endogenous growth model with incomplete markets. The economy features public debt, Schumpeterian growth, infinitely-lived agents, uninsurable income risk, and discount factor heterogeneity. Two versions of the model are specified, one with households holding equity in the group of innovating firms. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy to match the degree of wealth inequality, the share of R&D expenditure in GDP, the firms’ exit rate, the average growth rate, and other standard long-run targets. When comparing balanced growth paths, I find large welfare gains in equilibria characterized by governments accumulating public wealth. The result is robust to the mechanism used to generate a highly concentrated wealth (i.e., preference heterogeneity or “superstar” income shocks). Welfare effects decompositions show that level effects and growth effects reinforce each other. The responses of both the intermediate goods and their market conditions are key in explaining the large level effects. The version of the model without equity is computationally easier to solve, allowing to consider transitional dynamics. Taking into account the dynamic adjustment to the new long-run equilibrium, I show that the transitional welfare costs are not large enough to change the sign of the welfare effects stemming from a change in public debt. I find that eliminating public debt would lead to a 0.8% increase in welfare, while moving to a debt/GDP ratio of 100% would entail a welfare loss of 0.5%. A decomposition analysis shows that growth accounts for approximately 50% of the overall welfare effects.     

Fiscal policy under a minimum‐time objective

In an endogenous growth model, we characterize the fiscal policy driven by a minimum‐time objective of economic development. We find that in equilibrium government should levy the highest possible consumption taxes, reduce public expenditures to the lowest possible level, and keep labor income tax rate and capital income tax rate satisfy a substitution relationship at the balanced budget constraint. We also identify the condition under which income tax rate should be set to zero. We further find that the equilibrium fiscal policy is equivalent to the growth‐maximizing fiscal policy, whereas it generally deviates from the welfare‐maximizing fiscal policy. We hence identify a circumstance where setting the policy goal of reaching an economic‐performance target as soon as possible cannot be justified in the sense of maximizing the welfare of households.     

公共支出范围:分析与界定

本文建立一个新的理论假设 :政府存在的天然合理性在于防范和化解公共风险 (在不同历史条件下 ,其表现形式不同 ) ,并以此为逻辑起点 ,提出了两个基本观点 :一是公共风险决定公共支出 ;二是公共支出的使命是防范和化解公共风险。在此基础上 ,本文构筑了界定公共支出范围的两种基本方法———风险归宿分析法和反向假设分析法。     

Corruption and public finance: an IMF perspective

Public finance should be a means whereby governments in low-income countries are able to increase economic growth and end poverty. Corruption, however, reduces tax revenue and makes public expenditure policies ineffective for achieving social objectives. The papers in this volume, which is sponsored by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), describe how corruption makes public finance ineffective in promoting economic development.     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries

ABSTRACT

We investigate the causal relationship between public debt ratios and economic growth rates for 31 EU and OECD countries. We estimate a panel VAR model that incorporates the long-term real interest rate on government bonds as a vehicle to transmit shocks in both the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate. We find no causal link from public debt to growth, irrespective of the levels of the public debt ratio. Rather, we find a causal relationship from growth to public debt. In high-debt countries, the direct negative impact of growth on public debt is enhanced by an increase in the long-term real interest rate, which in its turn decreases interest-sensitive demand and leads to a further increase in the public debt ratio.