Toward a new macrohistory: An extension to Sardar's ‘postnormal times’

How should futurists evaluate Sardar's announcement of ‘postnormal’ times? In contrast to existing images, what light does the postnormal metaphor shed on our global age? This paper views Sardar's postnormal times as embryonic, and extends it using ecosystems theory. To develop Sardar's concept as a macrohistory, Holling's adaptive cycle and panarchical systems are proposed as mechanisms of change that create postnormal times.     

Alliterative logic: A theory for postnormal times

This commentary responds to some of the issues raised in Zia Sardar's paper “Welcome to Postnormal Times” noting and attempting to explain points of difference and similarity. From Sardar's invocation of the 3C's of complexity, chaos and contradiction emerges the idea that our postnormal times might be likened to the strange times following the Great Plague that gave rise to the Alliterative Revival. Speculating further, it is questioned whether, in such strange times, utopian futures studies substitute for prayer.     

Postformal priorities for postnormal times: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

This essay is a postformal rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar's Welcome to Postnormal Times. I have no quarrel with Sardar's conclusion that these times are postnormal, nor do I disagree with many of his observations, but our standpoints regarding implications are somewhat contradictory. Paradoxically, rather than jump into an old paradigm form of debate with Sardar's interpretations of postnormalcy, this rejoinder is a playful postformal response. I celebrate our complementary views as expressions of the complex truths of multiperspectivality. First I question the meaning of normal and postnormal in the context of such notions as “the pathology of normalcy.” Secondly I begin to explore the postnormal circumstances from a postformal perspective. This involves discussion of notions of progress, development, evolution and co-evolution from different points of view as an opener to coming to terms with complexity. I then explore how concepts such as complexity and paradox can be understood as paths to wisdom; how active imagination can be engaged in the service of life; and how engaged imagination can unfold new normative narratives of alternative futures. Such imaginaries of hope are vital for the wellbeing of young people. The essay closes with a call to embrace the richness of complexity and play with—rather than fear—the paradox of planetary pluralism.     

Stock Price Prediction Using Prior Knowledge and Neural Networks

In this paper we investigate ways to use prior knowledge and neural networks to improve multivariate prediction ability. Daily stock prices are predicted as a complicated real-world problem, taking non-numerical factors such as political and international events are into account. We have studied types of prior knowledge which are difficult to insert into initial network structures or to represent in the form of error measurements. We make use of prior knowledge of stock price predictions and newspaper information on domestic and foreign events. Event-knowledge is extracted from newspaper headlines according to prior knowledge. We choose several economic indicators, also according to prior knowledge, and input them together with event-knowledge into neural networks. The use of event-knowledge and neural networks is shown to be effective experimentally: the prediction error of our approach is smaller than that of multiple regression analysis on the 5% level of significance. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Frameworks for coping with post-normal times: A response to Ziauddin Sardar

This paper is a response to Ziauddin Sardar's “Welcome to postnormal times”. It agrees that times are indeed post normal, and discusses the reasons why this will continue. The paper then suggests three frameworks for helping people (and managers) recognise and deal with these times: a four level complexity hierarchy, scenarios, and the purposeful self-renewing organisation architecture.     

The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name?

The term we used to describe the study of alternative futures is important. Disciplines and discourses do not emerge from a vacuum but have a history and a cultural context; and their names can hide as much as they reveal. This paper examines such terms as ‘futurology’ and ‘foresight’, and argues that to emphasise plurality and diversity the study of the future is best served by the moniker ‘futures studies’. It suggests that remembering the history of futures discourse is necessary to resolve the crisis of identity and meaning, and frequent fruitless reinvention, of the field. Finally, it presents Sardar's four laws of futures studies: futures studies are wicked (they deal largely with complex, interconnected problems), MAD (emphasise Mutually Assured Diversity), sceptical (question dominant axioms and assumptions) and futureless (bear fruit largely in the present).     

Reflections on the use of a dual-methodology research design to evaluate accounting and management practice in UK university central administrative services

This paper discusses the application of a triangulated research design in studying the cost-efficiency of central administrative service (CAS) departments in UK universities. The methodology is of particular interest, as it is a dual-method, mixed paradigm study involving two separate teams of researchers with different methodological orientations and, potentially, varying objectives. The political context of this project is also significant, given the climate of cuts in resources to Higher Education and recent moves to make universities more ‘accountable’, not least because the research was funded by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE), The paper reflects upon the philosophical and political issues that were encountered during a research process that encompassed different methodologies, but which aimed at producing a unified body of knowledge. The paper identifies three possibilities for this unified body of knowledge: that the dual approaches complemented each other; challenged each other; or ‘talked past’ each other as they were rooted in different philosophical and political ‘realities’. It is proposed that, given sufficient self-awareness and reflexivity on the part of the researchers, dual-methodological research may be largely complementary and overcome at least some of the obstacles that impede the formation of a unified body of knowledge within accounting settings.     

Is there a postnormal time? From the illusion of normality to the design for a new normality

Ziauddin Sardar's characterization of ‘postnormal times’ elegantly captures the mood of despair, uncertainty and insecurity in the West due to the multiple shocks of terrorism, economic recession and climate change. However, the prevailing mood in India, most of Asia and developing countries in general is confidence and optimism for the future. The label ‘postnormal times’ is inappropriate for resurgent Asia and other ‘emerging markets’. Similarly, these countries - as illustrated by examples from India - need more modernization and efficiency to save and improve the lives of their citizens. This paper argues that the seeming normality of twentieth century in the West was an illusion arising out of the ignorance and neglect of environmental and health consequences of unbridled industrial growth. The distorted assumptions of neoclassical economics are largely to blame for this. It is now time to pay back for those excesses. A new normality will emerge only by addressing these distortions and by creating democratic global institutions that can reflect the changed global balance of power of the 21st century. The intellectuals, opinion-makers and leaders of the world have to exercise their ethical responsibility and creative imagination to enable this new normality to emerge.     

Valuing the project: a knowledge-action response to network governance in collaborative research

The delegation of research to self-directed networks is a relatively new strategy to focus academic endeavour on public priorities. Networks involve policy-makers, knowledge producers and knowledge users in unfamiliar governance and management relationships. Here we reflect, as practitioners, on research networks as complex governance systems and on their projects as knowledge-action systems designed to deliver public value. Projects represent the currency in which delegated research is issued, but their conversion into monetary grants and awards diverts attention from their potential as boundary organizations or communities of practice in the production of societal knowledge and understanding. Recognizing and supporting projects as scalable components of enduring knowledge-action systems, rather than as transient instances of research funding, is key to sustaining delivery of public value under conditions of network governance.     

Incorporating futures research into regional knowledge creation and management

This article focuses on future-oriented knowledge within regional innovation networks. Concrete regional tools and institutional settings aiming to enhance knowledge creation and management in such networks are needed. To enable planning for the future, there is a need for regional visionary capability. Resource-based futures research may make an important contribution in reducing the insecurity that regions face in the turbulent environment. When foresight processes are not absorbed into the regional strategy making processes, ‘black holes of regional strategy making’ come into existence, and future scenarios are built without taking into consideration the path-dependency of a region.This article attempts to reduce the gap between futures research, on the one hand, and regional knowledge and innovation management, on the other hand. It highlights the concept of self-transcending knowledge—the ability to sense the presence of potential. It then introduces a new, systemic model for knowledge creation and management in regional innovation networks. Utilising methods from futures research in creating self-transcending knowledge in a regional knowledge management system is proposed as a fruitful way of enhancing regional visionary capability. The article thus advocates combining approaches and methodologies from futures research with those of knowledge management in a novel way.     

Hybrid knowledge integration using the fuzzy genetic algorithm: prediction of the Korea stock price index

This paper proposes the hybrid knowledge integration mechanism using the fuzzy genetic algorithm for the optimized integration of knowledge from several sources such as machine knowledge, expert knowledge and user knowledge. This mechanism is applied to the prediction of the Korea stock price index. Machine knowledge is generated by applying neural networks to technical indicators, while expert knowledge and user knowledge are generated from the evaluations of external factors that affect the stock market. Cooperative knowledge is generated from the weighted sum of these sources using a genetic algorithm. Experimental results show that the hybrid mechanism can provide more accurate and less ambiguous results. It means that this mechanism is useful in integrating knowledge from multiple sources for an unstructured environment such as the stock market. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accounting,New Public Management and American Politics: Theoretical Insights into the National Performance Review

Borrowing from the work of political theorists Sheldon Wolin and William Connolly, this essay seeks to provide additional rationalization for the expansion of accounting within domains like the public sector. We suggest that such an expansion is intimately linked to social and cultural transitions which have led political theorists to not only question modern political theory but to also recognize the political significance of practices like accounting to political theory. We contend that these same transitions also make possible expansions of accounting through New Public Management (NPM) initiatives like the U.S.'s National Performance Review (NPR). Seen in this way, accounting theory begins to move away from its traditional status as, in Foucault's (1995) terms, a “subjugated” knowledge and to take on a serious intellectual priority within political theory. A primary objective is to provide at least a partial rational-analytic typos useful in understanding the codetermined relationship between accounting and politics.     

The making of green knowledge: the contribution from activism

The paper discusses some of the contributions of environmental activism to the development of knowledge. The paper contrasts some of the main forms of knowledge-making that have emerged among activists and raises a number of questions both about the political and cognitive implications of such “green knowledge”. The general argument is that, in the future, new types of interaction and new spaces for communication will need to be developed if green knowledge is not to be incorporated into the dominant culture or reduced to ineffective forms of protest.     

Trust and the risk of consuming polluted water in Shanghai,China

It is commonly understood that political trust reduces public perceptions of various kinds of risk. However, this knowledge largely comes from research conducted in liberal democratic states, and so may have little explanatory power in China. Though it has an authoritarian government, China has enjoyed relatively high levels of political trust, and so is a unique case from which to advance knowledge about political trust and risk perception. We describe the relationship between risk perception and political trust in China through analysis of results from a survey of 5007 residents in Shanghai asking about people’s perceptions of the risk of consuming tap water (a key public good), and their levels of trust in the public water authorities. Findings reveal that political trust in general, and trust in the perceived fairness, honesty and capability of water authorities significantly reduces the perception of the risk of consuming tap water. This suggests that the inverse relationship between trust and risk perception applies regardless of whether a society is democratic or authoritarian.     

产业集群知识网络中粘滞知识的转移机理研究

粘滞知识在产业集群知识网络中的转移对于知识流动的效果有着极大的影响,决定着产业集群中技术创新能力的提升和产业集群结构优化与升级.本文分析产业集群知识网络的立体结构,剖析了产业集群的内部和外部知识网络中各节点的联系,探讨了知识在该立体结构中各个层次的企业、集群中的高校、科研机构以及政府部门等各节点之间的流动,从点、线、面、体的角度对产业集群知识网络中的粘滞知识流动进行分析,在此基础上得出结论,以期促进我国产业集群知识网络粘滞知识的转移.     

Futurist networks: cases of epistemic community?

This article analyses the concept of epistemic community focusing the attention on two aspects, which contribute to define this ‘actor’: knowledge and capacity of acting under the conditions of uncertainty. The link between these two issues and the ‘nature of future studies’ is considered and the possibility of considering some organisations and institutions as future epistemic communities is explored. The case of the World Futures Studies Federation is examined in detail.In 1992, Peter Haas defined an ‘epistemic community’ as follows: “an epistemic community is a network of professionals from a variety of disciplines and backgrounds, they have a shared set of normative and principled beliefs, which provide a value-based rationale for the social action of community members; shared causal beliefs, which are derived from their analysis of practices leading or contributing to a central set of problems in their domain and which then serve as the basis for elucidating the multiple linkages between possible policy actions and desired outcomes; shared notions of validity—that is, inter-subjective, internally defined criteria for weighing and validating knowledge in the domain of their expertise; and a common policy enterprise—that is a set of common practices associated with a set of problems to which their professional competence is directed, presumably out of the conviction that human welfare will be enhanced as a consequence” [1].In ancient Greek, the term ‘episteme’ has a meaning which belongs to the philosophical sphere; ‘community’ is a concept which comes from the religious tradition and, more recently, has been the objective of sociological studies. Epistemic community links the two terms to indicate a ‘new’ and in some aspects, atypical political actor. At etymological level we already have a first sort of indication with respect to what is meant: politics as a synthesis of religion (faith), sociology (the decisions taken by policy makers have consequences on the whole society) and philosophy (intended as Weltanschaung). The German term Weltanschaung means the idea, concept or the ‘vision’ of the world and life. It is the way in which an individual or a social group considers the position of the human being in the world and the attitudes and actions they develop on the basis of a particular vision of the cosmos.In addition to this formal definition, Haas identifies other characteristics: “members of an epistemic community share inter-subjective understandings; have a shared way of knowing; have shared patterns of reasoning; have a policy project drawing on shared causal beliefs, and the use of shared discursive practices and have a shared commitment to the application and production of knowledge” [1].This definition could be analysed in several ways with particular attention to one or more of the indicated criteria. We could assume that the expression ‘possible policy actions and desired outcomes’ is to be understood as the ‘long term implications, expected, possible, probable and desired’ of a decision taken or that which will be taken, and this would already represent a linkage between the policy, the futures studies and an epistemic community; moreover, usually ‘the policy choices concern consequences, which can only be partially anticipated’ [2]. This gives rise ‘to the desire for information, which is not so much based on purely technical knowledge but rather information, which is the product of human interpretation’ [1]. Epistemic communities, national or trans-national, are one possible provider of such information.At this stage, and considering only this aspect of the whole definition, we could argue that a network of experts active in the field of future studies would represent the perfect portrait of what we are looking for: a multi-person actor able to ‘anticipate’, using knowledge, various backgrounds and expertise. To anticipate, in this context, might be specified as to understand or comprehend global and local changes. In general, futurists work within the framework of complexity and uncertainty, try to re-define problems in broader context and attempt to comprehend ‘change’ using knowledge.An example could be helpful: the change we are experiencing in Eastern European countries appears as multi-dimensional: in less than 15 years those countries have moved from a

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socialist economy (closed and planned), to a

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‘Western economy’ (the so-called market economy), to a

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technological one as a consequence of globalisation and, lastly,

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to the learning economy.

The first step (socialist economy), recalls other sectors in which the ‘ideas’ were closed and planned. The society was divided into classes and the dominant concept was ‘war’. In this context, every single action was intended as a possibility to demonstrate the points of strength of a system: sports, culture and economy were part of the battle and the vision of the future was mostly influenced by the possibility to destroy or to be destroyed. Examples of these considerations could be seen in the choice made by the USA government in its participation at Olympic Games in Moscow (1980), the USSR’s answer in 1984 (Los Angeles Olympic Games) and the proliferation of nuclear holocaust movies such as The Day After. These ideas were strongly present amongst the people of the Eastern countries, but after 1989, things changed and ‘gradually’ the new paradigms based on ‘Western values’ and, for a few, Western lifestyles, emerged. Probably these changes caused shocks in the local societies, shocks that have had consequences also in the way these societies now see their futures. The third step, the shift to a technological economy, has been faster and wider, thanks largely to the new communication technologies and the Internet. In understanding and developing alternative futures for Eastern Europe, futurists have to take account of the fact that all the three economies exist side by side—Eastern Europe does not represent one or the other economies, it is a complex mix of all the three economies. This complexity is further augmented by the fact that Eastern European societies have not had enough time to understand their present in order to be able to desire possible, alternative futures. Further, economic competitiveness is now based more and more on the capacity to develop and apply knowledge [3]. Thus, futures of Eastern Europe are a function of its capacity to develop relevant new forms of knowledge. Futurists cannot afford to ignore this connection between the knowledge and alternative futures.Thus, the concept of epistemic community and the theory of ‘knowledge economy’ have a great deal in common. If we consider that the so-called ‘decision-makers’ are (in democratic countries) elected by the people, we can argue that that section of the people able to disseminate consciousness of problems, possible solutions and long term implications, posses a form of power. Without engaging with this power, we cannot shape viable and meaningful futures.Are there any trans-national networks of expert where it is possible to identify these characteristics of an ‘embryonic’ epistemic community? In some respect this could be the case of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), or of the Washington-based World Future Society (WFS) or, at regional level, of the Namur-based euroProspective or the Finland Futures Research Centre, where we have structured networks of the experts coming with different experiences, from different backgrounds, a common interest (to analyse the society from different perspective, but all future oriented), a shared task (to disseminate the use of futures studies not only as a tool but also as a way of thinking) and diversity in knowledge, which is what keeps them together. Moreover, for most of the members, the idea of knowledge economy is already their reality and the capacity to understand trends, possible (or even better) probable futures is the aim of their professional activities.If we briefly consider those organisations, we could assume that they already posses some aspects related to the concept of epistemic community: the WFS for example “strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future, membership is open and the Society includes 30,000 people in more than 80 countries from Argentina to Zimbabwe. Members come from all walks of life, they include sociologists, scientists, and educators” [4]. If the WFS’s main strength is in trans-national partnership and different backgrounds of its members, the regional experience that euroProspective is carrying out is mostly based on the construction of a European network of experts. The inter-exchange of ideas and a common ‘mission’ are the two elements, which could let us consider this organisation as futures epistemic communities. Another example, at national/regional level, is the one provided by the Finland Futures Research Centre; the link with epistemic community is offered by the activity and the nature of some projects of this institution such as ‘sustainable energy development in developing countries’, ‘Russian energy and global climate’, ‘collisions of nature and culture in transport policy’, ‘professional delphiscan, an expert system’ [5]—all of these projects or tools (delphiscan is a software) are aimed at producing a relationship between political power and future and knowledge power.There are several reasons why we cannot consider the WFSF by itself as an epistemic community. Perhaps the most important is that it does not have a direct link with the political power; neither does the Federation seek any kind of influence on public authorities or on the decision-making process. But in as much as the Federation is concerned with managing change, it could be considered as an actor able to help people and the institutions understand the on-going processes of change. In the coming years, it will probably be forced to become an epistemic community as it will be necessary to ‘represent and clarify the relation between knowledge management, ICT usage and experts in futures studies as mediators between the complexity of political decision and the tendency of institutions to became advanced learning organisation’ [6] and [7].We also need to study the role the futures studies can play in clarifying those ‘shadow zones’ between the political power and the complexity of the decision-making processes. In this respect, it has to be underlined that the demand for the expert advice is a common phenomenon in policy-making processes, at local, national and international level. All this processes have a concrete objective, which would offer the possibility to exploit the added value of a ‘federation intended as a sort of epistemic community’: the credibility of the futures studies and, consequentially, the credibility of the experts active in this field, depends on this. The debate and the progress of these considerations should be developed in a multi-disciplinary and trans-disciplinary way with respect to several subjects and research areas, but this is only a logical consequence of the ‘nature and the different backgrounds’ already represented in the Federation.A theme (which emerged during the conference held in Brasov), which allows us to identify a relationship between an epistemic community and the social needs is globalisation. While globalisation is difficult to pin down, it is quite evident that we are living through a phase of transition. But as futurists and a potential epistemic community, our goal ought to be to develop an understanding of, and perspectives on, post-globalisation societies. This suggests that we need to identify the relationships between an epistemic community, the futures studies and the organisations active in this field such as WFSF and euroProspective.The analytical tools offered by the concept of epistemic community seem appropriate under the current prevailing conditions of uncertainty and ignorance. Understanding uncertainty and bringing multi-faceted expertise and knowledge to analyse difficult problems and propose future solutions are the two fundamental characteristics of futurists. The constitution of a network of experts coming from different backgrounds is already a reality inside the Federation but, at the moment, there is no linkage with the traditional and democratic forms of power. To become an active epistemic community, the WFSF has to realise its potential and develop these much needed linkages.     

Genetic counselling: ethical mediation of eugenic futures?

This paper examines some proposals concerning the involvement of genetic counsellors in reproductive decisionmaking. This involvement represents the future situation as being shaped decisively by the “relevant” knowledge of powerful medical and other political interests. The paper deconstructs and reorders this proposed knowledge in order to make it problematic. The projected involvement of genetic counselling backed by claims of ethical expertise is rendered denaturalised and particular, opening a conceptual space for the emergence of other futures. An alternative future in which public communication, not private medical decisions, is given as the primary ethical focus.     

政治系统与法律系统对于技术风险的决策观察

德国社会学家尼古拉斯·卢曼的社会系统论和二阶观察理论所提供的社会建构论框架,有助于我们从技术、时间、知识、决策等维度厘清技术风险形成的复杂社会机制,促进我们对政治系统和法律系统中的技术风险管制活动进行反思性观察。政治系统通过政策性决策活动规划和控制技术风险的努力,本身也会导致决策风险,政治系统因此发展出令规制失灵而被社会遗忘的应对能力;法律系统内部发展出来的风险预防原则,其功能不在于增加社会的安全水平,而是作为一种程序性反应机制,吸收因科学技术后果的不确定性所导致的环境复杂性。     

Where would we be without them? Knowledge, space and power in indigenous politics

This paper considers the relationship between knowledge and power as it pertains to the political mobilization of indigenous identity. To illustrate this relationship, the paper reviews concepts used to map indigenous territories for the purposes of claiming land. Mapping requires any number of decisions about what to map and how to map in order to create certain political effects. Indigenous maps have been used as a means for advancing a variety of anti-colonial politics. However, mapping, like indigenous knowledge more broadly, is rapidly being assimilated into development policy by institutions like the World Bank. This paper considers how the very concepts used to identify certain kinds of knowledge as indigenous remain steeped in colonial power relations. That perspective informs my reconsideration of concepts of indigeneity, resistance, and territory in this paper. Without disavowing the tactical importance of mapping in advancing indigenous land rights, this paper concludes by raising a number of points aimed at advancing debates to develop a more critically informed cartographic practice.     

Data mining using a genetic algorithm-trained neural network

Neural networks have been shown to perform well for mapping unknown functions from historical data in many business areas, such as accounting, finance, and management. Although there have been many successful applications of neural networks in business, additional information about the networks is still lacking, specifically, determination of inputs that are relevant to the neural network model. It is apparent that by knowing which inputs are actually contributing to model prediction a researcher has gained additional knowledge about the problem itself. This can lead to a parsimonious neural network architecture, better generalization for out-of-sample prediction, and, probably the most important, a better understanding of the problem. It is shown in this paper that by using a modified genetic algorithm for neural network training, relevant inputs can be determined while simultaneously searching for a global solution. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.